Berlin Market Report OFFICE LEASING AND INVESTMENT Q1 2016 Record office take-up Investment market remains dynamic Margit Lippold Director Research Office leasing Office take-up (in 1,000 sqm) including owner-occupiers and forecast Take-up of around 179,300 sqm was recorded on the Berlin office leasing market in Q1, reflecting another yoy increase of 35%. In view of favorable employment figures and the growth trend being experienced by numerous businesses, development on the Berlin office market remained exceptionally dynamic in Q1 2016, sharing the top position among the Big 7 with Munich. Take-up Additional take-up in nearly all space segments is a solid indicator that the Berlin office leasing market continues to be attractive. Market activity in Q1 was dominated by public administration, associations and social institutions. They signed several large-scale leases but were also active in the smallest and medium-size space segments, accounting for 55,600 sqm, or more than a third of total take-up. Commercial transaction volume (in bn) and forecast The substantial increase in leasing performance in the city outskirts is particularly notable with results in peripheral locations almost doubling yoy to 35,700 sqm. In neighboring city locations leases were signed for 24,400 sqm, up almost 10% yoy.
More than 180 leases have been signed this year, an increase of around 20 leases yoy. Take-up was up considerably across all space segments with the exception of the space segment of between 1,000 sqm and 2,000 sqm. The largest increases were recorded in the space segment between 2,000 and 5,000 sqm and the segment of more than 5,000 sqm. 19 new leases were signed in these segments. Zalando snapped up more than 8,000 sqm at 3 Leipziger, the Jülich research project management business signed for roughly 4,700 sqm at Charlotten Carree and Deutsche Bahn took up more than 4,000 sqm on Rudower Chaussee. The smallest space segment of up to 500 sqm recorded take-up of 33,800 sqm, an impressive yoy increase of 16%, continuing to constitute the solid foundation of the Berlin office market. City East continues to be the most coveted office leasing submarket, accounting for take-up of around 68,300 sqm of office space with 50 leases signed. Due to limited supply in the very popular locations in City West, take-up decreased considerably there to around 13,000 sqm. Vacancy rate trend (in %) Average and prime rent trend (in /sqm) Further drop in vacancy Lively demand for space in connection with scarce supply of new-build space caused office vacancy to drop further. Roughly 610,000 sqm of office space was available for immediate tenancy in Berlin at the end of Q1 2016, reflecting a vacancy rate of 3.3%. This situation is making it increasingly hard to find suitable space even in the small space segment, particularly in downtown locations. The new-build completion volume for 2016 comes to around 195,000 sqm, 75% of which has already been preleased. Based on the latest estimates, a total of around 185,000 sqm of new office space will become available in 2017 with roughly 220,000 sqm expected in 2018. Market price share by Q1 2016 leasing performance The largest properties currently under construction with office space available include Upper West with around 30,700 sqm, Palais Holler in City West with roughly 5,500 sqm, Bertha Berlin with around 17,000 sqm and owneroccupier 50Hertz Transmission GmbH in Alt-Moabit at Tiergarten with around 15,000 sqm. 2 Market Report Q1 2016 Office Leasing and Investment Colliers International
Increase in prime and average rent Following a considerable increase in prime rent over the course of 2015, the high level achieved at the end of 2015 remains constant to date at 24.30 per sqm. Average rent increased in contrast by 11.3% yoy and is currently recorded at 15.30 per sqm. Favorable economic indicators will continue to accelerate demand for space. We expect office take-up to reach high levels similar to the previous year, exceeding 800,000 sqm. Office take-up in the smallest rent price segment of up to 10.00 per sqm was up 30% to 28,200 sqm. The higherprice segment of between 15.00 and 17.50 per sqm also recorded a considerable increase in take-up of around 40% at 23,500 sqm. Take-up in the rent price segment of over 20.00 per sqm more than doubled yoy to 25,900 sqm. Summary and outlook Due to this lively start to the year, we can expect strong results for 2016. Ongoing high take-up results are a further indication of the German capital's growing popularity as a hotspot among office tenants. Large-scale tenants in particular are increasingly focusing on outskirt locations when it comes to relocation options due to the growing lack of supply of high-end space. Berlin office leasing market Q1 2016 Market overview Location Take-up in sqm (incl. owneroccupiers) Take-up in sqm (excl. owneroccupiers) Rent obtained (1) in /sqm Average rent in /sqm Vacancy in sqm (1) City West 4,100 4,100 11.00-23.50 17.30 32,300 (2) City East 16,900 16,900 12.00-26.00 17.90 61.200 (3) Potsdamer Platz / Leipziger Platz 19,800 19,800 15.00-26.00 21.10 19,900 (4) Downtown East 68,300 34,700 5.00-24.00 15.80 101,400 (5) Downtown West 8,900 8,900 6.75-20.00 13.00 104,600 (6) City Periphery 25,600 24,400 5.00-19.00 12.90 191,900 (7) Outskirts 35,700 35,700 4.30-18.00 12.10 99,200 Total 179,300 144,500 4.30-26.00 15.30 610,500 (1) Rent obtained in the last 12 months 3 Market Report Q1 2016 Office Leasing and Investment Colliers International
Investment A transaction volume of around 710 m was recorded in the Berlin real estate investment market in Q1. Following impressive results in 2015, transaction volume this year to date has decreased yoy by roughly 35%. Nevertheless, the Berlin commercial investment market continues to experience lively market activity. Share by asset class Q1 2016 (in %) Demand Due to the favorable economic situation in Berlin in connection with ongoing low interest rates, the run for Berlin assets will continue unabated. 27 commercial properties and sites changed hands in Q1 2016. This short breather on the Berlin market was caused by the lack of large-volume and portfolio deals to date. The number of investors choosing to sell their properties in Berlin is decreasing as Berlin is strongly undervalued in most portfolios. The relatively low transaction volume can primarily be attributed to a lack of available investment opportunities. National and foreign investors continue to focus on the German capital with demand considerably exceeding supply. Transaction volume by buyer group (in m) As in previous years, Q1 in Berlin was once again dominated by the office asset class. Office properties generated around 570 m, reflecting an 80% share in total transaction volume. We expect this share to somewhat decrease over the course of the year in favor of other asset classes. Several small-volume commercial sites were sold for around 50 m. Prime yield trend (in %) 4 Market Report Q1 2016 Office Leasing and Investment Colliers International
Buyer and seller groups Asset and fund managers were the strongest investor group buy-side, generating a volume of more than 120 m (roughly 17%) in 5 transactions. In addition, openended real estate funds and special funds accounted for around 107 m, closing 4 deals (roughly 15%). We expect industry make-up to further diversify over the next few months. Asset and fund managers were the most active sell-side, accounting for around 30% of transaction volume at more than 210 m. Project developers and development companies followed with a transaction volume of 150 m and a market share of 22%. Industry make-up sell-side will become clearer over the course of the year. More and more investors are snapping up new-build projects in the early construction phase. International investors and portfolio deals Robust yield structures Yield compression continues due to high demand for core properties and scarce supply. Gross initial yields for office and logistics space were down yoy 75 basis points and 55 basis points, respectively. We expect this slight decrease to continue. Summary and outlook The Berlin real estate investment market experienced ongoing lively market activity and good results in Q1. Unlike Q1 2015, no large-volume or portfolio deals were signed in Q1 2016. Colliers International expects commercial transaction volume in Berlin to remain high in 2016. The pipeline is well-stocked with potential deals and a number of large-volume deals will likely be finalized. We expect transaction volume in 2016 to reach 6 bn, significantly surpassing the 5-year average. The Berlin commercial real estate market is proving more popular among foreign investors than ever in 2016. The growth in activity by international market participants already experienced the previous year continues. No portfolio transactions were recorded in the Berlin municipal area in Q1 2016. We expect 2016 market activity to be similar to previous years. 5 Market Report Q1 2016 Office Leasing and Investment Colliers International
554 offices in 66 countries on 6 continents USA: 153 Canada: 34 Latin America: 25 Asia Pacific: 231 EMEA: 112 Author: Margit Lippold Director Research 2,3 billion in sales 186 million square meters under management Colliers International Berlin GmbH Budapester Str. 50 10787 Berlin, Germany +49 30 202993-43 16,000 employees About Colliers International Colliers International Germany has real estate consultants at our offices in Berlin, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Munich, Stuttgart and Wiesbaden. Our services include leasing and selling office, commercial hotel, industrial, logistics and real estate propereties, retail parks, apartment buildings and lots, asset valuation, Consulting, consulting, real estate management services and assisting companies in their property management (corporate solutions). Colliers International Group Inc. (Nasdaq: CIGI) (TSX: CIG) is active in 66 countries with more than 16,000 employees at 554 offices worldwide. colliers.com Image: Marcus Lehmann PwC headquarters Copyright 2016 Colliers International. This brochure/document has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising and general information only. This brochure/document has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising and general information only. Any interested party should undertake their own inquires as to the accuracy of the information. This publication is the copyrighted property of Colliers International and/or its licensor(s) 2016. All rights reserved.