CEYLON ELECTRICITY BOARD Sri Lanka s Power Generation Renewable Energy Prospective Eng. Noel Priyantha Chief Engineer (Renewable Energy) Transmission Division Ceylon Electricity Board Sri Lanka May 2016
UScts/kWh PRESENT CAPACITY MIX AS AT DECEMBER 2015 Energy Share in GWh- 2015 Capacity Share in MW - 2015 CEB Thermal- Oil 8% IPP Thermal 9% NCRE 11% CEB Thermal- Coal 34% CEB Hydro 38% Total RE 49% IPP Thermal 16% CEB Thermal - Oil 14% NCRE 11% CEB Thermal - Coal 23% CEB Hydro 36% Total RE 47% Average Cost per unit for Generation Technologies (For Year 2015) 25 19,21 22,05 20 15 11,73 10 5-1,03 4,63 CEB - Hydro CEB - Coal Renewable Energy CEB - Thermal IPP - Thermal Generation Technology 2
Energy Demand (GWh) Peak Demand (MW) ACTUAL AND FORECAST ENERGY/PEAK DEMAND 45000 40000 Actual Forecast 8000 7000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 Energy Peak 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year 0 Estimation of avg. growth rate approx. 5 %
Energy Share Base Case Plan 2017-2036: Base Case Plan 2035 0% 21% 45% 13% 21% Major Hydro NCRE Coal Oil LNG
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 Capacity (MW) FUTURE GENERATION OPTIONS - NON CONVENTIONAL 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 NCRE Additions Solar (MW) Biomass (MW) Wind (MW) Mini Hydro (MW) NCRE Energy Share (%) 20% by 2020 30,0% 25,0% 20,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% Year 5
PROJECTION ON COMPARSION OF CO 2 SAVINGS Projected CO 2 savings available for competitive markets 6
Unit generation cost (UScts/kWh) WHY CLIMATE FINANCE Sri Lanka seeks Climate Finance to reduce the present high cost of Renewable Energy CPF support in this regard is highly welcome. Possibility of reducing the present feed in tariff payable to NCRE in future, sharing the carbon credits among stake holders including CEB, as appropriate. Overall Sector Development through use of carbon credits Application submitted to obtain Green Climate Finance (GCF )assistance to develop 100MW wind park by CEB with the support from World Bank Unit Generation Costs for Different Power Plants at Typical Plant Factors 35 30 To reduce the Unit Generation Costs 29,52 33,08 25 23,37 20 16,61 17,88 18,9 15 12,97 13,73 10 5 7,02 7,95 9,63 0 Trinco Coal 250MW, 70% New Coal 300MW,70% Wind 25MW, 30% LNG 300MW, Dendro 5MW, Solar 10MW, 70% 70% 17% CCY 300MW, 70% Power plant and typical plant factor (%) CCY 150MW, 70% Solar with battery 10MW, 17% GT 105MW, 20% GT 35MW, 20% 7
CHALLENGES TO OVERCOME & SOME SUGGESTONS TO EXPLORE If carbon markets revive, opportunity to get competitive prices for carbon credits may be lost by entering into long term agreements only with the World Bank Group. Inclusion of some provisions in to ERPA to avoid such possibility Whether private sector will fully engage in to the CPF program and agree to sell credits to CEB as they may get better credits from competitive markets. Directive from the government, a long term proposition Waive off credit rights as part of the SPPA that offers feed-in-tariffs According to present practice, all carbon credit programs should be directed by the Climate Change Secretariat (CCS). Engaging CCS from the beginning and seeking their approvals as needed Understanding the impact on Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), submitted by the Ministry of Mahaweli Development and Environment, Once CEB signs the SPA and ERPA, relevant carbon reduction will be removed from the country and country cannot claim for any reduction of emissions. Inclusion of unconditional target in the baseline and credits from conditional target 8
THANK YOU www.ceb.lk 9
Additional slides 10
INTRODUCTION Total Area : 65,610 km2 SRI LANKA Land Area : 62,705 km2 Population : 20.97 million Urban : 18.3% Rural : 81.7% Population Density : 334 per/ sqkm Labour Force : 8.973 million Unemployment rate : 4.6% Literacy rate : 93.3% Life expectancy: 72 yrs (M), 78 yrs (F) Monetary Unit : Sri Lankan Rupee (1 USD = 146.19 LKR at 01.01.2016) Gross Domestic Product : 11,183 billion LKR (Market Prices) GDP per capita : 3,924 US$ (Market Prices) GDP structure 2015 Agriculture 7.85% Industry 26.20% Services 56.61% Taxes less subsidies on products 9.34%
kwh/person 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Inst. Capacity & Peak Demand (MW) GDP Growth Rate (%) Elec Demand Growth (%) SRI LANKAN STATISTICS POWER SECTOR 4400 4000 3600 3200 2800 2400 2000 1600 1200 800 400 0 600 575 550 525 500 475 450 425 400 375 350 325 300 275 250 Installed Capacity and Peak Demand Installed capacity Peak Demand Year Per Capita Electricity Consumption (2004-2015) The average per capita electricity consumption in 2015 was 562 kwh/person. 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year 10,0 GDP Growth % & Elec. Demand Growth % 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0-2,0 GDP Electricity Year Less significant relationship between GDP growth and Electricity demand growth in recent years Comparison with Regional Countries(kWh/person) Country 2009 2010 2011 2012 Bangladesh 221 247 259 278 India 605 641 684 753 Japan 7838 8378 7848 5190 Malaysia 3934 4136 4246 3405 Pakistan 450 458 449 649 Singapore 7896 8438 8404 8595 Vietnam 917 1035 1073 907 12 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0-5,0-10,0
Load (MW) TYPICAL LOAD CURVE OF SRI LANKA 2500 2000 NCRE CEB Hydro IPP Thermal 1500 CEB Thermal 1000 500 0 Time
Energy (GWh) Perecentage % RENEWABLE ENERGY- PRESENT STATUS Renewable Energy Contribution 8000 7000 NCRE Large Hydro Percentage of Renewable Energy from Total Energy 70% 60% 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 50% 40% 30% 20% 1000 10% 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year 14 0%
Historical NCRE Contribution Energy Generation (GWh) Capacity (MW) Year NCRE System Total NCRE Total System Installed Capacity 2003 120 7612 39 2483 2004 206 8043 73 2499 2005 280 8769 88 2411 2006 346 9389 112 2434 2007 344 9814 119 2444 2008 433 9901 161 2645 2009 546 9882 181 2684 2010 724 10714 212 2818 2011 722 11528 227 3141 2012 730 11801 320 3312 2013 1178 11962 367 3355 2014 1215 12418 442 3932 15
FUTURE GENERATION OPTIONS - NON CONVENTIONAL Projected NCRE capacity Year Mini Hydro (MW) Wind (MW) Biomass (MW) Solar (MW) Solar Net Metering (MW) Total NCRE Capacity (MW) Annual Total NCRE Generation (GWh) Share of NCRE from Total Generation % 2017 329 144 34 21 20 548 1782 12.1% 2018 344 244 39 121 26 774 2337 15.0% 2019 359 294 44 221 32 950 2720 16.4% 2020 374 464 49 371 39 1297 3530 20.3% 2021 384 539 54 371 44 1392 3840 21.1% 2022 394 609 59 471 50 1583 4277 22.4% 2023 404 669 64 571 55 1763 4663 23.2% 2024 414 714 69 571 60 1828 4875 23.1% 2025 424 799 74 671 64 2032 5339 24.1% 2026 434 799 79 771 69 2152 5553 23.9% 2027 444 824 84 771 74 2197 5702 23.4% 2028 454 869 89 871 79 2362 6051 23.6% 2029 464 894 94 871 83 2406 6200 23.1% 2030 474 964 99 971 88 2597 6619 23.5% 2031 484 999 104 971 93 2651 6785 23.0% 2032 494 1044 104 1071 98 2811 7099 23.0% 2033 504 1114 109 1071 102 2900 7378 22.9% 2034 514 1184 109 1171 107 3086 7763 23.0% 2035 524 1254 114 1271 112 3275 8186 23.2% 2036 534 1349 114 1271 117 3385 8506 23.1% Based on Draft LTGEP 2017-2036 16
Country ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS Comparison of CO 2 Emissions from fuel combustion kg CO 2 /2005 US$ of GDP kg CO 2 /2005 US$ of GDP Adjusted to PPP Tons of CO 2 per Capita GDP per capita (current US$) Sri Lanka 0.33 0.08 0.67 3,280 Pakistan 0.94 0.19 0.74 1,275 India 1.25 0.32 1.49 1,498 Indonesia 0.94 0.21 1.70 3,475 Thailand 1.07 0.30 3.69 5,779 China 1.85 0.64 6.60 6,807 France 0.13 0.15 4.79 42,560 Japan 0.26 0.30 9.70 38,634 Germany 0.24 0.26 9.25 46,251 USA 0.35 0.35 16.18 53,042 World 0.57 0.37 4.52 IEA CO 2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion (2014 Edition)- 2013 data, World Bank website 2013 data 17
Present NCRE Projects Approval Process 18
Main Parameters Debt equity ratio - 60:40 Loan repayment - 8 years Construction period - 2 years Return on equity (ROE) - 22 %
Plant factor and O & M percentages Technology Plant Factor O & M Percentage (Year 1-15) O & M Percentage Year (16-20) Mini Hydro 42 % 3 % 3 % Mini Hydro Local 42 % 3 % 3 % Wind 32 % 1.5 % 1.5 % Wind Local 32 % 1.5 % 1.5 % Biomass ( dendro) 80 % 4 % 5 % Biomass (agricultural & industrial waste) 80 % 4 % 5 % Waste Heat Recovery 67 % 1.33 % 1.33 %
Present Status : INDC TO ACHIVE EMISSION REDUCTION AT LEAST IDENTIFIED FROM INDCs 21
PRESENT STATUS OF NCRE TARIFF PRINCIPLES OF TARIFF FIXING Renewable energy, which is a natural resource, belongs to the State. Renewable energy should produce electricity in the long term at prices below the cost of thermal power plants, using oil or coal, or even gas. Developers are provided with a high tariff to cover their expenses and reasonable profits for an adequately long period (in this case fifteen years.) Cost based, technology specific and three tiered or flat tariff Tier 1: Years 1-8 ;Tier 2: Years 9 15; Tier 3: Years 16 20 (SPPA period 20 years) This tariff will be limited to small power producers ( Capacity up to 10 MW) This tariff has been designed to eliminate the problems of negative cash flows experienced by many small power producers during the period of loan repayment. 22
PROJECTS IN THE PIPELINE - NCRE SPPA Signed NCRE Projects Present Status NCRE Technology No of Projects Capacity (MW) 1 Mini Hydro Power 95 177 Biomass - Agricultural & Industrial 2 Waste 2 4.5 3 Biomass - Dendro Power 13 51 4 Biomass Municipal Waste 1 10 5 Solar Power 4 40 6 Solar Thermal 3 30 7 Wind Power 1 1 Total 119 314 23