Wind Energy- The European Experience Future Prospects Stefan Hantsch
IG Windkraft Austrian Wind Energy Association founded in 1993 2.000 members board member of European umbrellaorganisations EWEA and EREF
Austria small landlocked country 8 Mio. Inhabitants 84.000 km² (1% of Brazil) 982 MW wind power
What was important for the development in Austria? Do-it-yourself initiatives constructed their own wind measurement equipment and found very good sites Promoted the idea of searching windy sites with simple wind measuring systems Local population became coowner of wind power plants 40% of all MW are owned by them
Wind Power in Austria Control units Generators Prepreg electronic units -Blade materials windturbine-concepts Leading suppliers for all important wind turbine components.
Windpower worldwide Source: GWEC
Europe the leading wind power continent End of 2007 56,000 MW installed 110 billion kwh- 3.5% of consumption Installed 2007:8,500MW 2007: 18 billion US $ investment annual rate of growth since 1995: 30% Source: EWEA
The European Experience - Why does the EU support Renewable Energy Sources (RES)? dependency - price risk costs - CO2 ->Clear political decisions to foster energy production by Renewable Energy Sources
The European Experience - Why does the EU support RES? 2002: EU Directive to get 21% of the electricity consumption by Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in 2010 2007: EU- Head of states 2007 agreed on new binding targets: ->20% (today 8%) of the whole energy consumption has to be be covered by Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in 2020 ->To get 20% of the whole energy-consumption you need 34% RES electricity (today 17%). ->20% CO2 reduction
Most common support mechanism in Europe Feed in Tariffs (REFIT) The producer of green electricity gets a fixed price for the produced electricity for a period of several years typical:(10-20 years) (7-10 ct/kwh) Purchase obligation: the power is purchased by grid operators and then proportionately distributed to consumers Guaranteed and regulated grid-access
Wind energy in Europe end 2007 Source: EWEA
What is the result of these clear decissions?
Strong technology development: increasing turbine size Source: DEWI
Wind-power: High tech technology
Wind-power: High tech technology
New power plants in Europe Source: EWEA and Platts Power Vision
New power plants in Europe: Wind is N 1 Source: EWEA and Platts Power Vision
Wind power becomes competitive
Wind, water and sun provide stable electricity prices
What brings the future? Will prices continue to rise? Electricity prices depend very strong on commodity prices.
For instance: The future gas supply in Europe? Development 2005-2020: The european gas production decreases by 40-50% Demand rises by 15-26% Imports have to double Additional demand of Imports: 220-250 bill.m³ Source: Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik 2007; Dr. Werner Zittel / AT Kearney 2007
Future gas supply? There are new pipelines planned, but they could only supply about 100 bill. m³ Not even the half of the demand Source: Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik; Dr. Werner Zittel
Can LNG (liquified natural gas) close the gap? Development of new LNG- Terminales postponed (Qatar) Priority for the gas supply of the own economy Nigeria und Egypt rethink LNG-projects in the volume of 33% of today s global market Indonesia will reduce LNG-Exports by 75% in 2010 Not only Europe needs more gas-> global competition China, India, North America
No Gas More Coal? Huge problems in Australia and South Africa China and Vietnam became coal net importers in 2007 The official coal reserves are very often unrealistic In the last 20 years the global reserves have been reduced by 25% India reduced its reserves by 40% in 2007 Since 1992 the reported reserves of China have been unchanged
More coal? prices are exploding Grafik Kohlepreis newc
Why should even oil-countries use wind power? Wind is cheap Oil is too valuable to burn it for electricity production It s cheaper to produce electricity with wind than with oil ->Oil - countries get more money if they export the oil and make the domestic electricity with wind power
Therefore: bright prospects for wind energy EWEA-Study 2005 12% Windpower in 2020 World 12% electricity production (billion kwh) 3,054 Installed wind power capacity (MW) 1.254,000 Annual installed capacity (MW) 159,000 Employment (million job-years) 2.3
Therefore: bright prospects for wind energy Source: EWEA
Therefore: bright prospects for wind energy Source: EWEA
Conclusions Wind power is already number one in Europe and will play a major role in the future. A stable support system (as feed in tariff) made it possible to develop the industry. Wind is already cheaper than the electricity production with oil. Costs of fossil fuels will rise rapidly Wind is going to be cheaper than electricity produced with gas or coal right now. Therefore: Bright prospects for wind energy
Thank you for the possibility to come to your wonderful country! More information: s.hantsch@igwindkraft.at