CONSUMER DRIVERS OF FRESH FOOD GROWTH Sarah Schmansky Nielsen Perishables Group
WHAT S DRIVING FRESH GROWTH AND HOW DO WE CAPITALIZE? Consumer demand for fresh is driving retailer strategies Consumers drawn to four main product groups across fresh Innovation and consumer switching driving evolution of developed categories Core shopper groups impacting fresh performance differently What top fresh retailers have in common 2
CONSUMER DEMAND FOR FRESH IS DRIVING RETAILER STRATEGIES
CONSUMERS ARE SPLITTING THEIR TICKET MORE THAN EVER Grocery is the leader in fresh, but greater availability and assortment of fresh across retail channels responds to consumer demand WALMART 7 ELEVEN WALGREENS MCDONALDS DOLLAR GENERAL 2016 Forecast: RETAIL FRESH DOLLAR MARKET SHARE 9% 12% 15% 64% Grocery Remaining Market Club Mass/SuperCenter POINT CHANGE FROM 2012 1 pt 2 pt 1 pt 2 pt Nielsen Homescan, 52 weeks ending Q3 2012; Fresh = Meat, Seafood, Bakery, Deli and Produce Dept. 4
FRESH AND ITS SHOPPERS ARE INCREASINGLY VALUABLE TO STORES 28% FRESH FOODS CONTRIBUTION TO TOTAL STORE SALES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES LARGER WITH FRESH 39% 32% 16% 8% 5% MEAT PRODUCE DELI BAKERY SEAFOOD Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts ; 2013; Homescan, TSV 52 weeks ending June 2013 5
PRICE INFLATION LEADING TO LESS EMPHASIS ON PROMOTIONS VOLUME % ON PROMO VS. YEAR AGO AVG. RETAIL PRICE VS. YEAR AGO MEAT -1.3% +1.9% -1.2% +2.0% PRODUCE -1.7% +3.9% SALE DELI -1.7% +1.0% +0.1% PRICE PROMOTION BAKERY +1.4% +0.2% SEAFOOD -1.1% Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts ; 52 weeks ending 7/27/2013 vs. Year Ago 6
PRICING NOT DETERRING FRESH PURCHASES 8% DOLLAR GROWTH VOLUME GROWTH 6% 6% 5% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 2% MEAT PRODUCE DELI BAKERY SEAFOOD Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Total U.S. 52 weeks ending 7/27/2013 vs. Year Ago 7
CONSUMERS DRAWN TO FOUR MAIN PRODUCT GROUPS
CONSUMER PRIORITIES DRIVING SUCCESSFUL PRODUCTS Across fresh, products that fit into four main consumer priority areas are proving successful HEALTHY CONVENIENCE PREMIUM/ INDULGENT MULTI-CULTURAL/ GLOBAL Source: Nielsen Perishables Group 9
FRESH CATEGORIES WITH PRIORITY ATTRIBUTES DRIVING GROWTH DOLLAR GROWTH 7% 8% 7% 8% VOLUME GROWTH 4% 5% 4% 5% HEALTHY CONVENIENCE PREMIUM/INDULGENCE MULTICULTURAL/GLOBAL 36% 18% 7% 2% CONTRIBUTION TO FRESH DOLLAR SALES Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Total U.S. 52 weeks ending 7/27/2013 vs. Year Ago; Products in each group are not mutually exclusive 10
SPOTLIGHT PRODUCTS: HEALTHY AVOCADOS BERRIES 28% 12% 16% 3% 11% 1% VOLUME $927 MILLION IMPRESSIONS PURCHASE FREQUENCY VOLUME IMPRESSIONS ANNUAL DOLLARS PER HOUSEHOLD $3.5 BILLION Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts 52 weeks ending 6/29/2013 (Impressions per store/week = Average number of unique items on shelves in a given week;) Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Shopper Insights powered by Spire, 52 weeks ending 7/13/2013 vs. Year Ago 11
SPOTLIGHT PRODUCTS: CONVENIENCE PACKAGED SALAD VALUE-ADDED VEGETABLES 7% 5% 1% 14% 12% 4% VOLUME IMPRESSIONS HOUSEHOLD PENETRATION VOLUME IMPRESSIONS PURCHASE FREQUENCY $3 BILLION $1.2 BILLION Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts 52 weeks ending 6/29/2013 (Impressions per store/week = Average number of unique items on shelves in a given week;) Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Shopper Insights powered by Spire, 52 weeks ending 7/13/2013 vs. Year Ago 12
SPOTLIGHT PRODUCTS: PREMIUM/INDULGENT CUPCAKES SEAFOOD SALADS 14% 9% 10% 4% 2% 1% VOLUME IMPRESSIONS PURCHASE FREQUENCY VOLUME IMPRESSIONS SPEND PER TRIP $506 MILLION $66 MILLION Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts 52 weeks ending 7/27/2013 (Impressions per store/week = Average number of unique items on shelves in a given week); Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Shopper Insights powered by Spire, 52 weeks ending 7/13/2013 vs. Year Ago 13
SPOTLIGHT PRODUCTS: MULTICULTURAL/GLOBAL FLAT BREADS HUMMUS 18% 6% 6% 4% 5% 5% VOLUME IMPRESSIONS PURCHASE FREQUENCY VOLUME IMPRESSIONS HOUSEHOLD PENETRATION $118 MILLION $453 MILLION Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts 52 weeks ending 7/27/2013 (Impressions per store/week = Average number of unique items on shelves in a given week); Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Shopper Insights powered by Spire, 52 weeks ending 7/13/2013 vs. Year Ago 14
INNOVATION AND CONSUMER SWITCHING DRIVING EVOLUTION OF DEVELOPED CATEGORIES
DEVELOPED CATEGORIES ARE INTEGRAL TO THE HEALTH OF FRESH Developed categories account for 69% of perishables sales Changes in consumer behaviors are ultimately leading to new and more complex developed categories 5% DOLLAR GROWTH VOLUME GROWTH 3% DEVELOPED CATEGORIES DEVELOPED 50% CATEGORY* Household Penetration Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts 52 weeks ending 6/29/2013 vs. Year Ago; *Not all staple categories are pictured 16
CONSUMERS SWITCHING ACROSS DEVELOPED CATEGORIES Record-high meat prices fueling switching more than ever before Ground beef is a substitute for multiple beef and chicken cuts Pork substitution within the protein Chicken cuts substitutes for all three proteins Also opting for value-added meats instead of traditional, despite higher price points Small household penetration, but sales growing consistently as people seek convenient options Source: Nielsen Perishables Group Meat Department Consumer Decision Tree Study 2011 17
INTERACTION OF SAME COMMODITY, DIFFERENT FORMS Percent of Fresh Produce Cooking Vegetable Buyers Who Also Buy FRESH VEGETABLES -1 91% -1 82% +2 57% $18 BILLION TOTAL STORE Canned Vegetables Frozen Vegetables Produce - Value-Added Vegetables BASKET INTERACTION All product groups have basket interaction indices below 100 with each other product group 10% of fresh produce cooking vegetable baskets also contain a fresh produce value-added vegetable item Note: Fresh Produce Cooking Vegetables includes types similar to those found in canned and frozen, including asparagus, broccoli, cauliflower, brussels sprouts, peas, etc. Source: Nielsen and Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts ; FreshFacts Shopper Insights powered by Spire, 52 weeks ending 7/13/2013 18
NEW ITEMS MEAN GROWING COMPLEXITY WITHIN STAPLES PACKAGED SALAD Innovation is exploding, making the packaged salad category more complex 41 new items introduced in 2012 Completes/kits represent 35% of new item $2.9 BILLION 7% Produce department contribution Despite higher price tags, competes/kits increasing prominence this year Volume velocity +19% Packaged salad category +3% Share of packaged salad category dollars and volume +2 points each Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts 52 weeks ending 7/27/2013 19
SHIFTING FOCUS WITHIN DEVELOPED CATEGORIES Deli Bulk Meat Growth of bulk meat products with unique flavor profiles indicates innovation is impacting the way consumers shop well-developed categories like deli bulk meat $3.7 BILLION 18% Deli department contribution Dollar Growth Volume Growth Total Deli Bulk Meat 0.8% -0.5% Oven Roasted Turkey 1.1% -0.4% Flavored Turkey 8.1% 6.4% Bold Turkey -3.3% -4.3% Oven Roasted Chicken 0.4% -0.8% Flavored Chicken 4.7% 4.5% Bold Chicken 15.7% 14.4% Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts 52 weeks ending 7/27/2013 20
SHIFTING SHARE WITHIN DEVELOPED CATEGORIES CAKES Cakes is the highest-selling category in the in-store bakery Decorated and dessert cakes traditionally the anchors of the cakes category Decorated cakes volume velocity -5.4% $3 BILLION 30% Bakery department contribution Cupcakes now account for the largest share of cake volume sales Highest household penetration of cake sub-categories Frequently purchased, making cakes into an everyday category Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts 52 weeks ending 7/27/2013 21
CORE SHOPPER GROUPS IMPACTING FRESH PERFORMANCE DIFFERENTLY
FRESH VS. TOTAL STORE SHARE OF SALES IN THREE CORE GROUPS CONTRIBUTION TO TOTAL STORE SALES: 22% 21% FRESH ENTHUSIASTS 23% of HHs FRESH ELUSIVE 20% of HHs FRESH MODERATE 56% of HHs 49% Spent the most per trip of any shopper group Made the most trips of any shopper group Experienced the largest decline in trips and spend of any shopper group Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Shopper Insights powered by Spire, 52 weeks ending 7/13/2013 *Remaining 7% of shoppers not coded for Spire Essence segments 23
CONSUMERS WITH KEY CHARACTERISTICS ARE DRIVING FRESH Fresh Enthusiast group members * tend to be affluent, health-minded, food-focused, and are more likely to be couples than families 26% FRESH ENTHUSIAST GROUP SPENDS MORE THAN ITS FAIR SHARE ON FRESH 22% DOLLAR SHARE OF TOTAL STORE SALES DOLLAR SHARE OF FRESH SALES Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Shopper Insights powered by Spire, 52 weeks ending 7/13/2013 *Top 5 indexing segments for fresh share of spend compared to total store among the 40 Spire Essence segments 24
ENTHUSIASTS FAVOR PREMIUM, HEALTHY CATEGORIES Index of Fresh Enthusiast s Share of Fresh Sales vs. Share of Total Store Sales Total Fresh HIGHEST INDEXING LOWEST INDEXING Specialty Cheese Berries Packaged Salad Apples Beef Processed Lunch Meat Pork Franks HEALTHY Tomatoes Cooking Vegtables Fin Fish Packaged Meals Fully Cooked Chicken Cakes Citrus Shrimp Breads Dried Fruits and Snack Mixes Breakfast Sausage Hams PREMIUM / INDULGENT Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Shopper Insights powered by Spire, 52 weeks ending 7/13/2013 Categories listed in order of their advantage/opportunity dollars 25
BUSY FAMILIES LACK A FOCUS ON FRESH Fresh Elusive group * tends to be on-the-go households with kids; they try to eat right and focus on value 21% FRESH ELUSIVE GROUP SPENDS LESS THAN ITS FAIR SHARE ON FRESH 19% DOLLAR SHARE OF TOTAL STORE SALES DOLLAR SHARE OF FRESH SALES Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Shopper Insights powered by Spire, 52 weeks ending 7/13/2013 *Top 5 indexing segments for fresh share of spend compared to total store among the 40 Spire Essence segments 26
FRESH ELUSIVE GROUP FAVORS CONVENIENCE Index of Fresh Elusive s Share of Fresh Sales vs. Share of Total Store Sales Total Fresh HIGHEST INDEXING LOWEST INDEXING Packaged Meals Fully Cooked Chicken Franks Processed Lunch Meat Cakes Deli pizza Breakfast Sausage Fully Cooked Beef Donuts Cookies Specialty Cheese Beef Berries Fin fish Packaged Salad Tomatoes Cooking Vegetables Shrimp Breads Citrus CONVENIENCE Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Shopper Insights powered by Spire, 52 weeks ending 7/13/2013 Categories listed in order of their advantage/opportunity dollars 27
REMAINING FRESH MODERATE GROUP CRITICAL TO STORE Remaining consumer groups (Fresh Moderate * ) includes wide range of characteristics and account for 49% of store sales HEALTHY CONVENIENCE PREMIUM/ INDULGENT MULTI-CULTURAL/ GLOBAL Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Shopper Insights powered by Spire, 52 weeks ending 7/13/2013 *Middle 30 indexing segments for fresh share of spend compared to total store among the 40 Spire Essence segments 28
GENERALLY FRESH MODERATE GROUP FOCUSED ON STAPLES ACROSS FRESH Index of Fresh Moderate s Share of Fresh Sales vs. Share of Total Store Sales Total Fresh HIGHEST INDEXING LOWEST INDEXING Beef Berries Dried Fruits and Snack Mixes Pork Deli Prepared Chicken Processed Lunch Meat Hams Deli Entrees Deli Salads Cakes Chicken Specialty Cheese Apples Packaged Salad Citrus Cooking Vegetables Grapes Tomatoes Value-Added Fruit Value-Added Vegtables HEALTHY PREMIUM / INDULGENT CONVENIENCE MULTI-CULTURAL/ GLOBAL Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Shopper Insights powered by Spire; 52 weeks ending 7/13/2013 Categories listed in order of their advantage/opportunity dollars 29
APPEAL TO THE RIGHT CONSUMERS IN THE RIGHT CATEGORIES HEALTHY CONVENIENCE PREMIUM/ INDULGENT MULTI-CULTURAL/ GLOBAL FRESH ENTHUSIASTS FRESH ELUSIVE FRESH ENTHUSIASTS FRESH MODERATES Source: Nielsen Perishables Group 30
RETAILERS WITH THE WINNING FORMULA
FRESH ACCOUNTS FOR 42% OF SALES AT TOP RETAILERS FRESH DOLLAR SHARE OF TOTAL STORE 42% of store sales 26% of store sales FRESH IS A DESTINATION FOR TOP RETAILERS Top 10 Fresh Retailers* 16 pt gap Remaining Retailers High Level Points of Difference Larger produce/deli assortment Effective meat promotions Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts ; 52 weeks ending 6/29/2013 FCA retailers ranked using weighted methodology 32
TOP RETAILERS GET CREDIT FOR FRESH Nationally, top retailers use fresh as a point of differentiation and get credit for it from consumers MARKET DIFFERENTIATION Quality Prepared Foods Selection of Meat & Fish Quality Fresh Food Customer Service Quality Fresh Food Pleasant Store Environment Long Opening Hours Selection of Fresh Fruit and Veg Pleasant Store Environment TOP 3 SHOPPER EQUITY RETAIL BRAND Source: Nielsen Shopper Trends 2010 Correspondence Analysis Results Among Dependable Shoppers in retailers primary census region 33
Beverage Center HBC Non food Frozen WINNING IN FRESH IS IMPORTANT BUT DOESN T GUARANTEE TOTAL STORE SUCCESS Meat Seafood Dairy Deli Cooking Center Produce Grocery Cafe Florist Rx Bakery Nielsen Homescan, TSV 52 weeks ending Q3 2011 34
LATEST INNOVATIONS IN TOTAL STORE CONNECTIONS Compiled by Nielsen Perishables Group Source: Innovation Center for US Dairy Market Track, Hannaford Bros. 35
KEY TAKEAWAYS
KEY TAKEAWAYS Evaluate if/how products fit into the equation HEALTHY - CONVENIENCE - PREMIUM - MULTICULTURAL Innovation in developed categories Develop an uncommon sense of the consumer Examine fresh as a vital part of the entire store Source: Nielsen Perishables Group 37
PUTTING IT IN ACTION What is the balance of fresh versus other departments in your store? What types of trips do your customers make? Do you connect fresh and non-fresh on all of those trips? What role does deli and bakery play in your store? How do you demonstrate this to your customers? Who are your target customers for your store? How do you meet their needs today? What could you change to meet their needs better? How could you meet them further in the future? Source: Nielsen Perishables Group 38
QUESTIONS? Sarah Schmansky 773.929.7013 sarah.schmansky@nielsen.com