CERES INVESTOR SUMMIT ON CLIMATE RISK NEW YORK, UN HEADQUARTERS 15 JANUARY 2014 Michael Liebreich, Chief Executive Bloomberg New Energy Finance Twitter: @MLiebreich // / / / 1
NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY 2004 13 ($BN) 21% $318bn -9% $289bn -12% 17% 34% 0.6% $195bn $196bn $262bn $254bn 44% $167bn 46% $55bn 45% $80bn $116bn 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). 2
NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY TOP COUNTRIES 2013 ($BN) AND % CHANGE ON 2012 China 61.3-4% United States 48.4-9% Japan 35.4 56% Germany United Kingdom 14.1 13.1-46% -9% India Canada Australia South Africa* France Italy Brazil 7.8 7.5 5.4 4.9 4.1 4.1 3.4 3% 33% -4% -14% -33% -73% -52% Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. *South Africa excludes R&D investment 3
LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY, H1 2014 ($/MWH) Marine - wave Marine - tidal STEG - LFR STEG - parabolic trough STEG - tower & heliostat Wind - offshore PV - thin film PV - c-si PV - c-si tracking Biomass - anaerobic digestion Biomass - gasification Biomass - incineration Municipal solid waste Geothermal - binary plant Wind - onshore Small hydro Large hydro Landfill gas Geothermal - flash plant Natural gas CCGT Coal fired CHP Nuclear PV projects as low as $80/MWh Onshore wind as low as $37/MWh 0 100 200 300 400 500 1037 844 Q2 2013 central H1 2014 central Fossil technologies: US China Europe Australia Note: LCOEs for coal and CCGTs in Europe and Australia assume a carbon price of $20/t. No carbon prices are assumed for China and the US. 4
CLEAN ENERGY NEW BUILD INSTALLATIONS, 2001-13 (GW) 2011-2013 Investment down 20% Installations up 2% 5
CLEAN ENERGY NEW BUILD INSTALLATIONS, 2001-15 (GW) 2015-2015 Installations forecast to grow 37% 6
NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX 2011 2014 YTD 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 NEX NASDAQ S&P 500 Note: Values as of 06 January 2014; NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2011 7
NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX 2013 2014 YTD 200 180 160 140 120 100 NEX NASDAQ S&P 500 80 60 40 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Note: Values as of 06 January 2014; NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2013 8
PUBLIC MARKET NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY Q1 2004 Q4 2013 ($BN) 13.7 0.2 0.10.04 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.7 2.6 1.8 4.2 1.3 4.3 4.0 3.3 3.4 1.6 7.0 2.8 1.1 0.4 4.8 4.1 5.8 1.4 3.2 3.7 5.5 4.6 4.9 1.5 1.1 0.9 1.4 1.8 0.6 1.2 4.1 2.2 5.4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Four quarter running average 9
2013: TESLA A BIG DEAL Picture credits: Tesla 10
2014: NEST ANOTHER BIG DEAL Source: Nest 11
2011: WARREN BUFFET BIG CLEAN ENERGY INVESTOR Source: Bloomberg 12
QUOTE CLEAN ENERGY LIQUIDITY VEHICLE IPOs, 2013 ($M) 10% 8% 5% 3% 240 167 yield 200 196 460 431 200 240 352 0% Jan 13 100 Mar 13 Jun 13 Sep 13 Dec 13 Esoteric REITs YieldCo UK Fund Note: UK-based fund yields based on prospectus target values and are relative to current share prices. In general these funds are ramping up to those targets, thus initial yields will be lower. G Yield s dividend yield based on their Q3 2014 target value of $1.45/share at current share price. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 13
CLEAN ENERGY PROJECT BONDS, 2011-2013 (YIELD, SIZE) Coupon Coupon (%) (%) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Desert Desert Sunlight Sunlight Baldwin, Baldwin, (U), (U), NAIC NAIC 2 Granite Granite Reliable Reliable Power, Power, BB BB Genesis Genesis (U), (U), A- A- Genesis Genesis (G), (G), AAA AAA Desert Desert Sunlight Sunlight (G), (G), AAA AAA Granite Granite Reliable Reliable Power, Power, AAA AAA Arlington Arlington Valley Valley II, II, (implied) (implied) Oaxaca Oaxaca IV, IV, Oaxaca Oaxaca II, II, Topaz, Topaz, Mount Mount Antelope Antelope Valley, Valley, Signal, Signal, L'Erable, L'Erable, Comber Comber, St St Clair, Clair, BBB BBB BBB BBB Solar Solar Power Power Generation Generation Ltd, Ltd, Westmill Westmill Solar Solar Cooperative, Cooperative, Topaz Topaz II, II, BBB BBB Foresight Foresight Group, Group, SolarCity LMC, 0 Jan Jan 11 11 Jul Jul 11 11 Feb Feb 12 12 Aug Aug 12 12 Mar Mar 13 13 Sep Sep 13 13 Geothermal Geothermal Solar Solar thermal thermal PV PV Wind Wind $100m $100m Note: data on disclosed deals, additional deals may have closed that were not made public 14
ENERGY-RELATED GREEN BONDS, 2007-2014 ($BN) 16 CREB 14 12 10 Other government QECB 8 6 4 Corporate ringfenced Project bonds 2 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Note: YTD is to 15 January 2014 YTD Supranational 15
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