23 September 2013 UNESCAP Bangkok, Thailand. Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning: OTP, Ministry of Transport, THAILAND

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1 Inland Transport CO 2 Emissions- Situation and Status in Thailand Malee Uabharadorn, PhD Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Panning Ministry of Transport 23 September 2013 UNESCAP Bangkok, Thailand Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning: OTP, Ministry of Transport, THAILAND

2 Thailand NAMA Development สถานการณ พละงงานของปร เทศ Green Economy กะบภาคพละงงาน with Energy Sector Fuel - การเพ มสะดส วนพละงงานทดแทน Substitution in Transportation Environmental - การอน ระกษ พละงงาน Sustainable Transportation

3 NAMAsunder UNFCCC (Unilateral NAMAs) Domestic NAMAs Internationally Supported NAMAs Twokinds of NAMAs have been defined under UNFCCC: Domestic means (unilateral NAMAs) and Internationally supported to cover NAMA costs(supported NAMAs). A thirdoption would credit emission reductionsand make them tradable on the carbon market (credited NAMAs), which is not clear today.

4 Thailand NAMAs is the Climate Change Policy Management which clarify on Climate Change and National Development Strategies NAMAs should be clearly focusing on the Measured, Reported, and Verified (MRV)

5 Thailand s NAMAs is not the new GHFs..but Currently, Thailand has proposed regulations/standards on energy efficiency and 25% targeted in Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP). These could be NAMAs. Feed-in Tariff (FiTs) in Thailand since 2007 is policy instrument to promote RE, and can be a part of NAMAs. Policy-based Instrument will be a part of Thailand s NAMAs;.Carbon Tax Collection

6 Thailand NAMAs is supporting to build up; 1. The private co-investment in lowcarbon development. 2. To create the new investment on Renewable Energy (RE) and Efficient use of Energy (EE). 3. Thailand NAMAs can apply as the multi-sector strategy by importing the Government Policy which includes

7 Thailand s NAMAs: Best Practices and Process Three-tiered NAMA development 1. N A M A Conception Phase Con cept developm ent Output: N A M A Concept / N A M A Concept N ote 2. NAM A I mplementation Phase Concept elaboration 3. NAM A Operation Phase Concept evaluation Three-tiered NAMA development

8 Thailand NAMAs where the budget comes from? Estimated budgets spent on NAMA actions in the NAMA period (up to 2020) CO 2 Countermeasures in Thailands NAMAs Renewable Electricity Generation (DEDE) Energy Efficiency in Buildings and Industries (DEDE) Bio-diesel in the transport sector (DEDE) Environmental Sustainable Transport (OTP) Estimated budget (M Baht) 224,600 a 4,800 b 890 c 990,000 d Sources: a Estimated from subsidy spent on feed-in tariffs (DEDE). b Estimated from budgets spent on energy efficiency promotion (EPPO). c Estimated from budgets spent on bio-diesel promotion (DEDE), Excluded R&D. d Report on Environmental Sustainable Transport (OTP-MOT). Answer from Ministry of ENERGY only

9 NAMA WEB Registry is online in 2013: Voluntary base Financial matching: develop vs developing countries UNFCCC NAMA Registry is voluntary web-based match-making platform for developing countries to propose NAMAs by seeking International support NAMA CO-ordinator and supporting country may request more additional detail documents to make it s own understanding on CO 2 Emission to creating more understanding on (NAMA actions and NAMA MRV) by access to UNFCCC NAMA Registry

10 Sept 2012, there were 54 NAMAs in 25 countries at different stages of development. More than 75% of all NAMAs are national initiatives, involving plans (47%), programs (20%), and projects (15%)

11 UNFCCC NAMA Pipeline The majority of NAMAs was based in Latin America (46%), Africa (42%), while only 12% were located in Asia. NAMAs by regions

12 Thailand Sectoral distribution of NAMAs, Oct 2012

13 Development of Thailand NAMAs Thailand CO2 emissions by sectors in 2000 Waste Management, 4.07% Forestry, -3.44% Including Transport Energy, 69.57% Agriculture & Livestock, 22.64% Industrial Process, 7.15% Source: Thailand s Second National Communication, (ONEP, 2011)

14 1. Renewable Electricity (AEDP25%) 2. Energy Efficiency in Buildings & Industries 3. Bio-fuels for transportation (AEDP25%) 4. Environmental Sustainable Transport

16 EE RE Energy conservation Target to EE 20 years: Reduce Energy s Intensity (EI) of the energy usage By reduction to 25% within 20 years By the year 2020 must increase Energy Saving 38,200 ktoe Energy Renewable Target to AEDP Proportion of renewable energy: total energy usage to 25% within 10 years In the form of Electricity, Heat, and Biofuels

17 Sectoral Energy Consumption in Thailand in the BAU 2020 Final Energy Consumption (ktoe)

18 CO 2 Emissions in the BAU , , ,000 TotalCO 2 emissions (kt-co 2 ) PDP2007 Forecast: BAU 367 Mt 331 Mt 250, ,000 Recent Forecast in , ,000 50, Note : PDP = Thailand s Power Development Plan.

19 Premium FiTs for RE electricity generation in AEDP 25% (2012 updated) Renewable Energy Adder price (Baht/kWh)* 20% target (2011 ) 25% new target Biomass ,700 MW 3,630 MW 2.Biogas MW 600 MW 3. Waste MW 160 MW 4. Wind MW 1,200 MW 5. Hydropower MW 1,608 MW 6. Solar MW 2,000 MW 7.Others MW Total Capacity 5,604 MW 9,201 MW Source : Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP) Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE, 2012).

20 Domestic vs Internationally Supported NAMAs Abatement Cost (US$/t-CO 2 ) 10$/t-CO 2

21 Increasing the percentage renewable energy Adjustment on proper AEDP Original target New target Ethanol 9 Million Litres/day Remain as ever 9 Mil liter/day 5.97 Million Increase 1.23 Biodiesel Litres/day Mil liters/day 7.2 Mil liter/day Targeted support to use B10 New energy replaces to Diesel (BHD) 25 mil liters/day decrease 22 mil liters/day 3 mil liters/day Currently suitable to the development of bio-fuels Compress Biogas (CBG) - Increase new target 1,200 ton/day Encourage CBG to substitute NGV In Transport sector With total 200 stations ( 6 ton/day)

22 Potential of CO 2 Mitigation in 2020 NAMAs AEDP RE power CO 2 Countermeasures CO 2 reduction in 2020 (kt-co 2 ) Domestic NAMAs RE Power (Low MAC) 2,568 Sub-total 2.6 Mt-CO 2 Internationally supported NAMAs RE Power (High MAC) 13,456 Sub-total 13.5 Mt-CO 2 Total Domestic and Supported NAMAs 16.0 Mt-CO 2

23 Potential of CO 2 Mitigation in 2020 Large Buildings and Industries NAMAs CO 2 Countermeasures CO 2 reduction in 2020 (kt-co 2 ) Domestic NAMAs EE Industries (Low MAC) 4,762 EE Building Codes 5,909 Sub-total 8.3 Mt-CO 2 Supported NAMAs EE Industries (High MAC) 9,743 Sub-total 9.7 Mt-CO 2 Total Domestic and Supported NAMAs 20.4 Mt-CO 2

24 สถานการณ พละงงานของปร เทศ Thailand NAMA Development Green Economy กะบภาคพละงงาน Green Economy with Energy Sector Fuel - การเพ มสะดส วนพละงงานทดแทน Substitution in Transportation Environmental - การอน ระกษ พละงงาน Sustainable Transportation

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26 Potential of CO 2 mitigation in 2020 NAMAs Domestic NAMAs CO 2 Countermeasures CO 2 reduction in 2020 (kt-co 2 ) Transport/Ethanol (AEDP) 5,069 Transport/Biodiesel 1 st Gen 5,022 Supported NAMAs Sub-total 10.0 Mt-CO 2 Transport/Biodiesel 2 nd Gen 14,459 Sub-total 14.5 Mt-CO 2 Total Domestic and Supported NAMAs 24.5 Mt-CO 2

27 Potential of CO 2 Mitigation in NAMAs Environmental Sustainable Transportation by OTP 1. Modal shift 2. Fuel economy improvement 3. Sustainable transport system

28 NAMAs Supported NAMAs CO 2 Countermeasures CO 2 reduction in 2020 (kt-co 2 ) Environmental Sustainable Transport 12,000 Sub-total 12.0 Mt-CO 2 Total Supported NAMAs 12.0 Mt-CO 2

29 Scenarios of CO 2 Mitigation in Thailand NAMAs NAMAs CO 2 reduction in 2020 CO 2 Countermeasures kt-co2 % % % Scenario I (High Potential) Scenario II Scenario III RE Power (MAC) 2,568 EE Industries (MAC & Large) 4,762 Building Codes (Large) 5,909 80% achieved Domestic Transport/Ethanol 5,069 NAMAs Transport/Biodiesel 1 st Gen 5,022 Sub-total (Mt-CO 2 ) 23, RE Power (MAC) 13,456 Inter. EE Industries (MAC & Large) 9,743 50% achieved Supported Transport/Biodiesel 2 nd Gen & 14,459 50% achieved CBG for transportation NAMAs Environmental Sustainable 12,000 Transport (แผนแม บท สนข) Sub-total (Mt-CO 2 ) 49, Total Domestic and Supported NAMAs 72, Total emissions in 2005 (energy only) 192,724 Total emissions in 2020 (energy only) 367,437

30 Year DoPED* Energy Intensity (toe/1000 USD) CO 2 Intensity (t-co 2 /USD) BAU NAMA +10.7% -17.9% -18.3% * DoPED: Diversification of primary energy demand

31 Thailand s NAMAs CO 2 Counter-measures RE: Biomass, biogas, hydro, Solar, Wind, Waste-to-energy etc. EEin Industries, Buildings, Transportation Bio-Fuelsand alternative energy sources Environmental Sustainable Transport System Thailand will endeavor to lower CO 2 emissions in the range of 7-20% in compared to the BAU

33 Mega Project on Thailand Infrastructure Development with USD 67 Billion 17.89% 52.16% 28.90% Source: Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning: OTP

34 The Infrastructure Development Programs Customs 418 Source: OTP

35 Encourage energy security by deloping transport connecting with the neighboring countries New urban communities emerging by using efficiency energy tith fossil fuel reduction Source: OTP

36 Million tons 3 rd version of PDP2010 Diesell/Renewal energy Natural Gas Import Coal Lignite Nuclear

37 Energy Saving from Thailand Transport 2.2 Infrastructure โครงการลงท น 2 ล านล านบาท Development USD ตาม Country 67 Billion Strategy Outcome: Support transport energy efficiency, ผลละพธ ท ได ช วยสนะบสน น ปร ส ทธ ภาพพละงงานในภาคขนส ง reduce the ลดการใช /การน าเข าเช อเพล งฟอสซ ล import and usage of FOSSIL FUEL Rural Highways Motorways Railway double track Mass Rapid Transit BTS Reduce the LOST from using the fossil fuel not less than 100,000 Million Baht/year Source: OTP

38 OTP: Sample on Testing Analysis of Vehicle Emissions Emissions of pollutants released by Transport sector in 2011, Based on outputs from the transport models, National Model (NAM) and Extened Bangkok Urban Model (ebum) Unit: M tonnes Emission NAM ebum Hydrocarbon (HC) Carbon monoxide (CO) Nitrogen oxides (NO x ) Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) Remark: Results shown are directly output from Transport Model, These figures have to be further clibrated against the Ministry of Energy s figure

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