Asian electricity and gas price drivers and trends Presentation at the 18 th World Chlor-alkali Conference, Singapore Mike Thomas

Transcription

1 Asian electricity and gas price drivers and trends Presentation at the 18 th World Chlor-alkali Conference, Singapore Mike Thomas 19 June 2014

2 Observation Asia faces unprecedented energy cost challenges due to high cost of natural gas Compounded by growing environmental concerns Exacerbated by overly simplistic regulation and policy Complicated by insufficient use of analysis to identify and resolve key issues and risks Often at the expense of the larger users due to cross-subsidies favouring domestic customers Costs have been increasing sometimes avoidably so 1

3 We analyse energy and gas markets for a wide range of stakeholders Collate data and information on fuels, power, transmission and policy issues Analyze data and information (supply/demand fundamentals, materials costs, investment requirements) Review regulatory drivers and possible tariff adjustments (including seller financial performance) Develop projections and scenarios Assist clients plan/respond/mitigate Fundamental cost drivers of power and gas tariffs Government and regulatory policy radar Approach and value added Fuel market dynamics Transmission and distribution related cost Government policies and market design Financial performance of incumbents Opportunity identification / negotiations support Risk factors and longer-term budgeting support 2

4 Source: TLG Asian industrial customers enjoy some of the lowest electricity tariffs (late 13) S /kwh Still subsidised Rising fuel costs Reducing subsidies Strong cross-subsidies No Subsidies Market-priced natural gas Note: Assumed typical industrial customer is connected at tension level greater than 1kV and less than 66kV, consumes 2,187,840kWh per month, with contract demand of 3000kW

5 Tokyo Jakarta Taipei Beijing Kuala Lumpur Seoul Bangkok Hong Kong Hanoi Manila Singapore Source: TLG But the tariff environment has been changing rapidly over the past two years 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 43% 28% 27% 26% Two-Year Tariff Increases (Large Customers) 18% 17% 15% 14% 10% 8% -9% Sep 2012, Tepco, Japan (Tokyo) May 2013, Kansai, Japan (Kansai) Nov 2013, Korea April 2014, Chubu, Japan June 2012 Phase 1 Taipower, Taiwan Jan 2013, Kepco, S. Korea PLN, Indonesia April 2013, PLN, Indonesia Oct 2013 Phase 2 Taipower, Taiwan Jan 2014, China (BJ, TJ, SH and HK) and Malaysia May 2014, Indonesia 4

6 In the 1970s, oil prices shot up, creating a coal window Oil Coal Up to that point, many Asian countries were using oil for power generation 5

7 Source: World Bank Almost all of Asia shifted away from oil Almost everyone moved away from oil Percent If you had no other choices, you moved quickly towards coal Percent Hong Kong Hong Kong Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Hong Kong Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Philippines It was a simple world from something expensive towards something cheaper 6

8 The opening and closing of the coal window was followed by a period of growth in use of natural gas for power generation Coal Window # Discovery of Malampaya gas field 1997 NPC/FirstGen sign GSPAs with SPEX/OXY 2006 Singapore commits to LNG imports Malaysia gas and oil development Thailand gas & oil development 1992 Singapore first gas unit commissioned 1995 Hong Kong first gas unit commissioned 2001 Commission of Malampaya Decisions are easy when the same choice gives you: green, cheaper, and local 7

9 Around 2005, a second Asian coal window opened and continues to this day Coal Window #1 Coal Window #2 Oil Coal And so here we are.most new gas in Asia is linked to the price of oil 8

10 Source: World Bank USD mmbtu Gas is Asia s confounding challenge Asia LNG price assuming slope UK NBP 6 4 Henry Hub 2 0 9

11 Source: Various government statistics and TLG analysis mmcfd mmcfd mmcfd mmcfd Most Asian countries face the need to import natural gas (typically as LNG) 6,000 5,000 Today Thailand Demand growth?? 2,500 2,000 Vietnam Impact of coal build 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,500 1,000 Supply Gap 1,000 0 North_Contracted Northeast_Contracted Gulf of Thailand_Contracted Myanmar_Contracted LNG_Qatar 4,000 Peninsular Malaysia CuuLong_Contracted NamConSon_Contracted Southwest_Contracted Demand 6,000 5,000 Indonesia 3,000 2,000 Supply Gap 4,000 3,000 Supply Gap 1, Contracted JDA via Songkhla Contracted Indonesia to Kerteh Contracted CAA PPM3 to Kerteh Contracted PM to Kerteh Demand 10 2,000 1, Java_Contracted Sumatra_Contracted Kalimantan_Contracted Demand

12 USD mmbtu Imported LNG usually comes in at the market price, and local (domestic gas) is priced differently leading to a kinked gas supply curve Who gets this? Imported LNG Price Domestic Gas Price Unseen Domestic Supply Curve Domestic Gas Imported LNG Quantity of gas The shift from domestic (often subsidised) gas, to market-priced gas has been a challenge 11

13 Gas pooling mitigates impact of LNG prices Thailand example Low-Priced Legacy Domestic Gas Pool 1 Gas Separation Excess Myanmar Imports Pool 2 PTT Retail sales to Industry EGAT Single Buyer LNG IPPs, SPPs and EGAT Generation 12

14 Gas pooling mitigates impact of LNG prices Thailand example Low-Priced Legacy Domestic Gas Excess Pool 1 Gas Separation GJ GJ Myanmar Imports Pool 2 PTT Retail sales to Industry EGAT Single Buyer LNG GJ IPPs, SPPs and EGAT Generation 13

15 Real Levelised Cost ($/MWh) Electricity pricing in Asia will be pressured upward as long as gas mix increases and cross-subsidies reduce. There is only this Fuel O&M Capital There is no more of this Coal Gas (Legacy) CCGT Gas (Pool 2) Gas Market (LNG) Price 14 Source: TLG analysis

16 Source; World Bank Coal prices have been coming down, providing some cover for countries with significant coal in their fuel mix 200 New Castle Coal Index, USD/metric tonne

17 But increasing the use of gas for power can be more expensive The Terrible No Good Very Bad Economics of Gas for Baseload Power in Asia Gas Price / Coal Price 6 5 Market Value of Gas 4 Use coal 3 2 Use gas Approximate Thailand Legacy Gas Prices 1 TODAY Economic quantity of gas is about 1/5 th the tempting quantity OLD DAYS 0 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% New Gas Plant Optimal Utilisation 16

18 Source: TLG Coal has a place in the Asian power sector, even despite CO 2 emissions... These values are much greater than the cost of CO2 credits traded in other countries For Asia to stay competitive on electricity pricing a new approach is needed 17

19 Source: TLG The other issue is who pays Larger customers in Asia typically pay a larger portion of utility costs Ratio of residential tariff compared to commercial electricity tariff in 2012 Beijing Kuala Lumpur Taipei Shanghai Hanoi Jakarta Madrid Bangkok Hong Kong Sydney Singapore Berlin Paris Lisbon London New York Helsinki Brussels Tokyo Seoul Amsterdam Rome Wellington Asia cities Rest of World Residential tariffs Less than Small Commercial tariffs Residential tariffs Greater than Small Commercial tariffs Source: TLG analysis Politicized tariffs (cross-subsidies) create pressures either larger customers pay more or the power utility earns less 18

20 The Bad News Rising Costs are Real Shift to market-priced fuels throughout Asia Depleting local supplies Increased reliance on imports Exposure to global markets increasing! Environmental costs rising Reduced appetite for subsidies Yet protection for domestic customers Impacts Tariffs have increased sharply in many countries Most of the bigger increases have been achieved, but some further adjustments are likely Protection of domestic customers at expense of larger customers will become more sensitive Worth greater focus on demand response and energy efficiency investments Increased power sector exposure to global fuel markets means more frequent tariff adjustments 19

21 The Good News Gas prices more likely to ease than to increase More gas supplies for the region Russia Australia USA Gas demand growth under control? Japan s nuclear restart? Malaysia shift to coal (example) China slowing growth Renewables uptake growing Coal prices more likely to stay low than to increase Ample supply New sources from USA Slower growth in China Industry shake out mostly hits smaller, inefficient mines, relatively few of which are for power generation Oil forward curve? Downward except for Middle East strife? 20

22 Thank You Power Utilities Energy Insight Contact Mike Thomas Liutong Zhang Xinmin Hu Xiao Yue Rigour By phone (office) Value By mail Tower 1, Metroplaza 223 Hing Fong Road, Kwai Fong, Hong Kong Online 21

23 Appendix China energy story 22

24 China s story is about fuel choice, grid development and environmental regulation China s coal/unconventional gases/wind/solar energy bases and China s future energy warehouses Transmission and transport constraints Water constraints and fragile ecosystems Improper infrastructures Economic growth faster than national average Heilongjiang Jilin Xinjiang Inner Mongolia Liaoning Gansu Beijing Hebei Tibet Qinghai China s hydropower bases and major West-China Power Exporting Sources but increasing seasonal and temporal power shortages Sichuan Yunnan Ningxia Shanxi Shandong Shaanxi Henan Jiangsu Anhui Hubei Shanghai Chongqing Zhejiang Hunan Jiangxi Guizhou Fujian Taiwan China s most developed and populated regions and energy/power demand centers Must import from other regions Lack of energy resources Environmental issues are extreme Well developed infrastructure Guangxi Guangdong Hainan 23

25 China s on-grid (wholesale) power costs vary widely by location China on-grid coal plant tariffs after the December 2011 hike, Yuan/MWh > Policy and underlying cost factors favour concentrating tariff increases in wealthier provinces Broad desire to support development in inner provinces to balance China s growth < Higher wholesale power costs in wealthier provinces 24

26 Transmission Project Cost (RMB/km) The world s most expensive grid yet to be completed Rapid expansion of ultra-high voltage DC Systems UHV project costs are much more expensive than the others kV 220kV 330kV 500kV 750kV 1000kV 25 State Grid also has even more ambitious plans to expand the UHV AC network to tap remote resources for eastern load centres Grid development is a longer-term watching brief it is at least three years behind original plans, and has implications for the timing and extent of natural gas (higher cost) in the eastern provinces

27 USD/MMBtu Environmental pressures will push up gas usage but higher costs will have to be recovered China natural gas supply sources Comparative supply costs of gas into Shanghai 100% 90% 80% 70% 13% 8% LNG imports International pipeline imports Domestic production 18% 23% % 8 50% 6 40% 30% 20% % 0% Domestic CBM Shale conventio nal gas Turkmen pipeline gas Other pipeline gas Oil-index LNG (slope: 13.5) Canadian LNG US Gulf LNG 26

28 Huaneng fuel cost (RMB/MWh) Huaneng financing cost (RMB/MWh) China Summary Fuel costs have risen but are now easing, but non-fuel costs are still rising Increasing environmental control cost China has more than 817 GWs of thermal generation that fail to meet China s National Air Emissions Standards. Investment of US$ 31 billion is required with an on-going increase in annual operational costs of US$ 10 billion Fuel Cost Source: Huaneng Power International annual reports Financing Cost Rising renewable energy surcharge cost China is just starting to pay extra to increase renewable energy, but the total amount of power purchased remains very low compared to thermal and hydro generation Other costs are rising as well (Labor, equipment and material cost) 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20, Maintenance Cost (RMB/MW/Year) 27