Contents (Click on the topics) 1. Recap 2. Physical Market Rates 3. Arrivals 4. Weather 5. Charts and Outlook 6. Disclaimer 1
Recap Indian markets NCDEX % Vol. Previous Close Open High Low % Volume Soybean APR5 3345 3366 3361 3373 3352 21 0.63 25900 22.05 72010-4200 JUN5 3375 3393 3398 3399 3381 18 0.53 8910 87.18 46320 2280 AUG5 3383 3415 3412 3418 3405 32 0.95 3680 148.65 7700 2260 OCT5 3160 3184 3185 3185 3182 24 0.76 40 0.00 990-20 Total Change in = 320 Spread Apr-2015 Jun-2015 Aug-2015 Oct-2015 Apr-2015-27 -49 182 Jun-2015-22 209 Aug-2015 231 NCDEX % Vol. Previous Close Open High Low % Volume Soy Oil APR5 582.30 589.00 584.30 589.50 583.20 6.70 1.15 28365-27.55 67195-2540 JUN5 556.55 562.45 558.20 562.80 558.00 5.90 1.06 21950-11.04 118450-3310 AUG5 544.90 549.10 544.35 549.40 544.35 4.20 0.77 8985-10.19 80795 1930 OCT5 540.95 546.70 544.75 549.50 544.35 5.75 1.06 230-67.83 4430-5 Total Change in = -3925 Spread Apr-2015 Jun-2015 Aug-2015 Oct-2015 Apr-2015 26.55 39.90 42.30 Jun-2015 13.35 15.75 Aug-2015 2.40 NCDEX RM % Vol. Previous Close Open High Low % Volume Seed APR5 3398 3386 3405 3410 3375-12 -0.35 26580-4.90 34330-3340 MAY5 3400 3386 3409 3412 3378-14 -0.41 18150-16.70 33680-1040 JUN5 3439 3421 3451 3451 3413-18 -0.52 4300 270.69 9250 240 JUL5 3486 3468 3475 3477 3455-18 -0.52 1180 40.48 3330 590 Total Change in = -3550 Spread Apr-2015 May-2015 Jun-2015 Jul-2015 Apr-2015 0-35 -82 May-2015-35 -82 Jun-2015-47 Indian oilseed complex prices closed mixed with Soy prices moving higher and RM Seed prices moving lower yesterday. Rupee ended higher yesterday. Soy meal exports from India fell to 64,514 MT in February from 104,426 MT in January. India's oil meal exports in February 2015 were 181K MT vs. 185K MT in previous month. Veg. oil imports in February 2015 were at 0.845 million MT vs. 1.08 million MT in Jan 2015. Traders estimate this year s Soybean crop between 9 10 million MT. USDA estimates Indian 2
Soybean crop at 11.0 million MT. COT expects Indian Soy crop at 9.17 million MT. USDA estimated Indian 2014-15 crop at 10.5 million MT. Indian RM Seed output in 2014-15 may be 7.0 million MT vs. 7.4 million MT in the previous year. However, private trade estimates are near 5.8 million MT. According to 2 nd Advance estimates for 2014-15 released by GoI, India s output for Soybean is estimated at 11.64 million MT and that of RM Seed at 7.36 million MT. NCDEX Warehouse Inventory 20-Mar-15 22-Mar-15 Soybean - Akola 212 212 Soybean - Indore 1083 1083 TOTAL SOYBEAN 1295 1295 India Physical Market Rates Date Commodity Rate Units 23-Mar-15 Soybean - Indore - NCDEX 3398.00 Rs. / 100 Kg 23-Mar-15 Soybean - Kota - NCDEX 3230.00 Rs. / 100 Kg 23-Mar-15 Refined Soy oil - Indore - NCDEX 599.55 Rs. / 10 Kg 23-Mar-15 Refined Soy oil - Mumbai - NCDEX 578.00 Rs. / 10 Kg 23-Mar-15 Refined Soy oil - Nagpur - NCDEX 589.50 Rs. / 10 Kg 23-Mar-15 Soybean meal Export - Kandla - NCDEX 29600.00 Rs. / MT 23-Mar-15 Soybean meal - Indore - NCDEX 29100.00 Rs. / MT 23-Mar-15 Soy meal Export Kandla FAS - SEA 452.00 USD / MT 23-Mar-15 Mustard meal Export Kandla FAS - SEA 252.00 USD / MT 23-Mar-15 Mustard oil - Sri Ganganagar - NCDEX 690.00 Rs. / 10 Kg 3
International CBOT Soybean Previous Close Open High Low % MAY5 973.75 983.50 983.00 990.00 973.25 9.75 0.99 JUL5 978.00 988.00 984.50 994.50 977.25 10.00 1.01 AUG5 977.25 986.75 978.00 992.75 976.75 9.50 0.96 SEP5 962.50 971.50 965.25 976.50 962.50 9.00 0.93 NOV5 956.25 965.00 966.00 970.00 954.00 8.75 0.91 CBOT Soy Meal Previous Close Open High Low % MAY5 324.0 327.3 328.0 329.0 323.1 3.3 1.01 JUL5 321.9 324.9 325.6 326.6 320.8 3.0 0.92 AUG5 320.6 323.0 321.3 324.9 320.0 2.4 0.74 SEP5 319.2 321.1 318.7 322.8 318.7 1.9 0.59 OCT5 316.0 318.0 315.5 319.4 315.1 2.0 0.63 CBOT Soy Oil Previous Close Open High Low % MAY5 30.68 31.15 31.17 31.37 30.66 0.47 1.51 JUL5 30.89 31.36 31.17 31.57 30.87 0.47 1.50 AUG5 30.95 31.41 31.04 31.61 30.94 0.46 1.46 SEP5 31.00 31.44 31.09 31.62 30.98 0.44 1.40 OCT5 30.97 31.42 31.06 31.59 31.05 0.45 1.43 CBOT Soy complex prices closed higher yesterday on likely short covering triggered by Dollar weakness. According to CFTC CoT report, for the week ending 17 March, non commercial traders increased their net short positions in CBOT Soybeans. ICE Canola prices closed firm yesterday. 4
Physical Market Rates Physical Market Rates - Soybean Date Commodity Rate Units 24-Mar-15 Brazil Soybean March - FOB Paranagua 381.15 $ / MT 21-Mar-15 Argentina Soybean May - FOB Up River 371.05 $ / MT 23-Mar-15 China Imported Soybean Dalian 3250.00 CNY / MT 24-Mar-15 USA Soybean April - FOB Gulf 391.80 $ / MT Physical Market Rates - Soy meal Date Commodity Rate Units 24-Mar-15 Brazil Soy meal March - FOB Paranagua 366.85 $ / MT 21-Mar-15 Argentina Soy meal April - FOB Up River 371.48 $ / MT 23-Mar-15 China HQ Soy meal Dalian 3240.00 CNY / MT Physical Market Rates - Soy Oil Date Commodity Rate Units 24-Mar-15 Brazil Soy Oil April - FOB Paranagua 644.90 $ / MT 21-Mar-15 Argentina Soy Oil April - FOB Up River 643.31 $ / MT 23-Mar-15 China Standard Soy Oil Dalian 5700.00 CNY / MT 23-Mar-15 India Soy Oil Degummed CIF Mumbai 722.00 $ / MT 5
Arrivals 6
IMD 7
Charts & Outlook NCDEX Charts NCDEX Soybean April (3366.00) Trade Recommendation: - None. NCDEX Soy Oil April (589.00) Trade Recommendation: - Buy above 582, S/L 578, TGT 589-594. This call is on. 1 st TGT hit. Trail S/L to 584. 8
NCDEX RM Seed April (3386.00) Trade Recommendation: - Sell below 3395, S/L 3433, TGT 3341-3306. This call is on. NCDEX Outlook: - Rupee is trading higher. Soybean prices may trade firm with supports at 3300 levels. Soy oil prices may firm towards 595 levels. RM Seed prices may move lower towards 3300 levels. CBOT Charts CBOT Soybean May (979.00) Trade Recommendation: - None. 9
CBOT Soy meal May (325.60) Trade Recommendation: - None. CBOT Soy Oil March (30.98) Trade Recommendation: - None. Outlook: - Lower Dollar is a positive force. Soybean/ meal / Soy oil prices may move higher towards resistance at 1000/ 330/ 31.70 levels. Key support level in Soy oil is at 30.00 levels. 10
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