Under Embargo Until February 5, 2014 Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global and North America (NA) Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update 2013-2018 February 2014
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Expanding the Scope of Cisco s IP Thought Leadership Cisco VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth. This study focuses on consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers. Global Forecast Data Global Mobile Speed Data Cisco Confidential 2
Global Mobile Data Traffic Drivers More Mobile Connections Faster Mobile Speeds More Mobile Users More Mobile Video 2013 7.0 Billion 2018 10.2 Billion 2013 1.4 Mbps 2018 2.5 Mbps 2013 4.1 Billion 2018 4.9 Billion 2013 53% of Traffic 2018 69% of Traffic Cisco Confidential 3
Overview Cisco Confidential 4
By 2018, global mobile data traffic will reach an annual run rate of 190 exabytes per year, up from 18 exabytes in 2013 (nearly 11-fold growth). 190X More than all IP traffic generated in 2000 42 Trillion images (e.g., MMS or Instagram) 4 Trillion video clips (e.g., YouTube) 2013-2014 Cisco and/or Cisco and/or its affiliates. its affiliates. All rights All reserved. rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 5
Exabytes per Month Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line Global Mobile Data Traffic will Increase Nearly 11-Fold from 2013 2018 61% CAGR 2013 2018 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1.5 EB 2.6 EB 4.4 EB 7.0 EB 10.8 EB 15.9 EB 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Cisco Confidential 6
Year in Review 2013 Strong Growth Reported Worldwide Country Trend Korea As reported by regulator KCC, mobile data traffic grew 70% between 3Q 2012 and 3Q 2013. China Mobile data traffic of China s top 3 mobile operators grew 72% from mid-2012 to mid-2013. Japan Mobile data traffic grew 92% in 2012 and 66% from 3Q 2012 to 3Q 2013, according to Japan s MIC. India Bharti Airtel reported mobile data traffic growth of 112% between 3Q 2012 and 3Q 2013. Reliance Communications reported mobile data traffic growth of 116% between 3Q 2012 and 3Q 2013. Australia As reported by ACMA, mobile data traffic grew 47% from mid-2012 to mid-2013. Italy As reported by AGCOM, mobile traffic in Italy in 3Q13 was up 34% Y/Y. France As reported by ARCEP, mobile traffic in France was up 60% from 2Q 2013 to 2Q 2012. Germany As reported by BNA, mobile traffic in Germany grew 40% in 2012. Sweden As reported by PTS, mobile traffic in Sweden grew 69 percent from mid-2012 to mid-2013. Russia Vimpelcom reported mobile data traffic growth of 106% from 3Q 2012 to 3Q 2013. Other Vodafone s Y/Y global mobile traffic growth was 60% from 1Q FY12 to 1Q FY13. Vodafone s European traffic grew 35% during FY 12-13, up from 18% the previous FY 11-12. Cisco Confidential 7
Exabytes per Month Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Regions MEA has the Highest Growth Rate (70%) from 2013 2018 APAC will Generate 42% of all Mobile Data Traffic by 2018 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Latin America (LATAM) Middle East and Africa (MEA) Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Western Europe (WE) North America (NA) Asia Pacific (APAC) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 61% CAGR 2013 2018 7.3% 9.4% 10.3% 12.0% 18.6% 42.4% Cisco Confidential 8
Global Mobile Data Traffic Mobile Data Traffic Will Increase Nearly 11-Fold From 1.5 EB/month in 2013 to 15.9 EB/month by 2018 North America Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe 7.6-fold Growth 389 to 2,954 PB/mo 7.5-fold Growth 254 to 1,900 PB/mo 13.2-fold Growth 124 to 1,641 PB/mo Latin America Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific 12.6-fold Growth 92 to 1,158 PB/mo 14.1-fold Growth 106 to 1,490 PB/mo 12.8-fold Growth 524 to 6,718 PB/mo Cisco Confidential 9
Average Mobile User (Cellular Traffic per Month) GLOBAL Global MB per Month BY REGION North America Western Europe Central & Eastern Europe Asia-Pacific Latin America Middle East & Africa 2013 2018 356 3,049 1,384 8,996 717 4,814 339 4,046 239 2,404 216 2,359 185 1,983 Cisco Confidential 10
Average Mobile User (Cellular Traffic per Month) Sample Global Usage 2013 2018 356 MB Traffic/month 2 Hours of Video 2 Hours of Audio 5 Video Calls 2 App Downloads 3.0 GB Traffic/month 20 Hours of Video 10 Hours of Audio 10 Video Calls 20 App Downloads Cisco Confidential 11
Regional Mobile Networking Dynamics 2013 to 2018 Unique Conditions Affect Each Region s Mobile Data Traffic Growth Region # of Mobile Users # of Mobile Devices / M2M # of Users 2GB / Month Avg. Mobile Speed Mobile Data Traffic Asia Pacific 2.7B users +4% (CAGR) 5.1B connects +8% (CAGR) 835M 2GB users +76% (CAGR) 2 Mbps +8% (CAGR) 6.7 EBs/Mo +67% (CAGR) Central & Eastern Europe 385M users +1% (CAGR) 874M connects +6% (CAGR) 128M 2GB users +108% (CAGR) 2.3 Mbps +11% (CAGR) 1.6 EBs/Mo +68% (CAGR) Latin America 467M users +2% (CAGR) 947M connects +6% (CAGR) 137M 2GB users +101% (CAGR) 1.0 Mbps +8% (CAGR) 1.2 EBs/Mo +66% (CAGR) Middle East & Africa 733M users +5% (CAGR) 1.6B connects +8% (CAGR) 207M 2GB users +107% (CAGR) 0.9 Mbps +11% (CAGR) 1.5 EBs/Mo +70% (CAGR) North America 301M users +2% (CAGR) 736M connects +12% (CAGR) 156M 2GB users +21% (CAGR) 4.5 Mbps +21% (CAGR) 3.0 EBs/Mo +50% (CAGR) Western Europe 364M users +1% (CAGR) 938M connects +10% (CAGR) 148M 2GB users +35% (CAGR) 3.0 Mbps +14% (CAGR) 1.9 EBs/Mo +50% (CAGR) Note: The numbers above pertain to 2018, and the CAGR s are for 2013 2018 period. Cisco Confidential 12
Drivers Cisco Confidential 13
Global Mobile Users From Over 4 Billion in 2013 to Nearly 5 Billion by 2018 at 3.5% CAGR Global Mobile Users Growing 3.2X Faster Than Global Population North America Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe 2013: 278 M 2018: 301 M CAGR 1.6% 2013: 349 M 2018: 364 M CAGR 0.9% 2013: 361 M 2018: 385 M CAGR 1.3% Latin America Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific 2013: 419 M 2018: 467 M CAGR 2.2% 2013: 565 M 2018: 733 M CAGR 5.3% 2013: 2,153 M 2018: 2,653 M CAGR 4.3% Cisco Confidential 14
Global Mobile Device and Connections From 7 Billion in 2013 to Over10 Billion by 2018 at 8% CAGR North America 2013: 425 M 2018: 736 M CAGR 11.6% Western Europe 2013: 590 M 2018: 938 M CAGR 9.7% Central/Eastern Europe 2013: 655 M 2018: 874 M CAGR 5.9% Latin America 2013: 717 M 2018: 947 M CAGR 5.7% Middle East & Africa 2013: 1,116 M 2018: 1,628 M CAGR 7.9% Asia Pacific 2013: 3,506 M 2018: 5,107 M CAGR 7.8% Cisco Confidential 15
Global Mobile Speed Growth Average Mobile Speed Will Nearly Double From 1.4 Mbps (2013) to 2.5 Mbps (2018) North America Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe 2.6-fold Growth 1.7 to 4.5 Mbps 1.9-fold Growth 1.6 to 3.0 Mbps 1.7-fold Growth 1.4 to 2.3 Mbps Latin America Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific 1.5-fold Growth 0.7 to 1 Mbps 1.7-fold Growth 0.5 to 0.9 Mbps 1.5-fold Growth 1.3 to 2.0 Mbps Cisco Confidential 16
Global Mobile Video Traffic By 2018 Video Drives 69% of Global Mobile Data Traffic, Up From 53% in 2013 North America Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe 67% of traffic by 2018 56% CAGR 71% of traffic by 2018 59% CAGR 64% of traffic by 2018 76% CAGR Latin America Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific 72% of traffic by 2018 74% CAGR 76% of traffic by 2018 84% CAGR 69% of traffic by 2018 75% CAGR Cisco Confidential 17
Top Trends Cisco Confidential 18
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2013 2018 Top Mobile Networking Trends 1 Transitioning to Smarter Mobile Devices 2 Measuring IoE Adoption Emerging Wearable Devices 3 Analyzing Mobile Applications Video Dominance 4 Profiling Bandwidth Consumption by Device 5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/ Offload by Access Type (2G/3G/4G) 6 Comparing Mobile Network Speeds Wi-Fi Wins 7 Reviewing Tiered Pricing Managing Top Mobile Users 8 Adopting IPv6 Beyond an Emerging Protocol 9 Defining Mobile Prime Time Peak vs. Average Usage Cisco Confidential 19
Billions of Devices Global Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2018, Smartphones Will Gain 14 Points to Reach 39% Share 12 10 Other Portable Devices (0.3%,0.3%) Tablets (1.3%,5.0%) Laptops (2.1%,2.6%) M2M (4.9%,19.7%) Smartphones (24.9%,38.5%) Non-Smartphones (66.4%,33.9%) 8% CAGR 2013 2018 8 6 4 2 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device share Cisco Confidential 20
Billions of Devices or Connections Global Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share 7 6 4G 3G 2G 59% 5 68% 48% 4 3 44% 26% 2 29% 1 8% 15% 0 3% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Cisco Confidential 21
Billions of Devices Global Growth of Smart Mobile Devices & Connections By 2018, Smart Devices Will Have 54% Share 12 10 Non-smart Devices and Connections Smart Devices and Connections 8% CAGR 2013 2018 8 6 79% 74% 68% 61% 54% 46% 4 2 0 54% 46% 32% 39% 21% 26% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 * Smart devices are those having advanced computing capabilities with a minimum of 3G connectivity. Cisco Confidential 22
Smart Devices & Connections Share Percent of Total Mobile Devices & Connections Global BY REGION North America Western Europe Central & Eastern Europe Latin America Asia-Pacific Middle East & Africa 2013 2018 21% 54% 65% 93% 45% 83% 15% 61% 14% 55% 17% 47% 10% 36% Cisco Confidential 23
Exabytes per Month Global Impact of Smart Devices & Connections on Mobile Traffic By 2018, Smart Devices Will Have 96% Share of Traffic 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Non-smart Traffic Smart Traffic 12% 88% 10% 90% 9% 91% 93% 95% 96% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 61% CAGR 2013 2018 * Smart traffic is generated by devices with advanced computing capabilities and a 3G connection (or higher). 7% 5% 4% Cisco Confidential 24
Smart Devices & Connections Traffic Share Percent of Total Mobile Devices & Connections Traffic Global BY REGION North America Western Europe Central & Eastern Europe Latin America Asia-Pacific Middle East & Africa 2013 2018 88% 96% 98% 100% 95% 100% 75% 95% 81% 96% 85% 95% 76% 90% Cisco Confidential 25
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2013 2018 Top Mobile Networking Trends 1 Transitioning to Smarter Mobile Devices 2 Measuring IoE Adoption Emerging Wearable Devices 3 Analyzing Mobile Applications Video Dominance 4 Profiling Bandwidth Consumption by Device 5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/ Offload by Access Type (2G/3G/4G) 6 Comparing Mobile Network Speeds Wi-Fi Wins 7 Reviewing Tiered Pricing Managing Top Mobile Users 8 Adopting IPv6 Beyond an Emerging Protocol 9 Defining Mobile Prime Time Peak vs. Average Usage Cisco Confidential 26
Billions of M2M Connections Global M2M Connection Growth Global M2M Connections will Grow 6-Fold from 2013-2018; By 2018, More Than Half of Global M2M Connections Will be on 3G 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.3 B 28% 71% 3G 2G 4G 0.5 B 34% 64% 0.8 B 41% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 * In 2013, 4G accounts for 0.43% of global mobile M2M connections. In 2014,1.5% connections, in 2015, 3% connections and in 2016,5.6% connections are 4G. 41% 56% 1.1 B 47% 48% 1.6 B 50% 9% 2.0 B 51% 35% 14% 43% CAGR 2013 2018 Cisco Confidential 27
Millions of Connected Wearables % with Embedded Cellular Connectivity Global Connected Wearable Devices Global Connected Wearables will Grow 8-Fold from 2013-2018; By 2018, 13 Percent will Have Embedded Cellular Connectivity 52% CAGR 2013 2018 200 177 M 180 160 140 127 M 120 100 88 M 80 58 M 60 36 M 40 22 M 20 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Cisco Confidential 28
Millions of Connected Wearables Regional Connected Wearable Devices North America Will Maintain the Largest Share 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Western Europe (25%, 26%) North America (42%, 34%) Middle East & Africa (3%, 4%) Latin America (5%, 5%) Central & Eastern Europe (5%, 6%) Asia Pacific (21%, 25%) 22 M 36 M 58 M 88 M 127 M 177 M 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 regional wearable device share 52% CAGR 2013 2018 Cisco Confidential 29
Global Connected Wearable Devices Traffic Global Connected Wearables Traffic will Grow 36-Fold from 2013-2018 Monthly Traffic (PB) % of Smartphone Traffic 105% CAGR 2013 2018 70 61 60 50 40 34 30 20 17 9 10 4 2 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Cisco Confidential 30
Monthly Traffic (PB) Regional Connected Wearable Devices Traffic North America Will Maintain the Largest Share 70 60 50 40 30 Western Europe (17%, 21%) North America (65%, 50%) Middle East & Africa (1%, 2%) Latin America (2%, 3%) Central & Eastern Europe (3%, 5%) 34 Asia Pacific (12%, 19%) 105% CAGR 2013 2018 61 20 17 10 9 2 4 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 regional wearable devices traffic share Cisco Confidential 31
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2013 2018 Top Mobile Networking Trends 1 Transitioning to Smarter Mobile Devices 2 Measuring IoE Adoption Emerging Wearable Devices 3 Analyzing Mobile Applications Video Dominance 4 Profiling Bandwidth Consumption by Device 5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/ Offload by Access Type (2G/3G/4G) 6 Comparing Mobile Network Speeds Wi-Fi Wins 7 Reviewing Tiered Pricing Managing Top Mobile Users 8 Adopting IPv6 Beyond an Emerging Protocol 9 Defining Mobile Prime Time Peak vs. Average Usage Cisco Confidential 32
Exabytes per Month Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps Video to Exceed 69 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2018 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Mobile File Sharing (2.9%) Mobile M2M (5.7%) Mobile Audio (10.6%) Mobile Web/Data (11.7%) Mobile Video (69.1%) Figures (n) refer to 2018 traffic share 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 61% CAGR 2013 2018 Cisco Confidential 33
Global Mobile Cloud Traffic Cloud Accounted for 82% of Mobile Data Traffic in 2013 Cloud Will Account for 90% of Mobile Data Traffic by 2018 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 18% 17% 15% 14% 12% 10% 82% 83% 85% 86% 88% 90% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Mobile Non-Cloud Traffic IP Voice File Sharing File/App Downloading Mobile Cloud Traffic Video Streaming Audio Streaming Online Gaming Social Networking Web Browsing Online Storage Cisco Confidential 34
Top Global Traffic Generating Apps Top Traffic-Generating Mobile Apps (Android) Top Traffic-Generating WiFi Apps (Android) Facebook Social Media Netflix Video Streaming YouTube Video Streaming Instagram Image Sharing Netflix Video Streaming Dropbox File Sharing TubeMate Video Downloading Facebook Social Media Instagram Image Sharing YouTube Video Streaming TuneIn Audio Streaming Flipboard News SoundCloud Audio Streaming TuneIn Audio Streaming Flipboard News VLC Media Player Video Streaming Skype Communications BSPlayer Video Streaming Twitter Communications Spotify Audio Streaming Dropbox File Sharing NYTimes News Spotify Audio Streaming Hulu Video Streaming Pandora Audio Streaming TubeMate Video Streaming Cisco Confidential 35
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2013 2018 Top Mobile Networking Trends 1 Transitioning to Smarter Mobile Devices 2 Measuring IoE Adoption Emerging Wearable Devices 3 Analyzing Mobile Applications Video Dominance 4 Profiling Bandwidth Consumption by Device 5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/ Offload by Access Type (2G/3G/4G) 6 Comparing Mobile Network Speeds Wi-Fi Wins 7 Reviewing Tiered Pricing Managing Top Mobile Users 8 Adopting IPv6 Beyond an Emerging Protocol 9 Defining Mobile Prime Time Peak vs. Average Usage Cisco Confidential 36
Global Average Mobile Connection (Devices and M2M); Traffic per Month GLOBAL Global MB per Month BY REGION North America Western Europe Asia-Pacific Latin America Central & Eastern Europe Middle East & Africa 2013 2018 212 1,550 914 4,012 430 2,027 149 1,315 128 1,223 189 1,887 95 915 Cisco Confidential 37
Mobile Device Data Traffic 2013 Mobile Device Data Traffic Generation Comparisons M2M Module = 6 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) Wearable Device = Smartphone 7 X 49 X Tablet = 127 X Laptop = = 227 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) Cisco Confidential 38
Average Traffic Per Mobile Device Type 2013 MBs per Month 2018 MBs per Month Non-Smartphone 10.8 45 M2M 61 451 Wearable 78 345 Smartphone 529 2,672 Tablet 1,374 5,609 Laptop 2,455 5,095 Note: In 2013, 4G Smartphones generated 2 GBs/month and 4G Tablets generated 2.4 GBs/month Cisco Confidential 39
Wearable Device Usage Day in the Life of Smart Glass (249 MB) High Usage Scenario Traffic in MB Video Communication Navigation Audio Streaming Video Upload Cisco Confidential 40
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2013 2018 Top Mobile Networking Trends 1 Transitioning to Smarter Mobile Devices 2 Measuring IoE Adoption Emerging Wearable Devices 3 Analyzing Mobile Applications Video Dominance 4 Profiling Bandwidth Consumption by Device 5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/ Offload by Access Type (2G/3G/4G) 6 Comparing Mobile Network Speeds Wi-Fi Wins 7 Reviewing Tiered Pricing Managing Top Mobile Users 8 Adopting IPv6 Beyond an Emerging Protocol 9 Defining Mobile Prime Time Peak vs. Average Usage Cisco Confidential 41
Exabytes per Month Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G Globally, 4G Will Be 51% of Mobile Traffic by 2018 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 2-2.5G 3-3.5G 4G 46% 4 51% 9% 2 60% 30% 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 3% Cisco Confidential 42
Globally, in 2013, a 4G connection generated 2.2 GB/mo, 14.5X higher than the 153 MB/mo for non-4g connections. 2013-2014 Cisco and/or Cisco and/or its affiliates. its affiliates. All rights All reserved. rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 43
Exabytes per Month Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload* 52% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2018 45% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2013 35 30 25 Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices 48% 20 15 10 5 52% 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 *Offload pertains to traffic from dual mode devices (i.e., supports cell & wi-fi; exc. laptops) over wi-fi/small cell networks Cisco Confidential 44
Mobile and Offload Traffic from Mobile-Connected Devices Global Mobile Data Traffic and Offload Traffic, 2018 4G Devices Offload More Traffic Than 3G and 2G 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 51% 44% 60% 56% 49% 40% 2G 3G 4G Mobile Traffic Offload Traffic Cisco Confidential 45
Globally, the amount of traffic offloaded from tablets will be 69% by 2018. Globally, the amount of traffic offloaded from smartphones will be 51% by 2018. 2013-2014 Cisco and/or Cisco and/or its affiliates. its affiliates. All rights All reserved. rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 46
Petabytes per Month Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology Starting in 2016, Fixed/Wi-Fi Traffic Surpasses Fixed/Wired Traffic 120,000 100,000 80,000 Mobile Data (67% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (13% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi (26% CAGR) 23% CAGR 2012 2017 10% 42% 60,000 40,000 20,000 48% 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Cisco Confidential 47
Cellular vs. Wi-Fi Only Tablets Ratio Global Tablet Connectivity: Cellular vs. Wi-Fi Only Cellular Continues to Gain Share 70% Wi-Fi Only Cellular 60% 50% 40% 66% 58% 42% 30% 34% 20% 10% 0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Cisco Confidential 48
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2013 2018 Top Mobile Networking Trends 1 Transitioning to Smarter Mobile Devices 2 Measuring IoE Adoption Emerging Wearable Devices 3 Analyzing Mobile Applications Video Dominance 4 Profiling Bandwidth Consumption by Device 5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/ Offload by Access Type (2G/3G/4G) 6 Comparing Mobile Network Speeds Wi-Fi Wins 7 Reviewing Tiered Pricing Managing Top Mobile Users 8 Adopting IPv6 Beyond an Emerging Protocol 9 Defining Mobile Prime Time Peak vs. Average Usage Cisco Confidential 49
Mobile Network Speeds to Increase Nearly 2-fold by 2018 Average Mobile Connection Speed (1.4 Mbps in 2013); Will Grow at a 13% CAGR Reaching 2.5 Mbps by 2018 (kbps) GLOBAL Global Mobile Connection Global Smartphone Connection Global Tablet Connection BY REGION North America Western Europe Asia-Pacific Latin America Central & Eastern Europe Middle East & Africa 2013 2014 1,387 1,728 1,585 1,327 684 1,351 529 1,676 3,983 4,864 4,591 5,584 2,010 1,735 1,492 734 1,446 605 2015 2016 1,908 2,304 1,946 1,617 793 1,711 675 2,147 5,504 6,132 6,298 6,983 2,620 2,183 1,728 856 2,183 753 2017 2018 2,396 2,988 2,452 1,863 924 2,128 832 2,509 6,756 7,044 8,018 8,998 4,549 3,003 1,992 999 2,269 900 CAGR 2013 2018 13% 12% 14% 21% 14% 8% 8% 11% 11% Cisco Confidential 50
Global Average Wi-Fi Speeds Wi-Fi exceeds Mobile speeds during 2013-2018 (Mbps) GLOBAL Global Mbps BY REGION North America Western Europe Asia-Pacific Latin America Central & Eastern Europe Middle East & Africa 2013 2018 3.9 13.6 10.7 7.9 5.7 11.7 3.2 23.7 25.8 19.4 22.0 11.9 27.2 4.7 Cisco Confidential 51
Mbps Global Mobile Speeds by Device Type Tablet Speeds are 3.6x Higher than Average by 2018 Smartphone Speeds are 2.8x Higher than Average by 2018 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Tablets Smartphones All Mobile Devices 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 9 Mbps 7 Mbps 3 Mbps Cisco Confidential 52
Mbps Global Mobile Speeds by Network Type 4G Speeds will be 6X Higher than Average by 2018 3-3.5G Speeds will be 2X Higher than Average by 2018 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 4G 3G All Network Types 2G 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 14 Mbps 5 Mbps 3 Mbps 92 Kbps Cisco Confidential 53
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2013 2018 Top Mobile Networking Trends 1 Transitioning to Smarter Mobile Devices 2 Measuring IoE Adoption Emerging Wearable Devices 3 Analyzing Mobile Applications Video Dominance 4 Profiling Bandwidth Consumption by Device 5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/ Offload by Access Type (2G/3G/4G) 6 Comparing Mobile Network Speeds Wi-Fi Wins 7 Reviewing Tiered Pricing Managing Top Mobile Users 8 Adopting IPv6 Beyond an Emerging Protocol 9 Defining Mobile Prime Time Peak vs. Average Usage Cisco Confidential 54
Percentage of Top 1 percent to total MB/mo Top Mobile User Profiles: 2010 2013 Top 1 Percent Generates10 Percent in Sept 2013 60% 50% 40% 30% 52% Top 1 % 20% 24% 10% 16% 10% 0% Jan-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Cisco Confidential 55
MB per User per Month Remaining 99% Growing Faster than Top 1% 100% Top 1% 90% Remaining 99% 80% 70% 84% 90% 60% 50% 52% 40% 48% 30% 20% 10% 16% 10% 0% Jan-10 Sep-12 Sep-13 Cisco Confidential 56
Top Tier %Usage Top 10% Consumes Nearly as Much as the Remaining 90% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Top 1% Oct-12 Remaining 99% Top 5% Jun-13 Remaining 95% Top 10% Remaining 90% Top 20% Remaining 80% Cisco Confidential 57
Megabytes per Month All Top Tiers Increase in Usage from 2011 to 2013 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 Top 20% Top 10% Top 5% Top 1% 10,000 5,000 0 Oct-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Cisco Confidential 58
Percentage of Users 3 Percent of Users Consume 5 GB per Month 24 Percent Consume over 2 GB per Month 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Greater than 5 GB Greater than 2 GB Greater than 200 MB Greater than 20 MB Oct-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 3% 24% 75% 93% 97% Greater than 1 MB Cisco Confidential 59
Megabytes per Month ios Usage Surpasses Android 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 850 MB/mo 1,325 MB/mo 1,255 MB/mo 652 MB/mo 960 MB/mo 1,296 MB/mo Oct-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 200 0 Android ios Cisco Confidential 60
% Number of Mobile Data Plans Tiered Plans Outnumber Unlimited Plans; Unlimited Plans Continue to Lead in Data Consumption 100% 80% 60% 739 MB 1,261 MB 1,890 MB Unlimited Tiered 40% 20% 425 MB 922 MB 1,081 MB 0% Oct-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Cisco Confidential 61
% Number of Mobile Data Plans Number of Shared Plans Increase No Impact on Usage 100% 80% Regular Plans Shared Plans 60% 792 MB 1.4 MB 40% 20% 946 MB 0% 648 MB Oct-12 Sep-13 Cisco Confidential 62
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2013 2018 Top Mobile Networking Trends 1 Transitioning to Smarter Mobile Devices 2 Measuring IoE Adoption Emerging Wearable Devices 3 Analyzing Mobile Applications Video Dominance 4 Profiling Bandwidth Consumption by Device 5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/ Offload by Access Type (2G/3G/4G) 6 Comparing Mobile Network Speeds Wi-Fi Wins 7 Reviewing Tiered Pricing Managing Top Mobile Users 8 Adopting IPv6 Beyond an Emerging Protocol 9 Defining Mobile Prime Time Peak vs. Average Usage Cisco Confidential 63
Number of Devices (B) Global IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices/Connections By 2018, 4.9B Total IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices/Connections 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.3B 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 31% CAGR 2013 2018 4.9B Cisco Confidential 64
Exabytes per Month Global IPv6 Mobile Data Traffic Forecast By 2018, IPv6 Traffic Projected to be 42% of Mobile Data Traffic 7 6 5 136% CAGR 2013 2018 6.6 EB/ month 4 3 2 1 0.09 EB/ month 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Cisco Confidential 65
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2013 2018 Top Mobile Networking Trends 1 Transitioning to Smarter Mobile Devices 2 Measuring IoE Adoption Emerging Wearable Devices 3 Analyzing Mobile Applications Video Dominance 4 Profiling Bandwidth Consumption by Device 5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/ Offload by Access Type (2G/3G/4G) 6 Comparing Mobile Network Speeds Wi-Fi Wins 7 Reviewing Tiered Pricing Managing Top Mobile Users 8 Adopting IPv6 Beyond an Emerging Protocol 9 Defining Mobile Prime Time Peak vs. Average Usage Cisco Confidential 66
Tbps Busy Hour Mobile Data Traffic Busy Hour Is 66% Higher Than Average Hour in 2013, 83% in 2018 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Average Hour Traffic Busy Hour Traffic 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Cisco Confidential 67
Conclusion Cisco Confidential 68
Cisco VNI Global Mobile Forecast, 2013 2018 Key Takeaways / Summary Global Mobile Data Traffic By 2018, mobile data traffic will reach 15.9 EBs/per month (190 EBs annually). Global Mobile Traffic Offload By 2018, 52% of mobile data traffic will be offloaded to Wi-Fi/small cell networks. Global Mobile Smart Devices Traffic By 2018, smart devices will generate 96% of global mobile data traffic. Global Mobile Video By 2018, over 69% of the world s mobile data traffic will be video. Global Mobile Network Speeds By 2018, avg mobile connection speed will nearly double (1.4 Mbps to 2.5 Mbps). Global Mobile Devices/Connections By 2018, there will be 1.4 mobile connections per capita globally. Cisco Confidential 69
Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast; 2013 2018 Get more info see Tools and Resources www.cisco.com/go/vni traffic-inquiries@cisco.com Cisco Confidential 70
Thank you.
Exabytes per Month Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth Last Year Global Mobile Data Traffic Accelerated in 2013 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 81% 70% 74% 68% 61% 54% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Cisco Confidential 72
Average Mobile Connection; Traffic per Month 2013 2018 220 MB Traffic/month 1 Hour of Video 2 Hours of Audio 1 Video Call 1 App Download 1.8 GB Traffic/month 10 Hours of Video 10 Hours of Audio 3 Video Calls 10 App Downloads Cisco Confidential 73
Number of Devices (B) Global IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices/Connections By 2018, 3.5B Smartphones/Tablets IPv6-Capable 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 837M 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 33% CAGR 2013 2018 3.5B Cisco Confidential 74