The Pharma Forecasting Course

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Warren Lamb
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1 LAST UPDATE 13 Octber 2015 The Pharma Frecasting Curse By: Gary Jhnsn The mst dwn-t-earth pharma frecasting expert with superb training talent. Funder & CEO f Inpharmatin, Eurpe's mst respected pharma frecasting & pricing specialist cnsultancy. Renwned cnsultant fr the wrld s tp 10 pharma cmpanies, and many mre. Winner f a number f speaking and best paper awards. Authr f Sales Frecasting fr Pharmaceuticals: An Evidence Based Apprach. By attending this curse: 1. Yu will learn techniques and appraches that have been prven t wrk best fr frecasting sales f pharmaceuticals including pharma-specific drivers like market access, step-care, targeted therapies etc. 2. Yu will be able t challenge the frecasts thers have prduced fr yu, and prduce yur wn frecasts in mst situatins. 3. Cncepts will be explained in simple, nn-mathematical terms. Cncrete examples frm the pharma industry are used rather than vague cncepts. 4. Yu will leave with a cllectin f techniques and principles that yu can implement easily and immediately after the curse. 5. Yu will receive an Excel-based frecasting tl that integrates all the techniques taught and applied during the wrkshp. This ensures yu leave with real hands-n ability t use the techniques. 6. Yu will receive Gary s bk Sales Frecasting fr Pharmaceuticals: An Evidence Based Apprach, which will be a valuable reference t have with yu. What sets this curse apart? Gary Jhnsn is an award-winning expert-trainer wh: Has cnsulted/frecast fr every tp 10 pharma cmpany. T register, cmplete the nline registratin frm at 17

Winner f a number f speaking and best paper awards. Authr f Sales Frecasting fr Pharmaceuticals: An Evidence Based Apprach. By attending this curse: 1.

2 LAST UPDATE 13 Octber 2015 Expert in frecasting but als all quantitative techniques, s that frecasting is tied in t market access, market research etc. Has frecast fr every leading cuntry and majr therapy area. Finalist fr the MCA Business Bk f the Year Award and semi-finalist fr the Financial Times Glbal Business Bk f the Year Award. Winner f the EphMRA and BHBIA (British Healthcare Business Intelligence Assciatin) best paper awards. Trained ver 1000 executives arund the wrld. His presentatins are cnstantly tweaked accrding t delegate feedback. They have thus evlved ver the years s they are easy t understand and cnsistently get very high custmer feedback scres. Unlike ther frecasting curses, in this prgramme: The fcus is n techniques and appraches that have been prven t wrk best. Cncepts are explained in simple, nn-mathematical terms. Cncrete examples are used rather than vague cncepts Pharma-specific techniques which take int accunt issues like market-access and nt generic frecasting techniques that struggle when applied t pharma. Delegates leave with a cllectin f techniques and principles that they can implement easily and immediately. Wh shuld attend? Frecasters wh want t build mre evidence based appraches int their frecasts. Marketers wh want t understand hw t link frecasts t their real-wrld cncerns (like the cmpetitiveness f their prduct prfile, prmtinal spend, speed t market etc.) Market researchers wh want t knw hw t take data frm surveys and audits and reflect them in frecasts. Market access and pricing executives wh want t break dwn the sils that exist between frecasting and ther functins and t understand hw their cncerns shuld be reflected in frecasts As well as any ther executive wh has t prduce r receive a frecast as a part f their prfessinal rle. Executives frm prfessinal services rganisatins shuld request apprval frm Gary Jhnsn prir t registering t this curse. Please cntact Annelies Swaan, Marketing & Sales Manager, annelies.swaan@celfrpharma.cm, tel +32 (0) Curse agenda The curse starts n the first day at 09:30h with a welcme cffee and ends n the secnd day at 16:00h. Day 1 Welcme & General Intrductin The Right Apprach t Frecasting When t use mdels and when t use judgement. When t use extraplatin and when t use 'causal' (e.g. prmtinal spend). T register, cmplete the nline registratin frm at 18

Winner f the EphMRA and BHBIA (British Healthcare Business Intelligence Assciatin) best paper awards. Trained ver 1000 executives arund the wrld.

3 LAST UPDATE 13 Octber 2015 Whether t use a single frecasting mdel r mre than ne. The Prven Rules f Gd Frecasting Why yu shuld 'divide and cnquer' when building a frecast. Why simple appraches wrk best (and what we mean by 'simple'). The ther key rules that frty years f academic research int frecasting have prven. Structuring a Frecast What is meant by an 'epi-based frecast'. What is meant by a 'patient-based frecast'. What is meant by a 'sales-based frecast'. Fitting market access int yur frecast structure. When t use each f the abve. Extraplatin A simple ttally nn-mathematical explanatin f hw extraplatin techniques differ frm each ther. Which simple extraplatin techniques wrk best? Which nes are built int Excel and which nes require additinal sftware. The Impact f Prduct Prfile n Yur Market Share The key idea behind cnjint analysis (the mst cmmn research technique fr lking at the impact f prduct prfile). Hw t build a simple cnjint-type mdel yurself, withut a survey fr frecasting. GROUP DINNER Day 2 The Impact f Launch Order n Yur Market Share Hw and why launch rder affects yur market share. Hw t build a simple launch rder mdel t predict the impact f yur launch rder. The Impact f Prmtinal Spend n Yur Market Share Hw and why prmtinal spend affects yur market share. Hw t build a simple prmtinal spend mdel t predict the impact f prmtinal spend n yur market share. Building Market Access and Other Pharma Specific Cnsideratins int Yur Frecast Hw market access has different effects at different levels f yur frecast Simple market access mdelling appraches Hw c-prescriptin affects shares. T register, cmplete the nline registratin frm at 19

Structuring a Frecast What is meant by an 'epi-based frecast'. What is meant by a 'patient-based frecast'. What is meant by a 'sales-based frecast'. Fitting market access int yur frecast structure.

4 LAST UPDATE 13 Octber 2015 Hw 'lines f therapy' affect shares. Hw ff-label usage affects shares. Frecasting Hw Quickly Yu Will Achieve Yur Sales Ptential Why therapy class uptakes tend t be 's-shaped'. Why brand market share uptakes tend t be 'r-shaped'. A simple nn-mathematical explanatin f hw the famus Bass Mdel can help yu predict the abve. Flw/State mdels (new, repeat, switch etc.) and their rle in frecasting uptakes. Where t Get The Data Fr Yur Frecasts Cmpliance and cntinuatin/persistence. Epidemilgy surces and accuracies. Diagnsis and prescriptin rate surces and accuracies. Events (which events really matter and why mst frecasts are "ver-evented'). Learning methdlgy This curse ptimally balances interactive lectures and grup wrk n case studies that illustrate the thery and enable delegates t practice the tls & techniques. Yu will be prvided with an Excel wrkbk (that yu can take hme n a CD-ROM) including simple exercises that yu will cmplete at the end f each sessin. This will ensure yu leave with real handsn ability t use the techniques. Meet the expert: Gary Jhnsn As the funder and Managing Directr f Inpharmatin, a cnsultancy specialising in pharma frecasting and mdelling, Gary Jhnsn wrks with the wrld's tp 10 pharma cmpanies and many mre. Gary is als the expert-trainer n ur ppular Value Pricing fr Market Access curse. Prir t funding Inpharmatin, Gary spent tw decades in the pharma industry hlding senir psitins, such as General Manager and Head f Glbal Marketing with a number f majr blue-chip pharma cmpanies, including SmithKline Beecham, Fisns and Schwarz. Gary Jhnsn is a sught-after industry speaker and cnference chairman. Winner f a number f speaking and best paper awards with the EphMRA and the BHBIA, he is the authr f "Value Pricing fr Market Access: Evidence-based pricing fr pharmaceuticals" and "Sales Frecasting fr Pharmaceuticals: An Evidence Based Apprach" - the definitive wrk n pricing and sales frecasting f pharmaceutical prducts. Other bks include Mnkey Business: Why the Way Yu Manage is a Millin Years ut f Date finalist fr the MCA Bk Prize. T register, cmplete the nline registratin frm at 20

A simple nn-mathematical explanatin f hw the famus Bass Mdel can help yu predict the abve. Flw/State mdels (new, repeat, switch etc.) and their rle in frecasting uptakes.

5 LAST UPDATE 13 Octber 2015 Dates, Venue & Accmmdatin Please have a lk at Registratin fee Please have a lk at T register, please cmplete the nline registratin frm at T register, cmplete the nline registratin frm at 21

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ready. aiim. learn. 2-day BPM Specialist Training Class - Learn global best practices for improving business processes

ready. aiim. learn. 2-day BPM Specialist Training Class - Learn global best practices for improving business processes 2-day BPM Specialist Training Class - Learn glbal best practices fr imprving business prcesses Intrductin The Business Prcess Management (BPM) Certificate Prgram is designed frm glbal best practices amng