Texas and San Antonio. imaginesanantonio Livable San Antonio Conference November 9, 2012 San Antonio, TX

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1 The Changing Population of Texas and San Antonio imaginesanantonio Livable San Antonio Conference November 9, 2012 San Antonio, TX

2 Growing States, Numerical Percent Change Change Population* Population* United States 281,421, ,745,538 27,323, % Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293, % California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382, % 0% Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818, % Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501, % North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486, % Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261, % 65% (2.8 million) of this change can be attributed to growth of the Hispanic population Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census Count. 2

3 Year* Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, Population Percent Change Due to Numerical Percent Natural Net Change Change Increase Migration ,711, ,579,677 1,868, ,196,730 1,617, ,229,191 3,032, ,986,510 2,757, ,851,820 3,865, ,782,302 3,930, ,145,561 4,293, ,674, , *All values for the decennial ldates are for April il1 st of the indicated d census year. Values for 2009 and 2011 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau. Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio. Note: Residual values are not presented in this table. 3

4 Components of Change for San Antonio MSA, 2000 to 2009 Population Births Migration County Change Deaths Foreign Domestic Atascosa 38,628 44,633 6,005 3, ,727 Bandera 17,645 20,560 2, ,689 Bexar 1,392, ,651, , ,886 29,689 96, Comal 78, ,525 36,504 4, ,179 Guadalupe 89, ,432 32,409 6,284 1,532 24,888 Kendall 23,743 34,053 10, ,171 Medina 39,304 44,728 5,424 2, ,356 Wilson 32,408 40,749 8,341 1, ,802 Total 1,711,703 2,072, , ,446 33, ,447 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Counts (2000); Estimate (2009)

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8 Texas White (non Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, g, White (non Hispanic) i Hispanic Population Under 1 year 4 years 8 years 12 years 16 years 20 years 24 years 28 years 32 years 36 years 40 years 44 years 48 years 52 years 56 years 60 years 64 years 68 years 72 years 76 years 80 years 84 years 88 years 92 years 96 years 1000 to 104 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 Age 8

9 Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 White M Hispanic M Black M Asian M Other M White F Hispanic F Black F Asian F Other F 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200, , ,000 50, , , , ,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

10 Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to , ,000 10,001-50,000 50, , , ,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census 10

11 Percent Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, %-0% 1%-10% % %-50% 50.1%-82% Population increase for Texas was 20.6% during this period Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census 11

12 Projected Population Growth in Texas, ,000,000 55,000,000 50,000,000 Migration Scenarios Zero.5 of ,000,000 40,000,000 35,000,000, 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000, Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections 12

13 Projected Population Change, Texas Counties, , ,000 2,001-10,000 10, , , ,000,000 1,000,001-3,480,000 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections Migration Scenario 13

14 Projected Percent Population Change, g, Texas Counties, LT 0% 0-40% % % % Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections Migration Scenario 14

15 Projected Population Growth in San Antonio SMSA Counties, ,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000, 1,000, , Atascosa Bandera Bexar Comal Guadelupe Kendall Medina Wilson Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections Migration Scenario 15

16 450, , , , , , ,000 50,000 Projected Population Growth in San Antonio SMSACounties Counties, Atascosa Bandera Comal Guadelupe 150,000 Kendall 0 Medina Wilson Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections Migration Scenario 16

17 Projected Population Growth in San Antonio SMSACounties Counties, , ,000 80,000 Atascosa 60,000 Bandera Kendall 40,000 Medina Wilson 20,000 0 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections Migration Scenario 17

18 Population Growth in San Antonio MSA, % Change County Bexar 988,800 1,185,394 1,392,931 1,714,773 3,180,782 85% Guadalupe 46,708 64,873 89, , , % Comal 36,446 51,832 78, , , % Wilson 16,756 22,650 32,408 42, , % Kendall 10,635 14,589 23,743 33,410 90, % Medina 23,164 27,312 39,304 46,006 89,271 94% Atascosa 25,055 30,533 38,628 44,911 87,117 94% Bandera 7,084 10,562 17,645 20,485 31,742 55% Total 1,154,648 1,407,745 1,711,703 2,142,508 4,329, % Sources: Census Counts, U.S. Census Bureau Projection, Texas State Data Center Migration Scenario

19 Demographics and Destiny 19

20 Contact Lloyd Potter, Ph.D. Office: (512) or (210) d t t t Internet: 20