Thailand s Power Development Plan 2015 (PDP 2015) Mr. Chavalit Pichalai Director General, Energy Policy and Planning Office
Current Power Generation Status Power Generation by Fuel Type in 2014 ด เซล/น าม น Diesel/ Fuel เตาOil 1% Natural ก าซธรรมชาต Gas 64% ซ อไฟฟ Imported าพล ง น าต างประเทศ Hydro 7% ถ านห นสะอาด Clean Coal (inc. (รวมล กไนต ) Lignite) 20% SPP 10% IPP IPP Imported and Exchange น าเข าและแลกเปล ยน (3,637 MW) 7% (2,405 MW) EGAT 45% 38% (15,482 MW) (13,166 MW) (12,742 MW) Renewable พล งงาน หม นเว ยน Energy 8% รวมท งส น Total 34,690 MW MW Power Generation by Fuel Type Power Generation by Producers 1
PDP2015 Formulation Process Sub-Co omittee* Principle and Process Determination for PDP 2015 Formulation of PDP 2015 Revision Process for PDP 2015 Open Public Hearing for PDP2015 Formulation Process Bangkok Chiang Mai 29 August 2014 16 September 2014 Participants 817 Participants 625 Khon Kean 10 September 2014 Participants 650 Suratthani 19 September 2014 Participants 556 Public Hearing for Drafted PDP2015 Focused Group 8 April 2015 Participants 161 Public Hearing 28 April 2015 Participants 557 Propose to NEPC** *Sub-Committee on Load Forecast and Power Development Plan Formulation **National Energy Policy Council 2
RATIONALE of the Formulation of PDP 2015 Consideration Factors 1. Regional and Domestic economic situation which affect domestic energy consumption in Thailand such as Government s transportation infrastructure investment projects and the commencement of ASEAN Economic Community, AEC, in late 2015. 2. - National Energy Policy Council, NEPC, approved the Framework and Assumption as a principle for the formulation process of PDP2015 on the 22 nd October 2014. - Formulation of PDP2015 in accordance with the National Economic and Social Development Plan - Integration with the formulation of Energy Efficiency Development Plan, EEDP, and Alternative Energy Development Plan, AEDP. 3
RATIONALE of the Formulation of PDP 2015 3. Main Objectives PDP Integration of all Energy Development Plan Security Economy Ecology EEDP AEDP Gas Oil Integrated Regulation Scheme 1) Security Ensure the Security of all Power System Components Power Generation, Transmission and Distribution Fuel Diversification to reduce the risk of fuel dependency 2) Economy Appropriate determination of Power Tariff to reflect the primary cost 3) Ecology Reduce / Minimize Ecological Impact to Environment and Community 4
PRINCIPLE for the formulation of PDP2015 1. Fuel Diversification Reduce fuel dependence on Natural Gas Increase the fuel mixed proportion for Clean Coal Technology Higher proportion of Imported Power from Neighboring Countries Improved Renewable Energy Sources Percentage in fuel mix Nuclear Power Plant Projects at the end of PDP2015 2. Appropriate Reserve Margin at above 15 percent of peak power demand 3. Power System Infrastructure Investment Projects Transmission and Distribution Infrastructure to support the development of AEC and GMS power integration Development of Smart Grid Technology to optimize the integration of Renewable Energy Sources 4. Integration with EEDP and AEDP 5
Energy Efficiency Target for Power Sector PRINCIPLE for the formulation of PDP2015 Measure Resid ential Indus trial Business Govern ment Total (GWh) 1. ENCON Act for Designated Factories and Buildings + Specific Energy Consumption - 10,814 5,654 3,180 19,648 GWh 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000-2. Building Energy Code (BEC) - - 11,975 1,711 13,686 3. High and Minimum Energy Performance Standards (HEPs & MEPs) 8,936 6,226 7,609-23,760 4 Financial Incentive - 9,133 5,941-15,074 5. Promoting Greater Use of LED 3,354 3,303 3,711 1,264 11,632 6. Energy Efficiency Resource Standard (EERS) 1,343 2,367 2,162-5,872 Total (GWh) 13,633 31,843 37,052 7,144 89,672 89,672 GWh Government 7,144 GWh (8%) Residential 13,633 GWh (15%) Business 37,052 GWh (41%) Industrial 31,843 GWh (36%) 2015 2558 2016 2559 2017 2560 2018 2561 2019 2562 2020 2563 2021 2564 2022 2565 2023 2566 2024 2567 2025 2568 2026 2569 2027 2570 2028 2571 2029 2572 2030 2573 2031 2574 2032 2575 2033 2576 2034 2577 2035 2578 2036 2579 6
Alternative Energy Target PRINCIPLE for the formulation of PDP2015 Type Solar Wind Hydro Installed Capacity 2014 Installed Capacity 2036 Megawatts Mini Hydro (<12MW) MSW Biogas Energy Crops Biomass Total 1,298.5 224.5 2,906.4 142 65.7 311.5-2,541.8 7,490.4 6,000 3,002 2,906.4 376 500 600 680 5,570 19,634.4 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 Energy Crops Biomass Biogas MSW Hydro Wind Solar 7
PRINCIPLE for the formulation of PDP2015 Benefit of RE fuel cost to community economy Biogas (Energy Crops) Biomass MSW Total 8 Million Baht 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036
PRINCIPLE for the formulation of PDP2015 Estimation of Fuel Mix for Power Generation in PDP2015 FuelType PDP 2015 Sep2014 (percentage) 2026 (percentage) 2036 (percentage) PDP2010 rev3 2030 (percentage) ImportedHydro 7 10-15 15 20 10 Clean Coal (inc. Lignite) 20 20-25 20 25 19 Renewable 8 10-20 15 20 8 Natural Gas 64 45-50 30 40 58 Nuclear - - 0 5 5 Diesel / Fuel Oil 1 - - - TOTAL 100 100 100 100 9
Summary of PDP2015 Load Forecast from 2015-2036 GWh 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 Comparison of net Energy Consumption forecast including Energy Efficiency Measure 1. BAU Scenario includes the summation of former and current Energy Efficiency Measure at 22,456 GWh 326,244 393,335 326,119 250,000 Hamburger Crisis 291,519 200,000 150,000 2. พล งงานไฟฟ 2. าท ลดลงตามมาตรการในแผนอน ร กษ พล งงาน Energy Consumption Reduction from Energy Efficiency จากกรณ BAU (GWh) Compared to BAU Scenario (GWh) 2558 2559 2564 2569 100,000 2574 2579 Base 2015-2016 -548 2021-7,969 2026-20,119 2031-38,446 2036-67,216 50,000 Base - -548-7,969-20,119-38,446-67,216-1 +2 = 89,672 GWh 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 10
Summary of PDP2015 Megawatts เมกะว ตต 70,000 Comparison of net Power Consumption forecast including Energy Efficiency Measure 65,000 60,000 59,300 55,000 9,645 50,000 45,000 40,000 Hamburger Crisis 49,457 44,424 49,655 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 พล งไฟฟ าส งส ดท ลดลงตามแผนอน ร กษ พล งงาน จากกรณ BAU (MW) Investment Saving for 10,000 MW in 2036 2558 2559 2564 2569 2574 2579 or 500 MW/yr throughout the plan Base - -86-1,218-2,964-5,554-9,645 15,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 11
Summary of PDP2015 Installed Capacity 2015-2036 Installed Capacity at the end of 2014 New Installed Capacity Retired Installed Capacity at the end of 2036 PDP2015 37,612 57,459-24,736 70,335 Unit : Megawatts New Installed Capacity 2015-2036 Total Clean Coal Technology Natural Gas Nuclear Gas Turbine Cogeneration Renewable Pumped Storage Hydropower Imported TOTAL 7,390 (9 Plants) 17,478 (15 Plants) 2,000 (2 Plants) 1,250 (5 Plants) 4,119 12,105 2,101 11,016 57,459 12
Summary of PDP2015 MWh ล านหน วย 350,000 Fuel Mix by Energy Generation 300,000 18% พล งงาน Renewable หม นเว ยน 250,000 16% 2% พล งน า 2% Hydropower ใหญ ไทย พล งน า 15% Imported Hydropower ต างประเทศ 200,000 9% 150,000 7% 3% 6% 51% 37% ก าซ Natural ธรรมชาต Gas 64% 100,000 50,000 0 15% 9% 6% 10% 7% 5% 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2558 2560 2562 2564 2566 2568 2570 2572 2574 2576 2578 17% Import ถ านห น Coal น าเข า Lignite ล กไนต น วเคล ยร Nuclear 13
Carbon Emission kgco 2 /kwh 0.600 0.500 2013 0.506 0.400 0.300 0.200 0.100 0.000 kton 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 Summary of PDP2015 Comparison of Carbon Emission per unit PDP2010 Rev3 0.385 PDP2015 0.319 133,539 104,075 2013 2556 2014 2557 2015 2558 2016 2559 2017 2560 2018 2561 2019 2562 2020 2563 2021 2564 2022 2565 2023 2566 2024 2567 2025 2568 2026 2569 2027 2570 2028 2571 2029 2572 2030 2573 2031 2574 2032 2575 2033 2576 2034 2577 2035 2578 2036 2579 2013 89,678 Comparison of Accumulate Carbon Emission PDP2010 Rev3 PDP2015 14
Estimation of retailed power tariff Summary of PDP2015 Baht/kWh 7.0 6.0 Lev. price 2015-2036 = 4.587 Baht/kWh (Average Growth = 1.89%) (Discount Rate = 10%) Levelised Transmission and Distribution Cost = 0.52 5.0 4.0 3.0 3.75 3.92 3.71 4.59 5.26 Levelised Fuel Cost= 2.16 VSPP Levelised = 0.59 5.55 2.0 1.0 Levelised Capital Cost = 1.32 0.0 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 15
Summary of PDP2015 Reserve Margin 45% High portion of Reserve Margin (RM) 40% PDP 2015 GDP Growth Rate slows down 39.4% from average 4.49 to 3.94 37.1% 36.6% 36.3% 36.1% percent/year 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 24.7% 16.4% 34.9% 35.2% 33.9% 33.8% 33.2% 32.5% 34.7% 33.8% 32.0% 21.4% PDP 2010 rev. 3 35.1% 34.7% 37.4% 32.9% EE50% 34.1% 30.4% 19.6% 18.7% 18.1% 17.8% 16.9% 16.4% 16.5% 16.3% 30.4% 24.8% 24.6% Improved Energy Efficiency Measure for PDP2015 at 100 percent compared to former version at 20 percent 20.5% 19.7% 18.4% 16.5% 16.2%16.4% 16.4% 16.2% 18.5% 16.3% 15.3% 15.6% 15.4% 17.3% 15.3% 15.2% 15.2% 15.2% 15.2% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.3% 15.3% 5% 0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 16
Key Success factors from PDP2015 1. Key measure to decrease reserve margin is so difficult because many projects are binded from the previous PDP plan. 2.Emphasize on energy efficiency, renewable energy and fuel diversification to increase security and decrease environmental impacts, especially the global warming. 3. Retailed power tariff is appropriated reflecting the primary cost. 4. The Committee on Energy Policy Administration is assigned by the National Energy Policy Council, NEPC, to find out the measure to solve high reserve margin. 17