Quad City Area Labor Study 2015 A Report by the YC Regional Economic Development Center 1100 E. Sheldon St., Prescott AZ 86301 yc.edu
The Quad City Area, inclusive of Prescott Valley, Prescott, Chino Valley, and Dewey-Humboldt, has a labor force that comprises a variety of skill and education levels, from vocational fields to professional, technical, and scientific occupations. The region boasts three universities that each carry a unique focus, a robust community college, and an exponentially growing joint-technical education district for vocational training in high school. The labor force in the area is a steady pipeline for entry-level to technical expert vocational careers and beginning to advanced professional careers. Technical Training Mountain Institute JTED is the regional educational district that focuses on training high school students in technical fields. Students can graduate from high school with a variety of industry certifications including welding, automotive, allied health, and culinary. MI0 MI-JTED Program Graduates 2014-2015 Pre-Engineering/Robotics 96 Welding 20 Networking 16 Culinary 57 Medical Professions 166 Auto AYES 50 YAVAPAI COLLEGE GRADUATED 1,565 STUDENTS IN MAY 2015 MANAGEMENT COMPUTER NETWORKING TECHNICIAN CNC MACHING MEDICAL ASISSTANT INDUSTRIAL MACHINE MECHANIC ACCOUNTING NURSING CISCO NETWORKING TECHNICIAN ELECTRONICS TECHNOLOGY ADMIN OFFICE SPECIALIST AGRICULTURE TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT Vocational & Academic Education Yavapai College serves more than 15,000 students per year through its 62 certificate programs and 32 Associates Degree programs. The college has 3 locations in the Quad City Area including the main campus in the heart of Prescott and the Prescott Valley Center focusing on Allied Health, Nursing, and Law Enforcement. The Career & Technical Education Center is 108,000 square feet dedicated to technical training in machining, welding, mill right, gunsmithing, diesel technology, industrial machine mechanics, electrical instrumentation, robotics, and electronics technology. The college offers several industry certifications through the vocational program. Yavapai College works closely with industry to ensure that curriculum is job-driven and includes superior technology. The college s Regional Economic Development Center provides on-site, contextual training for employers to fill entry level and mid-level labor needs. University System The Quad City Area has three universities that serve the local community. Embry-Riddle Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University 2014-2015 Graduates 339 Computer Engineering Electrical Engineering Mechanical Engineering Aeronautical Science 1 Aerospace Engineering Aviation Business Admin. Global Security & Intelligence Aviation Environmental Science
Aeronautical University is a premier academic academy for aviation and engineering. The College of Aviation fuels your aviation passion by offering the nation s most comprehensive academic programs for degrees in aviation and aerospace fields. The College of Engineering focuses on hands-on learning and interdisciplinary collaboration to ensure that our graduates are fully prepared to enter the industry. The College of Security & Intelligence boasts several high-tech, high-demand programs, including the first Global Security & Intelligence Studies program in the country. The College of Arts & Sciences offers a wealth of learning opportunities to choose from, the COAS truly puts the universe in the university experience at Prescott. Prescott College carries a unique emphasis on the liberal arts, the environment, and social justice. The institution offers a variety of Bachelor s degree in Science and Fine Arts, Master s programs in Liberal Arts, Education, and Science of Counseling, and Doctoral Programs in Education with an emphasis on Sustainability. NAU-Yavapai is an arm of Northern Arizona University located in Prescott Valley. The Yavapai Campus of Northern Arizona University provides students the opportunity to earn a respected Bachelor s degree in just three years. These structured degree programs enable students to earn a degree in a high-demand field quickly and prepare to succeed in today s workforce. Degree programs are offered in Service Industry Management, Applied Human Behavior, Community Development & Sustainability, and Entrepreneurship. 2015 Demographics Age 2014 Population 2014 Percent Under 20 years 26,190 20.1% 20 to 39 years 24,321 18.7% 40 to 59 years 31,775 24.4% 60 to 79 years 39,855 30.6% 80 years and over 8,180 6.3% Industry & Occupations Primary sectors that have experienced job growth or are signaling the high potential for growth are healthcare, microelectronic and advanced manufacturing, food and accommodation services, and retail trade and wholesale trade. Management, business and financial occupations across all sectors have also experienced a steady growth over the past 14 years exhibiting an 11% growth rate in related occupations. These sectors have been identified using quantitative and qualitative data to pinpoint areas of the economy that are presently experiencing high demand or have the potential to fill 2
future demand. This report includes traditional labor market information that are structural analytic sources to capture broad economic factors occurring in a market, and real-time analytic sources to capture the churn of talent demands in the marketplace. Traditional labor market information includes quantity of labor, wages, imports, exports, and changes over time in these variables. Real-time labor market information consists of a mixture of qualitative and quantitative information including job postings, industry growth, industry roundtables, surveys, and interviews. Current Labor Conditions Table 1 Job Count and Wage Correlation Industry 2014 Jobs 2015 Jobs Change in Jobs (2014-2015) % Change 2014 Earnings Per Worker Government 7,468 7,513 45 1% $55,166 Health Care and Social Assistance 7,013 7,251 238 3% $49,866 Retail Trade 6,344 6,465 121 2% $29,479 Accommodation and Food Services 3,464 3,554 90 3% $19,392 Construction 3,148 2,912-236 -7% $35,894 Manufacturing 2,410 2,465 56 2% $53,930 Other Services (except Public Administration) 2,276 2,300 23 1% $22,394 Educational Services 1,889 1,969 80 4% $43,259 Wholesale Trade 1,751 1,804 53 3% $63,047 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 1,602 1,526-76 -5% $31,648 Table 2 Highest Paying Occupations 3
The education and workforce development system in the Quad City Area cross-references indemand occupations with the fastest growing industries in the region to create a ready labor force that fulfills the needs of local employers for all levels of occupations. Curriculum at the local educational institutions is continually updated to include 21 st century, job-driven content. Education and training across the 4 municipalities is stratified according to Career Pathways Systems, whereby entry level training in manufacturing, healthcare, and business and retail management is available through short-term training options while also making movement up the educational ladder for degree programs accessible in all industry fields. Percentile Earnings Per Occupation $14.50/hr $17.67/hr $21.50/hr 25th Percentile Earnings Median Earnings 75th Percentile Earnings Occupation 25th Percentile Earnings Median Earnings 75th Percentile Earnings Management Occupations (11-0000) $24.45 $32.16 $41.75 Business and Financial Operations Occupations (13-0000) Computer and Mathematical Occupations (15-0000) Architecture and Engineering Occupations (17-0000) $19.53 $25.04 $31.40 $21.33 $26.68 $32.87 $23.67 $28.07 $32.61 4
Occupation 25th Percentile Earnings Median Earnings 75th Percentile Earnings Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations (19-0000) Community and Social Service Occupations (21-0000) $21.13 $25.72 $30.71 $16.13 $19.57 $23.26 Legal Occupations (23-0000) $24.08 $31.45 $40.07 Education, Training, and Library Occupations (25-0000) $16.31 $20.06 $25.22 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations (27-0000) $12.96 $15.60 $18.93 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations (29-0000) Healthcare Support Occupations (31-0000) Protective Service Occupations (33-0000) Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations (35-0000) Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations (37-0000) Personal Care and Service Occupations (39-0000) Sales and Related Occupations (41-0000) Office and Administrative Support Occupations (43-0000) Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations (45-0000) Construction and Extraction Occupations (47-0000) Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations (49-0000) $31.28 $37.94 $44.42 $11.35 $13.28 $16.00 $17.87 $21.66 $25.96 $8.90 $9.89 $11.04 $9.10 $10.23 $11.76 $8.91 $9.95 $11.38 $10.75 $12.97 $16.28 $11.91 $14.60 $17.70 $13.40 $14.68 $16.72 $14.37 $16.93 $20.27 $13.92 $17.57 $21.75 Production Occupations (51-0000) $13.23 $16.06 $19.52 Transportation and Material Moving Occupations (53-0000) $11.49 $14.19 $17.95 Military occupations (55-0000) $10.27 $16.72 $19.29 Unclassified Occupation (99-0000) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Table 3 Fastest Growing Industries 5
Industry 2010 Jobs 2015 Jobs Change in Jobs (2010-2015) % Change 2014 Earnings Per Worker Retail Trade 5,744 6,465 720 13% $29,479 Health Care and Social Assistance 6,642 7,251 609 9% $49,866 Accommodation and Food Services 2,990 3,554 565 19% $19,392 Manufacturing 2,048 2,465 417 20% $53,930 Educational Services 1,571 1,969 398 25% $43,259 Wholesale Trade 1,573 1,804 231 15% $63,047 Other Services (except Public Administration) 2,076 2,300 224 11% $22,394 Crop and Animal Production 179 249 70 39% $28,828 Unclassified Industry 10 66 56 580% $33,091 Transportation and Warehousing 644 658 14 2% $52,943 Analysis of the most competitive industries and our local industry location quotients prioritizes the sectors in which the region has a competitive advantage based on the unique qualities of the region and what sectors are emerging signaling a demand for job growth. The Industry Effect, National Growth Effect, and Competitive Effect combine to display a sector s growth and what the contributing factors may be. Industry Mix Effect measures how much growth was derived from growth in the industry sector over all. The National Growth Effect measures how much growth was derived from overall growth in the national economy. The Competitive Effect for the region identifies if local factors assisted in the growth for that industry sector. The Quad City Area displays a competitive effect for manufacturing, retail and wholesale trade, healthcare, information systems, food and accommodation, and crop and animal production. Table 4 Most Competitive Industries 6
Industry Job Change Ind Mix Effect Nat Growth Effect Expected Change Competitive Effect 2014 Earnings Per Worker Manufacturing 56-68 28-40 96 $53,930 Retail Trade 121-36 73 37 84 $29,479 Wholesale Trade 53-4 20 16 37 $63,047 Accommodation and Food Services Educational Services 90 22 40 62 29 $19,392 80 37 22 59 21 $43,259 Health Care and 238 145 80 225 12 $49,866 Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 17 4 8 12 6 $16,374 Crop and Animal 4-4 3-1 5 $28,828 Production Information -3-10 5-5 1 $43,599 Management of Companies and Enterprises 0 0 0 0-1 $44,365 Table 5 Industry Location Quotients 7
Industry Roundtables & Skill Demand The Yavapai College Regional Economic Development Center runs semiannual roundtables with primary industry sectors targeted for growth; manufacturing, healthcare, retail and wholesale trade, food/accommodation & retail, and agriculture. Results are shared with educational and training institutions throughout the region to create job-driven training. Examples of the results of these roundtables may be found below. Management Between 2011 and 2015, management occupations in Yavapai County had an average of 39 unique job postings (unduplicated) and 91 average monthly hires. Top management occupations researched include: General and Operations Managers, Sales Managers, Marketing Managers, Human Resources Managers, Lodging Managers, Public Relations and Fundraising Managers, Administrative Services Managers, Compensation and Benefits Managers, Advertising and Promotions Managers. Table 9 In-Demand Skills for 9 Managerial Occupations in U.S. Skill % of Job Postings with Skill Sales 48% 8
Skill % of Job Postings with Skill Marketing 36% Project 26% Finance 25% Planning 24% Maintenance, Repair, and Operations 24% Presentations 21% Collaboration 18% Meetings 18% Technology 17% Customer Service 16% Focus 15% Retail 15% Implementation 14% Reporting 13% Selling 13% Scheduling 12% Research 12% Business Development 10% Project Management 10% Forecasting 10% Partnership 9% Accuracy 9% Recruiting 9% Human Resources 8% Advertising 8% Staffing 8% Presentation Skills 7% Marketing Strategy 6% Consulting 6% Manufacturing Multiple industry roundtables in the manufacturing sector were held over 2014 in partnership with the Northern Arizona Manufacturing Association. Additionally, the YC REDC conducted several individual interviews with small, mid-sized, and large manufacturing firms and the primary mining companies in the Verde Valley. All companies enforced that internal training provides the contextual application required for the employees, therefore the greatest educational benefit is training and curriculum that encompasses the generalizable skills applicable for entry level positions and stackable local credentials that may be attained as an employee moves through their career. Table 10 In-Demand Skills for Entry Level and Mid-level Manufacturing Occupations 9
Soft skills: communication in the workplace (behavior), conflict resolution, team building, work ethics Manual dexterity Lean Manufacturing Beginning Mathematics Sales Critical thinking Chemistry Production management Bachelor s in Engineering Quality management Machining Understanding of the manufacturing environment Welding Safety - OSHA PPE, LO/TO, Record keeping Mill Right Food/Accommodation & Retail In terms of economic development and the goal of bringing in new dollars to the region, the food and accommodation and retail sectors fall under the umbrella of tourism in Yavapai County, and are thus addressed together when researching workforce needs. The REDC distributed two surveys in 2014. The first survey addressed the needs of the private sector, seeking to determine what the demand was for skilled culinary workers. Restaurateurs and resorts across the county were asked questions pertaining to their rate of turnover and hiring rate per annum, classification and wages of culinary staff, and willingness to pay for skilled workers. Surveys were distributed through the Chambers of Commerce in Prescott, Sedona, and Cottonwood and individual interviews with Enchantment Resort and Sedona Hilton. Although less respondents identified a high rate of turnover as an issue, 80% of respondents stated that they would be willing to increase their pay range for a higher skilled worker. The primary skill sets requested may be considered basic culinary skills and soft skills. Culinary programs, or rather, food service management programs typically have two tiers of instruction, the theoretical (cost control, nutrition, food safety, marketing, etc.) and the applied (culinary arts). These skills in addition to entrepreneurial education and industry requirements of Food Handler s card and Safe Serve complete the skill demand for the food industry. The second survey addressed the demand for culinary educational services form high school students. Students were asked if they were planning on attending college, whether or not they would enroll in a culinary program, and if they were interested in starting their own business (this was included to determine the need for entrepreneurial education within a culinary program.) The survey was distributed through VACTE to Sedona Red Rock HS, Camp Verde HS, and Mingus with 100% response rate for juniors and seniors. Students responded that 31% were planning on attending Yavapai College and 24% of students would enroll in a culinary program if offered. Student responses to qualitative answers are varied and are not included here. Research was also conducted with MI-JTED to determine what additional needs existed in the Quad City Area Culinary Program offered at the high school level. This identified the need for college 10
credit and basic industry certifications like ServSafe. Retail small business workforce needs associated with the tourism economy in Yavapai County were addressed through an industry roundtable and inquiry in conjunction with the YC Small Business Development Center. Retail customer service skills addressing various target markets and management skills are in demand. Entrepreneurial skills are in high demand, topics include business planning, access to capital resources and financing, website design, social media marketing, and expansion. Agriculture Although the agricultural industry in Yavapai County does not comprise a large proportion of jobs regionally, farming, fishing, and forestry occupations experienced some of the largest growth over the past 5 years at 13%. The Yavapai College Regional Economic Development Center performed a 21 question Producer survey to determine the skill needs in the agricultural sector. Producers articulated that education in specific arenas is needed. Top responses included enhanced knowledge of specialty crops, understanding how to price in a wholesale versus retail market, and understanding how to obtain contracts. 100% of respondents noted that training in how to obtain federal, state, and local certifications is needed. These responses signify a demand for technical training and entrepreneurial education in the field. The center additionally verified these results through a series of monthly meetings with a farmer-led Food Council in the Quad City Area and several independent interviews with farmers. Healthcare Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations, healthcare support, and personal care service all experienced substantial growth over the past five years at 3%, 8%, and 6% respectively. Yavapai Regional Medical Center is the largest employer in this field in the Quad City Area with approximately 1200 employees. The Regional Economic Development Center is currently conducting an industry and labor analysis for the sector that will be available in fall 2015. Appendix A Parameters 11
Code Description 86301 Prescott, AZ (in Yavapai county) 86302 Prescott, AZ (in Yavapai county) 86303 Prescott, AZ (in Yavapai county) 86304 Prescott, AZ (in Yavapai county) 86305 Prescott, AZ (in Yavapai county) 86312 Prescott Valley, AZ (in Yavapai county) 86313 Prescott, AZ (in Yavapai county) 86314 Prescott Valley, AZ (in Yavapai county) 86315 Prescott Valley, AZ (in Yavapai county) 86323 Chino Valley, AZ (in Yavapai county) 86327 Dewey, AZ (in Yavapai county) 86329 Humboldt, AZ (in Yavapai county) Appendix B Sources Demographic Data The demographic data in this report is compiled from several sources using a specialized process. Sources include annual population estimates and population projections from the US Census Bureau, birth and mortality rates from the US Health Department, and projected regional job 12
growth. EMSI, Economic Modeling Inc. Industry Data (1) For QCEW Employees, EMSI primarily uses the QCEW (Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages), with supplemental estimates from County Business Patterns and Current Employment Statistics. (2) Non-QCEW employees data are based on a number of sources including QCEW, Current Employment Statistics, County Business Patterns, BEA State and Local Personal Income reports, the National Industry-Occupation Employment Matrix (NIOEM), the American Community Survey, and Railroad Retirement Board statistics. (3) Self-Employed and Extended Proprietor classes of worker data are primarily based on the American Community Survey, Nonemployer Statistics, and BEA State and Local Personal Income Reports. Projections for QCEW and Non-QCEW Employees are informed by NIOEM and long-term industry projections published by individual states. U.D. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Arizona Department of Administration. EMSI, Economic Modeling Inc. State Data Sources This report uses state data from the following agencies: Arizona Department of Administration, Office of Employment and Population Statistics. EMSI, Economic Modeling Inc. Occupation Data Wage estimates are based on Occupational Employment Statistics (QCEW and Non-QCEW Employees classes of worker) and the American Community Survey (Self-Employed and Extended Proprietors). Occupational wage estimates also affected by county-level EMSI earnings by industry. EMSI, Economic Modeling Inc. EMSI occupation employment data are based on final EMSI industry data and final EMSI staffing patterns. Equifax Business-Level Data Data for individual businesses is provided by Equifax (http://www.equifax.com/commercial/), which maintains a database of more than 20 million U.S. business entities. Note that in aggregate it will not be consistent with EMSI labor market data due to differences in definitions, methodology, coverage, and industry/geographic classification. 13