Texas and Waco: Demographic Characteristics and Trends Waco Business League April 10, 2012 Waco, TX
Growing States, 2000 2010 2000 Population* 2010 Population* Numerical Change 2000-2010 Percent Change 2000-2010 United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7% Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6% California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0% Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6% Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3% North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5% Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6% 15.7% of numerical change in U.S. Note: Population values are decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.
Year* Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950 2011 Population Numerical Change** Percent Change Natural Increase Percent Change Due to Net Migration 1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- -- 1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 24.2 93.91 6.09 1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 16.9 86.74 13.26 1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 27.1 41.58 58.42 1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 19.9 65.85 34.15 2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 22.8 49.65 50.35 2009 24,782,302 3,930,484 18.8 54.04 45.33 2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6 2011 25,674,681 529,120 2.1 54.79 44.99 All values for the decennial dates are for April 1 st of the indicated census year. Values for 2009 and 2011 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau. ** Change is from previous decade/time period Note: Residual values are not presented in this table. Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center. 3
Components of Change Texas and McLennan County, 2010 to 2011 Geographic Area Total Population Change Natural Increase Vital Events Births Deaths Total Net Migration International Domestic Texas 529,120 288,479 493,650 205,171 238,956 93,641 145,315 McLennan County 3,658 1,792 4,197 2,405 1,855 477 1,378 49% 51% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division.
Population Change in McLennan County, 1980 2010 County 1980 1990 2000 2010 McLennan 170,755 189,123 213,517 234,906 250,000 200,000 150,000 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Census Counts 1980 2010.
McLennan County Population by Year, 2000 2010 240,000 235,000 230,000 225,000 220,000 215,000 210,000 205,000 200,000 McLennan County 6 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division.
Demographic Characteristics of Waco, McLennan County and Texas Waco McLennan County Texas Population, 2010 124,805 234,906 25,145,561 Population, percent change, 2000 to 2010 9.7% 10.0% 20.6% Population, 2000 113,726 213,517 20,851,820 Persons under 5 years, percent, 2010 7.7% 7.1% 7.7% Persons under 18 years, percent, 2010 24.7% 25.4% 27.3% Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2010 11.3% 12.5% 10.3% Female persons, percent, 2010 52.1% 51.4% 50.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Census Counts 2000 and 2010. 7
Race and Ethnic Characteristics of Waco, McLennan County and Texas, 2010 McLennan Waco County Texas Percent White 59.2% 69.8% 70.4% Percent Black 21.5% 14.8% 11.8% Percent American Indian and Alaska Native 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% Percent Asian 1.8% 1.4% 3.8% Percent Native Hawaiian & Other Pacific Islander 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Percent 2 or More Races 2.8% 2.5% 2.7% Percent Hispanic (any race) 29.6% 23.6% 37.6% Percent White Not Hispanic 45.8% 58.9% 45.3% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Census Count 2010. 8
Businesses by Ownership and Retail Sales for Waco, McLennan County andtexas Waco McLennan County Texas Total number of firms, 2007 7,912 16,888 2,164,852 Black-owned firms, percent, 2007 S 5.1% 7.1% American Indian- and Alaska Native-owned firms, percent, 2007 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% Asian-owned firms, percent, 2007 S 1.6% 5.3% Hispanic-owned firms, percent, 2007 S 8.9% 20.7% Women-owned firms, percent, 2007 24.9% 28.4% 28.2% Retail sales per capita, 2007 $16,068 $12,892 $13,061 S suppressed value due to small values Source: U.S. Census Bureau. State and County QuickFacts. 9
Housing and Households for Waco, McLennan County and Texas Waco McLennan County Texas Housing units, 2010 51,452 95,124 9,977,436 Homeownership rate, 2006-2010 46.6% 60.1% 64.8% Housing units in multi-unit structures, percent, 2006-2010 38.4% 24.3% 24.1% Median value of owner-occupied housing units, 2006-2010 $86,600 $101,000 $123,500 Households, 2006-2010 44,349 82,998 8,539,206 Persons per household, 2006-2010 2.61 2.68 2.78 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. State and County QuickFacts. 10
Income and Employment Change for Waco, McLennan County and Texas Waco McLennan County Texas Per capita money income in past 12 months (2010 dollars), 2006-2010 $17,323 $20,652 $24,870 Median household income, 2006-2010 $31,288 $40,672 $49,646 Percent below poverty level, 2006-2010 28.7% 20.5% 16.8% Percent change private nonfarm employment, 2000-2009 - 4.3% 11.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. State and County QuickFacts. 11
Income and Employment Change for Waco, McLennan County and Texas, 2006 2010 Waco McLenna n County Texas Percent living in same house 1+ years 75.6% 81.1% 81.5% Percent foreign born 10.5% 8.2% 16.1% Percent age 5+ where language other than English spoken at home 23.6% 18.2% 34.2% Percent age 25+ that are High school graduates 75.5% 80.3% 80.0% Percent age 25+ with Bachelor's degree or higher 20.3% 20.6% 25.8% Mean travel time to work (minutes) for workers age 16+ 16.4 18.5 24.8 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. State and County QuickFacts. 12
Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000 2009 250,000 200,000 International State-to-State 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2000 to 2001 2001 to 2002 2002 to 2003 2003 to 2004 2004 to 2005 2005 to 2006 2006 to 2007 2007 to 2008 2008 to 2009 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Population Estimates.
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 5% 23% 28% 44% Net domestic migration Percent of Migrants to Texas by Race and Ethnicity, 2000 2009 18% 8% 15% 50% 24% International migration (848,702 migrants ) (933,083 migrants) 52% of all migrants were international 12% 40% 33% Total 67% of all migrants Other Black Hispanic White Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the 2006 2008 American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international migrants between 2000 2009 are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau.
States with Largest Estimated Unauthorized Immigrant Populations, 2010 State Estimate (thousands) Range California 2,550 (2,350-2,750) Texas 1,650 (1,450-1,850) Florida 825 (725-950) New York 625 (525-725) New Jersey 550 (425-650) Illinois 525 (425-625) Georgia 425 (300-550) Arizona 400 (275-500) 6.5% of Texas 2010 Population Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to March Supplements to the Current Population Survey (February 1, 2011). 15
Estimated Domestic Migration (2000 2008) by County as a Percentage of 2000 Population -20 to -45% -19 to -10% -9 to -5% -4 to 0% 1 to 5 % 6 to 20% 21 to 30% 31 to 65% Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center. 16
Estimated International Migration (2000 2008) by County as a Percentage of 2000 Population Legend 0-1% 1-2.5% 2.5-3.5% 3.5-5% 5-10% Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center. 17
http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html 18
Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010 2000 2010 Hispanic or Latino 32% NH Other 4% NH Black 11% NH White 53% Hispanic or Latino 38% NH Other 6% NH White 45% NH Black 11% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.
Texas White (non Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010 250000 Population 200000 150000 100000 White (non Hispanic) Hispanic 50000 0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Census Count. Age 20
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Male White, Non Hispanic Male Hispanic Male Black, Non Hispanic Male Asian, Non Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Female White, Non Hispanic Female Hispanic Female Black, Non Hispanic Female Asian, Non Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Census Count.
Texas Population Pyramid by White (non Hispanic), 2010 Male White, Non Hispanic Female White, Non Hispanic 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Census Count. 22
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year Male Hispanic Male Black, Non Hispanic Male Asian, Non Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Female Hispanic Female Black, Non Hispanic Female Asian, Non Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Census Count. 23
McLennan County Population Pyramid, 2010 85+ yrs 80 84 yrs 75 79 yrs 70 74 yrs 65 69 yrs 60 64 yrs 55 59 yrs 50 54 yrs 45 49 yrs 40 44 yrs 35 39 yrs 30 34 yrs 25 29 yrs 20 24 yrs 15 19 yrs 10 14 yrs 5 9 yrs 0 4 yrs Males Females 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Decennial Census, SF1. 24
Total Population by County, 2010 p 82-10,000 10,001-50,000 50,001-100,001 100,001-500,001 500,001-1,000,000 1,000,001-4,100,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Census Count. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center. 25
Numeric Change of Total Population by County, 2000 2010-3,200-0 1-10,000 10,001-50,000 50,001-100,000 100,001-700,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center. 26
Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2000 2040 Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections. Year 27
Projected Racial and Ethnic Population Percentages for Texas, 2000 2040 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Anglo Black Hispanic Other 0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 2000 2007 Migration Scenario. 28
Projected Population by Texas Counties, 2040 36-1000 1001-10000 10001-50000 50001-100000 100001-500000 500001-1000000 1000001-8000000 Source: Texas State Data Center. Vintage 2008 Population Projections, 2000 2007 Migration Scenario. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.
Percent Projected Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2008 2040
Race/Ethnic Composition by Education Level in the Labor Force (aged 25 years and more) for Texas, 2009 3% 19% 15% 9% 6% 8% 67% 71% College and Greater Less Than High School Source: Derived from 2009 American Community Survey 1 Year Estimates by the Office of the State Demographer. 31
Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040 35.0 30.0 30.1 29.0 28.7 28.7 25.0 23.9 Percent 20.0 15.0 18.8 18.2 12.9 10.0 5.0 5.3 4.4 0.0 No High School Diploma High School Graduate Some College Bachelor's Degree Graduate/Professional Degree 2000 2040 Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 1.0 Migration Scenario.
Percent of Persons Aged 25+ without HS Degree 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 Texas McLennan County 10.0 0.0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2010 Source: Alexander Marre, ERS, USDA 33
Percent of Persons Aged 25+ with College Degree 30 25 20 15 10 Texas McLennan County 5 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2010 Source: Alexander Marre, ERS, USDA 34
Grade 9 Longitudinal Graduation, Completion, and Dropout Rates, Class of 2010 Graduated Continued Received GED Dropped out Graduated or continued Graduated or continued, or received GED District Class Number Rate (%) Number Rate (%) Number Rate (%) Number Rate (%) Number Rate (%) Number Rate (%) Texas 314,079 264,632 84.3 22,532 7.2 3,927 1.3 22,988 7.3 287,164 91.4 291,091 92.7 Axtell ISD <100 85.2 3.3 3.3 8.2 88.5 91.8 Bosqueville ISD 49 49 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 49 100 49 100 Bruceville Eddy ISD <100 89.7 2.9 1.5 5.9 92.6 94.1 China Spring ISD <200 98.1 0 0.6 1.2 98.1 98.8 Connally ISD <150 94.6 3.9 1.6 0 98.4 100 Crawford ISD <100 96.2 1.9 1.9 0 98.1 100 La Vega ISD <200 81.2 5.3 2.4 11.2 86.5 88.8 Lorena ISD <200 89.6 1.3 1.9 7.1 90.9 92.9 Mart ISD <50 88.2 0 2.9 8.8 88.2 91.2 McGregor ISD <100 96.1 0 1.3 2.6 96.1 97.4 Midway ISD 425 405 95.3 9 2.1 6 1.4 5 1.2 414 97.4 420 98.8 Moody ISD <100 90.9 0 5.5 3.6 90.9 96.4 Riesel ISD 45 45 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 45 100 45 100 Robinson ISD 181 181 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 181 100 181 100 Waco ISD 920 678 73.7 66 7.2 14 1.5 162 17.6 744 80.9 758 82.4 West ISD <150 94.1 0.8 0 5.1 94.9 94.9 Source: Texas Education Agency 35
District name High School Graduates (2008 2009) Enrolled in College the Following Year Total high school graduates In state Out ofstate Percent Texas 264,275 134,548 14,178 56% McLennan county 2,347 1,408 62 63% Axtell ISD* 50 32 64% Bosqueville ISD* 42 30 71% Bruceville Eddy ISD* 70 44 63% China spring ISD 140 94 6 71% Connally ISD* 134 87 65% Crawford ISD* 40 31 78% La Vega ISD* 106 58 55% Lorena ISD* 99 72 73% Mart ISD* 43 21 49% McGregor ISD* 71 34 48% Midway ISD 465 316 31 75% Moody ISD* 48 27 56% Riesel ISD 32 21 66% Robinson ISD 174 110 63% Waco ISD 722 357 13 51% West ISD 111 74 67% * A small number of students in these districts enrolled in college out-of-state but numbers were masked to comply with FERPA Source: Texas Education Agency, PEIMS 36
Demographics and Destiny 37
Contact Lloyd Potter, Ph.D. Office: (512) 463 8390 or (210) 458 6530 Email: Lloyd.Potter@osd.state.tx.us Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us 38