Houston Economic Outlook. Presented by Patrick Jankowski Vice President, Research

Transcription

1 Houston Economic Outlook Presented by Patrick Jankowski Vice President, Research

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3 Follow me on Read my blog: wwwhouston.org/economy/blog Connect with me:

4 Gross Regional Product

5 Fourth Largest U.S. Metro Economy 2012 Gross Domestic Product Rank Metro Area $ Billions 1 New York 1, Los Angeles Chicago Houston Washington Dallas-Ft Worth Philadelphia San Francisco Boston Atlanta Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

6 28 th Largest Global Economy 2012 Gross Domestic Product Rank Global Economies $ Billions 23 Norway Poland Belgium Argentina Taiwan Houston Austria South Africa United Arab Emirates Venezuela Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

7 Second Fastest Growing Economy * Change in Real GDP Rank Metro Area % 1 San Francisco Houston Dallas-Ft Worth Los Angeles Atlanta Chicago Boston Philadelphia New York Washington 0.7 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis * 10 largest U.S. metro economies

8 Population

9 Fifth Most Populous Metro Most Populous U.S. Metros Rank Metro Area Population 1 New York 19,949,502 2 Los Angeles 13,131,431 3 Chicago 9,537,289 4 Dallas-Fort Worth 6,810,913 5 Houston 6,313,158 6 Philadelphia 6,034,678 7 Washington 5,949,859 8 Atlanta 5,828,191 9 Miami 5,522, Boston 4,684,299 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

10 Fastest Growing Major Metro Rank Metro Areas Change Since 7/1/13 # % 1 Houston 137, New York 111, Dallas-Fort Worth 108, Los Angeles 94, Washington, DC 87, Atlanta 68, Miami 64, Boston 42, Chicago 23, Philadelphia 15, Source: U.S. Census Bureau

11 Houston s Rank Through the Years Year Population Rank 13 6,177,035 5th 10 5,920,416 6th 00 4,693,161 8th 90 3,750,411 10th Source: U.S. Census Bureau

12 Employment Picture

13 Employment (000) Employment at an All-Time High 2,900 Total Nonfarm Payroll, Houston Metro Area, '04 - '14 2,800 2,700 2,600 2,500 2,400 2,300 2,200 Jan '04 Jan '05 Jan '06 Jan '07 Jan '08 Jan '09 Jan '10 Jan '11 Jan '12 Jan '13 Jan '14 Source: Texas Workforce Commission

14 Job Creation Houston Metro Area December to December 115,400 80,500 76,200 47,300 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 Source: Texas Workforce Commission and Greater Houston Partnership forecast

15 2013 Employment Snapshot Job Gains Accommodations and Dining Services Administrative Services Arts, Entertainment, Recreation Educational Services Exploration and Production Government Health Care Information Manufacturing Oil Field Services Personal Services Professional Services Real Estate Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Utilities Job Losses Finance All but one sector reported job gains in Houston last year.

16 The Laggards Jobs Lost in the Recession Jobs Recouped Construction 46,200 25,000-21,000 Specialty Trade Contractors 24,300 13,500-10,800 Construction of Buildings 14,400 4,600-9,800 Financial Activities 9,800 5,700-4,100 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 5,800 4,200-1,600 Credit Intermediation and Related Activities 3,500 1,800-1,700 Insurance Carriers and Related Activities 2, ,700 Information 5,600 1,700-3,900 Telecommunications 3, ,600 Non-Durables Manufacturing 8,600 4,900-3,700 Other Chemical Manufacturing 5,300 3,100-2,200 Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing 1, ,100 Computer Manufacturing 2,300 1, Air Transportation 3, ,000 Source: Texas Workforce Commission Gap

17 Houston vs The Competition

18 Houston vs the Top Metros Percent of jobs recovered through January 14 Houston vs Top 10 Metros Houston 246.8% Dallas 197.3% Washington Boston 172.6% 165.7% New York 129.3% Atlanta 88.0% Miami Chicago Los Angeles Philadelphia 68.2% 67.1% 54.4% 48.9% 100% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Seasonally adjusted

19 Houston vs the Top Metros Percent of jobs recovered through January 14 Houston vs Second Tier Metros Houston 268.3% San Francisco Baltimore Minneapolis Seattle San Diego 133.6% 120.8% 113.2% 111.4% 100.5% Tampa Riverside Phoenix 65.6% 64.2% 63.9% St. Louis Detroit 30.8% 38.8% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Seasonally adjusted 100%

20 A few key sectors

21 Units (000s) Home Sales 100 Unit Sales, 12-Month Total, Houston Metro Area, '04 - ' ,472 homes Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Houston Association of REALTORS

22 Vehicles (000s) Auto Sales 400 Vehicle Sales, 12-Month Total, Houston Metro Area, ,224 vehicles Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan -14 Jan -15 Source: TexAuto Facts Report by InfoNation

23 Causes for concern

24 Employment Growth Rates (12-Months Ending) 18.9% 16.9% Source: GHP cacluations based on Texas Workforce Commission data Peak 12.6% 4.6% Oil and Gas Extraction Oilfield Services Oilfield Equipment Manufacturing Total Nonfarm Employment

25 Employment Growth Rates (12-Months Ending) 18.9% 16.9% Source: GHP cacluations based on Texas Workforce Commission data Peak July ' % 8.6% 6.2% 4.6% 3.9% 3.5% Oil and Gas Extraction Oilfield Services Oilfield Equipment Manufacturing Total Nonfarm Employment

26 Employment Growth Rates (12-Months Ending) 18.9% 16.9% Source: GHP cacluations based on Texas Workforce Commission data Peak July '13 Dec ' % 8.6% 7.0% 6.2% 1.7% 4.6% 3.9% 3.5% 2.4% 2.8% Oil and Gas Extraction Oilfield Services Oilfield Equipment Manufacturing Total Nonfarm Employment

27 Employment Growth Rate 12-Month Change in Employment 4.5% 4.6% 4.4% 4.5% 4.1% 3.9% 3.9% 4.1% 3.9% 3.6% 3.7% 3.2% 3.3% 4.0% 4.1% 4.0% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 2.8% 2.8% Source: Texas Workforce Commission

28 Employment Growth Rate 12-Month Change in Employment Source: Texas Workforce Commission

29 Foreign Trade - Exports Houston-Galveston Customs District $ Billions (US) $119.4 $127.1 $129.1 $89.9 $94.7 $72.3 $75.2 $27.9 $25.7 $29.4 $29.1 $29.5 $32.0 $39.5 $47.0 $58.1 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Source: WISERTrade

30 Resale Homes Months of Inventory 7.9 Months Months 0 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 Source: Houston Association of Realtors

31 Where s the economy headed?

32 2014 Forecast for Houston GHP s forecast for 14 69,800 new jobs, 2.5 percent annual rate Job creation in every major sector Growth above historic trend

33 Job Creation Houston Metro Area December to December 115,400 80,500 76,200 69,800 47,300 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 Source: Texas Workforce Commission and Greater Houston Partnership forecast

34 Jobs by Sector Jobs Created, 000s Professional/Business Services 15.4 Trade, Transportation, Utilities 12.3 Educational & Health Services 8.9 Leisure and Hospitality 7.0 Construction Mining and Logging Manufacturing 4.2 Government 3.4 Other Services Financial Activities Source: Greater Houston Partnership forecast Information 0.2

35 Employment (Millions) This Time Next Year 3.0 Total Nonfarm Payroll, Houston Metro Area, As of Year End ' '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Source: Texas Workforce Commission and Greater Houston Partnership forecast

36 Follow me on Read my blog: wwwhouston.org/economy/blog Connect with me:

37 Houston Economic Outlook Presented by Patrick Jankowski Vice President, Research