Overview of the US Biodiesel Industry and Summary By John Kruse, PhD Principal and Directory of Quantitative Analysis Email: jkruse@waees-llc.com October 26, 2015
WAEES Scenario Analyses (2015) Scenario Analysis 1. RFS 2 Policy - Volume Obligations - Biodiesel - Ethanol - Advanced - Tax credits - Ethanol blend wall issues 5. Biofuels Feed Stocks - Supply Availability - Yield growth - shocks - New sources - Market changes - Technology 8. Trait & Technology Analysis - Valuation of GE crops - Impacts of labeling GE foods - Impact of new trait introduction WAEES Global Partial Equilibrium Modeling System 2. International Policy - Argentina Policy - Brazil Policy - EU-28 Biofuels Policy 6. International supply shocks - Ukraine disturbance - South America yields - US yields 3. Biofuels Technology - Feedstock Conversion - Renewable Diesel 4. Crude oil prices 7. International demand shocks - China feed demand - Africa meat & feed consumption - Calorie consumption Over 20,000 equations WAEES has run over 50 biofuels specific scenarios in 2015 as of the end of September
Commodity Coverage Corn Cattle Sorghum Barley Wheat Rice Cotton Soybeans & Derivatives Sunflowers & Derivatives Hogs Beef Pork Broilers Dairy & Dairy Products (Quasi Trend Model) Rapeseed & Derivatives Palm Oil Sugarcane, Sugar Beets, & Sugar Biodiesel Ethanol
Concept Coverage Supply Components Crops: Area, Yield,, Imports, Beginning Stocks Livestock: Breeding Herd, Market Animals, Calf Crop, Pig Crop, Slaughter Weight,, Imports, Beginning Stocks Biofuels & RINs: Capacity, Capacity Utilization,, Imports, Beginning Stocks Demand Components Crops: Food, Feed, Industrial, Exports, Ending Stocks Livestock: Slaughter, Death Loss, Food Use, Exports, Ending Stocks Biofuels & RINs: Consumption, Exports, Ending Stocks Commodity s (except dairy) Regional Crop Costs of for the United States, Brazil, Argentina, China, and India Assumptions used regarding Real GDP Growth, Population, Inflation, Exchange Rates, Crude Oil s, and Policy.
Geographic Coverage of the WAEES Agricultural & Biofuels Partial Equilibrium Models (USDA Regions) North America US Canada Mexico Central America & the Caribbean South America Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Paraguay Uruguay Other South America The European Union (28 countries) Area, yield, production individual countries Other Europe Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Uzbekistan Other Former Soviet Union North Africa Egypt Other North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Kenya Nigeria South Africa Other Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East Iran Saudi Arabia Turkey Other Middle East East Asia China Japan South Korea Taiwan Other East Asia South Asia Bangladesh India Pakistan Other South Asia Southeast Asia Indonesia Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Thailand Vietnam Other Southeast Asia Oceania Australia Other Oceania
Partial Equilibrium Modeling System (Conceptual Framework Representation for One Country) Per Capita Income & Distribution Population Age Distribution & Health Concerns Cultural Tastes & Preferences Inflation Exchange Rates Biofuels Demand Other Crop Demand Crop Food Demand Crop Feed Demand Meat Food Demand Conditioning Assumptions Crop Supply & Demand Crop s Meat s Livestock Supply & Demand Area Harvested Yield Government Policy Market Animals Breeding Herd Crop Cost of Technology Livestock Cost of Fuel Fertilizer Chemical Machinery Seed Land Transport Labor Interest Veterinary Feed
Data Sources Macroeconomic Real GDP, Inflation: IMF through 2019, WAEES thereafter Population: United Nations Exchange Rates: WAEES model based on IMF forecast of real GDP, inflation, and other factors Crude oil and other energy prices: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (EIA) Ag Commodity Supply & Demand USDA PS&D Database, ERS, & NASS (90%) FAO Database Eurostat (EU-28 by country supply data) USDA Gain Reports Country Ministries of Ag Policies & Tariffs USDA FSA & USDA GAIN Reports Country Ministries of Agriculture WTO OECD European Commission Ag Commodity s Biofuels USDA ERS & NASS Eurostat Various spot markets The Jacobsen US Supply & Demand: EIA, EPA EMTS Data, and ERS-FATUS US s: USDA AMS, Nebraska Government Website, The Jacobsen Int l Supply & Demand: USDA Gain Reports, European Biodiesel Board, European Commission, Argentine Institute of National Statistics and Census(INDEC), Int l s: Argentine Secretary of Energy, Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (CEPEA- Brazil), USDA Gain Reports, The Jacobsen
US Biofuels RIN Models Carryover RIN stocks Domestic D4 RIN Imported D4 RIN Domestic D3 RIN Imported D3 RIN D4 RINs Demoted to D5 RINs D4 RIN D4 RIN Volume Obligation D4 RIN Carryover Stocks D3 RIN D3 RIN Volume Obligation Adv Sorghum Ethanol Renewable Diesel Biogas Naptha Heating Oil Compressed Gas Dom Sugarcane Ethanol Butanol Imported Sugarcane Ethanol Renewable Diesel Demoted D4 RINs Supplied Domestic D5 RIN Imported D5 RIN Carryover RIN stocks D5 RINs Demoted to D6 RINs D5 RIN D5 RIN Carryover Stocks D5 RIN Volume Obligation Corn Ethanol Renewable Diesel Biodiesel Renewable Diesel Butanol Demoted D5 RINs Supplied Carryover RIN stocks Domestic D6 RIN Imported D6 RIN D6 RIN D6 RIN Ending Stocks D6 RIN Volume Obligation
US Biofuels Partial Equilibrium Models For Ethanol & Biodiesel Corn Ethanol Biodiesel Ethanol DDG DDG Corn Oil Capacity Processing Margin Capacity Utilization Corn Other Costs Brazil Ethanol Demand World Sugar Brazil Ethanol Supply Biodiesel Glycerin Processing Margins Capacity Capacity Utilization Feed Stock s Technology Corn Oil Ethanol Distillers Grains Brazil Ethanol Biodiesel Glycerin Beginning Stocks Total Supply Imports Sorghum Ethanol Advanced RIN Beginning Stocks Total Supply Imports Ethanol Biodiesel Market Conventional Mandate Conventional RIN Biodiesel RIN Biodiesel Mandate Market Ending Stocks Low Blend Use High Blend Use Exports Cellulosic RIN Ending Stocks Fuel Use Exports Unleaded Gasoline Crude Oil #2 Diesel
US Biofuel Feedstock Sources Butanol Soybean Oil Canola Oil Biodiesel Corn Sugarcane Ethanol DDG Corn Oil Inedible Tallow Sorghum Cellulosic Biomass White Grease Brown Grease Renewable Diesel Naptha Poultry Fat Yellow Grease Boxes with a dashed outline are included in the WAEES biofuels model as assumptions. Heating Oil Palm Oil Landfill Waste Management Biogas Animal Waste Management Compressed Gas
Yellow Grease Market Structure Frying Oil Use High FFA Animal Fats Dashed lines indicate that data is not specifically reported Yellow Grease Beginning Stocks Yellow Grease Yellow Grease Imports Yellow Grease Supply Yellow Grease Yellow Grease Ending Stocks Yellow Grease Feed Use Yellow Grease Methyl Ester Use Yellow Grease Exports
Hog Fat Market Structure Hog Slaughter Beginning Stocks Lard (Edible Hog Fat) Imports White Grease Beginning Stocks White Grease (Inedible Hog Fat) White Grease Imports Lard Supply White Grease Supply Lard White Grease Ending Stocks Food Use Inedible Use Exports White Grease Ending Stocks White Grease Feed Use White Grease Methyl Ester Use White Grease Oleo Chemical Use White Grease Exports Other Industrial Use Methyl Ester Use Dashed lines indicate that data is not specifically reported. Data availability has not been updated to reflect new USDA Fat and Oils: Oilseed Crushings,, Consumption, and Stocks report
SCENARIO ANALYSIS
RFS Volume Obligation Assumptions Baseline and Scenarios Calendar Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 billion gallons Baseline - EPA Proposed Rule (May 2015) Overall RFS 15.930 16.300 17.400 Conventional Gap (Implied Ethanol) 13.250 13.400 14.000 Advanced 2.680 2.900 3.400 Biodiesel 1.630 1.700 1.800 1.900 Cellulosic 0.033 0.106 0.206 Advanced Gap 0.120 0.159 0.404 California CARB (sugarcane ethanol)* 0.120 0.180 0.240 NBB: Minimum Biodiesel Volume Obligations Overall RFS 15.930 16.300 18.000 18.000 18.000 Conventional Gap (Implied Ethanol) 13.250 13.400 14.000 14.000 14.000 Advanced 2.680 2.900 4.000 4.000 4.000 Biodiesel 1.630 1.700 2.000 2.300 2.300 Cellulosic 0.033 0.106 0.206 0.256 0.306 Advanced Gap 0.120 0.159 0.694 0.179 0.129 California CARB (sugarcane ethanol) 0.120 0.180 0.240 0.300 0.360 The $1 blenders credit is not assumed to continue beyond 2014 in both the baseline and NBB scenario. * WAEES Assumption, not specified by EPA
Nominal Dollars Per Barrel Crude Oil West Texas Intermediate 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 US DOE-EIA April 14, 2015 Energy Outlook US DOE-EIA May 2014 Energy Outlook
Bushels Per Acre US Soybean Yields NBB vs USDA, Feb 2011 Projections 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 NBB Forecast USDA Forecast Actual
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Billion Bushels Million Acres US Soybean and Harvested Area 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 86 84 82 80 78 76 74 72 70 68 USDA * NBB USDA Harvested Area* NBB Harvested Area * USDA estimates based on June 2015 WASDE for 2015, and the 2015 USDA Baseline thereafter.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Percent Pounds of oil per bushel Extraction of corn oil from DDG s 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 Share of DDG's with corn oil extracted Corn oil extraction rate from DDG's
Million Pounds DDG Corn Oil (Oct/Sep MY) (NBB Forecast vs Actual) 3000 2500 2640 2761 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Actual* NBB Projected** * Actual numbers based on USDA s Grain Crushings and Co-Products reports, monthly data for 11 months adjusted to annual. ** NBB projections as of July 2015.
Billion Pounds DDG Corn Oil and Use Minimum Scenario Marketing Year 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Biodiesel Use Feed Use DDG corn oil production
SCENARIO RESULTS
Million Gallons US Biodiesel & Imports Minimum Scenario Calendar Year 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 Methyl Ester Methyl Ester Imports Renewable Diesel Renewable Diesel Imports
Million Gallons US Methyl Ester By Feedstock Source Minimum Scenario Oct/Sep Marketing Year 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Soybean Oil Corn Oil Canola Oil Inedible Tallow White Grease Yellow Grease Brown Grease Poultry Fat Other
Dollars Per Gallon Biodiesel Plant s Minimum Scenario Calendar Year 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Dollars Per Gallon RIN s Minimum Scenario Oct/Sep Marketing Year 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Biodiesel Advanced Conventional
Cents Per Pound Soybean Oil Minimum Scenario Oct/Sep Marketing Year 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Dollars Per Gallon Biodiesel Returns and Variable Costs Minimum Scenario Oct/Sep Marketing Year 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 Biodiesel Variable Costs (Soy Oil) Glycerin Variable Costs (Weighted Average Feedstocks)
Billion Dollars US Farm Program Payments (ARC & PLC) 12.0 10.0 9.87 9.83 9.53 9.48 8.0 6.0 5.15 5.15 4.0 3.56 3.27 2.0 0.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 Baseline: EPA Proposed SC 1: Minimum D4 VO
Billion Dollars US Farm Program Payments (ARC & PLC) 12.0 10.0 9.87 9.83 9.60 9.53 9.48 9.40 8.0 6.0 5.15 5.15 5.15 4.0 3.56 3.27 2.70 2.0 0.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 Baseline: EPA Proposed SC 1: Minimum D4 VO SC 2: Realistic D4 VO
Thank You! John Kruse, PhD Principal & Director of Quantitative Analysis, WAEES Jkruse@waees-llc.com 573-228-9842