Backbone NZ growth story fighting back As firms work to absorb burgeoning labour supply But a slightly rising jobless rate nonetheless Dairy price decline, Wednesday, unlikely a trendsetter QV housing data parsed for regional reorientations September quarter Crown accounts due Friday New Zealand s labour market is a foot race between strong demand for staff and a rapid expansion in the available workforce. The strong demand for staff is evident from recent trends and from business expectations in recent economic surveys. Last Friday s ANZ survey was the latest example, which went on to show increased backbone regards the economy more generally. Still, the resilient GDP and employment pointers are happening in the context of relatively rapid population growth fuelled, as it is, by the highest levels of net immigration this country has ever experienced. This is reflected in the rate at which New Zealand s working-age population is expanding. This was an annual 2.4% in Q3 2015 a 12-year high and triple the rate it was three years ago (when net immigration was about flat). We believe the net balance of these strong demand and supply forces in the labour market will lead to a further fractional increase in the nation s unemployment rate, to 6.0%, when the September quarter results are published Wednesday morning. This is not based on any wobbly quarter regards employment. Indeed, we expect a solid 0.4% gain jobs for Q3 (2.5% y/y), as per the Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS). As another sign of a fundamentally robust labour market we reckon the participation rate held up at around 69.3% in Q3, so still very near the all-time of 69.5% back in Q1. Employment and NZIER Expectations Series Migration and Working Age Population Net Migration (annual, 000s) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20 0.5 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Source: Statistics NZ, BNZ Net Immigration In keeping with a middling jobless rate, we anticipate the nominal wage measures to be still running around the 3% y/y mark and, in unit cost (LCI) terms, just a sliver below the 2% mark that marries with the mid-point of the Reserve Bank s CPI target band. Specifically, we expect the private sector ordinary-time LCI measure of wages and salaries to increase 0.5% in Q3, for 1.9% y/y. This should be another reminder that core inflation trends are not weak, much as the Bank s factor-model CPI measures demonstrate as well. Our picks for Wednesday s HLFS, Quarterly Employment Survey and Labour Cost Indexes are in line with the medians of the market polls. We couldn t tell from the September Monetary Policy Statement what the Reserve Bank was expecting for the Q3 labour market data. However, its medium term expectations, involving a gradually declining jobless rate, suggest little room for disappointment along the way. Unemployment Rate Working Age Population (rhs) Quarterly Forecasts Annual % change 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 Net % expecting an increase 30 Annual % change 6 % 9 20 10 HLFS Employment (rhs) 5 4 3 8 7 Forecasts BNZ 0-10 -20-30 -40 QSBO Employment Expectations - led six months (lhs) 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4 6 5 4 3 Non-inflationary Rate? RBNZ Sep 2015 MPS -50 Mar-88 Mar-91 Mar-94 Mar-97 Mar-00 Mar-03 Mar-06 Mar-09 Mar-12 Mar-15 Quarterly Source: BNZ, Statistics NZ,NZIER -5 2 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source: BNZ, Statistics NZ Quarterly
Labour Cost Index Ann % change Ordinary time salary and wage rates 5.0 4.5 4.0 public Forecasts be how folk interpret another small fall in dairy prices. We would see it as simply part of a corrective phase following the 63% rebound in dairy auction prices between early August and early October, so not the start of a negative trend. 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Source: BNZ, Statistics NZ Consistent with mid-point of RBNZ inflation target Quarterly private The September MPS forecast the unemployment rate at 6.1% in Q1 2016, drifting down to 5.9% by Q1 2017. We expect 6.4% and 6.7% respectively. It s an area that might yet justify looser monetary policy, if the unemployment rate careens clearly higher, undermining a key source of what is holding core inflation up. Commodities also feature in the NZ data this week. For Tuesday s (1:00pm) commodity price indices, courtesy of ANZ, we are looking for a 4% lift in world price terms, driven entirely by dairy. But only 1% higher in NZ dollar terms, given the rebound in the exchange rate through October. For the GDT auction early Wednesday morning, NZ time we are picking another small fall (after the previous auction s decline of 3.1%). The markets look to be braced for it, this time around, with reference to the moderation in dairy futures on the NZ stock exchange. The key will There is also Tuesday s midday housing report from Quotable Value NZ to consider. These October results will be the first lot post the 1 October introduction of the government s bright line test of capital gains for taxation. This came with tighter registration requirements on foreign buyers (partly to help guard against money laundering). October is also significant in that it s the last month before the LVR augmentations due to come into effect 1 November. The main change will be to require investors in the Auckland housing market to have a 30% deposit, up from 20% under the current LVR rules. This underscores the importance of keeping tabs on the regional aspects to New Zealand s housing market. While there is increasing chatter of a peak in Auckland house prices (and moderating price trends in Canterbury) there is also talk of home prices now on the move elsewhere in the country. This is where tomorrow s QVNZ report will be important in the evidence and anecdote it will provide at a regional level. Finally, note Friday s (10:00am) Crown Financial Accounts. Spanning the three months to September, these will help judge whether the government s operating balance is keeping its nose above water, having squeaked into a small surplus over 2014/15. The Crown accounts tax receipts, specifically, will give inkling as to how the nominal economy was travelling in Q3. Reasonably well, we would hope. craig_ebert@bnz.co.nz
Global Watch Australia: RBA to leave policy unchanged Tuesday. Full data Suite also pending: PMI manufacturing, house prices, TD MI CPI gauge, building approvals, RBA commodity prices, all Monday; PSI services, trade, retail sales, all Wednesday; RBA Governor and Deputy Governor speeches Thursday and Statement on Monetary Policy Friday China: official PMIs Sunday, unofficial PMIs Monday US: ISM manufacturing Monday, payrolls Friday the big data releases. Others include factory orders, trade, and ISM non-manufacturing. A dozen Fed speeches are on the slate, starting Tuesday; Yellen testifying Wednesday Japan: Final manufacturing PMI Monday, PMI services Wednesday, leading index Friday Euro: final PMI is Monday/Wednesday, retail sales and EC economic forecasts Thursday; German final PMIs, then factory orders and industrial production UK: BoE Thursday. Industrial production and trade Friday, otherwise mostly second tier releases Canada: Trade, Ivey PMI, building permits ahead of key monthly labour market report on Friday Australia market split down middle on whether the RBA will cut or not, today pricing in a near 50% chance of a cut. Today s Bloomberg survey of economists revealed that 17 of the 28 economists surveyed still foresee no change from the RBA on Tuesday. Along with Tuesday s RBA Board outcome, next week the RBA Governor is giving a speech on Thursday and the Deputy Governor is also a panel participant at a regulation conference. There are no speech titles for the event, but we expect the Governor s speech to be the most informative, especially after the Board meeting on Tuesday. Rounding out the RBA heavy week is the RBA s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy released on Friday 11.30am AEDT which will incorporate new forecasts for growth and inflation, the market equally sensitive to any tilt on their part. Back in August, the Bank s 2016 inflation forecast was a 2 to 3% range; this time we expect the RBA to provide specific point forecasts for at least for the next six months with the likelihood inflation remaining, in underlying terms, close to 2%. Equally, the market will be interested in the bank s 2017 inflation forecasts though they are more than likely to remain at a range of 2 to 3%. Market Already Pricing In Two More Cuts There is no doubt that market interest in Tuesday s RBA Board meeting has been spiced up in the aftermath of Wednesday s CPI outcome producing low headline inflation, and a full ¼% lower on underlying CPI than the RBA s August statement forecasts. In the lead up to the CPI a rate cut in November seemed quite a distant possibility. Recent activity data has pointed to the domestic economy transitioning towards more domestically-oriented/non mining led growth and as recently as today business credit picked up a little further, consistent with the NAB business survey that s revealed more stability in business confidence and most notably a continued trend improvement in business conditions. There is no doubt that a low inflation outcome has opened the rate cut door further, should the RBA wish to. We doubt they will, instead preferring to dial up the possibility of easing further, but only if needed. We look for some change in the policy guidance language to include a phrase such as recent inflation data points to greater scope to ease monetary policy should the need arise. Bear in mind also that the RBA still likely harbours some anxiety about house prices, particularly Sydney and some extent Melbourne with the risk that an interest rate cut would send a clear signal to investors that the RBA stands ready to support this sector further, not the message that has been coming from the monetary authorities over the past year. All will be revealed on Tuesday 2.30 AEDT. Market pricing is very sensitive to the outcome, with the interest rate The most sensitive of the local data points due this week is Wednesday with the September Retail Trade report. Today s NAB online retail sales report rose 1.1% in September, a pointer, along with generally upbeat reports from industry retailers, to a step up in growth from the Statistician s report s next week. The new iphone 6S could also add a further sweetener to growth. NAB therefore expects retail sales to have risen 0.7% which with already low inflation points to a strong retail sales volume growth for the September quarter of 0.7%, apart with the 0.8% growth in retail sales volumes in the June quarter when aggregate household consumption grew by 0.5%. The market is looking for similar growth in retail sales volumes for the quarter though the consensus estimate for the September month is at a lower 0.4%.
The international trade in goods and services report for September also out Wednesday will help to fill in the pieces on the direction of the net exports contribution to growth in the September quarter and, for us, confirm whether our expectation of a 0.6% turnaround in net exports to a 0.6% point positive contribution from an equally sized drag in the June quarter remains on track. NAB Online Retail Sales Pointing To More Growth payback this month, expecting a rise of 3%. Inevitably, the result could swing either way through the addition or absence of further large-scale apartment developments. Building approvals report also provides estimates of alterations and additions/upgrade approvals for dwellings and non-residential building approvals, both of which have been flat in recent months. The trend in alterations and additions approvals gather more pace in August while on the non-residential building side, approvals have been showing some growth in very recent months, if from a very low base. RBA August Forecasts NAB s forecast calls for a nominal monthly trade deficit of $3.24 billion, little changed on August's $3.1 billion shortfall. Merchandise imports rose in seasonally adjusted terms by 1% in September though we expect this to be largely offset by a modest rise in exports. Bulk commodity export shipments data for September has been mixed with iron ore volumes somewhat higher but coal exports slightly lower. HIA Demand And Supply Showing Signs Of Peaking Whether there is any change from the Reserve Bank on Tuesday or not, there will be keen interest in Friday s RBA Statement on Monetary Policy with its 60+ pages on the domestic and global economy and their key full description of their monetary policy guidance in their overview section and articulation of their economic growth and inflation forecasts in the economic outlook section. We do not expect to see material changes in the growth outlook; we will however be alert to how they see the outlook for inflation in 2016 (and beyond) with their August forecasts only depicting a range of 2 to 3%. We expect that to be honed down to 2-2½%, not too high as to be unrealistic in the light of this past quarter s outcome. China It s a big week for Chinese data. Pretty much all the action came out over the weekend (Sunday) with the release of the official PMIs both for manufacturing and the nonmanufacturing sectors. These were 49.8 and 53.1 respectively. As a follow-up to the official PMIs, the unofficial counterparts are being released on Monday. The final piece of major data for the week, building approvals, is being released on Monday. Both demand and supply indicators of the residential housing market for both detached homes and apartments having flattened off in recent months. We expect this to be confirmed further September report in August approvals were down a meaty six point 6.9% on the back of a 11.4% monthly fall in private medium density approvals which, looking through the monthly noise, a been flat overall for some months now. For September, our expectation is for only partial United States The ISM manufacturing report, a bevy of Fed speakers (no less than a dozen, including testimony from Fed chair Yellen on regulation on Wednesday), on Friday non-farm payrolls report will anchor the week s calendar. The data week unfolds from Monday with the release of the ISM manufacturing report for October. Manufacturing has notched a brittle performance in recent months and the market will be sensitive to any signs of the sector
contracting with the index already at a just growing 50.2 in September. The market consensus is for a flat 50.0 outcome. Then there s a bit of a wait before Fridays payrolls report for October, the market expecting headline payrolls growth to step up somewhat from 142K to 180 K in October and a steady unemployment rate at five point percent. As always, average hourly earnings will be under the microscope, the consensus looking for a mild acceleration to 0.2% for the month from flat in, annual growth picking up 2.2% 2.3%. Other data released through the week include factory orders, vehicle sales, ADP employment report (prepayrolls), the full trade report for September, and the ISM nonmanufacturing report. Remember too that daylight saving ends in the US this weekend. Japan It s a very light data week for Japan, with nothing on the slate likely to alter market pricing too much at all with the final manufacturing PMI, services PMI and latest monthly coincident leading index reports. Eurozone/UK Quiet also with the final PMIs, retail sales and the EC s latest economic forecasts. Germany also has its final PMIs, along with factory orders and industrial production. One item that could gain some interest that doesn t normally is the European Commission s Economic Forecasts to be released on Thursday. ECB President Draghi said that the degree of monetary accommodation will need to be re-examined at our December meeting, when the new Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections will be available, and these forecasts may portend to the ECB s forecasts in December and the need for further monetary easing. In the UK there could be more market excitement with the BoE, it s minutes and press conference Thursday. The UK also has industrial production, along with trade Friday and other mostly second tier releases. Canada The main data event calendar is Friday s labour market report for October. Trade figures timber, the Ivy purchasing managers index, and building permits. Ahead of the Ivey PMI comes the RBC equivalent earlier in the week. david.degaris@nab.com.au / tapas.strickland@nab.com.au
Fixed Interest Market Reuters: BNZL, BNZM Bloomberg:BNZ What the RBA does this week will influence the market s expectations for RBNZ activity. The market currently prices around a 40% chance of a cut at the RBA s meeting tomorrow. The recent low-side surprise on AU Q3 CPI has opened further the rate cut door, but our NAB colleagues believe it is still unlikely the Bank will cut at this meeting. Given current fairly balanced market pricing, expect an AU rates response irrespective of outcome. NZ yields will likely follow in direction, if not magnitude. This will then set the market up for Wed morning s GDT dairy auction and NZ employment report. We anticipate a further small decline in prices at this week s auction. We see it as a corrective phase following the 63% rebound in GDT prices from Aug lows, rather than the start of a negative trend. Nevertheless, the market may be inclined to take a negative view of the outcome and lean toward increased expectation of a near-term RBNZ rate cut. Our expectations for the NZ Q3 employment report are closely aligned to consensus. These see the unemployment rate tick up to 6.0%, from 5.9%. This would not represent genuine labour market weakness (see Economics comment), but could once again get the market thinking about a near-term RBNZ rate cut. Our central view continues to see a further 25bps OCR cut by year-end, taking the cash rate to a cyclical trough of 2.50%. The market continues to price a small chance of a sub 2.50% OCR next year, but currently only around a 45% chance of a cut by year-end. Overall, we see the risk that NZ 2-year swap trades lower this week within the 2.60-2.80% range we see sustaining in the months ahead. Overall, we see little urgency to hedge short-end rate risk in the near-term. However, we expect short-end swaps will be higher in a year s time, as the market eventually begins to contemplate the next hiking cycle. For the long-end of the NZ curve, the key event to watch this week is Friday s US payrolls report. NZ 10-year swaps remain much more highly correlated with US Treasury yields than the market s expectations for the NZ OCR. The market has moved to price a 50% chance of a US Fed hike by year-end (from circa 30% previously), following the Fed s more hawkish tone at last week s meeting. This week s payrolls report will be one of two before the Fed s December meeting. It will be crucial. In its September statement the Fed noted that the pace of jobs gains slowed. If it is to hike by year-end it would need to be convinced this softness is not gaining momentum. Consensus expects non-farm payrolls to rebound in Oct to 180k (142k previously). A solid result will likely see US 10-year yields extend their recent rebound. A disappointing number could see yields back toward their range lows in short order. NZ long yields will take their cue from these moves. Longer-term we see both US and NZ long-end yields moving higher as the Fed eventually pulls the trigger on a rate hike. This is a key component of our preference to position for NZ 2-10s swap curve steepening, within a 60-120bps range. The Bank of England is also in the spotlight this week. No change of policy is expected, but there will be plenty of attention to its associated comments. Currently the market is not looking for a first hike BoE until early 2017. change (bps) 90 day bills kymberly_martin@bnz.co.nz 12/17 NZGB 04/27 NZGB 2yr swaps 10yr swaps 2yr/10yr swaps (bps) 26-Oct-15 2.88% 2.53% 3.32% 2.74% 3.51% 77 2-Nov-15 2.96% 2.54% 3.30% 2.76% 3.52% 76 Change (bps) 8 0-2 2 2-1 Key Fixed Interest Views Category 2-Nov-15 Tactical (1w) Strategic (6-12m) Comments NZ Money Markets OCR 2.75% We see the OCR being cut to a cyclical trough of 2.50% by year-end and this level being sustained throughout 2016. NZ Swap Yields 2y 2.76% We see yields in a 2.65-2.80% range in coming weeks. Employment report and dairy prices provide downside risk this week. 5y 3.06% Yields likely to continue to flirt with a return to historic lows circa 2.90%. Storng US payrolls provide greatest risk of a push higher in yield. 10y 3.52% Direction to be determined by end of week US payrolls. NZ Swap Curve 2s-10s 76bps We see the curve biased to steepen this week. We continue to see a 60-120bps range through to year-end. NZ Bond Yields NZGB 2027s 3.30% We continue to see the supply-demand dynamics for NZGBs as fairly balanced at present. NZ-AU Swap Spreads 2y 86bps RBA represents key risk to spreads this week. We do not expect a cut. But market prices a 40% chance so expect a reaction either way. NZ Swap-Bond Spread 2027s ASM 33bps We see longer-dated NZGBs outperforming relative to swap, taking spreads back toward middle of 25-60bps range. US Bond Yields 10y 2.14% A weak US payrolls report would see US yields return to range-lows in short order. Strong report see yieldspush higher. NZ-US Bond Spread NZ-US 2027s 110bps We expect NZGBs will outperform on any UST sell-off in the run up to the next NZGB2027 tender on 19 Nov. NZ-AU Bond Spread NZ-AU 2027s 51bps We anticipate NZGBs can also compress relative to AU equivalents in the months ahead as RBNZ cuts and RBA remains on hold.
Foreign Exchange Markets Reuters pg BNZWFWDS Bloomberg pg BNZ9 It s a big week of data and events ahead, capped by the US employment report on Friday. Recall that September s report was absolutely woeful, and put paid to the idea of an October rate hike. While the FOMC indeed chose to stand pat last week, its language was designed to put the market on notice for December. Data (or risk appetite) would apparently need to deteriorate (the latter materially so) for the FOMC to take a December hike off the table. Out of all the events ahead of the report, we re looking forward to NY Fed Chair Dudley s speech on Wednesday. He turned cautious last month, and we ll be interested to see whether he returns to the hike by end- 2015 camp. Closer to home, we re watching the NZD/AUD carefully. It continues to put distance between itself and normal assessments of fair value. Some of this is technically and momentum driven, but some of it has its roots in AUD underperformance ahead of the RBA decision this week. Our NAB colleagues expect the RBA to stand pat, but are on guard for some strengthening of the easing bias. This would leave AUD higher (thanks to a substantial AUD short position), but not hugely so. Still, it could be just the thing to take the wind out of NZD/AUD s very full sails. A sharper correction would drive NZD underperformance across the board. We re not sure this week will be quite that ugly, but it s something we re wary of over the coming weeks. Beware, too, of the local dairy auction on Wednesday, where we expect a small decline in prices. Elsewhere, investors have added to speculative long positions on the USD, mostly through EUR and JPY. The EUR position is understandable, given the ECB s strong hints of further easing in December. The short JPY positioning looks a little precarious, as it was built up ahead of last week s BoJ decision, where the BoJ failed to expand its easing programme. We wouldn t be surprised to see JPY gain further in the near-term. raiko_shareef@bnz.co.nz Chart 1: Asian Currency Moves Reflected In NZD Charts of the week Chart 2: USD Long Positions Gain, Driven by EUR, JPY NZD/AUD 1.00 NZD/AUD Relative to Short-term "Fair-value" NZD/AUD 1.00 0.97 0.94 0.91 Estimated "Fair Value" Range* Actual NZD/AUD 0.97 0.94 0.91 0.88 0.88 0.85 0.85 0.82 0.79 0.76 Current "Fair Value" between 0.8840-0.9130 0.82 0.79 0.76 0.73 0.73 0.70 Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14 Weekly Source: BNZ, Bloomberg * Fair value is calculated using a regression model based on NZ-AU commodity prices, 3-year swap spreads, and business confidence. 0.70 Current Week ahead Year ahead Momentum¹ NZD/USD 0.6739 Positive NZD/AUD 0.9469 Positive NZD/GBP 0.4359 NZD/EUR 0.6107 NZD/JPY 81.10 Positive Positive Positive NZD Weekly Outlook NZD continues to toe the 0.6620-0.6850 range. We expect to see another small decline in dairy prices this week. AUD direction will be an important influence, with a line-ball RBA decision looming. Short-term Fair Value² Risk Appetite³ NZ Commodity Prices (SDR)⁴ weekly Δ monthly Δ weekly Δ monthly Δ NZD/USD: 0.7511 NZD/AUD: 0.8984 55% 165.4 1% 15% -1.9 4.8 ¹According to our momentum model ²According to our short-term fair-value models ³According to our Risk Appetite Index (where 100 =risk-loving) ⁴ASB Commodity Price Index Source: BNZ, Bloomberg, ASB Outlook Our NAB colleagues see the RBA on hold this week, while market pricing is near 50:50. A no-change decision should take the wind out of the cross' rather full sails, and even drag the broader NZD lower. The BoE's quarterly Inflation Report should shed some light on the Bank's outlook for rates, but we doubt the market's view of the first hike (not before 2017) will be seriously challenged. ECB President Draghi over the weekend suggested that a Dec easing is no certainty. EUR looks constructive, and a trip above 1.11 could prove ugly. There is little significant data due. JPY has gained modestly after the BoJ failed to ease policy further last week. With JPY shorts still extended, we'd be inclined to think that USD/JPY could fall further, weakening the cross.
Technicals NZD/USD Outlook: Play the range ST Resistance: 0.6850 (ahead of 0.7010) ST Support: 0.6700 (ahead of 0.6600) We remain the play the range mode, with 0.6850 continuing to mark strong topside resistance. The 100-day moving average on the downside is the major support line. NZD/USD Daily Source: Bloomberg NZD/AUD Outlook: Buy the dip ST Resistance: 0.9550 (ahead of 0.9660) ST Support: 0.9340 (ahead of 0.9200) The cross failed to close above key resistance at 0.9500, but that came after five very constructive sessions. Momentum firmly suggests higher. NZD/AUD Daily Source: Bloomberg raiko_shareef@bnz.co.nz NZ 5-year Swap Rate Outlook: Lower ST Resistance: 3.25 ST Support: 2.92 Still expect a move to 2.92, which will only be negated by a retracement to 3.25. NZ 5-yr Swap Daily Source: Bloomberg NZ 2-year - 5-year Swap Spread (yield curve) Outlook: Neutral ST Resistance: +43 ST Support: +20 The 2s5s curve continues to trade around the middle of our ST range, however following the earlier break of trend line support at +34 we expect any move to +20 to be met with short term support. NZ 2yr 5yrSwap Spread Daily Source: Bloomberg george_hollobon@bnz.co.nz
Key Upcoming Events Forecast Median Last Forecast Median Last Monday 2 November Aus, TD Inflation Gauge, October y/y +1.9% Aus, Building Approvals, September +1.0% -6.9% Aus, CoreLogic HPI, October +0.9% China, Services PMI (Caixin), October 50.5 China, PMI (Caixin), October 47.6 47.2 UK, CIPS Manuf Survey, October 51.3 51.5 US, Construction Spending, September +0.5% +0.7% US, ISM Manufacturing, October 50.0 50.2 Tuesday 3 November NZ, QVNZ House Prices, October +12.6% NZ, ANZ Comdty Prices ($NZ), October +9.3% Aus, RBA Policy Announcement 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% US, Factory Orders, September -0.9% -1.7% US, Yellen Testifies, Banking Wednesday 4 November NZ, HLFS Employment, Q3 +0.4% +0.4% +0.3% NZ, Dairy Auction -3.1% NZ, LCI Priv Ord Wages, Q3 y/y +1.9% 1.9% +1.8% Aus, International Trade, September -$3.2b -$2.9b -$3.1b Aus, Retail Trade, September +0.7% +0.4% +0.4% UK, CIPS Services, October 54.5 53.3 Wednesday 4 November continued US, Fed's Dudley/Fischer Speak US, ADP Employment, October +180k +200k US, International Trade, September -$41.00b -$48.33b US, ISM Non-Manuf, October 56.5 56.9 Thursday 5 November Aus, Stevens Speaks Jpn, BOJ Minutes, 6/7 Oct Meeting Euro, EC GDP Forecasts Euro, Retail Sales, September flat Euro, ECB Economic Bulletin Germ, Factory Orders, September +1.0% -1.8% UK, BOE Policy Announcement/Report 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% Friday 6 November NZ, Crown Financial Statements, 3m-to-Sept 2015 Aus, Qtly Monetary Statement Aus, RBA's Edey Speaks Germ, Industrial Production, September +0.5% -1.2% UK, Industrial Production, September -0.1% +1.0% US, Non-Farm Payrolls, October +180k +142k US, Fed's Bullard/Brainard Speak Historical Data Today Week Ago Month Ago Year Ago Today Week Ago Month Ago Year Ago CASH & BANK BILLS Call 2.75 2.75 2.75 3.50 1mth 2.92 2.87 2.84 3.65 2mth 2.93 2.88 2.85 3.67 3mth 2.95 2.88 2.84 3.69 6mth 2.92 2.87 2.78 3.73 GOVERNMENT STOCK 12/17 2.54 2.52 2.50 3.72 03/19 2.61 2.60 2.61 3.79 04/20 2.73 2.72 2.72 3.88 05/21 2.82 2.81 2.79 3.91 04/23 3.01 3.01 3.00 4.00 GLOBAL CREDIT INDICES (ITRXX) AUD 5Y 117.6 116.75 129.63 97.88 N. AMERICA 5Y 78.88 78.57 88.40 64.97 EUROPE 5Y 70.88 71.16 84.51 67.33 SWAP RATES 2 years 2.76 2.75 2.74 3.92 3 years 2.83 2.81 2.83 4.05 5 years 3.06 3.04 3.09 4.20 10 years 3.52 3.51 3.58 4.43 FOREIGN EXCHANGE NZD/USD 0.6739 0.6777 0.6323 0.7892 NZD/AUD 0.9462 0.9355 0.9077 0.8966 NZD/JPY 81.15 82.004 76.804 85.098 NZD/EUR 0.611 0.6132 0.5695 0.6215 NZD/GBP 0.436 0.4416 0.4191 0.4896 NZD/CAD 0.881 0.8920 0.8497 0.8879 TWI 72.79 72.93 69.55 76.69 NZD Outlook TWI 82 78 74 70 66 62 58 54 50 46 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: BNZ, RBNZ New Zealand Dollar NZD/USD (rhs) NZD TWI Monthly Forecast NZD/USD 0.98 0.94 0.90 0.86 0.82 0.78 0.74 0.70 0.66 0.62 0.58 0.54 0.50 0.46 0.42 0.38
Contact Details Stephen Toplis Head of Research +(64 4) 474 6905 Craig Ebert Senior Economist +(64 4) 474 6799 Doug Steel Senior Economist +(64 4) 474 6923 Kymberly Martin Senior Market Strategist +(64 4) 924 7654 Raiko Shareef Currency Strategist +(64 4) 924 7652 Main Offices Wellington 60 Waterloo Quay Private Bag 39806 Wellington Mail Centre Lower Hutt 5045 New Zealand Phone: +(64 4) 473 3791 FI: 0800 283 269 Auckland 80 Queen Street Private Bag 92208 Auckland 1142 New Zealand Phone: +(64 9) 976 5762 Toll Free: 0800 081 167 Christchurch 81 Riccarton Road PO Box 1461 Christchurch 8022 New Zealand Phone: +(64 3) 353 2219 Toll Free: 0800 854 854 National Australia Bank Peter Jolly Global Head of Research +(61 2) 9237 1406 Alan Oster Group Chief Economist +(61 3) 8634 2927 Ray Attrill Global Co-Head of FX Strategy +(61 2) 9237 1848 Skye Masters Head of Interest Rate Strategy +(61 2) 9295 1196 Wellington Foreign Exchange +800 642 222 Fixed Income/Derivatives +800 283 269 Sydney Foreign Exchange +(61 2) 9295 1100 Fixed Income/Derivatives +(61 2) 9295 1166 New York Foreign Exchange +1 212 916 9631 Fixed Income/Derivatives +1 212 916 9677 Hong Kong Foreign Exchange +(85 2) 2526 5891 Fixed Income/Derivatives +(85 2) 2526 5891 London Foreign Exchange +(44 20) 7796 3091 Fixed Income/Derivatives +(44 20) 7796 4761 ANALYST DISCLAIMER: The person or persons named as the author(s) of this report hereby certify that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject securities and issuers and other subject matters discussed. No part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the research report. Research analysts responsible for this report receive compensation based upon, among other factors, the overall profitability of the Markets Division of National Australia Bank Limited, a member of the National Australia Bank Group ( NAB ). The views of the author(s) do not necessarily reflect the views of NAB and are subject to change without notice. NAB may receive fees for banking services provided to an issuer of securities mentioned in this report. NAB, its affiliates and their respective officers, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report (subject to the policies of NAB), may also from time to time maintain a long or short position in, or purchase or sell a position in, hold or act as advisors, brokers or commercial bankers in relation to the securities (or related securities and financial instruments), of companies mentioned in this report. NAB or its affiliates may engage in these transactions in a manner that is inconsistent with or contrary to any recommendations made in this report. NEW ZEALAND DISCLAIMER: This publication has been provided for general information only. Although every effort has been made to ensure this publication is accurate the contents should not be relied upon or used as a basis for entering into any products described in this publication. Bank of New Zealand strongly recommends readers seek independent legal/financial advice prior to acting in relation to any of the matters discussed in this publication. Neither Bank of New Zealand nor any person involved in this publication accepts any liability for any loss or damage whatsoever may directly or indirectly result from any advice, opinion, information, representation or omission, whether negligent or otherwise, contained in this publication. US DISCLAIMER: If this document is distributed in the United States, such distribution is by nabsecurities, LLC. This document is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, financial instrument or product or to provide financial services. It is not the intention of nabsecurities to create legal relations on the basis of information provided herein. National Australia Bank Limited is not a registered bank in New Zealand.