Lecture to IRENA scholars at the Masdar Institute for Science and Technologiy 4 October, 2011 Socio-Economic Impacts of Renewable Energy Thomas B Johansson Professor em, International Insitute for Industrial Environmental Economics; Lund University; Lund, Sweden, (former) Co-Chair, Global Energy Assessement, IIASA, Austria
Early IRENA history: In prepartion for Rio Conference in 1992 the UN Secretary-General convened the United Nations Solar Energy Group for Environment and Development (UNSEGED), Solar Energy: A Strategy in Support of Environment and Development a comprehensive analytical study on renewable sources of energy. One of the proposels was that an International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) be established to promote renewables in the context of sustainable devlopment Hermann Scheer, member of the UNSEGED team, was very effective in moving this propsal forward. UNSEGED was chaired by professor Thomas B Johansson
From: Steffen et al. 2004 Source: IGBP
Planetary boundaries Source: J. Rockström et al., Nature 461, pp 472-475, 2009
Challenges requiring actions on Energy a. Energy services for growing populations and economies, 7 to 9 billion by 2050; 2%/a p.c. b. Universal access to modern forms of energy (the ~3 billion w/o access) c. affordable energy services (@$100/bbl??) d. secure supplies, from households to nations, peak e. local and regional health and environment challenges (WHO guidelines) f. climate change mitigation (<+2 deg pre.ind.) g. ancillary risks => Major Energy System Changes Needed!
These challenges must be addressed adequately timely simultaneously
EJ Global Primary Energy 1200 1000 800 600 Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Commercial aviation Nuclear energy Microchip 400 200 Steam engine Electric motor Gasoline engine Vacuum tube Television Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Source: Nakicenovic et a., 2009
Reasons for Concern The Red Embers 3.2 o C 2 o C 1.5 o C Source: Smith et al. PNAS, 2009
Global emission pathways in compliance with a 2 ºC guardrail, with 67% probability
Peak Oil
this translates into a need for a major energy systems transformation Main elements: Energy end-use efficiency Renewable energies Carbon Capture and Storage (for CC only) Efficiency and Renewables are INSTRUMENTS for addressing all the sustainability challenges at the same time!
celková energie [kwh/m 2 a] 250 200-90% Domácí spotřebiče Vzduchotechnika PassivHaus 150 Ohřev TUV Vytápění 100 50-75% 0 Stávající zástavba Pasivní dům Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings, www.pasivnidomy.cz
Example of savings by reconstruction Before reconstruction Reconstruction according to the passive house principle over 150 kwh/(m²a) -90% 15 kwh/(m²a) Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings, www.pasivnidomy.cz, EEBW2006
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 final energy use: global heating and cooling Floor Area Thermal Comfort Final Energy Floor Area, 400 1E9 m^2 Energy, PWh/year 18,0 350 16,0 300 250 200 150 +126 % Adv New New Adv Ret Retrofit Standard 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0-43 % 100 50 0 6,0 4,0 2,0 Adv New New Adv Ret Retrofit Standard 0,0 WORK IN PROGRESS DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE Source: D. Urge- Vorsatz, CEU and GEA
Source:REN21 GSR, 2011
Source:REN21 GSR, 2011
Source: IPCC- SRREN, 2011
Source:REN21 GSR, 2011
Source:REN21 GSR, 2011
Ranges of Global Technical Potential of Renewable Energy Source: IPCC- SRREN, 2011
Source:REN21 GSR, 2011
Source:REN21 GSR, 2011
Source:REN21 GSR, 2011
Examples of learning curves Source: IPCC- SRREN, 2011
Schematic representation of grid parity for solar PV Source: EPIA, 2008
PS10 and PS20 power towers in Spain (left) and a power tower solar thermal power plant in the California desert (right). Source: Left photo courtesy of Abengoa Solar
Range in recent levelized cost of energy for selected commercially available RE technologies Source: IPCC- SRREN, 2011
Renewable Combi-Plant. Source: Mackensen et al., 2008
Renewable energy mix of the Combi-Plant: simulation for 2006 4.000 3.500 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 0 Import hydro biogas PV wind Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Mackense et al, 2008
Integration of renewables and electric vehicles into a supply system Source: W. Krewitt ( ) and W. van Sark, 2011
Concept of a HVDC-based transcontinental super grid Source: Trieb and Müller-Steinhagen, 2007.
Production paths to liquid fuels from biomass and, for comparison, from fossil fuels Source: E. Larson and A Faaij, GEA
Projected production costs for biomass to power and to CHP Source: IEA Bioenergy, 2009.
Ethanol (producer, Brazil, green) and Gasoline (spot, CIF Rotterdam, red) Prices (2005US$/GJ) Selling price for ethanol in Brazil vs. cumulative production, Brazil - Ethanol comp. and Gasoline with Import Prices Rotterdam vs. Cumulative Ethanol Production price (1975-2009) for gasoline 40 30 20 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Cumulative Ethanol Production (EJ) learning rate: ~10% reduction per doubling of cumulative production Source: Mytelka and de Sousa Jr., 2011
Range of production cost estimates for second-generation biofuels (in 2006 U.S. dollars per liter of gasoline equivalent). The 2030 estimates assume significant investment in RD&D. Source: Sims et al., 2010.
Lifecycle fossil energy use estimates in production of several biofuels Source: CONCAWE et al., 2008; Pradhan et al., 2009; Sheehan et al., 1998a; Farrell et al., 2006.
Life-cycle GHG emissions (CO 2 -eq/kwh), excl. land use changes Source: IPCC- SRREN, 2011
Mapping of the 10.7 GW installed geothermal electric capacity in 2009 Source: Bertani, 2010
Renewable power additions as % of global power capacity addition is more than one third! 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment 2010 10% 16% 10% 21% 15% 12% 14% 31% 28% 36% 32% 6% 4.0% 4.5% 4.9% 5.5% 6.2% 7.0% 5.5% 3.1% 3.4% 3.7% 4.2% 4.8% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Renewable power capacity addition as a % of global power capacity addition Renewable power generation increase as a % of global power generation increase Renewable power as a % of global power capacity Renewable power as a % of global power generation
Some overall observations Decentralized and centralized Small scale and modular Local conditions determine best options Integrate with energy demand Build systems to handle intermittecy (the baseload concept to be retired)
Renewable energy and sustainable development 1. Contribute to social and economic development 1. Cost savings in remote areas 2. Reduced energy imports 3. Domestic job creation 2. Help accelerate access to modern forms of energy, both for electricty and cooking, a total of 2.7 billion people 3. Contribute to more secure supplies of energy 4. Reduced GHG emissions 5. Improved health due to less pollution
Annual global new grid connections, 1995-2010 45 40 35 wind 30 GW 25 20 15 PV 10 5 Nuclear 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year
2008$/kW Nuclear PWR Investment Costs (US overnight excl. interest, France partly incl. interests) 10000 Nuclear PWR Investment Costs US overnight excl. interest, France partly incl. interests mean/best guess and min/max of costs US average France best guess 5000 4000 3000 1983 1996 2000 1980 1995 1000 1 10 100 1971 1977 cum GW installed 1980 1985 1975 Source: US: Koomey&Hultman, 2007, France: Grubler, 2009
Objectives and goals for the GEA energy back-casting secenario for 2050 Support economic growth at recent historic rates Almost universal access to electricity and cleaner cooking, by 2030 Reduce air pollution impacts on health, adhering to WHO guidelines Avoid dangerous climate change, stay below + 2 o C above preindustrial global mean temperature Improve energy security through enhanced diversity and resilience of energy supply And in the process, address peak oil and nuclear proliferation challenges
EJ EJ Supply-side Flexibility Demand-side Flexibility EJ Global Energy Assessment (GEA) Pathway Taxonomy Feasible supply-side transitions (primary energy by 2050) High demand Branching point: Supply 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Savings Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 ST NN NC NB N2 LB LR AT Branching point: Efficiency GEA-Mix Intermediate demand Branching point: Supply 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Savings Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 ST NN NC NB N2 LB LR AT Low demand Branching point: Supply 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Savings Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 ST NN NC NB N2 LB LR AT
EJ Global Primary Energy -- Efficiency 1200 1000 800 600 Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Commercial aviation Nuclear energy Microchip 400 200 Steam engine Electric motor Gasoline engine Vacuum tube Television Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Source: GEA Chapter (in preparation)
Unrestricted Portfolio No Nuclear No BioCCS No Sinks Limited Bio-energy Limited Renewables No CCS No Nuclear & CCS Lim. Bio-energy & Renewables No BioCCS, Sink & lim Bio-energy Unrestricted Portfolio No Nuclear No BioCCS No Sinks Limited Bio-energy Limited Renewables No CCS No Nuclear & CCS Lim. Bio-energy & Renewables No BioCCS, Sink & lim Bio-energy X X X X X X X X X X X X EJ X X X X X X X EJ EJ 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Steam engine Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs Electric motor Vacuum Gasoline tube engine Commercial aviation Television Nuclear energy GEA Efficiency Microchip Advanced transportation Conventional transportation 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Steam engine Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs Electric motor Vacuum Gasoline tube engine Commercial aviation Television Nuclear energy Microchip GEA Mix 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Steam engine Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs Electric motor Vacuum Gasoline tube engine Commercial aviation Television Nuclear energy Microchip GEA Supply 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
GEA-Supply
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Early action to avoid lock-in: The lock-in risk for Western Europe Thermal Comfort Final Energy, state-of-the-art scenario Thermal Comfort Final Energy, suboptimal scenario Energy, PWh/year Energy, PWh/year 3,5 3 2,5 68.7% 3,5 3 2,5 26.1% 2 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 Adv New New Adv Ret Retrofit Standard 1,5 1 0,5 0 Adv New New Adv Ret Retrofit Standard Source: D. Urge-Vorsatz, CEU and GEA
Why RE policies and programmes? Existing set of general policies and institutions favor incumbent industry Market failures, incl. social and environmental issues Lack of edcation and access to data, technical capacity and know-how
Million US$2008 PPP Public Sector Energy RD&D in IEA Member countries by major technology group 20000 15000 10000 5000 Other Efficiency Renewables Fossil Fuels Fusion Nuclear w/o fusion 0 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 100% future technology needs share in 2000-2100 cum. emission reduction past and current R&D into developing improved technologies, shares by technology Distribution of past and current energy R&D as compared to future technology needs from the pathways analysis 80% 60% 40% 20% Nuclear Renewables Fossil Fuels Other Energy Efficiency Source: GEA Chapter 24 0% Min Mean Max In future mitigation scenarios (technology needs portfolio) 1974-2008 2008 public energy R&D (past, current R&D portfolio) MIN Mean Max 1974-2008 2008
Some policy examples feed-in-tariffs quotas priority grid access building mandates biofuel blending requirements bioenergy sustainability criteria loans, guarantees, and grant programmes land use planning fiscal policies, taxes carbon pricing
Electricity Generation (TWh) Wind Power in EU-27 and FITs 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Countries with wind FIT Countries with alternative support Source: European Commission
EU Renewable Shares of Final Energy, 2005 and 2009, with Targets for 2020 Source: GSR, REN21, 2011
not just energy technology Urban planning Transportation systems Material use Land use Consumption patterns..
Economic development and poverty alleviation while mitigating climate change Multiple benefits concept Value all benefits (jobs, growth, security, health, local environment,...) Costs in terms of per tc misleading Energy efficiency Renewable energies Measures can be justified on local and immediate grounds rather than grounds that are global and in the future
Conclusions Rapidly changing world Transformative changes needed on energy Window of opportunity exists Resources and technologies exist Energy efficiency improvements priority #1 Rapidly growing role for renewable energies Electricity growing importance Policies and institutions critical Energy subsidies and R&D misallocated Capacity development worldwide
Thank you!
WORLD ENERGY ASSESSENT MAIN FINDINGS