PAK-SCMS BULLETIN MINISTRY of national food security and research PAKISTAN: SATELLITE BASED CROP MONITORING SYSTEM Volume IV, Issue 11, Serial No.47 1-November-2014 INSIDE THIS ISSUE Crop Situation: october 2014 (NDVI): Crop Growth Profiles at Divisional & Provincial Level Vegetation Difference 31th October 2014 Temporal Vegetation changes Nov 2012 Jan 2013 Disputed Territory Agro-met Conditions: October 2014 Daily Hydrological Status at Indus Basin: October 2014 Irrigation Water Supply Situation: October 2014 Fertilizer Situation: October 2014 Field View :October 2014 Agri. Recommendations Crops Statistics 01 07 10 11 13 19 20 21 22 24 26 SUPARCO, the National Space Agency of Pakistan, started the program on Monitoring of Crops through Satellite Technology during the year 2005.This is a perpetual study encompassing all growing seasons around the year. The purpose of this initiative is to reinforce support for policy makers, planners and private sector for food security, stocking, marketing, trade and industrial management. The final crop estimates are released by end of March for Rabi crops and mid of October for kharif crops. The Food and Agriculture organization of United Nations, (FAO-UN) provided technical backstopping for analytics and transfer of technology. The wheat, cotton, rice, sugarcane, maize and potato crops are being covered under this program. In addition, large scale geospatial applications of satellite remote sensing technology has been made for monitoring/mitigation of natural disasters (floods, flash floods, and drought) and providing reconnaissance detailed information ordained for the uplift of agriculture and allied pursuits. Crop Situation: October, 2014 T Summary he satellite vegetation images (NDVI) of various regions of Pakistan indicate that Kharif crops 2014-15 are at maturity stage. However some rainfed areas are showing slight increase in NDVI. This is an indicative of the emergence of Rabi crops. The month of October has received above normal monthly rainfall in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and main Basmati Rice SUPARCO has estimated rice crop 2014-15 area at 3285.3 thousand ha, yield 2568 kg per ha and production at 8.437 million tons. areas of Punjab. However, rest of the country especially Sindh and Balochistan received normal or below normal rains. The floods in September affected 200 thousand farmers in the flood affected areas of Punjab. The main crops damaged include rice, cotton, sugarcane, autumn maize and fodders. The Government of Punjab has announced Pak Rs. 16 billion as compensation to the flood affected community. The second installment in SUPARCO has estimated cotton crop 2014-15 area at 3262.9 thousand ha, yield 726 kg per ha and production at 13.928 million bales. this regard is being paid currently. The cotton arrival upto end of October was 8.382 million bales compared to 7.606 million bales last year; up by 10.2 percent. Sugarcane crop is at harvesting stage. Sugarcane area decreased in Punjab while increased in Sindh. Punjab government has increased support price of Sugarcane to Rs.180 per 40 kg, an increase of Rs.10 per 40 kg over last year. The sowing of Rabi crops 2014-15 as oil seeds, vegetables, fodders and wheat SUPARCO has estimated sugarcane crop 2014-15 area at 1348.3 thousand ha, yield 56.4 tons per ha and production at 76.083 million tons. started in October throughout the country. Pakistan Satellite based Crop Monitoring System Bulletin is a joint monthly publication of SUPARCO and FAO, UN.
CROPS SITUATION The Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA), an inter-provincial and inter-ministrial high powered body in the Ministry of National Food Security & Research (MNFS&R) has fixed the wheat crop 2014-15 production target at 26 million tons from an area of 8.91 million hectares. Hopefully this target would be achieved. Afghanistan pakistan india iran arabian sea Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) 31th October, 2014 2 PAK-SCMS Bulletin
Kharif Crops Situation 2014-15 Volume IV, Issue 11, Sr no. 47 Agro-meteorological Situation during October 2014 Rainfall and maximum temperature of main agriculture districts observed through meteorological stations for October, 2014 show that the cumulative monthly rainfall was above normal in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and main basmati growing areas/kallar tract of Punjab. However, rest of the country received normal or below normal rains especially in Sindh and Balochistan. Source: Pakistan Met Department Maximum temperature during October, 2014 in Faisalabad, Multan, Sargodha, Bannu, Peshawar and Chilas was observed to be lower by at least 1.5 0 C than normal. Source: Pakistan Met Department PAK-SCMS Bulletin 3
Crops Situation Kharif 2014-15 Kharif crops 2014-15 proved to be more promising for some crops like Rice and Cotton and least for Sugarcane due to economic shift to rice and maize crops. Some damages were caused to rice, cotton, sugarcane, autumn maize and fodders in Punjab due to floods 2014. Cotton The Cotton ginning statistics released by Pakistan Cotton Ginning Association is as follows: Province Arrival in "000" bales Oct-14 Oct-13 Change (%) Punjab 5236.6 4578.6 14.4 Sindh 3145.8 3027.6 3.9 Total 8382.4 7606.3 10.2 Source: Pakistan Cotton Gining Association Overall, the cotton production was higher by 10.2 percent than last year. This showed an asymmetric pattern viz an increase of 14.2 percent in Punjab and decrease of 3.9 percent in Sindh. The estimate of damage to cotton by floods is around 250 thousand bales. Main districts in term of damage to Cotton were Multan, Muzaffargarh, Khanewal and Jhang. Cotlook A index has shown lower market price throughout October, 2014. The domstic prices are around Rs. 2400 to Rs. 2650 per 40 kg and farmers are complainting about low commodity prices. 4 PAK-SCMS Bulletin
Volume IV, Issue 11, Sr no. 47 Sugarcane Sugarcane crop is at harvesting stage throughout Sindh, Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Significant reduction in sugarcane area has been observed in Punjab while area in Sindh has increase. Floods in Punjab have affected an area of 12.8 thousand ha and production loss has been estimated at around 725.8 thousand tons. Major districts in term of damage to Sugarcane were Jhang, Multan, Chiniot and Muzaffargarh. Harvest purchase price factor is one of important economic factor for annual crop and somewhat determines the future of sugarcane productivity in next season. SUPARCO estimated sugarcane crop 2014-15 with area at 1348.3 thousand ha, yield 56.4 tons per ha and production at 76.083 million tons. rice The harvesting of rice crop started in all parts of the country during end October. The Basmati growing tract including Sialkot, Narowal, Sheikhupura, Gujranwala and Chiniot districts were affected. The damage to rice crop is estimated at around 217 thousand tons of production. Major districts in term of damage to rice were Hafizabad, Jhang, Gujranwala and Chiniot. SUPARCO estimated rice crop 2014-15 with area at 3285.3 thousand ha, yield 2568 kg per ha and production at 8.437 million tons. flood damages The flood damages estimated by SUPARCO for Kharif crops 2014-15 were as follows: Crops Area Yield Production Rice 000 ha Kg/ha 000 tons 116.7 1857.0 216.8 Sugarcane 000 ha tons/ha 000 tons 12.8 56.5 725.8 Cotton 000 ha Kg/ha 000 bales 64.4 660 250 PAK-SCMS Bulletin 5
rabi crop situation 2014-15 rabi 2014-15 Rabi crops 2014-15 season has started by mid-october in rainfed areas of Punjab, Balochistan and lower Sindh. In Northern rainfed areas of Punjab season has started with a positive note. Wheat Wheat sowing started by mid-october in Rainfed areas of Punjab and KPK. The rainfall during October has benifitted the germination process. The sowing of wheat is continuing in the irrigated areas of Punjab, Sindh, KPK and Balochistan. The Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) has fixed the wheat crop 2014-15 production target at 26 million tons on an estimated area of 8.91 million hectares. The water level in the reservoirs is better as compared to last year. The success of crop will interalia, depend to a great extent on weather conditions. Top events of the Month: October, 2014 1. One Day Seminar on Pakistan Agriculture Information System SUPARCO in collaboration with FAO of the UN and USDA has also been implementing a program to upgrade the capability and capacity of the Provincial Crop Reporting Services (CRS), University of Agriculture Faisalabad and Sindh Agriculture University Tandojam. A one day workshop was held on 29 October, 2014 to highlight and share the progress made so far. Minister for National Food Security and Research was the Chief Guest. 2. pakistan Seed Bill 2014 The Seed Act 1976 was amended through Pakistan Seed Bill 2014 not fulfilling the requirements of modern seed industry. Thus there was a need to make some amendments to the law to make it suitable. The Bill clearly delineates the role of private sector (seed companies, dealers, processing units and fruit plant nurseries) and allows the private sector to produce basic seed for its multiplication and certification. Additionally, it allows the private sector to establish accredited seed testing laboratories. The bill authorizes the registration of Genetically Modified (GM) crop varieties subject to law. The new innovations in hybrid technology and Genetically Modified crops, have transformed the seed industry. The Seed Amendment Bill, 2014 has been drafted considering the emerging realities of the modern times and will provide level playing field to both, public as well as the private sector. 6 PAK-SCMS Bulletin
Volume IV, Issue 11, Sr no. 47 ` Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): Crop Growth Profile at Divisional Level SUPARCO is acquiring MODIS 250 m resolution data on daily basis and SPOT VGT 1000 m resolution data on 10 daily basis to assess crop growth. SPOT-5 high resolution data are being acquired during each cropping season to assess land surface changes through image classification. The SPOT VGT based graphs depicting temporal changes for various regions are as follows: Source: FAS-USDA100.6 KB PAK-SCMS Bulletin 7
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Volume IV, Issue 11, Sr no. 47 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): Crop Growth Profile at Provincial Level PAK-SCMS Bulletin 9
Temporal Vegetation Changes Vegetation Change: October 2014 vs. September 2014 Vegetation Change: October 2014 vs. October 2013 Satellite Imagery: SPOT VGT 1000m 10 PAK-SCMS Bulletin
Volume IV, Issue 11, Sr no. 47 Temporal Vegetation Changes Sowing/Land preparation Active Growth Maturity Harvesting Satellite Imagery: MODIS 250m Temporal Change: Kallar Tract, Punjab Temporal Change: Southern Punjab Temporal Change: Larkana Division, Sindh PAK-SCMS Bulletin 11
Temporal Vegetation Changes Sowing/Land preparation Active Growth Maturity Temporal Change: Sindh Temporal Change: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Temporal Change: Pat Feeder Area of Balochistan 12 PAK-SCMS Bulletin Harvesting Satellite Imagery: MODIS 250m
Agro-met Conditions Volume IV, Issue 11, Sr no. 47 Agro-Met Conditions: Kharif (2013 and 2014) The agro-met conditions during September and October were as follows: A wide spread weather system developed on 1st september and rains started in Azad Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, KPK and some parts of Sindh. These rains continuously burst from 2-6 September, 2014 without any break. These well above normal rains were recorded in the catchment areas of Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej rivers. Light rainfall showers were observed three times: 8-9, 14-16 and 18-29 during October. Potohar, KPK and GB recevied above normal rainfall while rest of the country received below normal rains. Maximum temperature was observed slightly higher than last year while minimum temperature remained slightly lower. Monthly Cumulative Precipitation (October 2013 and 2014): October 2014 October 2013 Disputed Territory Disputed Territory Legend: mm Legend: mm Monthly Mean (Max & Min) Temperatures October 2014 Mean Max Temperature Mean Min Temperature Disputed Territory Disputed Territory PAK-SCMS Bulletin 13
Cumulative Rainfall : October 2013 & 2014 350 300 KPK: Cumulative Rainfall (mm) of October 2013 & 2014 Rainfall (mm) 250 200 150 100 50 Oct 14 Oct 13 0 14 Balochistan: Cumulative Rainfall (mm) of October 2013 & 2014 70 GB/AJK: Cumulative Rainfall (mm) of October 2013 & 2014 12 60 Rainfall (mm) 10 8 6 4 Oct 14 Oct 13 Rainfall (mm) 50 40 30 20 10 Oct 14 Oct 13 2 0 0 14 PAK-SCMS Bulletin
agro-met conditions Volume IV, Issue 11, Sr no. 47 Maximum Temperature : October, 2014 The ranges of maximum temperature (0C ) during October, 2014 were as follows: PAK-SCMS Bulletin 15
Minimum Temperature : October 2014 The ranges of minimum temperature ( 0 C ) during October, 2014 were as follows: 16 PAK-SCMS Bulletin
agro-met conditions Volume IV, Issue 11, Sr no. 47 Relative Humidity In October, both morning and evening relative humidity remained higher than last year due to extreme rainfall during September 2014. Relative Humidity October 2013 & 2014 (Morning): October 2014 (Morning) October 2013 (Morning) Disputed Territory Disputed Territory Relative Humidity October 2013 & 2014 (Evening): Legend: % Legend: % October 2014 (Evening) October 2013 (Evening) Disputed Territory Disputed Territory Legend: % Legend: % PAK-SCMS Bulletin 17
Estimated Solar Radiation Estimated solar radiations have been derived from temperature regimes of different 37 Meteorological stations. During June to August, day temperature remained slightly higher than last year. The estimated solar radiation threfore remained higher. During October, day temperature remained higher and night temperature remained lower than last year especially in Sindh and Balochistan. Solar Radiation 2013 and 2014 October 2014 October 2013 Disputed Territory Disputed Territo- Legend: MJ m-2 day-1 Legend: MJ m-2 day-1 18 PAK-SCMS Bulletin
agro-met conditions Volume IV, Issue 11, Sr no. 47 Daily Hydrological Status at Indus Basin: October, 2014 During October, the water level at Tarbela and Mangla was above mean sea level (amsl) as given in the table below: The inflows at RIM stations at Indus and other rivers are as follows: 000 cusecs 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 Indus at Tarbela 2012 2013 2014 Source: Punjab Irrigation Department 0.0 1-Oct 6-Oct 11-Oct 16-Oct 21-Oct 26-Oct 31-Oct PAK-SCMS Bulletin 19
Irrigation Water Supply Situation: October, 2014 During Kharif (Apr-Oct) 2014-15, the irrigation water supply from canal head works was 78.580 MAF, which was up by 4.24 MAF compared to same period of last year. In Punjab the supply was 40.115 MAF, Sindh 35.258 MAF, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 1.07 MAF and Balochistan 2.137 MAF, up by 4.20 percent in Punjab, 7.05 percent in Sindh and 17.17 percent in Balochistan. It was however lower by 1.14 percent in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as compared to same period of last year. Source: Indus River System Authority (IRSA) 20 PAK-SCMS Bulletin
Fertilizer Situation Volume IV, Issue 11, Sr no. 47 Fertilizer Situation: October, 2014 During April-September, cumulative nutrient offtake was 1806.9 thousand tons, which showed a decrease of 4.1 percent over the same time frame of Kharif 2013. The nitrogen and phosphates were lower by 4.3% and 4.8% respectively. However postash offtake increased by 44.1 % as compared to same time frame of last year. During Kharif season, Urea offtake was 2716 thousand tons, while DAP offtake was 561 thousand tons, which decreased by 4.8 percent and 9.0 percent respectively over last year. Urea offtake during September 2014 was 420 thousand tons, which decreased by 16.7 percent over September 2013. DAP offtake was about 88 thousand tons, as compared to 169 thousand tons of September 2013; a decrease of 48.1 percent. Fertilizer Offtake Provisional values are averages from the previous years. Source: NFDC The fertilizer statistics and prices are depicted in the graphics below: PAK-SCMS Bulletin 21
Field view, 2014 Field View Punjab: October Harvested Rice Field, Gujranwala. Rice at Maturity, Gujranwala. Rice at Ripening stage, Gujranwala. Manually Harvested Rice, Sheikhupura. Rice Stubbles after Harvest, Sheikhupura. Land Prepared for Wheat, Sheikhupura. Germinated wheat, Gujranwala Rice Drying under Sun, Gujranwala Germinated Wheat, Hafizabad. Sugarcane Crop Condition, Nankana Sahib. Onion Crop, Narowal. Land Preparation for Wheat, Sialkot. 22 PAK-SCMS Bulletin
Volume IV, Issue 11, Sr no. 47 Field View Sindh:October Cotton Crop, Khairpur. Banana Orchard, Khairpur. Cotton at Maturity, Khairpur. Healthy Rice Crop, Khairpur. Sugarcane Crop Condition, Khairpur. Cotton sticks after picking, Matiari. Healthy Sugarcane Crop, Khairpur. Harvested Onion, Matiari. Land Preparation for Wheat, Matiari. Cotton Crop, Naushehro Feroze. Harvested Rice Fields, Naushehro Feroze. Onion Packing after Harvest, Matiari. PAK-SCMS Bulletin 23
Agricultural Recommendations 24 PAK-SCMS Bulletin
Agricultural Recommendations Volume IV, Issue 11, Sr no. 47 PAK-SCMS Bulletin 25
crops statistics Kharif Estimates Forecasts 2014-15 Cotton Crop Sugarcane Crop Rice Crop 26 PAK-SCMS Bulletin