Experience on District Level Agro Met Services LS Rathore
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1 Experience on District Level Agro Met Services LS Rathore Head Agro Met Services India Meteorological Department & Advisor, Ministry of Earth Sciences Government of India
2 Out Line of Presentation Conceptual Frame of AAS District Level Weather F/C System Advisory Preparation System Advisory Dissemination System
3 Conceptual Frame of AAS
4 Approach to Organize AAS Service Objectives Risk minimization Opportunity harnessing Zoning, mapping & Agro Met characterization Understand Farming systems with AgMet perspective Agromet Need Assessment of Farming Systems Identify Agro Met Risks How AAS make difference for small & marginal farmers? How can farmer be benefited? What if no service?
5 Service Capacitating Multi Institutional Consortium Linkage of Ag Research with AAS Develop & use Agro Met Product Incorporate traditional methods & indigenous technologies Training Intermediaries Farmers Assess effectiveness of AAS
6 Outreach Set up extension mechanism Prepare Farmers to Combat Climate Variability & Weather Extremes through use of Agromet Information Experience sharing on AAS with AMFUs as well as user communities. Involve extension stake holders
7 District Level Weather Forecast
8 Forecast Tool NWP Models-Multi-model Ensemble ECMWF JMA NCEP GFS NCMRWF T-254 UKMO
9 Multimodel Super Ensemble Technique Step-1 Generation of Multi-Analysis Weights NCEP JMA ECMWF Observed Gridded Field Weight for each grid of each Model (W)
10 Step-2 Generation of Multi-model Forecasts NCEP JMA ECMWF Forecast (F)= W i F i + D D= Value addition
11 Qualitative verification of Rainfall Forecast Graph showing sucess and failure of rainfall forecast Failure % Success % 20 0 Koria Surguja Jashpur Raigarh Korba Bilaspur Janjgir Kabirdham Rajnandgon Durg Raipur Mahasam und Dhamtari Kanker Jagdalpur Dantewada Narayanpur Bijapur Districts Percentage
12 Advisory Preparation System
13 Components of AAS Observation Weather forecast Diagnose weather related stresses Weather based farm management advisory Advisory bulletin dissemination Responding to specific queries Feed back
14 District Level Agro Met Advisory Service System Agro climate level agro met data IMD 130 AG.MET. FIELD UNITS PREPARATION OF DISTRICT WISE MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECAST BY STATE MET CENTRE PREPARATION OF DISTRICT SPECIFIC AGRO-ADVISORIES FOR CONCERNED AGRO-CLIMATIC Feedback analysis District wise Agro met data DISTRICT LEVEL AGENCIES (DAO/KVK/ATMA/NGOs) FARMERS (THROUGH MEDIA AGENCIES, IT SERVICE, PERSONAL CONTACT) DISSEMINATION OF DISTRICT LEVEL AGRO-ADVISORIES
15 District level Forecasts Parameters Rainfall Max Temperature Min Temperature Total cloud cover (day average) Surface Relative humidity (morning and evening) Surface Wind Speed (24 hrs average) Surface Wind Direction (Predominant) Temporal Range: 5 Days (R/F Outlook next 2 Days) Frequency: Twice a week
16 Three Tier Agro met Advisory System District Agro Met Advisories Bulletins: Issued by AMFUs & contains crop specific advisories for a given district State Level Composite AAS Bulletins: Issued by State Meteorological Centre & contains district wise advisories National Agro Met Advisory Bulletins: Issued by National Agro Met Advisory Service Centre, IMD, Pune & contains state wise advisories
17 Remote Sensing for AAS Make in season assessment of crop acreage, health and stresses Core Variables : NDVI, Albedo, LST Derived variables: PET, AET, Soil Moisture Crop Yield Forecast at District level using Crop Simulation Model Collaborative Efforts (with SAC, ICAR, & DoAC) to generate crop and soil information at smaller scales for use in AAS.
18 Crop Weather Models for AAS Calibrate & validate crop simulation models for major crop in different districts Use such models in weather based decision making Multi disciplinary task teams (25) are set up Final aim is to develop Expert Systems for farm level decision making
19 Advisory Dissemination System
20 1. Mass Mode of Dissemination - All India radio - Television - Print Media 2. Outreach at Village level - Ministry of IT Internet based Village Connectivity - Web Pages: IMD, SAUs, ICAR Web Pages 3. Human face for advisory dissemination - KVK (ICAR): Training + interaction -DAO(SDA): Coordinate Farm inputs with Line Function Dept. in rhythm of weather forecast - NGOs & other intermediary groups - Awareness Programme
21 Linkages at District Level 130 AMFU (one in ~ 5 Districts) 567 Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVKs) in 605 Districts Impart skill through oriented programs to rural masses Organize vocational trainings, demonstrate latest technologies and its refinement in farmers field conditions Organize demonstrations to generate awareness & feedback Agro Technology Management Agencies (ATMA) District Agriculture/Horticulture Offices Common Service Centres (Village Level) Local Media
22 Feed back Through Personal Contact Through Internet Through Media Agencies Prepare Questionnaire Surveys Farmers Meeting/Kisan Mela
23
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