Potential Cost Impacts of a Vermont Renewable Portfolio Standard. Presented to the Vermont RPS Collaborative
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1 Potential Cost Impacts of a Vermont Renewable Portfolio Standard Tim Woolf Synapse Energy Economics 22 Pearl Street, Cambridge, MA Presented to the Vermont RPS Collaborative September 11, 2003 Synapse Energy Economics 1
2 Outline of Presentation This presentation is a summary of the report, Potential Cost Impacts of a Vermont Renewable Portfolio Standard, prepared by Synapse for the Vermont Public Service Board, September9, Methodology for the analysis. Assumptions used to estimate wholesale market prices. Assumptions used to estimate the cost and availability of renewables. Supply curve of renewables for the Vermont RPS Supply curve of renewables for the New England RPS market. Results: cost impacts of a Vermont RPS. Synapse Energy Economics 2
3 Overall Methodology Estimate the wholesale market price in New England. This represents the revenues that renewable generators can get for the commodity portion of the electricity. Estimate the demand for renewables in VT and New England. Estimate the cost of building and operating renewable resources that are eligible for the VT RPS. Develop a supply curve of eligible renewable resources. Identify the mix and cost of renewables that would meet the RPS demand. The cost of the RPS is equal to the difference between the wholesale market price and the cost of the renewables. Synapse Energy Economics 3
4 Assumptions Regarding the Vermont RPS Only new renewables will be eligible for the Vermont RPS. Renewable resources eligible for the VT RPS: wind, solar, landfill gas, hydro (<80 MW), and biomass (co-firing, expansion of existing facilities, dedicated biomass facilities). Renewable resources from New York and Canada are eligible. Assumes that there will be a satisfactory way to demonstrate compliance. Analyze three RPS targets: Half percent per year, One percent per year, Two percent per year, Synapse Energy Economics 4
5 Demand for Renewables: Assumptions Many of the renewable types are eligible in MA and CT RSP, as well a the VT RPS. Therefore, the market for these renewables types will be New England-wide. To determine the New England renewables demand, we add the RPS requirements of MA, CT, and VT. We also add an estimate of the demand for green power. We do not include the demand for the Maine RPS, because that allows existing renewables to be eligible, and there are enough existing to meet the entire RPS target. Synapse Energy Economics 5
6 Demand for Renewables: Results Table 4.1 Renewable Energy Required By Three Illustrative Vermont RPS Targets (GWh) Half Percent One Percent Two Percent ,049 1,195 1,345 Table 4.2 Renewable Energy Required to Meet New England Renewable Energy Demand (GWh) VT (One Percent) Massachusetts ,689 1,999 2, ,585 4,246 4,915 5,601 6,304 Connecticut 644 1,142 1,655 2,016 2,387 2,425 2,462 2,493 2,526 2,558 Green Power Total New England 2,193 3,101 4,036 4,831 5, ,560 8, ,085 Synapse Energy Economics 6
7 Demand for Renewables: Vermont vs. New England The VT RPS has a less restrictive eligibility definition than Massachusetts and Connecticut. VT-only renewables: small hydro, plus certain types of biomass (expansion of existing facilities, coal co-firing, anaerobic digestion). This creates a separate market for VT RECs for these renewable types. The VT-only renewables are expected to be plentiful and lowcost: enough to meet the entire VT RPS demand. We analyze the cost impacts if these VT-only renewables were to be excluded from the VT RPS. Synapse Energy Economics 7
8 RPS Resource Eligibility in New England States Wind Solar PV Landfill Gas Biomass Gasification Biomass Co-Firing w/coal Biomass Co-Firing w/natural Gas Biomass Direct Combustion Inc. Capacity at Existing Biomass Plants Manure Digestion Waste to Energy Fuel Cells New ROR Hydro <= 5 MW New Hydro <= 80 MW Hydro Upgrades and Repowering Massachusetts Connecticut Class I Connecticut Class II Vermont Synapse Energy Economics 8
9 Wholesale Market Price Assumptions Estimate the 2004 market price using the futures market. Natsource data for the energy market: $40.6/MWh. Assume that a generic new natural gas combined-cycle plant will need to be built in New England in 2010, and that this plant represents a proxy for the wholesale price in that year. Natural gas forecast: based on NEMX futures for Henry Hub, adjusted for New England. Growth thereafter based on AEO 2003 forecast. Cost of new NGCC in 2010: $52.4/MWh. Assume that market prices increase linearly from 2004 through 2010, with modest growth rate after Synapse Energy Economics 9
10 Summary of Renewable Costs: Vermont-Only Renewable Energy Cost ($/MWh) Wholesale Market Price Bio Existing Hydro - Dam Hydro - Repower Hydro - Upgrade Quebec 10 Hydro - New Quebec 0 Manure Digestion Year Synapse Energy Economics 10
11 Summary of Renewable Costs: New England RPS Renewable Energy Cost ($/MWh) Wind - Generic Wind - Specific Wind - Offshore Wind - Quebec Imports - New York Bio Co-fire NG Landfill Gas Small Landfill Gas Wholesale Market Price Year Synapse Energy Economics 11
12 Vermont Renewable Supply Curve in Cost ($/MWh) Supply VT Demand Energy (GWh) Synapse Energy Economics 12
13 Vermont Renewable Supply in Cost ($/MWh) Supply VT Demand ,000 1,500 2,000 Ene r gy (GWh) Synapse Energy Economics 13
14 Mix of Renewables Supplying the Vermont RPS Synapse Energy Economics 14
15 New England Renewable Supply in Cost ($/MWh) Supply Total Demand ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Energy (GWh) Synapse Energy Economics 15
16 New England Renewable Supply in Cost ($/MWh) Supply Total Demand ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 Energy (GWh) Synapse Energy Economics 16
17 Mix of Renewables Supplying the New England RPS Synapse Energy Economics 17
18 Results: VT RPS target of 1% per year 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% Retail Cost Impact 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% -0.4% NE: Marginal NE: Average VT-Only: Marginal VT-Only: Average -0.6% -0.8% Synapse Energy Economics 18
19 Results: VT RPS target of 0.5% per year 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% Retail Cost Impact 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% NE: Marginal NE: Average VT-Only: Marginal VT-Only: Average -0.3% -0.4% -0.5% Synapse Energy Economics 19
20 Results: VT RPS target of 2% per year 2.0% 1.5% Retail Cost Impact 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% NE: Marginal NE: Average VT-Only: Marginal VT-Only: Average -1.0% -1.5% Synapse Energy Economics 20
21 Results: VT RPS target 1%; Low Wholesale Prices 1.8% 1.6% Retail Cost Impact 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% NE: Marginal NE: Average VT-Only: Marginal VT-Only: Average 0.0% Synapse Energy Economics 21
22 Results: VT RPS target 1%; High Wholesale Prices 0.4% 0.2% Retail Cost Impact 0.0% -0.2% -0.4% -0.6% -0.8% -1.0% NE: Marginal NE: Average VT-Only: Marginal VT-Only: Average -1.2% -1.4% -1.6% Synapse Energy Economics 22
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