The Power of Numbers: Application of BLS Data to Key Business Decisions

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1 The Power of Numbers: Application of BLS Data to Key Business Decisions Cheryl R. Abbot Chief, Economic Analysis & Information U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Southwest Regional Office, Dallas Texas Economic Development Council Legislative Conference, Austin, Texas February 25, 2015

2 About the BLS n BLS is the principal fact-finding agency in labor economics n We are an independent statistical agency in existence since 1884, actually pre-dating the DOL n Our mission is to collect, process, analyze, and disseminate data to many different audiences n This mission is accomplished through our office in Washington, D.C., and six regional offices across the U.S.

3 Agenda n The great recession a recap n The great recovery what do the data show n A tour of the BLS website n What can BLS data tell you about your local area State and Area Employment, Hours, and Earnings Local Area Unemployment Statistics Occupational Employment Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Mapping tool

4 THE GREAT RECESSION

5 Happy days are here again

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14 Unemployment Rates 2009 March 2008

15 Since the recession began in December 2007, the economy has had a net loss of about 4.2 percent of its nonfarm payroll jobs.

16 THE GREAT RECOVERY WHAT DO THE DATA SHOW?

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18 Total U.S. jobs have recovered Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES. Two most recent months of data are preliminary.

19 All states have added jobs since the jobs trough in February 2010 but not evenly Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES. Percentage increase in nonfarm employment by state, seasonally adjusted, February 2010 December 2014.

20 Percent change in total jobs since national employment trough (Feb. 2010) U.S. & selected metropolitan areas

21 Percent job change in jobs since local areas job peak (varies from March 2007 August 2008)

22 Which came first, the chicken or the egg? Unemployment rates and rates of job change show an inverse relationship Percent Unemployment Rates Texas U.S Percent Job Growth Rates Texas U.S Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPS and LAUS

23 A TOUR OF THE BLS WEBSITE: OVERVIEW OF USEFUL LINKS

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25 From Home Menu: At-a-Glance Tables

26 Industries at a Glance

27 Oil and Gas Extraction Industry

28 Oil and Gas Extraction: Earnings & Fatalities

29 From Home Menu: At-a-Glance Tables

30 Regions, States and Areas Economies at a Glance (EAGs)

31 EAGs: Unemployment Rate and Industry Growth, Current and One-Click Historical Access

32 One-Click Access to Data, Chart, and File Download: 12-Month Percent Change, Texas Construction Jobs

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35 Geographic Guide A Quick Data Matrix

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40 Regional Homepages (Southwest) Latest releases by state and area View all news releases >>

41 Regional News Release Archives

42 INTRODUCTION TO BLS DATA

43 BLS Data for Businesses n While there are many ways that BLS data can be used, your interest most likely lies in how BLS data may be used in making key business decisions, for example: Where to locate? When to expand? What to pay?

44 Which BLS Program best describes the state of the economy? n CES n QCEW n CPS n BED n LAUS n JOLTS

45 Depending on what you re looking for, they all do... CES: Job growth or loss CPS: U.S. unemployment rate LAUS: State & area unemployment rates QCEW: Detailed industry growth by county BED: Gross expansions/contractions & net change JOLTS: Job openings & labor turnover

46 CPS/LAUS CES QCEW JOLTS/BED Emphasis People Jobs Jobs Jobs Primary Use/ Output Unemployment Rate and Demographics Job growth by industry Job growth & wages by detailed industry Openings, Turnover, Labor Market Churn Source Household Survey/Model Establishment Sample Census of U.I. Records Establishment Sample & U.I. Coverage Virtually all persons, age 16+ Nonfarm jobs; no unpaid family workers or selfemployed Same as CES plus covered agriculture Same as CES + covered ag; BED (xcld Gvt) Reported Down To: U.S. (limited State & MSA) /County MSA County State Level; MLS some metro Released Monthly Monthly Quarterly Mo/Quarterly

47 What can BLS data tell you about your local area? State and Area Employment, Hours, and Earnings Local Area Unemployment Statistics Occupational Employment Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Mapping tool

48 Job growth rates by metropolitan area, December 2014 Areas with faster rates of job growth may offer a better chance of business success. Percent Dallas Houston San Francisco Miami Atlanta United States Boston Los Angeles New York Detroit Chicago Phila- delphia Wash- ington Source: BLS, Current Employment Statistics Survey-State and Area.

49 Houston job growth rates by major industry sector, December 2014 Percent 10.0 Is growth coming from a single industry or from above-average growth rates across industries? Total nonfarm Mining & logging Construc- Qon EducaQon & health services Financial acqviqes Profes- sional & business services Leisure & Manufac- hospitality turing Govern- ment Trade, transport- aqon, & uqliqes Inform- aqon Source: BLS, Current Employment Statistics Survey-State and Area.

50 In some sectors, increases in average weekly hours almost always precede job growth and add another dimension to the study of states economic strength Source: BLS-Dallas, Current Employment Statistics Survey-State and Area, and internal calculations.

51 What can BLS data tell you about your local area? State and Area Employment, Hours, and Earnings Local Area Unemployment Statistics Occupational Employment Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Mapping tool

52 Local Area Unemployment Statistics Data Provides civilian labor force, employed, unemployed, and unemployment rate for: All states & the District of Columbia More than 300 metropolitan areas ALL counties in the U.S. (and Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands!) Cities of 25,000 or more

53

54 Unemployment by Labor Force Status

55 Unemployment rates Is it an indicator of long-term slack in the labor market, meaning low wage pressures, or a short-term imbalance? Unemployment rates by state, Seasonally adjusted, December 2015 Texas county unemployment rates, not seasonally adjusted, December 2014 Source: BLS, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS).

56 Area Rankings by Unemployment Rate December 2014 Rank Metropolitan Area Rate 1 Midland, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area Logan, UT-ID Metropolitan Statistical Area Lincoln, NE Metropolitan Statistical Area Mankato-North Mankato, MN Metropolitan Statistical Area Odessa, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area Amarillo, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area College Station-Bryan, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ Metropolitan Statistical Area Hanford-Corcoran, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area Yuba City, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area Ocean City, NJ Metropolitan Statistical Area Visalia-Porterville, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area Merced, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area El Centro, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area Yuma, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area 22.1

57 What can BLS data tell you about your local area? State and Area Employment, Hours, and Earnings Local Area Unemployment Statistics Occupational Employment Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Mapping tool

58 Occupational Employment Statistics n Published annually n Cover full-time & part-time workers in nonfarm industries n Provides employment and wages for 800+ occupations n National, state, MSA (375 areas), and rural area estimates n Used by employers and researchers to study relocation and expansion decisions n Used by job seekers and employers to determine salary ranges for different occupations in different locations and in different industries n Used by researchers to study wage inequality, changes in employment composition, and shifting occupational patterns

59 Selected OES Outputs n 10 largest occupations by detailed industry at the national level. n Employment, wages, and percent distribution of wages by detailed occupation for states, MSA s and rural county aggregates (download by area or occupation or everything at once) n Occupational Profiles with selected state and area geographic detail and prepared maps

60 U.S. employment & wages for the 10 largest occupations in the freight trucking industry

61 OES Output: One area, many occupations Area: San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Occupation Employment Hourly mean wage Annual mean wage Psychiatrists Pharmacists Registered Nurses Dental Hygienists 670 3,420 34,710 2,940 $ $231,730 $64.59 $134,360 $59.54 $123,830 $49.83 $103,650 Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 6,430 $29.92 $62,240 Pharmacy Technicians 3,600 $23.15 $48,150 Data reference date: May 2013

62 OES Occupational Profiles (State)

63 OES Map Output: Employment by Area

64 OES Map Output: Location Quotients by Area

65 Houston & Washington D.C.!

66 OES Output: Many areas, one occupation Where are wages high? Where are they low? Source: BLS, Occupational Employment Statistics (OES).

67 Occupational Employment Concentrations: Where are your types of workers located? Highest concentrations: heavy & tractor-trailer truck drivers Source: BLS, Occupational Employment Statistics (OES).

68 What can BLS data tell you about your local area? State and Area Employment, Hours, and Earnings Local Area Unemployment Statistics Occupational Employment Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Mapping tool

69 Industry Concentrations AR counties: Trade, Transportation, & Utilities Source: BLS, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), March 2014 data. Location quotients (LQs) greater than 1.0 (blue) indicate counties with above average industry concentrations, LQs less than 1.0 (orange) indicate lower industry concentrations.

70 Annual percent change in wages AR counties: All Industries Source: BLS, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), March 2014.

71 IMPROVING AMERICA S ECONOMIC DATA: HOW CAN YOU HELP?

72 Provide Your Support for Voluntary Cooperation n Inform your members of the availability of the free and reliable data provided by BLS and available on our website n Let them know that technical assistance is just a phone call or away from BLS Regional and National Information Offices n Your organizational endorsements are welcome Posts to organization s website Organizational news letters Official letters of endorsement

73 Where to Find BLS Data Discussed Today n State and Area Employment & Earnings n Local Area Unemployment Statistics n Occupational Employment Statistics n Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages n BLS Southwest Information Office

74 Contact Information Cheryl Abbot Regional Economist & Chief Southwest Information Office

75 APPENDIX

76 Voluntary Cooperation n Nearly all of our surveys are voluntary n Without the cooperation of companies who participate in our surveys we could not provide high-quality information about the economy n We do our best to reduce respondent burden n Confidentiality is as important to the Bureau as it is to respondents

77 Private sector uses of Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) Data n OES web pages had 10 million hits and fielded thousands of customer requests n Employers use OES data in: relocation and expansion decisions setting pay scales reviewing industry staffing patterns n Researchers use OES data to study topics such as: wage inequality wage changes due to employment composition changes shifting occupational patterns emerging occupations STEM employment

78 OES Output: One Occupation, Many Areas Wage Percentile Data Occupation: Registered Nurses Hourly 10th percentile wage Hourly 25th percentile wage Hourly 75th percentile wage Hourly 90th percentile wage Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos $22.94 $25.80 $35.91 $42.01 College Station-Bryan Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown San Antonio-New Braunfels Northwestern TX Nonmet area (1) Estimates for detailed occupations do not sum to the totals because the totals include occupations not shown separately. Estimates do not include self-employed workers. Data for May 2013

79 Other Employment Surveys Mass Layoff Statistics (MLS) Using the U.I. Claims system, reports on mass layoffs that result in workers being separated from their jobs. Monthly mass layoff numbers are from establishments which have at least 50 initial claims for unemployment insurance filed against them during a 5-week period. Extended mass layoffs (issued quarterly) are from a subset of such establishments where private sector nonfarm employers indicate that 50 or more workers were separated from their jobs for at least 31 days. Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) Establishment survey which produces data on job openings, hires, and separations. Business Employment Dynamics (BED) A set of statistics generated from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, or ES-202, program. These quarterly data series consist of gross job gains and gross job losses statistics from 1992 forward. These data help to provide a picture of the dynamic state, or churn, of the labor market.

80 What can BLS data tell you about your local area? State and Area Employment, Hours, and Earnings Local Area Unemployment Statistics Occupational Employment Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Mapping tool Business Employment Dynamics (time allowing)

81 Business Employment Dynamics-States

82 Business Employment Dynamics: State charts directly from BLS website

83 Business Employment Dynamics: State charts with a little custom work Percent 9.0 Texas private industry gross job gains and losses, and resulting net change in jobs, as a percent of employment, June 1993 June 2014, seasonally adjusted Rate of gross job gains Rate of gross job losses 4.0 Jun-93 Jun-94 Jun-95 Jun-96 Jun-97 Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14

84 Business Employment Dynamics: State charts with a little custom work Texas private industry gross job gains and losses, and resulting net change in jobs, as a percent of employment, June 1993 June 2014, seasonally adjusted Percent Rate of gross job gains Rate of gross job losses Net rate of job change Jun-93 Jun-94 Jun-95 Jun-96 Jun-97 Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14

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87 The Employment Cost Index provides data by broad industry and occupational group Wage increases in retail trade, excluding incentive paid occupations, have remained below total private industry Source: BLS, Employment Cost Index (ECI).

88 Wage trends vary by area 12-month percent change in Employment Cost Index, June 2013-June 2014 Source: BLS, Employment Cost Index (ECI).

89 Benefit costs vary by type of benefit and by industry Source: BLS, Employer Costs for Employee Compensation (ECEC), Second Quarter, 2014.

90 States uses of Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) Data n State workforce agencies are a primary user of OES data Local Labor market analysis Education and training investment planning Labor Shortage analysis Workforce investment Direct investment in education and training State prevailing wage applications State projections and Career Guidance

91 Texas Labor Market Information Office n Labor Market Information Texas Workforce Commission 101 E. 15th St. Suite 0252 Austin, TX Internet:

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