Competitive Analysis Economic Vision for the City of Burlington

Transcription

1 Competitive Analysis Economic Vision for the City of Burlington Burlington Economic Development Corporation DRAFT 1 Millier Dickinson Blais

2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This report has been supported by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs by providing access to the EMSI Analyst tool. Nevertheless, the views expressed in this report are the views of Millier Dickinson Blais Inc. and do not necessarily reflect those of the Ministry. 2 Millier Dickinson Blais

3 Contents 1 COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE POPULATION POPULATION BY AGE EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT HOUSEHOLD INCOME DWELLING VALUES OWNERSHIP CHARACTERISTICS PRIMARY RENTAL MARKET EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS OCCUPATIONAL PROFILE LABOUR FORCE CHARACTERISTICS BUSINESS PROFILE BUSINESS PATTERNS ASSESSMENT DEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION COSTS PROTOTYPE BUILD SCENARIOS SITE PLAN FEES DEVELOPMENT CHARGES BUILDING PERMIT FEES MUNICIPAL TAX RATES LAND VALUES QUALITY OF LIFE REAL ESTATE AND WEALTH CRIME HEALTH 63 3 Millier Dickinson Blais

4 1 Competitive Analysis The Competitive Analysis highlights the City of Burlington s relative competitiveness in a number of demographic, occupational, and business areas compared to a selected group of comparator jurisdictions. The analysis is meant to be used as a benchmark to understand what competitive advantages or disadvantages the City of Burlington may have relative to competitor communities around it. 1 The comparator jurisdictions used in the analysis are: The Town of Oakville The City of Mississauga The City of Hamilton The City of Markham The Region of Waterloo 1.1 Highlights from the Competitive Analysis Burlington has a number of competitive advantages and disadvantages when measured against the comparator jurisdictions. These competitive advantages offer opportunities for Burlington to further position itself to attract and retain industry and labour force talent to the city, whereas the competitive disadvantages highlight areas that Burlington may want to explore further in order to compete more effectively with the comparator jurisdictions. Based on key findings from the Competitive Analysis, it is clear that knowledge intensive and value-added employment constitutes an important part of Burlington s economy and competitive advantages relative to the comparator jurisdictions (based on demographic, industry, and business trends). Continued focus on these sectors will further support Burlington s competitive advantages and the employment and business growth that Burlington is well positioned to experience based on these advantages. 1 Each of the comparator jurisdictions were selected for inclusion in the Competitive Analysis by the Burlington Economic Development Corporation 4 Millier Dickinson Blais

5 Competitive Advantages in Burlington Burlington has a relatively well-educated population which presents competitive advantages in the attraction of industry looking for a more educated workforce. Burlington is a relatively affordable place to buy a home, offering opportunities when attracting or retaining young professionals to the area that would be looking to buy a home (the dwelling values in Burlington, however, are significantly higher than those in Hamilton and the Region of Waterloo, indicating a competitive disadvantage when competing against these jurisdictions). The level of household wealth in Burlington ranks among the top relative to comparator jurisdictions, with one of the fastest levels of income growth between comparator jurisdictions. There is a relatively high rate of home ownership in Burlington relative to comparator jurisdictions, which is helpful in attracting families to the area. Burlington had the lowest unemployment rate in 2011 among comparator jurisdictions, and among the lowest relative increase in unemployment rate during the same period. These statistics highlight the relative stability of the workforce in Burlington. According to EMSI Analyst projections, there is a high rate of job growth anticipated from in Burlington relative to comparator jurisdictions, which offers an important competitive advantage in attracting more population and talent to the area. Employment in industries in Burlington are growing more quickly than comparator jurisdictions in: 72 - Accommodation and food services (11% increase, 7,692 people employed in 2014) 54 - Professional, scientific and technical services (8% increase, 5,848 people employed in 2014) 61 - Educational services (8% increase, 5,332 people employed in 2014) 23 - Construction (7% increase, 5,071 people employed in 2014) Employment in occupations in Burlington are growing more quickly than comparator jurisdictions in: E - Occupations in social science, education, government service and religion (15% increase, 6,987 people in 2014) F - Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport (12% increase, 1,908 people in 2014) I - Occupations unique to primary industry (10% increase, 880 people in 2014) H - Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations (7% increase, 13,280 people in 2014) 5 Millier Dickinson Blais

6 Burlington saw the largest increases among comparator jurisdictions in number of business establishments between 2009 and 2013 in: 11 - Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting (98% increase, 81 business establishments in 2013) 51 - Information and cultural industries (42% increase, 254 business establishments in 2013) 71 - Arts, entertainment and recreation (32% increase, 241 business establishments in 2013) 56 - Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services (29% increase, 736 business establishments in 2013) 23 - Construction (21% increase, 1,385 business establishments in 2013) Manufacturing (4% increase, 597 business establishments in 2013) Burlington has a number of competitive advantages in development charges relative to comparator jurisdictions, including site plan fees, development charges for office and industrial development, and industrial building permit fees that make the city an attractive place for office and industrial development. Overall, these findings highlight Burlington s competitive advantage in attracting industrial and office developments when competing with communities to its east (i.e. Oakville, Mississauga, and Markham). Burlington has a competitive advantage in municipal tax rates when competing with Hamilton and the communities that make up the Region of Waterloo across all tax categories. Based on a variety of quality of life rankings used by MoneySense magazine in 2014, Burlington ranks as the fifth best place to live in Canada (above all other comparator jurisdictions used in this Competitive Analysis). In particular, Burlington ranks very well along a variety of criteria related to health, crime, and real estate and wealth relative to comparator jurisdictions. Burlington s price of land per acre for industrial properties offers a significant competitive advantage relative to Markham and Mississauga (and to a smaller degree Oakville). In addition, the average net rent per square foot for Class A office space in Burlington ranks on the less costly end compared to Oakville, Mississauga, and Hamilton. Competitive Disadvantages in Burlington Burlington is facing some significant competitive disadvantages related to age distribution in the local population relative to comparator jurisdictions, particularly with smaller youth cohorts (i.e. aged 24 years old and below) needed to transition into the prime working age population category over the next ten years. This gap in the youth population 6 Millier Dickinson Blais

7 may result in future labour shortages in Burlington that may dissuade industry from locating in Burlington. 2 In addition, Burlington is already in a position where they have a relatively lower proportion of the population in the working age (i.e years old), indicating that labour shortages may already be a factor in the community. Average and median rents for apartments in Burlington increased by the largest amounts relative to all comparator jurisdictions between 2013 and This presents a competitive disadvantage in Burlington as people may find the increased cost of living less appealing or more difficult to manage than other jurisdictions. This in turn could contribute to outmigration of target demographics. Average earnings by industry and average hourly earnings by occupation are both low relative to comparator jurisdictions presenting a competitive disadvantage for Burlington in attracting more skilled talent to the city (though earnings for specific industries may not follow this overall trend in the same manner). Burlington has some competitive disadvantages in development charges relative to comparator jurisdictions, including site development charges for retail development and building permit fees for office developments. Overall, these findings highlight Burlington s competitive disadvantages in attracting industrial and office developments when competing with communities to its west (i.e. Hamilton, Waterloo, Kitchener, and Cambridge). Burlington has a competitive disadvantage in municipal tax rates when competing with Markham across all tax categories, Oakville across all tax categories (though they are close in the tax rates so Burlington is well-positioned to compete with Oakville), and Mississauga when competing across most tax categories. Burlington s price of land per acre for industrial properties offers a significant competitive disadvantage relative to Hamilton, Waterloo, Kitchener, and Cambridge. In addition, the average net rent per square foot for Class A office space in Burlington is more expensive compared to Markham, Waterloo, Kitchener, and Cambridge. 2 It is important to note that projections from Hemson Consulting for the Government of Ontario on growth forecasts for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (included in the Economic Base Analysis) show that the youth population for Halton Region will actually be increasing to This increasing youth population may help solve Burlington s issue with a small youth cohort, though it remains to be seen how that increase in youth will be distributed throughout Halton Region. 7 Millier Dickinson Blais

8 1.2 Demographic Profile Population The City of Burlington saw a 17% growth in its population between 2001 and 2011 (see Figure 1). This growth rate represents a moderate level of growth compared with the comparator jurisdictions. Both Mississauga and the Region of Waterloo experienced similar growth rates to Burlington during this time period (16% each), while Markham and Oakville each saw growth at much higher levels than in Burlington (45% and 26% respectively). Hamilton had the lowest population growth rate during this time period at 6%. Detailed population statistics can be found in Figure 2. Looking at the population growth statistics, it is clear that Burlington is growing at a rate relatively consistent with most of its comparator jurisdictions. Two exceptions to this are Oakville, which increased its population 9% more than Burlington during the same period, and Markham, which experienced significant population expansion that was 28% greater than Burlington s growth. 8 Millier Dickinson Blais

9 Population FIGURE 1: POPULATION GROWTH FOR BURLINGTON AND COMPARATOR JURISDICTIONS, ,000 16% 700, ,000 6% 16% 500, , ,000 17% 26% 45% 200, ,000 - Burlington Oakville Mississauga Hamilton Markham Region of Waterloo Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey, 2011 Census and 2006 Community Profiles Census FIGURE 2: POPULATION GROWTH DATA TABLE, BURLINGTON AND COMPARATOR JURISDICTIONS, Population Absolute Δ % Δ Absolute Δ % Δ Absolute Δ % Δ Burlington 150, , ,779 13,579 9% 11,364 7% 24,943 17% Oakville 144, , ,520 20,875 14% 16,907 10% 37,782 26% Mississauga 612, , ,443 55,674 9% 44,844 7% 100,518 16% Hamilton 490, , ,949 14,291 3% 15,390 3% 29,681 6% Markham 208, , ,709 52,958 25% 40,136 15% 93,094 45% Region of Waterloo 438, , ,096 39,606 9% 28,975 6% 68,581 16% Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey, 2011 Census and 2006 Community Profiles Census 9 Millier Dickinson Blais

10 1.2.2 Population by Age The median age of the population in Burlington in 2011 was 41.8 years old. 3 This age represents the oldest median age among all the comparator communities, with Hamilton at 40.9 years old, Oakville at 40.2 years old, Markham at 39.6 years old, Mississauga at 38.5 years old, and the Region of Waterloo at 37.7 years old. 4 This relatively older population in Burlington is further reflected in the age pyramids presented in Figure 3. Looking at the age pyramids, it can be seen that Burlington has a lower proportion of the population considered youth (i.e. aged 24 years old and below) relative to the comparator jurisdictions (29%). Other jurisdictions have youth population proportions of 30% in Hamilton, 31% in Markham, 32% in the Region of Waterloo, 33% in Mississauga, and 34% in Oakville. In terms of proportions of the population in the working age (i.e years old), Burlington is among the lower end of the jurisdictions with 48% of the population within this age range. Other communities proportions include Hamilton and Oakville (both at 48%), Markham and the Region of Waterloo (both at 50%), and Mississauga (51%). These population age distributions highlight the relative competitive disadvantages that Burlington has in relation to the comparator jurisdictions. A smaller youth population is a disadvantage in that there will be fewer youth transitioning into the working age population category over the next ten years compared to the comparator jurisdictions. This may result in labour shortages that may dissuade industry from locating in Burlington relative to neighbouring jurisdictions. In addition, Burlington is already in a position where it has a relatively lower proportion of the working age cohort in the local population, indicating that labour shortages may already be a factor in the community. It is interesting to note, however, that projections from Hemson Consulting for the Government of Ontario on growth forecasts for the Greater Golden Horseshoe show that the youth population for Halton Region (which includes Burlington) and Hamilton will actually be increasing to 2041, whereas these youth populations will be decreasing in the City of Toronto. 5 This increasing youth population may be reflective of anecdotal evidence that youth are moving from Toronto to outside jurisdictions due to overcrowding, increasing cost of living, and a lack of employment opportunities in Toronto. These projected changes in the age distributions of Halton Region and Hamilton may help solve Burlington s issues with a small youth cohort, though it remains to be seen how that increase in youth will be distributed throughout the communities of Halton Region. 3 Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE. 4 ibid 5 Hemson Consulting for the Government of Ontario, Greater Golden Horseshoe Growth Forecasts to 2041: Technical Report (November 2012) Addendum, June Millier Dickinson Blais

11 FIGURE 3: POPULATION PYRAMIDS FOR BURLINGTON AND COMPARATOR JURISDICTIONS, Millier Dickinson Blais

12 Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE. Adapted by Millier Dickinson Blais Inc Educational Attainment As seen in Figure 4, Burlington has a relatively well educated proportion of the year old (i.e. working age) population with roughly 66% of people in that age category having a university certificate, diploma, or degree at a bachelor level or above, a university certificate or diploma below a bachelor level, or a college, CEGEP, or other nonuniversity certificate or diploma. This rate is in the middle range relative to the comparator jurisdictions, with Oakville at 74%, Mississauga and Markham both at 65%, the Region of Waterloo at 54%, and Hamilton at 52%. This relatively well-educated population presents competitive advantages for Burlington in the attraction of industry looking for more educated workforces. More information on absolute values for each category of educational attainment is available in Figure 5 below. 12 Millier Dickinson Blais

13 8% 5% 22% 6% 27% 5% 34% 4% 17% 4% 22% 6% 13% 9% 10% 21% 4% 17% 8% 12% 8% 21% 6% 20% 7% 25% 26% 4% 22% 26% 24% 3% 26% 37% 40% 46% FIGURE 4: TOTAL POPULATION AGED YEARS BY HIGHEST CERTIFICATE, DIPLOMA OR DEGREE, BURLINGTON AND COMPARATOR JURISDICTIONS, % 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Burlington Oakville Mississauga Hamilton Markham Region of Waterloo No certificate; diploma or degree Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma University certificate or diploma below bachelor level High school diploma or equivalent College; CEGEP or other non-university certificate or diploma University certificate; diploma or degree at bachelor level or above Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE FIGURE 5: TOTAL POPULATION AGED YEARS BY HIGHEST CERTIFICATE DATA TABLE, DIPLOMA OR DEGREE, BURLINGTON AND COMPARATOR JURISDICTIONS, 2011 Burlington Oakville Mississauga Hamilton Markham Region of Waterloo No certificate; diploma or degree 4,995 4,310 33,070 36,165 16,945 34,120 High school diploma or equivalent 21,215 16,580 83,820 70,150 34,915 71,150 Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma 5,565 4,230 23,835 26,050 7,475 22,745 College; CEGEP or other non-university certificate or diploma University certificate or diploma below bachelor level University certificate; diploma or degree at bachelor level or above 25,630 21,390 80,945 72,205 29,255 66,390 4,640 5,945 29,650 10,800 12,775 9,395 32,495 44, ,260 62,145 68,730 73,100 Total 94,535 97, , , , ,905 Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE 13 Millier Dickinson Blais

14 1.2.4 Household Income The median household income in Burlington in 2010 was $82,494, representing an increase of 10% since 2005 (as seen in Figure 6). This level of household wealth is among the top three relative to comparator jurisdictions. Burlington s household income growth of 10% also represents one of the fastest growing levels of wealth between comparator jurisdictions from 2005 to 2010, with Oakville household wealth growing by 10.1%, Hamilton wealth growing by 8.9%, the Region of Waterloo wealth growing by 8.0%, Markham wealth growing by 7.6%, and Mississauga wealth growing by 5.8%. FIGURE 6: MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME OF PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS, BURLINGTON AND COMPARATOR JURISDICTIONS Region of Waterloo $69,706 $64,522 Markham $86,022 $79,924 Hamilton $60,259 $55,312 Mississauga $75,556 $71,393 Oakville Burlington $101,713 $92,394 $82,494 $74,969 $- $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100, Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE, and 2006 Community Profiles, 2006 Census, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE 14 Millier Dickinson Blais

15 FIGURE 7: AVERAGE VALUE OF OWNED DWELLINGS, BURLINGTON AND COMPARATOR JURISDICTIONS Dwelling Values The average value of owned dwellings in Burlington in 2011 was $431,943, a growth of 24.1% from 2006 (as seen in Figure 7). Region of Waterloo $321,336 $264,604 This value is significantly below dwelling values in Oakville and Markham ($598,576 and $547,560 respectively), but significantly above dwelling values in Hamilton and the Region of Waterloo ($308,307 and $321,336 respectively). The levels of growth for dwelling values among all comparator jurisdictions are comparable, with Oakville leading at 26.8%, Markham at 24.2%, Burlington at 24.1%, Hamilton at 22.2%, the Region of Waterloo at 21.4%, and Mississauga at 20.9% from 2006 to 2011 (as seen in Figure 8). Markham Hamilton Mississauga $440,755 $308,307 $252,248 $455,942 $377,116 $547,560 Taken together, these statistics highlight the relative affordability in buying a dwelling in Burlington compared to other comparator jurisdictions. This relative affordability is a competitive advantage for Burlington when trying to attract or retain young professionals to the area that would be looking to buy a home. The dwelling values in Burlington, however, are significantly higher than those in Hamilton and the Region of Waterloo, indicating a competitive disadvantage when competing against these jurisdictions. Oakville Burlington $348,041 $472,244 $431,943 Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE, and 2006 Community Profiles, 2006 Census, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE Note: Value of dwelling - Refers to the dollar amount expected by the owner if the dwelling were to be sold. $598,576 $- $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600, Millier Dickinson Blais

16 FIGURE 8: AVERAGE VALUE OF OWNED DWELLINGS DATA TABLE, BURLINGTON AND COMPARATOR JURISDICTIONS % change Burlington $ 348,041 $ 431, % Oakville $ 472,244 $ 598, % Mississauga $ 377,116 $ 455, % Hamilton $ 252,248 $ 308, % Markham $ 440,755 $ 547, % Region of Waterloo $ 264,604 $ 321, % Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE, and 2006 Community Profiles, 2006 Census, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE In terms of the house price to income ratio 6, Burlington ranked relatively well in 2011 with a ratio of 5.24, above the Region of Waterloo at 4.61 and Hamilton at 5.12, but below Markham at 6.37, Mississauga at 6.03, and Oakville at These ratios in Burlington, the Region of Waterloo, and Hamilton each grew roughly 12% from 2006 levels whereas the ratios for Markham, Mississauga, and Oakville grew by roughly 15% during the same time period. These statistics highlight competitive advantages for Burlington in housing affordability relative to other comparator jurisdictions and indicate that changes in housing affordability are not as unfavourable in Burlington as other jurisdictions Ownership Characteristics Roughly 78% of private households in Burlington own their residence, with an additional 22% renting (see Figure 9). This rate of ownership in Burlington is among the highest relative to comparator jurisdictions, with Markham s rate of ownership at 89%, Oakville at 84%, Mississauga at 75%, the Region of Waterloo at 71%, and Hamilton at 68%. This relatively high rate of ownership in Burlington is another indicator of the relative wealth that is found in Burlington. More detailed information on absolute values for rates of ownership and rental for each comparator jurisdiction can be found in Figure 10 below. 6 Calculated by dividing the average value of owned dwellings by the median household income of private households 16 Millier Dickinson Blais

17 FIGURE 9: TOTAL PERCENTAGE OF PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS BY TENURE, BURLINGTON AND COMPARATOR JURISDICTIONS, % 80% 78% 84% 75% 68% 89% 71% 60% 40% 20% 22% 16% 25% 32% 11% 29% 0% Burlington Oakville Mississauga Hamilton Markham Region of Waterloo Owner Renter Source: Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE FIGURE 10: DATA TABLE TOTAL PERCENTAGE OF PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS BY TENURE, BURLINGTON AND COMPARATOR JURISDICTIONS, 2011 Burlington Oakville Mississauga Hamilton Markham Region of Waterloo Owner 53,965 52, , ,345 80, ,270 Renter 14,810 10,095 58,875 64,460 9,855 55,325 Total 68,780 62, , ,805 90, ,600 Source: Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE 17 Millier Dickinson Blais

18 1.2.7 Primary Rental Market As seen in Figure 11, the vacancy rate in Burlington for rental apartments decreased from 1.9% in October 2013 to 1.5% in October This decrease also coincided with a decrease in the availability rate for rental apartments in Burlington (3.1% to 2.9%) and an increase in the average and median rents for two bedroom apartments. Similar trends were seen in Hamilton and Mississauga. Vacancy and availability rates in Oakville and Markham increased from 2013 to In the case of Oakville, average and median costs of rent also increased, whereas in Markham these changes were less pronounced. It is interesting to note that average and median rents in Burlington increased by among the largest amounts between 2013 and 2014 relative to all comparator jurisdictions (increasing by $51 and $39 respectively). This is compared to Mississauga ($39 and $60 respectively), Oakville ($36 and $24 respectively), Hamilton ($21 and $26 respectively), and Markham ($8 and $15 respectively). These larger increases present a competitive disadvantage in Burlington as people will find the cost of living relatively more expensive, and potentially prohibitive for key demographics being targeted for attraction to the area (e.g., young professionals and families, and newcomers). FIGURE 11: PRIMARY RENTAL MARKET DATA TABLE, BURLINGTON AND COMPARATOR JURISDICTIONS Oct-14 Burlington Oakville Hamilton Markham Mississauga Burlington Oakville Hamilton Markham Mississauga Vacancy Rate (%) - Apt Availability Rate (%) - Apt Average Rent ($) - 2- Bed Apt Median Rent ($) - 2-Bed Apt Oct $1,199 $1,317 $887 $1,191 $1,211 $1,148 $1,281 $866 $1,183 $1,172 $1,169 $1,295 $875 $1,185 $1,200 $1,130 $1,271 $849 $1,200 $1,140 Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), Housing Market Information Portal 18 Millier Dickinson Blais

19 1.2.8 Employment Statistics FIGURE 12: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, BURLINGTON AND COMPARATOR JURISDICTIONS Burlington had the lowest unemployment rate in 2011 at 5.8% relative to all other comparator jurisdictions (as seen in Figure 12). Region of Waterloo 5.5% 7.0% Unemployment rates in comparator jurisdictions were Oakville and the Region of Waterloo both at 7.0%, Markham at 8.1%, and Mississauga and Hamilton both at 8.7%. The rate of increase in the unemployment rate in Burlington between 2006 and 2011 was also the lowest among all comparator jurisdictions at 1.2%. This is compared with Markham at 1.4%, the Region of Waterloo at 1.5%, Oakville at 1.7%, and Mississauga and Hamilton both at 2.2%. These statistics highlight the relative stability in the workforce in Burlington. More details about the absolute values for the broad range of employment statistics (including unemployment rates) can be seen in Figure 13 below. Markham 8.1% 6.7% Hamilton 8.7% 6.5% Mississauga 8.7% 6.5% Oakville 7.0% 5.3% Burlington 5.8% 4.6% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE, and 2006 Community Profiles, 2006 Census, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE 19 Millier Dickinson Blais

20 FIGURE 13: DATA TABLE EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS, BURLINGTON AND COMPARATOR JURISDICTIONS In the labour force Employed Unemployed Not in the labour force Participation rate Employment rate Unemployment rate Burlington Oakville Mississauga Hamilton Markham Region of Waterloo Burlington Oakville Mississauga Hamilton Markham 92,590 92, , , , ,530 98, , , , ,225 88,280 87, , , , ,655 93,030 93, , , ,315 4,305 4,895 24,670 17,255 9,640 14,875 5,755 7,075 34,490 23,120 12,910 40,110 37, , ,995 68, ,455 44,725 43, , ,855 87, % 70.9% 70.8% 64.7% 67.9% 71.5% 68.8% 69.6% 68.2% 62.8% 64.7% 66.5% 67.1% 66.2% 60.4% 63.4% 67.6% 64.8% 64.7% 62.3% 57.3% 59.5% 4.6% 5.3% 6.5% 6.5% 6.7% 5.5% 5.8% 7.0% 8.7% 8.7% 8.1% Region of Waterloo 283, ,815 19, , % 64.9% 7.0% Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE, and 2006 Community Profiles, 2006 Census, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE 20 Millier Dickinson Blais

21 1.3 Occupational Profile Labour Force Characteristics Job Growth 7 Job growth in Burlington between 2011 and 2020 is expected to increase by 10.3% (or 9,010 jobs). This rate of job growth is among the highest relative to comparator jurisdictions, with job growth projections of 10.9% in Oakville, 9.7% in Mississauga, 8.2% in the Region of Waterloo, 7.1% in Markham, and 6.8% in Hamilton (as seen in Figure 14). This high rate of job growth in Burlington is an important competitive advantage for the city in attracting more population and talent to the area. More detailed information about absolute job growth projections for each comparator jurisdiction can be found in Figure 15). 7 Based on projections by EMSI Analyst which may not be completely in line with regional growth projections from other sources or other policies. EMSI s methodology in creating these projections is to create three linear regressions based off of [EMSI s] historic employee counts for each geography (8, 5 and 3 year linear regressions). The average of these linear regressions is taken, and the result dampened to curb excessive growth and decline. All trends are then adjusted to higher level geography trends (CSD is adjusted to CD, CD to Province, Province to Nation). This trend is considered [EMSI s] base projection. After [EMSI] create[s] the base projection, [they] adjust [their] annual growth rate by industry to the projections produced by COPS. This completes [the] industry employee count process, creating CSD-level data Millier Dickinson Blais

22 FIGURE 14: PROJECTED JOB GROWTH, BURLINGTON AND COMPARATOR JURISDICTIONS, % 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Burlington Oakville Mississauga Hamilton Markham Region of Waterloo Source: EMSI Analyst, adapted by Millier Dickinson Blais 22 Millier Dickinson Blais

23 FIGURE 15: PROJECTED JOB GROWTH DATA TABLE, BURLINGTON AND COMPARATOR JURISDICTIONS, Year Burlington Oakville Mississauga Hamilton Markham Region of Waterloo ,574 82, , , , , ,339 84, , , , , ,356 85, , , , , ,799 85, , , , , ,066 86, , , , , ,152 87, , , , , ,192 88, , , , , ,087 89, , , , , ,840 90, , , , , ,584 91, , , , ,779 Source: EMSI Analyst, adapted by Millier Dickinson Blais Regional Labour Force by Industry Figure 16, Figure 17, and Figure 18 below highlight that the greatest levels of estimated employment growth in Burlington between 2011 and 2014 relative to the comparator jurisdictions were 72 - Accommodation and food services (11% increase, 7,692 people employed in 2014) 54 - Professional, scientific and technical services (8% increase, 5,848 people employed in 2014) 61 - Educational services (8% increase, 5,332 people employed in 2014) 23 - Construction (7% increase, 5,071 people employed in 2014) 56 - Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services (5% increase, 4,984 people employed in 2014) In terms of declining employment in industries relative to comparator jurisdictions, Burlington was among those jurisdictions seeing the largest decreases in: 21 - Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (19% decrease, 82 people employed in 2014) 55 - Management of companies and enterprises (5% decrease, 1,279 people employed in 2014) 91 - Public administration (3% decrease, 2,899 people employed in 2014) 23 Millier Dickinson Blais

24 FIGURE 16: CHANGE IN # OF JOBS BY NAICS INDUSTRY, BURLINGTON AND COMPARATOR JURISDICTIONS, % 10% 0% (10%) (20%) (30%) (40%) Burlington Oakville Mississauga Hamilton Markham Region of Waterloo Source: Employees - EMSI , adapted by Millier Dickinson Blais NAIC Categories: 11-Agriculture; forestry; fishing and hunting, 21-Mining; quarrying; and oil and gas extraction, 22-Utilities, 23-Construction, Manufacturing, 41-Wholesale trade, Retail trade, Transportation and warehousing, 51-Information and cultural industries, 52-Finance and insurance, 53-Real estate and rental and leasing, 54-Professional; scientific and technical services, 55-Management of companies and enterprises, 56- Administrative and support; waste management and remediation services, 61-Educational services, 62-Health care and social assistance, 71-Arts; entertainment and recreation, 72-Accommodation and food services, 81-Other services (except public administration), 91-Public administration 24 Millier Dickinson Blais

25 FIGURE 17: CHANGE IN # OF JOBS BY NAICS INDUSTRY DATA TABLE, BURLINGTON AND COMPARATOR JURISDICTIONS, NAICS Industry Category % Change ( ) Burlington Oakville Mississauga Hamilton Markham Region of Waterloo 11 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting -2% -12% -8% 0% -4% 1% 21 Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction -19% -25% -12% -18% -16% -9% 22 Utilities -4% -5% -6% -8% -8% -12% 23 Construction 7% 5% 7% 6% 4% 6% Manufacturing 0% 1% 0% -3% -5% -2% 41 Wholesale trade 2% 1% 0% 2% -4% 4% Retail trade 5% 6% 5% 3% 3% 6% Transportation and warehousing 4% 5% 7% 3% 6% 7% 51 Information and cultural industries 8% 14% 11% 1% 9% 11% 52 Finance and insurance 1% 4% 4% 3% 1% 6% 53 Real estate and rental and leasing 2% 2% 5% 5% 6% 4% 54 Professional, scientific and technical services 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 7% 55 Management of companies and enterprises -5% 0% -2% 2% 1% -35% 56 Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services 5% 3% 4% 4% 1% 5% 61 Educational services 6% 7% 5% 5% 8% 5% 62 Health care and social assistance 5% 5% 6% 3% 5% 4% 71 Arts, entertainment and recreation 3% 4% 2% -1% -1% 2% 72 Accommodation and food services 11% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 81 Other services (except public administration) 2% 4% 4% 2% 2% 1% 91 Public administration -3% 1% -2% -1% 0% -2% Unclassified -18% -17% -18% -18% -18% -18% Source: Employees - EMSI , adapted by Millier Dickinson Blais 25 Millier Dickinson Blais

26 FIGURE 18: # OF JOBS BY NAICS INDUSTRY, BURLINGTON AND COMPARATOR JURISDICTIONS, 2014 NAICS Industry Category Burlington Oakville Mississauga Hamilton Markham Region of Waterloo 11 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting , , Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction Utilities , Construction 5,071 4,455 18,085 11,931 5,602 14, Manufacturing 12,780 10,773 57,728 21,552 13,683 46, Wholesale trade 7,436 6,229 53,258 8,191 18,354 15, Retail trade 13,217 10,638 46,433 24,585 12,400 31, Transportation and warehousing 2,791 2,734 52,116 7,261 2,810 9, Information and cultural industries 2,335 1,630 11,495 2,884 4,031 5, Finance and insurance 3,922 3,963 24,409 6,284 9,685 15, Real estate and rental and leasing 1,245 1,489 9,283 3,908 2,829 3, Professional, scientific and technical services 5,848 6,129 32,628 6,971 18,576 13, Management of companies and enterprises 1,279 1,116 3, , Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services 4,984 4,682 36,541 10,541 11,037 12, Educational services 5,332 6,496 20,585 23,650 7,841 23, Health care and social assistance 7,400 7,662 27,350 33,182 7,560 23, Arts, entertainment and recreation 1,230 1,222 2,559 2,724 1,372 2, Accommodation and food services 7,692 6,448 24,581 14,244 7,619 16, Other services (except public administration) 3,257 3,765 13,856 9,558 5,025 8, Public administration 2,899 4,269 13,089 12,286 2,660 9,932 Unclassified 1,394 1,323 6,919 3,220 2,128 4,105 Source: Employees - EMSI , adapted by Millier Dickinson Blais Total 90,799 85, , , , , Millier Dickinson Blais

27 Average Earnings by Industry In terms of the average earnings from employment, Burlington ranks in the bottom half relative to comparator jurisdictions with average earnings at $47,586 (as seen in Figure 19). This is above the earnings in both: Hamilton ($43,455) and, Region of Waterloo ($47,251), However it is below those in: FIGURE 19: AVERAGE EARNINGS, BURLINGTON AND COMPARATOR JURISDICTIONS, 2014 $54,000 $51,774 $52,000 $50,807 $50,000 $49,035 $47,586 $48,000 $47,251 Oakville ($49,035), Mississauga ($50,807), and Markham ($51,774). It should be noted, however, that these lower average earnings are likely attributable to the prominence of certain lower wage sectors in Burlington (such as retail) rather than a general trend of overall lower wages in Burlington. As a result, the effects of these lower wages in terms of competitive advantages or disadvantages will be mixed for Burlington depending on the specific industries being discussed. $46,000 $44,000 $42,000 $40,000 $38,000 Source: Employees - EMSI , adapted by Millier Dickinson Blais $43,455 Burlington Oakville Mississauga Hamilton Markham Region of Waterloo 27 Millier Dickinson Blais

28 Labour Force by Occupation Burlington saw the largest increases among comparator jurisdictions in employment by occupation between 2011 and 2014 in (as seen in Figure 20, Figure 21, and Figure 22): E - Occupations in social science, education, government service and religion (15% increase, 6,987 people in 2014) F - Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport (12% increase, 1,908 people in 2014) I - Occupations unique to primary industry (10% increase, 880 people in 2014) 8 H - Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations (7% increase, 13,280 people in 2014) Burlington was also among the top jurisdictions that saw growth in: J - Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities (3% increase, 7,300 people in 2014) D - Health occupations (5% increase, 4,261 people employed in 2014) In terms of declining employment in occupations, Burlington was among those jurisdictions seeing the largest decreases in: C - Natural and applied sciences and related occupations (2% decrease, 6,471 people in 2014) 8 It is interesting to note that all other jurisdictions except for Hamilton saw large decreases in employment for these occupations. 28 Millier Dickinson Blais

29 FIGURE 20: CHANGE IN # OF JOBS BY OCCUPATION (NOC-S), BURLINGTON AND COMPARATOR JURISDICTIONS, % 15% 10% 5% 0% A B C D E F G H I J (5%) (10%) (15%) (20%) (25%) Burlington Oakville Mississauga Hamilton Markham Region of Waterloo Source: Employees - EMSI , adapted by Millier Dickinson Blais NOC-S Categories: A - Management occupations, B - Business, finance and administrative occupations, C - Natural and applied sciences and related occupations, D - Health occupations, E - Occupations in social science, education, government service and religion, F - Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport, G - Sales and service occupations, H - Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations, I - Occupations unique to primary industry, J - Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities 29 Millier Dickinson Blais

30 FIGURE 21: CHANGE IN # OF JOBS BY OCCUPATION (NOC-S) DATA TABLE, BURLINGTON AND COMPARATOR JURISDICTIONS, Occupational Category % Change Burlington Oakville Mississauga Hamilton Markham Region of Waterloo A Management occupations 0% -4% -3% -1% -4% -4% B Business, finance and administrative occupations C Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 1% 4% 3% -2% 1% 4% -2% 2% 1% -5% -2% 7% D Health occupations 5% -2% -1% 5% -2% 16% E Occupations in social science, education, government service and religion 15% 9% 9% 14% 9% 8% F Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 12% 3% 0% 0% -2% 6% G Sales and service occupations 4% 8% 9% 3% 6% 2% H Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 7% 5% 6% 4% 4% 3% I Occupations unique to primary industry 10% -18% -21% 6% -21% -6% J Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities 3% 8% 2% 2% 2% -1% Unclassified -18% -17% -18% -18% -18% -18% Source: Employees - EMSI , adapted by Millier Dickinson Blais 30 Millier Dickinson Blais

31 FIGURE 22: # OF JOBS BY OCCUPATION (NOC-S), BURLINGTON AND COMPARATOR JURISDICTIONS, 2014 Occupational Category Burlington Oakville Mississauga Hamilton Markham Region of Waterloo A Management occupations 7,005 6,503 37,880 12,912 11,895 17,332 B Business, finance and administrative occupations C Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 16,132 16, ,174 36,006 31,367 47,242 6,471 7,345 46,126 10,380 18,913 22,595 D Health occupations 4,261 4,328 15,966 18,695 4,482 14,363 E Occupations in social science, education, government service and religion 6,987 8,504 32,381 24,237 11,205 24,298 F Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 1,908 2,578 9,392 4,405 3,664 5,190 G Sales and service occupations 25,180 22, ,419 51,569 31,107 62,111 H Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 13,280 9,843 57,655 29,742 12,531 37,311 I Occupations unique to primary industry ,646 3, ,056 J Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities 7,300 5,728 31,855 12,454 7,702 23,025 Unclassified 1,394 1,323 6,919 3,220 2,128 4,105 Source: Employees - EMSI , adapted by Millier Dickinson Blais Total 90,799 85, , , , , Millier Dickinson Blais

32 Average Earnings by Occupation In terms of the average hourly earnings from employment in each occupation, Burlington ranks last relative to comparator jurisdictions with average hourly earnings at $23.67 (as seen in Figure 23). This is below the hourly earnings of each of the Region of Waterloo ($24.00), Hamilton ($24.05), Oakville ($24.20), Mississauga ($24.46), and Markham ($25.50). FIGURE 23: AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS, BURLINGTON AND COMPARATOR JURISDICTIONS, 2014 $26.00 $25.50 $25.50 $25.00 These lower average hourly earnings present a potential competitive disadvantage for Burlington in attracting more skilled talent to the city (though it should be noted again that these lower earnings are likely due to the prominence of certain low wage occupations in Burlington and not necessarily reflective of competitive advantages or disadvantages in specific occupations). $24.50 $24.00 $23.50 $23.67 $24.20 $24.46 $24.05 $24.00 As seen in Figure 24, however, Burlington ranks among the higher average hourly earnings relative to comparator jurisdictions for E - occupations in social science, education, government service and religion ($32.68), G - sales and service occupations ($16.97), and J - occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities ($22.11). $23.00 $22.50 Burlington Oakville Mississauga Hamilton Markham Region of Waterloo Source: Employees - EMSI , adapted by Millier Dickinson Blais Burlington ranks low relative to comparator jurisdictions in A - management occupations ($39.62), B - business, finance and administrative occupations ($23.19), C - natural and applied sciences and related occupations ($32.64), F - occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport ($22.27), and I - occupations unique to primary industry ($16.86). Hamilton, Mississauga, and Markham are the three most prevalent top average hourly earnings by occupation of all comparator jurisdictions. 32 Millier Dickinson Blais

33 FIGURE 24: AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS BY OCCUPATIONAL CATEGORY, BURLINGTON AND COMPARATOR JURISDICTIONS, 2014 Occupational Category Burlington Oakville Mississauga Hamilton Markham Region of Waterloo A - Management occupations $39.62 $40.78 $41.07 $39.42 $41.85 $40.27 B - Business, finance and administrative occupations $23.19 $23.77 $23.50 $22.77 $24.09 $23.35 C - Natural and applied sciences and related occupations $32.64 $34.48 $34.77 $32.37 $34.61 $33.49 D - Health occupations $28.00 $27.84 $28.12 $29.10 $27.89 $28.28 E - Occupations in social science, education, government service and religion $32.68 $31.91 $32.81 $32.84 $32.61 $31.93 F - Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport $22.27 $24.55 $25.95 $22.13 $25.79 $22.79 G - Sales and service occupations $16.97 $15.95 $17.02 $16.81 $16.93 $17.16 H - Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations $23.02 $23.24 $22.48 $23.48 $23.23 $22.93 I - Occupations unique to primary industry $16.86 $18.12 $18.29 $16.11 $17.84 $16.93 J - Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities Source: Employees - EMSI , adapted by Millier Dickinson Blais Note: represent the top hourly earnings for each occupational category $22.11 $20.22 $18.57 $22.66 $18.21 $20.48 Total $23.67 $24.20 $24.46 $24.05 $25.50 $ Millier Dickinson Blais

34 1.4 Business Profile Business Patterns Assessment Statistics Canada s Canadian Business Patterns Data provides a record of business establishments in Canada by industry and size. Collected by the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA), business data collected includes all local businesses that meet at least one of the three following criteria: Have an employee workforce for which they submit payroll remittances to CRA; or Have a minimum of $30,000 in annual sales revenue; or Are incorporated under a federal or provincial act and have filed a federal corporate income tax form within the past three years. The Canadian Business Patterns Data records business counts by Total, Indeterminate and Subtotal categories. The establishments in the Indeterminate category include the self-employed (i.e. those who do not maintain an employee payroll, but may have a workforce consisting of contracted workers, family members or business owners). It should be noted that the Canadian Business Patterns Data uses the CRA as a primary resource in establishment counts; therefore, businesses without a business number or indicating annual sales less than $30,000 are not included. The population of these small, unincorporated businesses is thought to be in the range of 600,000 in all of Canada. Business Patterns in Burlington and Comparator Jurisdictions 2009 to As seen in Figure 25 and Figure 26 below, Burlington saw the largest increases among comparator jurisdictions in number of business establishments between 2009 and 2013 in: 11 - Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting (98% increase, 81 business establishments in 2013) 51 - Information and cultural industries (42% increase, 254 business establishments in 2013) 71 - Arts, entertainment and recreation (32% increase, 241 business establishments in 2013) 9 It should be noted that due to the availability of statistical data through EMSI Analyst, Canadian Business Patterns data used throughout the Competitive Analysis is from June 2009, June 2013, and June This data is consistently used throughout the Competitive Analysis but does represent a slightly different period of data used than the Burlington Economic Vision Economic Base Analysis (which used December 2008, December 2013, and December 2014 data). Given the different data periods used, direct comparisons between business patterns values in the Competitive Analysis and the Economic Base Analysis should not be made, though general trends arising from the findings in both sections are still comparable given the short time period between data sets. 10 It should be noted that due to changes in Statistics Canada methodology, Canadian Business Patterns data from 2014 should not be compared with previous periods of data. In its place, 2013 data is used. 34 Millier Dickinson Blais

35 56 - Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services (29% increase, 736 business establishments in 2013) 23 - Construction (21% increase, 1,385 business establishments in 2013) Manufacturing (4% increase, 597 business establishments in 2013) Burlington was also among the top jurisdictions that saw growth in: 62 - Health care and social assistance (52% increase, 947 business establishments in 2013) 21 - Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (50% increase, 9 business establishments in 2013) 53 - Real estate and rental and leasing (37% increase, 1,465 business establishments in 2013) Transportation and warehousing (17% increase, 506 business establishments in 2013) 52 - Finance and insurance (12% increase, 975 business establishments in 2013) 61 - Educational services (5% increase, 177 business establishments in 2013) Burlington was among the bottom jurisdictions in: 22 - Utilities (11% increase, 10 business establishments in 2013) Retail trade (6% increase, 1,278 business establishments in 2013) 54 - Professional, scientific and technical services (10% increase, 2,653 business establishments in 2013) 72 - Accommodation and food services (6% increase, 478 business establishments in 2013) 91 - Public administration (25% decrease, 3 business establishments in 2013) 35 Millier Dickinson Blais