2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013

Transcription

1 2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013

2 U.S. stock market performance in 2012 * % total return +6.35% total return -0.38% total return -2.75% total return *It is not possible to invest in an index. Performance of indices does not reflect investment fees or transaction costs. 2

3 Surprise-side economics * *The index reflects a weighted average of the difference between economic data and economists' consensus expectations. Index values indicate whether economic data are higher or lower than forecasts. 3

4 Political uncertainty costs economic growth 1 1 The index measures policy uncertainty by calculating the number of newspaper references (weighted 50%), and expiring tax-code provisions and statistical measures of disagreement among forecasters about inflation and government spending (weighted 50%). 4

5 The long-term debt problem U.S. versus other major world economies Country Gross debt as % of GDP Japan Italy U.S France 87.5 Canada 90.0 U.K Germany 83.0 India 67.6 Brazil 64.1 China 22.2 Source: Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 2012, Historical Tables, Table 7.1. Source: International Monetary Fund, 2012 estimates 5

6 The economy is getting better you just have to look for it Fog of uncertainty in U.S. is starting to thin List of positive factors expanding: Housing growth is accelerating Auto sales highest since 2007, retail sales up Monthly job growth has stabilized Inflation remains low and stable under 2%, gasoline prices dropping Equity markets rose in January on positive economic data and corporate earnings reports List of negative factors shrinking: Manufacturing activity expanding, but only slowly Consumer confidence faltered in Q4 on fiscal cliff concerns Businesses uncertain about impact of deficit and taxes 6

7 The economy should be growing closer to 5%... 7

8 Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312 Growth broken down into its components Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Net exports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Real GDP sum of above 8

9 Job growth is stabilizing 9

10 The consumer is back 10

11 However, the fiscal cliff might change that 11

12 Housing normally adds 1% to the bottom line 12

13 Home prices are rebounding 13

14 Auto sales have recovered 14

15 Capital goods spending is holding up barely 15

16 Manufacturing seeks to regain momentum > 50 = EXPANSION < 50 = CONTRACTION 16

17 Recovery outside the U.S. is mixed Europe economy remains weak with early signs of optimism Germany GDP dropped 0.5% in Q4 Manufacturing activity contracted in Germany and rest of Eurozone Signs of stabilization with central bank commitment to Euro Some progress on debt and fiscal challenges in Spain, Italy, and Greece Slight improvement in region s leading economic indicator China s growth rate rebounds, political transition complete GDP grew 7.9% in Q4 first increase in growth rate in seven quarters Industrial production rose 10.3% in December Shanghai stock market index up sharply in mid-january 17

18 Leading index has declined in Europe 18

19 Mild recession, but no turnaround anytime soon 19

20 Weak manufacturing sector > 50 = EXPANSION < 50 = CONTRACTION Source: Markit 20

21 but yields are stable 5.31% 4.53% 1.99% 1.32% 21

22 China is once again accelerating 22

23 Manufacturing back in expansionary territory > 50 = EXPANSION < 50 = CONTRACTION 23

24 Recent rebound in Chinese stock prices a hopeful sign 24

25 Looking at the year ahead The end of QE in 2013 How to get rid of a trillion dollar balance sheet Inflation isn t in the cards just yet When will rates rise? Give us some numbers 25

26 Treasury rates head lower 26

27 Don t expect this graph to change too soon 27

28 Inflation is not (yet) a problem 28

29 Oil prices have topped out for the cycle $

30 Look for market rates to change this year mo 6mo 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 10yr 30yr 12/31/ /31/ /31/

31 2013 economic outlook Moderate pace of recovery likely to continue US GDP forecast of 2.5%, including fiscal drag Potential for Fed to announce end of QE this year with rate increases in 2014 Inflation will remain below 2.5% in 2013 Financial markets outlook Earnings continue to improve and will drive indexes this year. Further, rising yield curve will push money into equities over bonds. Could see 20% returns in domestic equities. EM markets had a good 2012 and should have a better Risks remain in Washington Equity volatility will continue 31

32 Important information This material is prepared by TIAA-CREF Asset Management and represents the views of Timothy Hopper as of January These views may change in response to changing economic and market conditions. The material is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any product or service to which this information may relate. Certain products and services may not be available to all entities or persons. Past performance is not an indicator of future results. TIAA-CREF Asset Management provides investment advice and portfolio management services to the TIAA-CREF group of companies through the following entities: Teachers Advisors, Inc., TIAA- CREF Investment Management, LLC, and Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association (TIAA ). Teachers Advisors, Inc., is a registered investment adviser and wholly owned subsidiary of Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association (TIAA). TIAA-CREF products may be subject to market and other risk factors. See the applicable product literature, or visit tiaa-cref.org for details Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association-College Retirement Equities Fund, (TIAA-CREF), 730 Third Ave., New York, NY C