EIENDOMSVERDI. The housing market update July. Copyright Eiendomsverdi

EIENDOMSVERDI The housing market update July

Executive summary The market cooled off further and fell by 1.1 percent. Seasonally adjusted this was a fall of 0.3 percent Volumes were low, in fact the lowest since the financial crisis. Probably due to very low unsold stock in June and the fact that very little new is put on the market in July Year to date volumes remain on an All-Time high The dichotomy between Oslo and the rest of the country is getting bigger and bigger with the market in Oslo outperforming on almost every parameter. Stavanger and Rogaland is now falling Year/Year The sell/ask spread narrowed For yet another months unsold stock remains close to All Time low levels everywhere except in Rogaland - where it is on an All-Time high! 11.08.2015 2

The market fell in July the HPI down 1.1 percent

Year/Year growth rate falls to 6,8%

Eiendom Norge House Price Index summary: The market cools off for another month falling by 1.1 percent Seasonally adjusted prices were also down, marking a fall of 0.3 percent. This is the fist time in 17 months that prices have fallen seasonally adjusted Year/Year growth rate also falls reaching 6.8 percent Table 1. Summary Eiendom Norge House Index Eiendom Norge Index Index (Jan 03 = 100) 223,4 Change juli 2015-1,1 % Change juli 2014 0,1 % Change juli 2013-1,3 % Change juni 2015 0,1 % Change mai 2015-0,3 % Year over Year 6,8 % 5 Years 33,9 % Price Change since previous all time high -1,3 % Price Change since previous trough 13,2 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

The house price index, segmented by housing types

House prices by housing types Strongest segment in July was apartments Apartments are growing at more than double speed of the other segments. This is probably due to the fact that most apartments are located in strongly performing areas Both detached and terraced saw significant falls. Some of it probably due to seasonal factors, but this was one of the weakest Julys in a long time Table 2. Summary by property type Detached Terraced Apartments Index (Jan 03 = 100) 214,1 220,9 228,1 Change juli 2015-3,4 % -3,1 % 0,4 % Change juli 2014-0,6 % -0,1 % 0,6 % Change juli 2013-2,2 % -3,8 % -0,3 % Change juni 2015-0,3 % 0,1 % 0,4 % Change mai 2015-0,6 % -0,4 % -0,1 % Year over Year 4,1 % 3,7 % 8,7 % 5 Years 25,6 % 27,1 % 39,9 % Price Change since previous all time high -4,2 % -3,4 % 0,0 % Price Change since previous Trough 10,4 % 8,2 % 15,8 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

House prices by selected counties falling everywhere except in Oslo

House prices by selected counties Oslo was yet again the strongest region and the only region with an increase in prices And for yet another month Rogaland is the weakest market Year over year Rogaland is now experiencing falling prices while Oslo is growing at over 10 percent Table 3. Summary by selected counties Oslo Hordaland Sør-Trøndelag Rogaland Nordland Vest-Agder Hedmark Index (Jan 03 = 100) 229,2 256,4 242,4 266,7 240,3 216,6 210,0 Change juli 2015 0,2 % -0,8 % -0,9 % -2,0 % -1,7 % -1,7 % -1,7 % Change juli 2014 0,5 % 0,2 % 0,2 % -0,2 % -0,2 % 0,1 % -0,3 % Change juli 2013-0,7 % -1,2 % -1,0 % -1,8 % -1,2 % -1,9 % -1,5 % Change juni 2015 0,7 % 0,2 % 0,0 % -0,9 % 0,2 % -0,4 % 0,3 % Change mai 2015 0,2 % -0,2 % -0,4 % -1,1 % -0,4 % -0,3 % -0,4 % Year over Year 11,7 % 8,0 % 6,2 % -0,9 % 4,7 % 4,2 % 6,5 % 5 Years 44,7 % 37,8 % 42,4 % 23,8 % 35,0 % 12,1 % 26,7 % Price Change since previous all time high 0,0 % -0,9 % -1,3 % -4,0 % -1,9 % -2,4 % -1,8 % Price Change since previous Trough 17,8 % 15,6 % 12,6 % 2,9 % 12,6 % 9,4 % 14,1 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

Apartments in selected cities

Summary apartments in the big cities: Oslo was yet again the strongest performing big city but this time the top spot was shared with Bergen Stavanger continues to be significantly weaker than the other big cities Year/Year basis the growth in Oslo is catching up to the top performer Tromsø however Year/Year growth in Tromsø remains strong. Bergen is the third strongest Year/Year Stavanger is now in negative territory on a Year/Year basis Table 4. Summary apartments big cities Oslo Bergen Trondheim Stavanger Kristiansand Tromsø Drammen Bodø Index (Jan 03 = 100) 230,0 265,5 242,3 282,0 217,7 251,1 245,7 233,3 Change juli 2015 0,5 % 0,5 % 0,4 % -0,3 % 0,0 % 0,7 % 0,2 % 0,3 % Change juli 2014 0,6 % 0,7 % 0,5 % 0,3 % 0,8 % 1,4 % 0,6 % 0,8 % Change juli 2013-0,4 % -0,2 % -0,1 % -0,5 % -0,6 % 0,2 % -0,1 % -0,1 % Change juni 2015 0,8 % 0,4 % 0,1 % -0,9 % 0,1 % 0,0 % 0,6 % 0,1 % Change mai 2015 0,2 % 0,0 % -0,3 % -1,0 % -0,2 % -0,1 % 0,2 % -0,1 % Year over Year 12,2 % 10,2 % 6,9 % -0,9 % 5,9 % 12,4 % 10,0 % 7,3 % 5 Years 46,1 % 44,2 % 45,7 % 26,5 % 12,2 % 54,2 % 54,0 % 42,2 % Price Change since previous all time high 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % -4,5 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % Price Change since previous Trough 73,2 % 75,1 % 78,8 % 54,9 % 30,0 % 74,3 % 82,1 % 61,1 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

Unsold stock

Unsold stock in Oslo and Bergen

Unsold stock in Trondheim and Stavanger

Age of inventory (unsold stock)

Volumes in July falling from last year

But year to date volumes remain on an All Time high

Time on the market

Prices in Norway, UK, Sweden, Denmark and the USA Source: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Composite 20, Realkredittrådet, Hometrack, Statistics Sweden, Eiendomsverdi

Sell/ask spread: 1.7 percent Narrowing as is usual in July

The sell-ask spread in Oslo, Trondheim, Bergen and Stavanger

Sell-ask spread in Tromsø, Drammen, Kristiansand and Bodø

Summary the sell-ask spread The sell/ask spread narrowed considerably but probably mostly due to seasonal factors The spread in Oslo set a new All-Time high Oslo now has more than twice as wide spread as any of the other cities For yet another month sellers in Stavanger had to accept prices below their asking prices and the negative spread widened significantly For the first time in 2015 sellers also in Kristiansand had to accept bids below their asking prices Table 6 Summary (Final Selling Price - Ask Price) / Ask Price Oslo Bergen Trondheim Stavanger Kristiansand Tromsø Drammen Bodø Norway jul. 15 10,6 % 4,7 % 3,0 % -3,6 % -1,6 % 0,6 % 1,5 % 2,9 % 1,7 % Average 4,9 % 4,6 % 2,6 % 2,1 % 1,4 % -0,5 % 2,2 % 1,5 % 2,2 % All-time high 10,6 % 11,8 % 7,8 % 10,2 % 10,0 % 4,0 % 8,2 % 5,6 % 6,2 % Date All time high (2005-2015) jul. 15 jan. 05 feb. 13 aug. 06 feb. 07 feb. 07 jan. 13 sep. 06 aug. 06 All-time low -6,4 % -5,1 % -5,9 % -6,5 % -7,1 % -8,9 % -3,3 % -7,7 % -5,8 % Date All time low (2005-2015) des. 08 des. 08 nov. 08 nov. 08 des. 08 okt. 08 jan. 09 des. 08 des. 08 Source: Eiendomsverdi

Housing starts in Norway for June Source:SSB

12 month rolling rate Source:SSB

Eiendomsverdi s estimates: transaction prices over-estimated by 1,0 % 4,0 % 3,0 % 2,0 % 1,0 % 0,0 % -1,0 % -2,0 % -3,0 % -4,0 % -5,0 % 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Contact information Eiendomsverdi AS Trelastgaten 3 PB. 1052 Sentrum, N- 0104 Oslo Tel: 23 00 28 20 Fax: 23 00 28 30 post@eiendomsverdi.no www.eiendomsverdi.no Housing Research Sigmund Aas Tel: 23 00 28 33 E-mail: saa@eiendomsverdi.no Housing Research Anders Lund Tel: 23 00 28 37 E-Mail: al@eiendomsverdi.no