CUBAN ENERGY REVOLUTION AND FUTURE ROLE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY REFORM Group Meeting Salzburg 215 Jyrki Luukkanen Research Director Finland Futures Research Centre University of Turku jyrki.luukkanen@utu.fi
Contents Cuban development and energy use Cuban energy revolution Drivers of CO 2 emissions Future energy scenarios for Cuba Vazquez, L., Luukkanen, J., Kaisti, H., Käkönen, M. and Majanne, Y. (215) Decomposition analysis of Cuban energy production and use: Analysis of energy transformation for sustainability. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 49 (215) 638 645. ISSN: 1364-321
Cuban development Prior to the Cuban revolution in 1959, about half of the households were connected to electricity grid. By 1989, this number had risen to 95 per cent Trade with Soviet Union essential for Cuban economic development Collapse of Soviet Union 1991 -> Huge impact on Cuban economy Billion 25 USD GDP in Cuba 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1971 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 26 212
Cuban energy use ktoe 5 Primary energy use in Cuba 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 Coal Oil Biofuel Natural gas 1 5 1971 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 26 212 Reduction of Soviet oil import 1991 Import of Venezuelan oil Reduction in sugar production reduced biomass use (bagasse)
Cuban energy production Mtoe 7 Fossil fuel production, import and export in Cuba, 29 6 5 4 3 2 1 Production Imports Exports -1 Crude oil Oil products Natural gas
Cuban energy production ktoe 4 Oil and gas production in Cuba 35 3 25 2 15 1 Oil Gas 5 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 26 212
Cuban energy problems In the early-2s Cuba s energy situation was bleak Cuba had centralized and inefficient power plants 11 thermoelectric plants that functioned about half of the time. Use of poor quality fuel with high content of sulphur. There were frequent blackouts and high transmission line losses In 24 hurricanes in Cuba, a million people without electricity for 1 days Decision to start energy revolution
Revolución Energética Energy Revolution (i) Energy efficiency and conservation; (ii) Increasing the availability and reliability of the national grid; (iii) Incorporating more renewable energy technologies into its energy portfolio; (iv) Increasing the exploration and production of local oil and gas; (v) International co-operation.
Revolución Energética Energy Revolution Change over to energy efficient appliances. Households switched incandescent light bulbs to more efficient compact fluorescents free of charge. 2 million refrigerators and one million fans were replaced, 3.5 million rice cookers and 3 million pressure cookers were bought New residential electricity tariff was introduced to encourage electricity saving
Efficiency improvement Switch from kerosene to electric cooking
Energy efficiency Reduction in LPG use Rice cookers Pressure cookers
Revolución Energética Energy Revolution ktoe 35 Residential energy consumption in Cuba 3 25 2 15 1 Oil products Biofuel Electricity 5 1971 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 26 212
Solar development Solar PV development Two large scale solar PV plants 1 MW + 1 MW
Wind power capacity 12 MW in 214
Revolución Energética Energy Revolution Not much impact on industrial energy use No special measures in industry ktoe 5 Fuel and electricity consumption in Cuban industry 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 Oil products Natural gas Biofuels Electricity 1 5 1971 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 26 212
Electricity
Electricity GWh 18 Electricity production in Cuba 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Oil Gas Hydro Biofuel Solar Wind 1971 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 26 212
Electricity ktoe 14 Electricity consumption in different sectors in Cuba 12 1 8 6 4 Residential Commercial Industry Agriculture forestry 2 1971 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 26 212 Electricity is increasingly used in the residential sector
Renewable energy target Target of supplying 24% of electricity needs from renewables by 23 Plans for rapid increase in wind power and solar PV Bioenergy has large potential, but not much investment plans Energy efficiency improvements are seen as one means of reducing the demand
Decomposition of CO 2 emissions Mton CO 2 change from 1971 3 Cuba, factors affecting CO 2 emissions 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. CO2/TPES TPES/FEC FEC/GDP GDP/POP POP Total change in CO2 1971-81 1971-89 1971-21 1971-26 1971-212 1. Shift to more fossil fuel use 2. Decreasing transformation efficiency 3. Improving efficiency of economic production 4. Increasing GDP
25 % Share of electricity of final energy consumption in Cuba 2 % 15 % 1 % 5 % % 1971 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 26 212
Future scenarios for Cuba Mill. USD 12 1 8 Value added (GDP) Cuba Scenarios constructed with LINDA model Business-as-usual with fossil energy 6 4 2 Commercial Industry GWh 45 Agriculture and forestry 4 Electricity consumption in Cuba 1971 1981 1991 21 211 221 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Losses Residential Commercial Industry Agriculture forestry 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 26 211 216 221 226
BAU fossil scenario ktoe Industrial energy use in Cuba ktoe 2 Transport energy use in Cuba 9. Natural gas 18 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 26 211 216 221 226 Biofuel Electricity Crudel Oil Petroleum products Coal 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1971197619811986199119962126211216221226 Diesel Gasoline ktoe 45 Residential energy use in Cuba 4 35 3 25 2 15 Coal Biofuel Electricity Petroleum products 1 5 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 26 211 216 221 226
BAU scenario with fossil fuel ktoe Fuel use in Cuba Natural gas 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 26 211 Fuel oil Coal Oil and Petroleum products Biofuels Increase in CO 2 emissions Mtons of CO2 CO 2 emissions from fuels 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 26 211 216 221 226 Natural gas Fuel oil Coal Petroleum products
Scenario with renewables and improved efficiency Similar economic development GWh 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Electricity consumption in Cuba Losses Residential Commercial Industry Agriculture forestry Lower growth in electricity demand (35 TWh instead of 4 TWh) due to improved efficiency Large increase in wind power and solar PV production Considerable increase in bioenergy production 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 26 211 216 221 226
Renewables and energy efficiency scenario ktoe 2 Fuel use in Cuba 18 Natural gas 16 14 Fuel oil 12 1 Coal 8 6 4 2 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 26 211 216 221 226 Considerable reduction in CO 2 emissions from 45 Mton to 32 Mton Oil and Petroleum products Biofuels Mtons of CO2 35 3 25 2 15 CO 2 emissions from fuels Natural gas Fuel oil Coal 1 5 Petroleum products 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 26 211 216 221 226
Conclusions There is considerable potential in renewable development in Cuba Large investments are needed with increasing energy demand in order to reduce CO 2 emissions Development of domestic oil and gas resources may hinder renewable development especially if import substitution or export revenues are possible
Thank you Jyrki Luukkanen Research Director Finland Futures Research Centre University of Turku www.utu.fi http://ffrc.utu.fi www.mekong.fi jyrki.luukkanen@utu.fi