Chinese Nickel Industry

Transcription

1 Chinese Nickel Industry Wang Ye, BGRIMM April 2008, Lisbon Content Chinese nickel mining industry Chinese refined nickel production Chinese Ni pig iron production Chinese nickel consumption BGRIMM s work 1

2 Chinese nickel mining industry Chinese nickel mining industry Chinese nickel mining industry Chinese nickel proven reserve and resource by 2006 ktni Mine number Current proven reserves and resource Reserve Base reserve Resource Accumulated proven reserve and resource Base reserve Resource Data source: the Ministry of Land and Resource P.R.C 2

3 Chinese nickel mining industry Chinese nickel reserve/resource distribution Data source: the Ministry of Land and Resource P.R.C Chinese nickel mining industry Characteristics of Chinese nickel mines Sulphide ore account for 90% of reserve Reserve of sulphide ore with average grade over 1% accounting for 44.1% Underground mines accounting for 68% of total reserves 11 nickel operating mines, with 81% of total China s reserves 3

4 Chinese nickel mining industry Chinese nickel mine production ktni Chinese nickel mine production in 2007 Unit:KTNi kt (f) 2009(f) 2010(f) Data source: BGRIMM production Growth rate between 2002~2007: 12.2%. Growth rate between 2008~2010: 5.0% Data source: BGRIMM Major nickel mine producer: Jinchuan, 2007 production 59 ktni, 61.8% of China s nickel mine production. Chinese nickel mininginvestment outside of China Offshore nickel projects invested by the Chinese companies Company Project Capacity ktni Starting year Commission year MCC Ramu, Papua New Guinea NFC Dagon Hill,Burma TISCO Camariocas, Cuba ZIJIN Mwetaung,Burma JINCHUAN Mnari, Zambia JINCHUAN Tasmania, Australia 70ktNi share Total Data source: BGRIMM 4

5 Chinese Refined Ni production (incl. salts) Chinese refined nickel production Chinese Refined Ni production (incl. salts) KtNi Chinese Refined Ni (incl Ni Salts ) production ktni Nickel salts and others Refined nickel production 20 Data source: BGRIMM (f) 2009(f) 2010(f) Growth rate of refined nickel production in 2002~2007: 18.8% Growth rate of refined nickel production in 2008~2010: 9.9% 5

6 Chinese Refined Ni production (incl. salts) Chinese refined nickel production in 2007 Major producer: Fukang Smelter Major producer: Jinchuan XINJIANG 3.47% GANSU 81.35% Major producer: Ji en Major producer: Yunnan Tin Group CHONGQING 1.45% YUNNAN GUANGXI 1.27% 0.97% Major producer: Yulin Data source: BGRIMM Low nickel pig iron Background: Starting from ferrousalloy producers in And developed rapidly in the past three years. Feeds sources: Philippine, Indonesia, New Caledonian Process: Electric furnace and blast furnace with capacity <=300 m3 Usage: for SS production 6

7 Low nickel pig iron ktni Low Ni pig iron production and laterite import ktni (f) 2009(f) 2010(f) Low Ni pig iron production Laterite import Data source: BGRIMM Low Ni pig iron production in 2005~2007 : av. 9.3% laterite imports in 2005~2007 : av. 11% Low nickel pig iron Current situation Many blast furnaces stopped production Some producers transferred to produce CrFe and MnFe Some producers transferred to produce NiS with laterite and S Large quantity of laterite was stockpiled in ports Due to Nickel price fluctuating Stainless steel producers cutting production Power shortage in some provinces Government s restrain on the industries with high environmental pollution and energy consumption Government announced the ban of eliminated blast furnaces for ferrousalloy production transferring to produce other products in mid

8 Low nickel pig iron New trend Electric furnace is replacing blast furnace Quality of nickel pig iron is improving Restructure of nickel pig iron industry: large producers with capacity over 100 kt/a will be dominant in the market. Low nickel pig iron Conclusion: Low Ni pig iron production in 2008~2010: av. 11.2% Laterite import in 2008~2010: av. 7.5% 8

9 Chinese nickel recycling Nickel recycling Production: 15 kt/a Feeds: scrap battery, electroplating slime, spent catalyst Production areas: Hebei, Jiangsu, Hunan, Guangdong Chinese nickel consumption Chinese nickel consumption 9

10 Chinese nickel consumption Chinese primary nickel consumption ktni ktni (f) 2009(f) 2010(f) Apparent consumption Data source: BGRIMM Growth rate of primary nickel consumption in 2002~2007: 34.3% Chinese nickel consumption Breakdown of Chinese Nickel Consumption Electroplating 15% Battery 7% Alloy and casting 5% Others 3% Stainless steel 70% Stainless steel Electroplating Battery Alloy and casting Others Data source: BGRIMM 10

11 Chinese nickel consumption Chinese stainless steel production kt kt (f) 2009(f) 2010(f) SS production Data source: China SS Association Growth rate of SS production in 2002~2007: 46.4% Chinese nickel consumption What happened in 2007: Due to high nickel price, the SS producers Cut production Increased the percentage 400 series, while decreased the percentage of 300 series and 200 series Increased the usage of SS scraps Increased the usage of low nickel pig iron, while decreased the usage of refined nickel Chinese SS production structure in 2006 Chinese SS production structure in series 22% 200 series 400 series 29% 300 series 400 series 300 series 49% 200 series 29% Data source: China SS Association 300 series 45% 200 series 26% 11

12 Chinese nickel consumption Conclusion: Growth of SS production and primary nickel consumption will slow down in 2008~2010. SS production: 11.7%. Primary nickel consumption: 5.8% Chinese nickel Import & Export 180 Chinese primary nickel im & ex ktni (f) Import Export Refined nickel import FeNi import Data source: BGRIMM 2003~ Total import av. 18.2% 12.7% Total export av. 19.2% 25% Refined Ni import: av. 12.3% 13.5 FeNi import: av. 61.9% 14.3% 12

13 Chinese nickel Import & Export Export duties on major nickel products Some nickel products involved in forbidden tolling business Item Nickel ore/concentrates Export Duty 15% Import duty 0% Item Nickel ore and concentrate FeNi Forbidden by Import Export Refined nickel 15% 0% Nickel matte Export Nickel alloy 15% 0% Refined nickel Nickel alloy Export Export Ni anode for electroplating 15% 0% Nickel scraps Export FeNi 20% 1% Nickel and nickel alloy powder Export High purification Ni 5% 0% Nickel anode for electroplating Export Ni scraps Data source: China Customs 10% 0% Purpose: Limit the export of primary nickel and nickel raw materials. Encourage the import of primary nickel and nickel raw materials. Background: China s high foreign surplus. China is short of nickel resource and other nickel raw materials. BGRIMM s work What we do? Professional team engaged in nickel market research More than 10 years working experience Detailed database of China s nickel mines, Smelters, refineries and stainless steel producers Supplying service to many international companies and organizations 13

14 China Nickel Industry Thank you! Wang Ye Tel: Fax: