EIENDOMSVERDI The housing market update August
Executive summary As is usual prices increase in August but the dichotomy between the oil region and especially Oslo widens further Volumes were slightly lower than last August, mostly due to a collapse in sales in Stavanger and a very low unsold stock in Oslo Year to date volumes remain on an All-Time high Year/Year growth in Oslo have now surpassed Tromsø Rogaland and Stavanger remains in negative territory Year/Year Unsold stock remains close to All Time low levels everywhere except in Rogaland - where it is on an All-Time high! Prices in Stavanger are now on the same levels as in mid 2012 03.09.2015 2
August the HPI up 2.5 percent 1.1 percent seasonally adjusted
Year/Year growth rate grows to 7,7%
Eiendom Norge House Price Index summary: As the weather so goes the market the market was hot in August! Seasonally adjusted prices rose 1.1 percent Year/Year growth rate falls increases again to 7.7 percent This is the strongest August since 2009 Table 1. Summary Eiendom Norge House Index Eiendom Norge Index Index (Jan 03 = 100) 229,0 Change august 2015 2,5 % Change august 2014 1,6 % Change august 2013 1,9 % Change juli 2015-1,1 % Change juni 2015 0,1 % Year over Year 7,7 % 5 Years 34,6 % Price Change since previous all time high 0,0 % Price Change since previous trough 16,1 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi
The house price index, segmented by housing types
House prices by housing types Seasonal effect are large in July and August for Detached and terraced Terraced and Detached increases by 4.0 and 4.9 percent respectively All segments saw increasing prices Table 2. Summary by property type Detached Terraced Apartments Index (Jan 03 = 100) 224,7 229,7 230,6 Change august 2015 4,9 % 4,0 % 1,1 % Change august 2014 2,6 % 1,7 % 1,1 % Change august 2013 2,7 % 3,6 % 1,2 % Change juli 2015-3,4 % -3,1 % 0,4 % Change juni 2015-0,3 % 0,1 % 0,4 % Year over Year 6,5 % 6,1 % 8,7 % 5 Years 29,2 % 29,1 % 38,8 % Price Change since previous all time high 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % Price Change since previous Trough 15,9 % 12,5 % 17,0 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi
House prices by selected counties
House prices by selected counties Probably due to seasonal effects Oslo is the weakest market in August Except for Oslo, Rogaland and Sør Trøndelag the weakest markets in August. Strongest market was Hedmark Year/Year Oslo still by far the strongest market and Rogaland still in negative territory Table 3. Summary by selected counties Oslo Hordaland Sør-Trøndelag Rogaland Nordland Vest-Agder Hedmark Index (Jan 03 = 100) 233,2 262,7 247,4 272,4 247,9 222,7 216,7 Change august 2015 1,7 % 2,5 % 2,1 % 2,1 % 3,2 % 2,8 % 3,2 % Change august 2014 1,3 % 1,6 % 1,6 % 1,3 % 1,9 % 1,4 % 2,0 % Change august 2013 1,2 % 2,2 % 2,0 % 2,0 % 2,7 % 1,8 % 2,8 % Change juli 2015 0,2 % -0,8 % -0,9 % -2,0 % -1,7 % -1,7 % -1,7 % Change juni 2015 0,7 % 0,2 % 0,0 % -0,9 % 0,2 % -0,4 % 0,3 % Year over Year 12,2 % 8,9 % 6,7 % -0,1 % 6,0 % 5,6 % 7,7 % 5 Years 44,5 % 38,2 % 42,2 % 23,7 % 36,2 % 13,1 % 28,6 % Price Change since previous all time high 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % -2,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % Price Change since previous Trough 19,9 % 18,5 % 14,9 % 5,1 % 16,2 % 12,4 % 17,7 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi
Apartments in selected cities
Summary apartments in the big cities: Although Oslo was the weakest market overall it is yet again the strongest market for apartments Stavanger continues to languish at the bottom, falling yet another month! Year over Year Oslo has now taken over the throne from Tromsø While Stavanger falls further into negative territory Prices in Stavanger is back to levels from 2012 Table 4. Summary apartments big cities Oslo Bergen Trondheim Stavanger Kristiansand Tromsø Drammen Bodø Index (Jan 03 = 100) 233,4 268,6 243,9 281,7 219,6 253,3 247,4 236,2 Change august 2015 1,5 % 1,1 % 0,7 % -0,1 % 0,8 % 0,9 % 0,7 % 1,3 % Change august 2014 1,2 % 1,3 % 1,1 % 0,7 % 0,7 % 2,2 % 1,4 % 1,4 % Change august 2013 1,0 % 1,7 % 1,3 % 0,8 % 0,8 % 2,3 % 1,2 % 1,7 % Change juli 2015 0,5 % 0,5 % 0,4 % -0,3 % 0,0 % 0,7 % 0,2 % 0,3 % Change juni 2015 0,8 % 0,4 % 0,1 % -0,9 % 0,1 % 0,0 % 0,6 % 0,1 % Year over Year 12,5 % 10,1 % 6,5 % -1,7 % 6,1 % 10,9 % 9,2 % 7,2 % 5 Years 45,6 % 42,9 % 43,6 % 23,3 % 11,3 % 52,4 % 51,6 % 42,0 % Price Change since previous all time high 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % -4,6 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % Price Change since previous Trough 75,8 % 77,1 % 80,0 % 54,8 % 31,1 % 75,8 % 83,3 % 63,2 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi
Unsold stock
Unsold stock in Oslo and Bergen
Unsold stock in Trondheim and Stavanger
Age of inventory (unsold stock)
Volumes in August falling from last year
But year to date volumes remain on an All Time high
Time on the market
Prices in Norway, UK, Sweden, Denmark and the USA Source: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Composite 20, Realkredittrådet, Hometrack, Statistics Sweden, Eiendomsverdi
Sell/ask spread: 4.0 percent
The sell-ask spread in Oslo, Trondheim, Bergen and Stavanger
Sell-ask spread in Tromsø, Drammen, Kristiansand and Bodø
Summary the sell-ask spread As is normal for August the sell/ask spread widened as bidding contests remained hot in most parts of the country Oslo is still the region with the highest spread Neither Stavanger nor Kristiansand sellers achieved their asking prices in August The average seller in Stavanger has not seen his asking prices for almost two years! Table 6 Summary (Final Selling Price - Ask Price) / Ask Price Oslo Bergen Trondheim Stavanger Kristiansand Tromsø Drammen Bodø aug. 15 8,7 % 4,8 % 2,7 % -3,6 % -0,1 % 1,8 % 5,8 % 3,2 % Average 4,9 % 4,6 % 2,6 % 2,0 % 1,4 % -0,5 % 2,2 % 1,6 % All-time high 10,6 % 11,8 % 7,8 % 10,2 % 10,0 % 4,0 % 8,2 % 5,6 % Date All time high (2005-2015) jul. 15 jan. 05 feb. 13 aug. 06 feb. 07 feb. 07 jan. 13 sep. 06 All-time low -6,4 % -5,1 % -5,9 % -6,5 % -7,1 % -8,9 % -3,3 % -7,7 % Date All time low (2005-2015) des. 08 des. 08 nov. 08 nov. 08 des. 08 okt. 08 jan. 09 des. 08 Source: Eiendomsverdi
Housing starts in Norway for July Source:SSB
12 month rolling rate Source:SSB
Eiendomsverdi s estimates: transaction prices under - estimated by 0.6 % 4,0 % 3,0 % 2,0 % 1,0 % 0,0 % -1,0 % -2,0 % -3,0 % -4,0 % -5,0 % 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Contact information Eiendomsverdi AS Trelastgaten 3 PB. 1052 Sentrum, N- 0104 Oslo Tel: 23 00 28 20 Fax: 23 00 28 30 post@eiendomsverdi.no www.eiendomsverdi.no Housing Research Sigmund Aas Tel: 23 00 28 33 E-mail: saa@eiendomsverdi.no Housing Research Anders Lund Tel: 23 00 28 37 E-Mail: al@eiendomsverdi.no