GHG Emissions and Reduction Targets From a Historical Perspective Nebojsa a Nakicenovic International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) naki@iiasa.ac.at UNFCCC SBSTA Meeting Bonn, Germany 28-30 May 2001
Impacts of Technological Change on Society Higher population levels Increased life expectancy Higher productivity Lower material intensities Nakicenovic IIASA 2001
Night Lights 1995/1996 1995
Night Lights 2070 (IPCC SRES A1) 2070
Industrial CO 2 and total* GHGs per capita emissions versus population Tons C e / capita 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 500 1000 10 6 population Legend: Bio Gas Oil Coal *including deforestation CO 2 and anthropogenic CH 4 emissions (1kg CO 2 = 21kg CH 4 )
Contribution to CO 2 Concentrations Increase ~1990 1800-1990 FCCC Annex I countries: 71.9% Developing countries: 28.1% FCCC Annex I countries: 83.7% Developing countries: 16.3% FSU 19.2% North America 25.2% FSU 14.1% North America 33.2% Eastern Europe 5.5% Eastern Europe 6.4% Rest of L.America 4.2% Brazil 1.0% Rest of Africa 2.1% N. Africa & Mid.East 4.3% Rest of Asia 2.8% India 3.0% China 10.8% Japan 4.8% Australia & N. Zealand 1.3% Western Europe 15.0% Rest of L.America 3.2% Brazil 0.6% Rest of Africa 1.6% N. Africa & Mid.East 2.2% Rest of Asia 1.5% India 1.6% China 5.5% Australia & N. Zealand 1.1% Japan 3.7% Western Europe 26.1% Nakicenovic IIASA 2001
7 Historical (1800-1990) and Current Per Capita GHG Emissions ton C equiv. per person-year and per capita 6 All CO 2 + CH 4 All CO 2 + CH 4 5 Industrial Industrial 4 3 Cumulative 1800-1990 CO 2 CO 2 1990 2 1 World average 0 North OECD Eastern USSR Japan Oceania China India Other America Europe Europe Asia NAME * Other Brazil Africa * North Africa and Middle East Other Latin America
ENERGY RELATED CO 2 : OECD vs DCs 3 OECD DCs 2020: stabilize total emissions at 1990 levels 3 Gt C 2 2 1 1 0 ENERGY-b.DRW 1990 2020-35% Carbon tax Cut backs Equal per Base Case flat rate 170$/t C OECD proportional capita reduction 85$/t C DCs to historical emissions contribution 0
THE GREENHOUSE "BAROMETER" "North" "South" 0 20 40 60 80 100 % GDP (mexr.) 1990 GDP (PPP) 1990 Population 1800-1990 Population 1990 Pop. under age 18, 1990 Industrial CO 2 1800-1990 All CO 2 1800-1990 Industrial CO 2 1990 All CO 2 1990 1) CO 2 + CH 4 1990 All GHGs 1990 2) (1) Uncertainty range of 0.8 to 2.6 Gt C biota emissions in the "South" (2) Approximation 100 80 60 40 20 0 %
Global Net CO 2 Emissions From Energy in IIASA WEC Scenarios 6 5 4 GtC 1.0 FSU 0.5 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Kyoto Commitments Annex I A2 A1 A3 B C1, C2 GtC 3 Annex I 2 Non-Annex I 1 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Nakicenovic IIASA 2001
TS Figure 2
TS Figure 3
Annex-I and Non-Annex-I per capita income
Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Global carbon dioxide emissions (GtC) A1 40 30 20 10 0 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 A1FI A1B 750 650 A1T 550 450 40 30 20 10 A2 0 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 A2 750 550 Global carbon dioxide emissions (GtC) B1 40 30 20 10 0 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 B1 550 450 B2 40 30 20 10 0 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 B2 650 550 450 Nakicenovic IIASA 2001
Global Mean Temperature Change Six illustrative SRES scenarios, full range and IS92a INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Energy Systems Costs of Alternative Baselines and Stabilization Scenarios Cumulative Discounted System Costs (1990-2100), [trillion US$] 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 450ppmv CO 2 stabilization 450ppmv 450ppmv 450ppmv 550ppmv 650ppmv 550ppmv 550ppmv 550ppmv A1T A1B 750ppmv 750ppmv 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Cumulative CO 2 Emissions [GtC] A1G Baselines A1C Nakicenovic IIASA 2001
Primary Energy Substitution 100 80 Coal Fraction (%) 60 40 Wood Oil 20 Gas Nuclear 0 1850 1900 1950 2000
Brazil Ethanol Learning Curve 200 (Producer) price $(1996)/bbl Producer price 150 100 Cumulative subsidy 1billion $ 50 Oil price Data: Goldenberg, 1996 30 % cost reduction for each doubling of cum. production 0 1978 1985 1988 1990 1995 0 10 20 30 Cumulative production 10 6 bbl Regression 0.6 billion $ 0.3 billion $? Nakicenovic IIASA 2001
The Innovation Chain Research and development Demonstration projects Early deployment (cost buy-down) Widespread dissemination
Uncertainty and Technological Learning 1.4 1.2 0.1% Learning index (cost reduction) 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 ~5% 20% 0.2 0.1% ~5% 25% 25% 20% 50% 90% 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Number of doublings Nakicenovic IIASA 2001
Background Global (one region) MESSAGE model 10 technological clusters - hydrogen economy and new renewables Full-scale model with more than 100 technologies Levelized costs, supply curves for all resources, full uncertainty Nakicenovic IIASA 2001
Why It Is Hard to Do? Highly non-linear function non-convex, non-smooth Complex stochastic problem Huge parameter space example 10 30 combinations ~ 400 years for high-end workstation Nakicenovic IIASA 2001
Implementation Cray T3E-900 at National Energy Research Scientific Computer Center, US 640-processor machine with a peak CPU performance of 900 MFlops per processor Nakicenovic IIASA 2001
Global CO 2 Emissions in 2100 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% Full set of 520 technology dynamics 4.0% Relative Frequency 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 5 10 15 20 25 30 Ranges, GtC Nakicenovic IIASA 2001
Global CO 2 Emissions in 2100 12% 11% 10% 9% Near-optimal set of 53 technology dynamics Relative Frequency 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 5 10 15 20 25 30 Ranges, GtC Nakicenovic IIASA 2001
Conclusions Technology policies and life styles Distributive vs. reductive criteria Comprehensiveness or GHG species Flexible mechanisms for stabilization Historical energy-related CO 2 to 1860 Historical vs. current contributions GWPs, raditative forcing or emissions Nakicenovic IIASA 2001
Nakicenovic IIASA 2001