Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading

Transcription

1 Representative Office: Mobile: Fax: Quartier La Galine, D99, Mas Martin, St Remy de Provence, France Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street, PO Box N3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a SECTION 1: FEED GRAINS VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN Experts on the corn market in the US are saying that the farmers are going to have to start making serious sales and shipments of their old crop corn in order to make room for the new crop coming in a couple of months. All this corn coming into the physical market is weighing heavily on prices and should certainly keep current corn prices from moving higher. The thing with the corn prices is that once it looks like prices have hit the bottom or if there is a decent weather scare then prices could certainly take a good run higher all it will take is the fear of higher prices to get some export buyers back in the corn market. It is interesting to note that almost all of the private forecasting services in the USA are estimating corn yields at a higher level than the last USDA forecast. Reuters came out with their yield forecast this week and are looking at numbers about 3% higher than the USDA. While 3% may not sound like much it a good chunk of corn when you consider the total size of the USA corn crop. For now, the weather still looks great for corn all the forecasts are for more and more corn looks like not too many reasons for corn prices to move higher in the short term. On the soybean side of things, we had higher prices this week for old crop soybeans with prices just a tad lower for new crop beans and meal. The higher soybean prices were due mostly to the August soybean futures contract coming up to first notice day and those futures trader who have to get out were all trying to get out and pushed futures prices higher. Reuters came out with their soybean yield estimate this week, along with corn as mentioned above, but they didn t make much of a change in soybean yields up 0.2 bushels per acre. The feeling of the experts this week is that, like corn, there is not much reason for soybean or soymeal prices to move higher in the near term there are just no good reasons for the market to be moving higher: weather is great, yields are up, farmers are selling what more could a buyer want. USA Crop condition report July 21, 2014 all in percentages Very poor Poor Fair Good Excellent Wheat spring Corn Soybeans Sorghum Winter wheat harvested Last week % This week % Last year % 5 year % Page 1 of 6

2 Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) $14.00 Steady x US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) $26/27.00 Steady x US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) $24/25.00 Steady x US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) $32/33.00 Steady x US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT $26/27.00 Steady x US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) $30/31.00 Steady x US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t $43/44.00 Up $2.00 x US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 $27/28.00 Steady x US Gulf Yemen 35/ $42/43.00 Steady x US Gulf Japan: Panamax(10,000 disch) $41/42.00 Up $1.00 x US Gulf China: Panamax(8,000 disch) $41/42.00 Up $1.00 x US PNW Asia: 35/45,000 m/t $32/34.00 Steady x US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t(10,000 disch) $24/25.00 Up $1.00 x US PNW China: 50,000+ m/t(8,000 d1sch) $23/24.00 Up $1.00 x France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) $21.00 Down $1.00 x France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) $22.00 Down $1.00 X France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t $39.00 Down $1.00 X France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) $19.00 Down $1.00 x France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) $24.00 Down $1.00 X France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 $31.00 Down $1.00 X Argentina to Europe: 60,000 m/t $19/20.00 Steady x Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) $29/30.00 Steady x Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) $31/32.00 Steady x Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) $28/29.00 Steady x Argentina to Saudi Arabia $41.00 Steady x Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) $29/30.00 Down $1.00 x Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t $30/31.00 Steady x Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with topoff $40/42.00 Steady x Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t $30/31.00 Steady x Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t $34/35.00 Steady x Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t $24/25.00 Steady x Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t $30/31.00 Steady x Brazil to Europe $25.00 Steady x Black Sea to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) $15/16.00 Steady x Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) $19/20.00 Steady x Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) $17/18.00 Up $1.00 x Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) $12/13.00 Steady x Black Sea to East Med: coaster $35/37.00 Steady x Black Sea to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t $45/47.00 Steady x Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t (6,000 disch) $11/12.00 Up $1.00 x Black Sea to Saudi Arabia Jeddah 50k $21/22.00 Steady x Baltic Dry Index 739 Up 7 X Baltic Capesize Index 1193 Down 42 X Baltic Panamax Index 606 Up 20 X Baltic Supramax Index 679 Up 20 X Baltic Handisize Index 357 Down 15 x Page 2 of 6

3 FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons: All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise (NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.) Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA USD 236/255 Aug/Oct x Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein USD 293/307 Aug/Oct x Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t USD 230/238 Aug/Sep x Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t USD 240/246 Aug/Sep x Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port USD 247/249 Aug/Sep x Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver USD 270/276 Dec/Jan 2015 x Wheat, feed, Black Sea USD 210/215 Aug/Sep x Wheat Bran, Black Sea USD 200/205 Aug/Sep x Barley, France, Rouen port USD 204/206 Aug/Sep x Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver USD 220/225 Dec/Jan 2015 x Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ USD 210/215 Aug/Sep x Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest USD 280/285 Jul/Sep x Corn, FOB NOLA USA USD 196/198 Aug/Oct X Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest USD 203/206 Aug/Oct X Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver USD 188/192 Aug/Oct x Corn, FOB Brazil port USD 180/185 Aug/Oct x Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t USD 178/185 Oct/Nov new crop X Corn, FOB France USD 223/231 Aug/Sep X Corn, FOB Romania USD 198/205 Sep/Oct new crop x Sorghum, FOB Texas USD 223/225 Aug/Sept x Sorghum, FOB Argentina port USD 155/165 Aug/Oct x Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA USD 5145>>485 Aug>>Oct x Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam USD 565>>535 Aug>>Oct x Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam USD 508>>497 Aug>>Oct x Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina USD 460>>410 Aug>>Oct x Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam USD 503>>490 Aug>>Oct x Soymeal, FOB Brazil USD 460>>430 Aug>>Oct x Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB USD 600/620 x Soybeans, FOB NOLA USD 490>>450 Aug>>Oct x Soybeans, Argentina, FOB USD 485>>445 Aug>>Oct X Soybeans, Brazil, FOB USD 505>>460 Aug>>Oct x Soybeans, Rotterdam USD 555>>540 Aug>>Oct x Soybeans, Black Sea USD 450/470 Sep/Oct x Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA USD 705/720 m/t Aug/Oct x Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA USD 178/185 m/t Aug/Oct x DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA USD 186/190 m/t Aug/Oct X DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia USD 260/265 m/t Aug/Oct x DDGS corn, France, at producer USD 315/321 m/t Sep/Oct x DDGS corn, Rotterdam USD 312/318 m/t Sep/Oct x DDGS wheat, France, at producer USD 318/325 m/t Sep/Oct x Page 3 of 6

4 The major news story in the corn byproduct markets this week is the new requirement from China for a USDA issued DDGS certificate certifying that shipments are free from MIR162 corn. Unfortunately this type of certification is not available from the USDA in the US. The USDA does not check export shipments for any GMO traits since this is not one of their responsibilities. Exports can be analyzed by independent labs but this is not what China requires. There are probably a significant number of shipments of DDGS enroute to China that will be affected by this new requirement and it is expected that there will be some rerouting of shipments. For buyers of US DDGS, the situation in China has caused additional weakness in the DDGS export prices and there has been an increase in inquiries and export orders from other DDGS importing countries. Of course, as is to be expected, buyers are tending to bid below current selling prices as they feel that they are in a strong position with China out of the equation. There is not much to say this week regarding corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed as their prices seem to be moving in plus/minus 5% range with no further rush to lower price levels. Perhaps we are at the low for the season on these two items or they may just be sitting idle waiting for the next exciting move in corn and protein prices. Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein USD 480/490 m/t CNF Asia Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein USD 630/640 m/t CNF Asia Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein USD 410/430 m/t CNF Asia European MBM 50 protein USD 435/440 m/t CNF Asia European Feathermeal, 75 protein USD 725/730 m/t CNF Asia European poultry meal No offers Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade USD 595/615 m/t CNF Asia USD 645/665 m/t CNF Asia USD 840/850 m/t CNF Asia USD 1050/1070 m/t CNF Asia USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia USD 890/910 m/t CNF Asia USD 775/790 m/t CNF Asia USD 1030/1060 m/t CNF Asia The following indications are at producer s factory, exworks in bulk Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein USD 530/550 m/t Feathermeal 80 protein USA USD 720/740 m/t Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA USD 680/700 m/t There seems to be very little to say this week about the animal protein market. On the export side many of the main importing markets have been slow due to Ramadan, which ends this weekend, and will continue slow for the next few days as the post Ramadan holidays close many buying offices for a few days. Meat and bone meal and feathermeal export prices were steady on the week but there was a jump in poultry meal prices from all origins as demand seems to be outstripping supply for the time being. Page 4 of 6

5 Experts in the USA are saying that animal protein prices are going to have difficulty in moving higher in light of the very weak vegetable protein prices. There is also the feeling that very low priced export DDGS could steal away some of the demand both in the export and domestic USA market. So, like almost everything else, it looks like higher prices are not to be expected at present. SECTION 2 FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN There were a few small changes in fishmeal prices from Peru this week with the higher grades softening just a little down USD 10 or 20 m/t and the very low end dropping by about USD 10 m/t but overall not too exciting for price changes. In Peru the topic seems to be whether the Northern fishing season will be extended by a couple of weeks into august but no word as yet. Next week is National holiday week in Peru so all of the country will be closed for about three days during the week which will certainly reduce the catch as the fishing vessels stay in port for the last two or three days of the quota period. According to trade reports from Peru, there is limited chance that China will be a large buyer until there is more weakness in prices. The trade seems to feel that China may get interested if prices can slide about USD 50 m/t lower, which could probably be possible if there is no buying interest in the market. The producers do have 100,000+ m/t of fishmeal, so they are not really overstocked but some smaller producers may decide to drop their prices a tad in order to keep their inventory at a manageable level. For now it seems to look like there could be some further weakness in fishmeal prices but the weakness will only extend until a major buyer decides to jump into the market and cover their needs. Peru Fishing Season Weekly update July 18, 2014 Season Zone Quota Caught % Remaining % 1st North/Central 2,530,000 1,641, , st South 234,300 11, ,300 Connections European fishmeal prices FOB North German port. Type Protein % Price per m/t USD Herring fishmeal 72 protein 1,960 Danish fishmeal 64 protein 1,730 Peru fishmeal 64 protein 1,800 Chile fishmeal 65 protein 1,820 Iceland fishmeal 70 protein Page 5 of 6

6 PERU INDICATION FISHMEAL PRICES: ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN US DOLLARS Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal Specification Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port 65 protein 1720/1730 m/t 65/66 protein 1750/1760 m/t 67 protein standard steam 1800/1820 m/t 67 protein SD 150 TVN 1820/1840 m/t 67 protein SD 120 TVN 1840/1860 m/t 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN 1860/1880 m/t 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN 1880/1900 m/t Fish oil, crude bulk 1900/2000 Fish oil, crude drums 2100/2200 Fish oil, flexi tank 2050/2150 Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA 2600/2800 INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine, FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried *** sources for information for the Weekly Report: US Grains Council International Grains Council US Wheat France Agrimer EU DG Agri ec.europa.eu/agriculture/index_fr.htm, Commodity 3 Newedge Group The Jacobsen Report MSI Ceres Peru International Brokers Group S.A.C, Peru. And many, many, many more The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates Copyright 2014 Wayne S. Bacon Page 6 of 6