A summary of regional and national economic indicators for the Tenth District states SUMMARY OF CURRENT TENTH DISTRICT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

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1 Tenth THE District ECONOMIC DATABOOK A summary of regional and national economic indicators for the states APRIL 18, 216 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of KANSAS CITY SUMMARY OF CURRENT TENTH DISTRICT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS The unemployment rate was 4. percent across the states in March, and total payroll employment grew.9 percent compared to the previous year. Employment growth was mixed across industries, with the strongest percentage gains in the leisure and hospitality and healthcare and social assistance sectors. nominal personal income grew 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 215 compared to the previous year. In the energy sector, rig counts were well below yearago levels. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Manufacturing Survey indicated a decline in manufacturing activity in March 216, with a composite index of Nonirrigated farmland values, as measured by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions, decreased 3.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 215 compared to the same period in 214. This databook provides current economic indicators to help monitor trends and allow comparison of past information. These indicators include: gross domestic product (GDP); inflation; employment; employment by industry; state unemployment; personal income; home prices; housing indicators; manufacturing activity; oil, gas and coal production; agriculture; and exports. These indicators can be found on the following pages. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's headquarters is located at 1 Memorial Drive in the heart of Kansas City, Missouri. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City serves the Tenth Federal Reserve District, which includes Colorado, Kansas, western Missouri, Nebraska, northern New Mexico, Oklahoma and Wyoming. There are three branches across the Tenth Federal Reserve District located in Denver, Oklahoma City, and Omaha. 1

2 SELECTED PRICE INDICATORS 6% 3.8% 4.6% U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product at Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rates 4.3% 3.9% High-End Projection Low-End Projection 6% 2% 2.1%.6% % 2.3% 2.1% 2.1% % 2% -2% -.9% -2% '13Q4 '14Q1 '14Q2 '14Q3 '14Q4 '15Q1 '15Q2 '15Q3 '15Q FOMC Central Tendency Projections 6% Contributions to Real U.S. GDP at Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rates 6% 2% 1. 2% -2% -2% - '1Q4 '11Q2 '11Q4 '12Q2 '12Q4 '13Q2 '13Q4 '14Q2 '14Q4 '15Q2 '15Q4 Personal Consumption Expenditures Gross Private Domestic Investment Govt. Consumption & Investment Net Exports Real Gross Domestic Product - 2% % 2.7% Real Gross Domestic Product 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.3% % 2% -2% -1.7% -2% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Open Market Committee/Haver Analytics 2

3 6% PCE & CPI-U Inflation, Seasonally Adjusted SELECTED PRICE INDICATORS 6% 2% 2% -2% PCE Headline PCE Core -2% - CPI-U Headline CPI-U Core - Feb '6 Feb '8 Feb '1 Feb '12 Feb '14 Feb ' PCE by Component, Seasonally Adjusted 1.7% -.1% -1.5% 2.1% - -8% -12% December 215 January 216 February % -8% -12% -16% Headline Core Energy Food Goods Services -16% 5% Producer Prices, Seasonally Adjusted 1.6% 5% -5% % -3.1% -5% -1-15% -2-25% December 215 January 216 February % -13.1% -15% -2-25% -3 Finished Goods Less Foods & Energy Intermediate Goods Less Foods & Energy Crude Materials Nonfood Materials Less Energy -3 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 3

4 EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY March 216 U.S. Payroll Employment Seasonally Adjusted Total Nonfarm Private Sector Goods-Producing Construction Mining & Logging Manufacturing Service-Providing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation & Warehousing Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional & Business Services Educational Services Healthcare & Social Assistance Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Government State Government Local Government Number of Jobs (Thousands) 19,683 6, ,291 5,92 15,942 4, ,774 8,227 2,42 3,517 19,22 15,461 5,679 22,82 2,77 5,1 14, , ,692 12,47 Jobs Gained (Thousands) ,82 2,681 2,561 Share of Employment % 13.7% 4.6%.5% 8.6% 7.9% 4.1% 11.1% % 5.7% 13.9% % 1.7% % 3.6% 9.9% 9% U.S. Payroll Employment : Past 3 Months Annualized 9% 6% 6% 3% 3% -3% -3% -6% -6% -9% -9% -12% -12% -15% -15% -18% -18% -21% -21% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 4

5 EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY March 216 Payroll Employment Seasonally Adjusted Number of Jobs (Thousands) Jobs Gained (Thousands) Share of Employment Total Nonfarm Private Sector 1,587 8, % Goods-Producing 1, Construction Mining & Logging % Manufacturing % Service-Providing 7, % Wholesale Trade % Retail Trade 1, % Transportation & Warehousing % Utilities 42. Information % Financial Activities % Professional & Business Services 1, Private Educational Services % Healthcare & Social Assistance 1, % Leisure & Hospitality 1, % Other Services % Government 1, % Federal Government % State Government Local Government 1, % 8% Payroll Employment Past 3 Months Annualized 8% % -8% -12% -12% -16% -16% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 5

6 EMPLOYMENT March 216 Total Nonfarm Employment Seasonally Adjusted Over 3% 2 to 3% 1 to 2% to 1% Below Massachusetts 1.8%.9 26 Ohio Idaho Nebraska Oregon New Hampshire Utah Texas Tennessee New York Washington Vermont Arizona Pennsylvania Georgia Illinois Hawaii Indiana Florida Alabama Nevada Minnesota Virginia South Dakota Colorado Maine South Carolina Iowa California Connecticut.9 15 Delaware Missouri.9 16 North Carolina Montana.7 17 Maryland New Mexico.3 18 Michigan Kansas. 19 Arkansas Oklahoma Kentucky Alaska New Jersey Louisiana Mississippi West Virginia Rhode Island Wyoming Wisconsin North Dakota -4.5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 6

7 UNEMPLOYMENT March 216 Unemployment Rates Seasonally Adjusted Over 6% 5 to 6% 4 to 5% 3 to Below 3% Percent Unemployed Percent Unemployed Maryland 4.7% Tennessee Alaska Oregon West Virginia Wisconsin Illinois Delaware Mississippi Massachusetts New Mexico New Jersey Alabama Oklahoma Louisiana Texas Nevada Montana Washington Missouri South Carolina Arkansas 4. 1 Connecticut Virginia Kentucky Kansas North Carolina Idaho Georgia Iowa California Minnesota Arizona Utah Rhode Island Maine Wyoming Vermont Ohio Hawaii Indiana North Dakota Florida Nebraska Pennsylvania Colorado Michigan New Hampshire New York South Dakota 2.5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 7

8 SELECTED EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS Total Nonfarm Employment Ten-Year Index of Growth, Seasonally Adjusted Payroll Survey Household Survey Mar '6 Mar '8 Mar '1 Mar '12 Mar '14 Mar ' Mar '6 Mar '8 Mar '1 Mar '12 Mar '14 Mar '16 11% Labor Force Dynamics Ten-Year Index of Growth, Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate Unemployed 11% % 9% % 7% % 5% 3% 3% Mar '6 Mar '8 Mar '1 Mar '12 Mar '14 Mar ' Mar '6 Mar '8 Mar '1 Mar '12 Mar '14 Mar '16 18 Labor Force Unemployment Insurance Claims Mar '6 Mar '8 Mar '1 Mar '12 Mar '14 Mar ' Mar '6 Mar '8 Mar '1 Mar '12 Mar '14 Mar '16 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Department of Labor/Haver Analytics 8

9 PERSONAL INCOME 215Q4 Real Personal Income Seasonally Adjusted Over 2.5 to 1 to 2.5% to 1% Below Per Capita Personal Income Per Capita Personal Income 3.6% $48,28 25 Alabama 2.9% $39, , Arkansas ,575 1 California , Indiana ,534 2 Oregon ,48 28 Texas ,931 3 Utah , Louisiana ,721 4 Nevada ,624 3 Rhode Island 2.6 5,653 5 Tennessee , Missouri ,29 6 Georgia ,4 32 Wisconsin ,176 7 Florida , Pennsylvania ,767 8 South Carolina ,5 34 Minnesota 2.5 5,96 9 Hawaii , Ohio ,82 1 Michigan ,19 36 Mississippi ,84 11 Virginia , Connecticut , Arizona , Maine , Kentucky , Vermont 2. 48, North Carolina ,99 4 Idaho , Colorado 3.7 5, Alaska , Illinois 3.7 5, New Mexico , Montana , Kansas ,12 18 Massachusetts , West Virginia , Maryland , Oklahoma.4 44,186 2 Washington , Nebraska.1 48, New Jersey 3.3 6, South Dakota , New Hampshire , Wyoming , Delaware , Iowa , New York ,513 5 North Dakota ,841 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics 9

10 SELECTED INCOME INDICATORS 1 Nominal Personal Income Contributions to, Seasonally Adjusted 1 5% 4. 5% -5% -5% -1 1 '1Q4 '11Q4 '12Q4 '13Q4 '14Q4 '15Q % 2.5% 5% -5% -5% -1 '1Q4 '11Q4 '12Q4 '13Q4 '14Q4 '15Q4 Contributions to Social Insurance Transfer Payments Dividends, Interest & Rent Residence Adjustment Earnings by Place of Work Total Personal Income -1 $26 Real Hourly Wage (Current $ ) Real Average Hourly Wage Seasonally Adjusted $26 $25 $25 2% 2% $24 $24 $23 $23-2% -2% $22 $22 Mar '11 Mar '12 Mar '13 Mar '14 Mar '15 Mar ' Mar '11 Mar '12 Mar '13 Mar '14 Mar '15 Mar '16 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 1

11 HOME PRICES 215Q4 FHFA Purchase-Only Home Price Index Seasonally Adjusted Over to 1 5 to 7.5% 2.5 to 5% to 2.5% Below 5.8% 25 Kansas Rhode Island Nevada New Hampshire Colorado Ohio Idaho Nebraska Washington Iowa Oregon Massachusetts Florida Delaware Arizona Indiana 4. 8 Hawaii North Dakota 4. 9 Utah Vermont Texas South Dakota Tennessee Wisconsin South Carolina Montana California Pennsylvania West Virginia Wyoming North Carolina Illinois Georgia Alaska Michigan Maryland Minnesota New York Oklahoma Virginia Maine New Jersey Louisiana Arkansas Missouri New Mexico Kentucky Alabama.9 24 Mississippi Connecticut.1 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)/Haver Analytics 11

12 SELECTED HOUSING INDICATORS 14 FHFA Purchase-Only Home Price Index Ten-Year Index of Growth, Seasonally Adjusted '5Q4 '7Q4 '9Q4 '11Q4 '13Q4 '15Q4 Colorado Kansas Missouri Nebraska 8 8 '5Q4 '7Q4 '9Q4 '11Q4 '13Q4 '15Q4 New Mexico Oklahoma Wyoming Single Family Feb '6 Feb '8 Feb '1 Feb '12 Feb '14 Feb '16 Housing Permits Ten-Year Index of Growth, Seasonally Adjusted Multifamily Feb '6 Feb '8 Feb '1 Feb '12 Feb '14 Feb ' % 11% 1 9% 8% Rental Vacancy Rates 12% 11% 1 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% '5Q4 '7Q4 '9Q4 '11Q4 '13Q4 '15Q4 Note: Rental Vacancy Rates are not available for the. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) & Census Bureau/Haver Analytics 12

13 Manufacturing Surveys Seasonally Adjusted MANUFACTURING Diffusion Indexes Over to 54 5 to to 5 Below 48 Not Applicable 7 ISM Composite Index Empire State Survey (New York ) Mar '6 Mar '8 Mar '1 Mar '12 Mar '14 Mar ' Mar '6 Mar '8 Mar '1 Mar '12 Mar '14 Mar '16 7 Kansas City Manufacturing Survey 7 7 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Mar '6 Mar '8 Mar '1 Mar '12 Mar '14 Mar ' Richmond Manufacturing Survey Texas Manufacturing Survey (Dallas ) Mar '6 Mar '8 Mar '1 Mar '12 Mar '14 Mar '16 Note: Indices are defined to be between and 1; above 5 indicates growth and below 5 indicates contraction. Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) & Federal Reserve District Banks/Haver Analytics Mar '6 Mar '8 Mar '1 Mar '12 Mar '14 Mar ' Mar '6 Mar '8 Mar '1 Mar '12 Mar '14 Mar '

14 Current Activity vs. a Month Ago Seasonally Adjusted Diffusion Index KANSAS CITY DISTRICT MANUFACTURING Composite Index Production Volume of New Orders Number of Employees Supplier Delivery Time Raw Materials Inventories Volume of Shipments January 216 February 216 March Backlog of Orders Average Employee Prices Received for Workweek Finished Products Prices Paid for Raw Materials New Orders for Exports Finished Goods Inventories Expectations Six-Months Ahead Seasonally Adjusted Diffusion Index Composite Index Production Volume of New Orders Number of Employees Supplier Delivery Time Raw Materials Inventories Volume of Shipments Backlog of Orders Average Employee Workweek Note: Indices above zero indicate expansion. Prices Received for Finished Product Prices Paid for Raw Materials Capital Expenditures New Orders for Exports Finished Goods Inventories -3 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City/Haver Analytics 14

15 OIL & GAS March 216 Active Oil & Gas Drilling Rig Counts Over 2 1 to 2 5 to 1 1 to 5 2,5 2, 1,5 Average Rig Counts During the Month % Current Share of Activity % Top Producing States Texas Oklahoma Lousiana North Dakota Pennsylvania Colorado New Mexico Alaska West Virginia Ohio Ten-Year History of Most Active States Average Active Monthly Drilling Rig Counts Texas Oklahoma Lousiana North Dakota 1, 5 1, 5 Pennsylvania Colorado New Mexico Alaska 5 '6 '11 '16 '6 '11 '16 '6 '11 '16 '6 '11 '16 '6 '11 '16 Source: Baker Hughes/Haver Analytics 15

16 SELECTED ENERGY INDICATORS $15 $125 Crude Oil Price per Barrel Spot Prices West Texas Intermediate $15 $ U.S. Supply/Demand Dynamics Seasonally Adjusted Crude Oil Million Barrels/Day 25 2 $1 $75 $1 $ Demand for Petroleum Products Crude Oil Production 15 1 $5 $5 5 5 $25 $25 Apr '6 Apr '8 Apr '1 Apr '12 Apr '14 Apr '16 Jan '6 Jan '8 Jan '1 Jan '12 Jan '14 Jan '16 $4.5 $4. $3.5 $3. $2.5 $2. $1.5 $15 $12 Gasoline Natural Gas Liquids Price per Gallon at the Pump Million Barrels/Month * Natural Gas Natural Gas Price per Thousand Cubic Feet Trillion Cubic Feet/Month Henry Hub $4.5 $4. $3.5 $3. $2.5 $2. $1.5 $1. $1. Apr '6 Apr '8 Apr '1 Apr '12 Apr '14 Apr '16 $15 $ Jan '6 Jan '8 Jan '1 Jan '12 Jan '14 Jan ' Field Production Consumption Supply & Disposition Consumption $9 $ $6 $ $3 $ $ $ Apr '6 Apr '8 Apr '1 Apr '12 Apr '14 Apr ' Jan '6 Jan '8 Jan '1 Jan '12 Jan '14 Jan '16 *Average price per gallon for major metro areas. Source: Wall Street Journal, Oil & Gas Journal & Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration/Haver Analytics 16

17 COAL March 216 Coal Production Seasonally Adjusted Thousands of Short Tons Over 2, 1, to 2, 5, to 1, 1, to 5, to 1, Not Applicable Monthly Production (Thousand Short Tons) 51, % Current Share of Production * 24, % Top Producing States Wyoming 21, West Virginia 5, Kentucky 3, Illinois 3, Montana 2, Pennsylvania 2, Indiana 2, Texas 1, North Dakota 1, Colorado 1, Ten-Year History of Top Producing States, Monthly Production, Thousand Short Tons 125, 1, Wyoming West Virginia Kentucky Illinois 75, 5, 25, Montana Pennsylvania Indiana Texas '6 '11 '16 '6 '11 '16 '6 '11 '16 '6 '11 '16 *Includes all states but Nebraska. Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration/Haver Analytics '6 '11 '16 17

18 AGRICULTURE Farm Land Values* Over 1 5 to 1 to 5% Below Not Available Farmland Values by Federal Reserve District Chicago: Value of "Good" Farmland Dallas: Dryland Values % '16Q1-3. '15Q4-1 '5Q4 '7Q4 '9Q4 '11Q4 '13Q4 '15Q4-1 '6Q1 '8Q1 '1Q1 '12Q1 '14Q1 '16Q1 3 Kansas City: Nonirrigated Farmland Values % '15Q4-1 '5Q4 '7Q4 '9Q4 '11Q4 '13Q4 '15Q4 *Values shown for the most recent survey available for each district. Source: Federal Reserve District Banks/Haver Analytics 18

19 4 2 Kansas City Agricultural Credit Survey Diffusion Index* SELECTED AGRICULTURAL INDICATORS '15Q2 '15Q3 '15Q Demand for Loans Loan Fund Availability Loan Repayment Rates Renewals or Extensions Collateral Required -86 Farm Income Household Spending -75 Capital Spending Farmland Values '15Q2 '15Q3 '15Q4 1.2% -3.7% -1.7% -1 Nonirrigated Farmland Irrigated Farmland Ranchland -1 $2 $15 Spot Prices Corn Wheat Soybeans $2 $ Farm Income Ten-Year Index of Growth 25 2 $1 $ $5 $5 1 1 $ $ Feb '6 Feb '8 Feb '1 Feb '12 Feb '14 Feb ' '5Q4 '7Q4 '9Q4 '11Q4 '13Q4 '15Q4 *Calculated as the percentage of total respondents reporting increases less those reporting declines. Source: Wall Street Journal, Bureau of Economic Analysis & Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City/Haver Analytics 19

20 EXPORTS 215Q4 U.S. Exports Year-to-Date Change (Millions of Dollars) Over $5, $1, to $5, $ to $1, -$1, to $ Below -$1, Not Applicable Exports Year-to-Date (Billions of Dollars) Year-to-Date $1,485, % Share of Exports Year-to-Date Top Export Markets Canada % Mexico % China* % Japan % United Kingdom % Germany Netherlands Antilles % South Korea % Belgium % France $45 Ten-Year History of U.S. Top Export Countries Billions in Quarterly Exports $4 $35 Canada Mexico China* Japan $1 $5 $3 $ $25 $2 $15 Total U.S. Exports Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics United Kingdom Germany Netherlands Antilles Belgium France Singapore $1 '5 '1 '15 '5 '1 '15 '5 '1 '15 '5 '1 '15 *Includes China, Hong Kong, Taiwan & Macao. South Korea $5 $ $5 Brazil $ '5 '1 '15 2

21 NOTES Page 2 : Gross domestic product (GDP) is the most commonly used measure of aggregate U.S. economic activity. Real GDP is indexed for inflation to 29 dollars using the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCEPI). Advance, second, and third GDP estimates are released during the first, second, and third month of the following quarter. Each release reflects more complete information. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) projections for GDP are released quarterly. Contributions to GDP show how each component of GDP contributes to GDP growth. Tenth District GDP is the year-over-year percent change for the sum of the Gross State Products from CO, KS, MO, NE, NM, OK and WY. Page 3 : Inflation is calculated as the year-over-year change in price indices. Headline inflation includes all price components, while core inflation excludes the more volatile components of food and energy. Producer prices reflect price changes in production components, while PCEPI and CPI-U (consumer price index for all urban consumers) estimates show changes in commodities sold to consumers. Pages 4, 5 and 6 : Nonfarm employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Survey are commonly called "Payroll" employment data. Estimates from this survey are revised throughout the year and a major revision or "benchmark" of the data occurs in March of each year. Page 7 : The "official" and most commonly reported unemployment rate is calculated as the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. These data are reported from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey, commonly called the "Household" survey. Page 8 : "Payroll" and "Household" surveys are released monthly, providing the most current estimates of employment published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Because methodologies differ between surveys, employment estimates also differ. For more information, visit: Initial claims show monthly applications for initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits. Pages 9 and 1 : Personal income provides a measure of all income received by residents of a given geographic area. Data shown on page 9 are in real terms (adjusted for inflation) and data on page 1 are shown in nominal terms (not adjusted for inflation). Transfer payments include social benefits such as unemployment insurance, Social Security, and Medicaid. Contributions to social insurance are subtracted from personal income. These contributions include taxes paid by businesses and employees that support social insurance programs such as unemployment insurance, Social Security, and Medicaid. The residence adjustment adds income received outside of a recipients state of residence and makes a corresponding subtraction from the area where this income was earned or received. Real average hourly wages are calculated as total earnings divided by total employment for a given geographic area. Data are adjusted for inflation using the CPI-U and are indexed to the most current month of data. Pages 11 and 12 : Home price indices estimate regional growth in home values based on repeat sales data for detached single family residential properties. Page 12 : Monthly single and multifamily housing permits data are not revised and therefore may not sum to published year-end totals. Page 13 : The ISM composite index, also commonly called the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), represents a weighted average of diffusion indices for new orders, production, supplier deliveries, inventories, and employment. Federal Reserve district surveys differ slightly in methodologies for composite indices. Page 14 : Kansas City Manufacturing Survey diffusion indices are calculated as the percentage of total respondents reporting increases in activity less those reporting declines. Page 15: The active rig count is the number of rigs actively exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. Rig counts provide an indicator of new drilling activity and potential for expanded crude oil or natural gas production. Page 16 : A spot price is the current market delivery price of a given commodity. Page 17 : Coal production is shown as production during a given month. Pages 18 and 19 : Farmland values surveyed differ across Federal Reserve districts. Page 2 : Exports measure the total physical movement of a given product from the to a foreign country. Data Revisions Most data are revised periodically to correct for errors and incorporate additional information as it becomes available. Data shown in this report are subject to change. Seasonal Adjustments Most data are seasonally adjusted to remove variance caused by seasonal fluctuations in economic activity. Data in this report show the seasonal adjustments of data publishers where available. In other cases, Census X-12 adjustments were applied. Additional Resources Available Agricultural Surveys Economic Research Manufacturing Surveys Educational Tools Regional Economic Analysis Energy Survey Banker Resources Speeches Economic Indicators Visit: 21