Nivesh Currency From 26-30 December, 2016 Important Highlights BOJ kept its benchmark lending rate negative and unchanged at - 0.1% and its 10-year Japanese government bond yield target at around zero. It also said it would continue to buy Japanese government bonds at the previous pace of around 80 trillion yen a year. U.S. gross domestic product rose by 3.5% in the third quarter, reflecting an upward revision from the previously reported 3.2% increase. U.S. unemployment claims edged up to 275,000 for the week ended Dec 17. This was up 21,000 from the previous week's unrevised total of 254,000. U.K. current account balance fell to a seasonally adjusted -25.5B, from - 22.1B in the preceding month whose figure was revised up from - 25.9B. German business climate rose to 111.0, from 110.4 in the preceding month. U.K. Public Sector Net Borrowing rose to a seasonally adjusted 12.21B, from 4.32B in the preceding quarter whose figure was revised up from 4.30B. U.S. CB Leading Index remained unchanged at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.0%, from 0.1% in the preceding month. U.K. Office for National Statistics said that GDP rose to 0.6%, from 0.5% in the preceding quarter. U.K. current account balance fell to a seasonally adjusted -25.5B, from - 22.1B in the preceding month whose figure was revised up from - 25.9B. Weekly Change & Technical levels NSE/BSE/MSEI December Future Currency LTP Wk % Pair Change R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2 USDINR 67.80 0.03 68.2667 68.4833 68.1333 67.9167 67.7833 EURINR 70.89-0.07 71.5567 71.8833 71.2233 70.8967 70.5633 GBPINR 83.16-1.46 84.7033 85.7867 84.1267 83.0433 82.4667 JPYINR 57.82 0.61 58.5167 58.9033 58.1833 57.7967 57.4633 Currency against U.S. dollar Currency LTP Wk % Pair Change R1 R2 S1 S2 Trend DOLLAR INDEX 102.95-0.19 103.5633 104.126 102.493 101.986 Bullish EURUSD 1.0456 0.40 1.0521 1.0587 1.0370 1.0285 Recovery GBPUSD 1.2286-1.65 1.2456 1.2620 1.2177 1.2062 Bearish USDJPY 117.34-0.72 118.2467 119.143 116.486 115.623 Bearish Foreign exchange reserves, in billion $ December 16, 2016 Change in$ (Wk) Total Reserves $360.60bln Down $2.23bln Seema Yadav Research Analyst Tel: +91-0731-4262702 seema.yadav@indianivesh.in IndiaNivesh Securities Limited SEBI Registration No.INH000000511 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800
USD-INR January Future LTP Sell around 1 Target 2 Target Stop loss 68.07 68.35-68.40 68.00 67.75 68.65 Dollar/Rupee had neutral to slightly negative move last week; pair retraced from the weekly high 68.0950 as some foreign banks including Bank of America undertook selling activities following to the weakness in the dollar index. However trading range remained subdued and after hitting a low of 67.75 settled at 67.8175 levels. Technical, weekly price action resulted in formation of doji candle stick which is indicating for relatively neutral to volatile trend. On the Upside, 68.65 will act as an strong resistance and pair would need to break it in order to test 68.85-69.20, else any rise towards 68.35-68.40 could attract temporary correction before next any bullish move. Dollar Index Dollar retraced from the weekly high 103.63, and tested 102.55 before closing at 102.95 on the back of profit booking after hitting 14- year highs. Greenback has gained sharply in sessions following Federal Reserve's December monetary policy meet where the US central bank raised rates and hinted at three more rate increases in 2017. Trading range remained neutral ahead of year-end holidays. Technically, weekly price action resulted in formation of shooting star candle stick which is indicating for temporary correction in near term. That would be limited towards 101.70-101.20 as long term trend still positive following to on strong breakout of six month consolidation. On the other hand, massive resistance is seen at 103.65 and dollar index would need to break it in order to test 104.35.
EUR-INR January Future LTP Sell below 1 Target 2 Target Stop loss 71.22 70.90 70.45 70.10 71.25 After weakens towards 70.56 in start of the week, EURINR saw slightly pullback towards 71.2625 levels as investors covered their short positions amid lack of fresh triggers. Pair saw little fight between short-covering pressure and political anxiety. Sell strategy given below 70.80 was initiated but EURINR failed to hit predicted level of 70.25. Technical, weekly price action resulted in formation of high wave candle stick which is indicating for momentum recovery before next bearish move. However, there is crucial support 70.90 and break below could extend the recent bearish trend towards 70.10-69.65. GBP-INR January Future LTP Sell below 1 Target 2 Target Stop loss 83.59 83.50 83.00 82.65 83.78 GBPINR extended its recent downtrend trend and tested 83.1225 lowest levels after 12 November 2016. Technically, as per the sell strategy given below 84.20 was successful and pair was able to hit both predicted levels 83.80 and 83.30. Now the three consecutive weekly fall is forming three crows candle stick pattern which yet indicating for new bearishness in GBPINR. This week, a break below 83.10 will extend the recent loss and pair may test 82.60-82.00
JPY-INR January Future LTP Buy above 1 Target 2 Target Stop loss 58.13 58.15 58.60 58.90 57.85 Yen snapped two-day gains against the dollar post the release of the Bank of Japan monetary policy. Bank of Japan raised its assessment of the economy for the first time since May 2015, closing a turbulent year on a positive note as it stood pat on monetary policy amid lackluster trading in global financial markets ahead of year-end holidays. Technically, on the weekly price action resulted in formation of bullish harami candle stick pattern which creating probability for short term recovery. On the other hand, crucial support is seen at 57.85 and below this level only will expect to test 57.20-56.65. High Impact Economic Data & Events Schedule during the week Date Time Currency Economic Indicators Forecast Previous Impact 27.12.16 5:00am JPY Household Spending y/y 0.20% -0.40% Positive JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y -0.40% -0.40% Neutral 8:30pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 108.9 107.1 Positive 28.12.16 8:30pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m 0.60% 0.10% Positive 29.12.16 2:30pm EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 4.40% 4.40% Neutral 7:00pm USD Unemployment Claims 277K 275K Negative 30.12.16 1:30pm EUR Spanish Flash CPI y/y 0.90% 0.70% Positive 8:15pm USD Chicago PMI 56.5 57.6 Negative Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar. Technical Chart Source: Tickerplant *DOS- Depends on statement. DOV- Depends on Votes. DOR- Depends on Report.
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