Supply & demand outlook for the canola industry

Transcription

1 Supply & demand outlook for the canola industry J.P. Gervais Chief Ag Economist March

2 Canola

3 Canola is one component of the environment for oil producing crops

4 Growth in demand has supported the growth of oil producing crops million tonnes Stocks Stocks to Use % 18% % 80 14% 12% 60 10% 8% 40 6% 20 4% 2% / / / / / / / /2015 Source: USDA / FAS 0% stock to use

5 Soybeans drive oilseed markets 350,000 Canola Palm Soybeans 300,000 thousand tonnes 250, , , ,000 50, / / / / / / / /15 Source: USDA/FAS

6 World soybean production 2014/15 United States 34% All other 5% Argentina 18% Canada 2% China 4% Ukraine 1% Paraguay 3% Source: USDA-FAS India 3% Brazil 30%

7 Larger than expected South American soybean crop

8 Lots of soybeans coming to market 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% U.S. World Stocks-to-use ratio Projections 0% 91/92 95/96 99/00 03/04 07/08 11/12 15/16 Source: USDA-WASDE, USDA outlook

9 Some downside risk exists for soybeans $16.00 U.S. Soy Price vs Stock-to-use Price $/bu $14.00 $12.00 $10.00 $8.00 '13/14 '08/09 '09/10 '12/13 '11/12 '10/11 '07/08 '14/15 '15/16 $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Stock-to-use Source: USDA-WASDE, USDA outlook

10 Soybean forecasts differ - only way to reconcile is to have really strong demand USDA Planted acres 83.5 million Markets Planted acres 86.0 million Yield 46 bus/acre Yield 45.2 bus/acre Production 3.82 billion bus. Production 3.86 billion bus. Price $8.50 / bu Price $9.80 / bu (Nov.)

11 Soybeans is only one of the drivers for canola Canola Soybeans US$ per tonne CA$ per tonne Source: USDA, AAFC

12 Canola is influenced by the oil market

13 Palm is king in this market 70,000 Canola oil Palm oil Soybean oil 60,000 thousand tonnes 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, / / / / / / / /15 Source: USDA-FAS

14 World palm production 2014/15 Papua New Guinea 1% Colombia 1% Thailand 3% Ecuador 1% All other 6% Indonesia 53% Malaysia 31% Source: USDA-FAS Nigeria 4%

15 Weather patterns influence prices

16 The downward trend in vegetable oil prices is no longer matching trend in stocks 2,000 Palm oil Rapeseed Oil Soybean Oil 1,600 US $ per tonne 1, Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Source: USDA-FAS

17 Biodiesel mandates will come under pressure in this low fuel price environment 7 biodiesel return over operating costs soybean oil 70 $ per gallon /8/ /7/2011 1/6/2012 1/4/2013 1/24/2014 1/23/ CARD Iowa State University cents per pound

18 Focus on our Canadian canola industry

19 Our share of world canola production in 2014/15 has gone up India 10% Russia 2% United States Ukraine2% 3% All other 3% Australia 5% Canada 22% European Union 33% China 20% Source: USDA-FAS

20 Largest rapeseed exporter 2014/15 India 1% 0% European Union 4% China 0% Russia United States Ukraine 1% 14% All other 1% Australia 17% Source: USDA-FAS Canada 62%

21 World canola oil production 2014/15 Russia 2% United States 3% Japan 4% All other 8% Australia 1% Canada 12% India 9% China 23% Source: USDA-FAS European Union 38%

22 Largest exporter of canola oil 2014/15 United Arab Emirates 6% Russia 7% Ukraine United States 1% 5% All other 2% Australia 3% European Union 8% Belarus 3% Canada 65% Source: USDA-FAS

23 Canadian balance sheet for canola has returned to long-run equilibrium Thousand tonnes 20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 4,000 stocks-to-use Production Exports Crush 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 0% 2000/ / / / / / / /15 Source: Statistics Canada

24 Market moving sideways before next wave of drivers CDN$ per tonne Nov contract 2016 Nov contract Source: AAFC, ICE

25

26 China has become Canada s largest canola market

27 Chinese GDP slowing, but does it matter? 15% 13% 11% 9% Current pace 7.4% 7% 5% Source: World Bank

28 Middle class will carry more weight in the Chinese economy very rich Wealthy Middle class Poor $ income -> 40 in food spending Source: McKinsey

29 Will China oilseed imports continue to climb? 90,000 coarse grains oilseeds 75,000 60, MT 45,000 30,000 forecast 15, Source: OECD / FAO

30 Projected pace of growth in Chinese imports of meals and oils is impressive 18,000 15,000 Protein meals Vegetable oils 000 MT 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 - forecast Source: OECD / FAO

31 Can we meet the industry s 10-year targets?

32 Growth in canola yields seem to have gained speed bushel per acre Source: Statistics Canada

33 yet may undershoot target of 52 bu / acre 60 bushel per acre Source: Statistics Canada, FCC computation

34 Acres are on pace to meet target implied by yield target million acres Source: Statistics Canada, FCC computation

35 but meeting yield target may not even be a problem million acres Source: Statistics Canada, FCC computation

36 Getting the acres is a matter of relative prices and profit margins 20 Cash costs Total costs Current price ($/bu) 16 $ per bushel Spring Wheat Durum Feed Barley Canola Lentils (lg gr)* Peas (gr) Source: FCC computation

37 2015 projected growth in acres 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% -4% -8% -12% What does Canadian production plans look like in 2015? AAFC Reuters Canola Durum Wheat Barley Lentils Dry peas Source: Reuters, AAFC

38 Almost no variability in forecasts for canola 2015 projected growth in acres AAFC Reuters 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% -4% Canola Durum Wheat Barley Lentils Dry peas -8% -12% Source: Reuters, AAFC

39

40 Canola still showing good profitability Lower loonie Have oil prices bottomed out? Low interest rates to support investments Growing consumer demand

41 Consumers rule!

42 Trade matters

43