Self-Storage Investment Trends to Watch. April 16, 2015

Transcription

1 Self-Storage Investment Trends to Watch April 16, 2015

2 Economic Outlook Underpins Self-Storage Sector

3 Hiring Makes Steady Gains Supports Broader Economic Performance Quarterly Job Growth (Millions) Forecast: 3.1 Million Million -8.7 Million +8.2 Million Million** * * Forecast ** Through March Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS

4 U.S. Employment Gains Broad-Based Y-O-Y Sector Change Through March 2015 U.S. Employment Sectors Absolute Change % Change Prof. & Business Services 662, % Trade, Transport & Utilities 607, % Education and Health Services 541, % Leisure & Hospitality 490, % Construction 282, % Manufacturing 188, % Financial Activities 150, % Other Services 73, % Government 72, % Information 59, % Natural Resources & Mining 4, % Net Change 3,128, % Sources: Marcus && Millichap Research Services, BLS BLS

5 National Employment Rank by Metro Y-O-Y Absolute Change Through February 2015 Top 10 Metros Absolute Change Percent Change Bottom 10 Metros Absolute Change Percent Change Dallas-Ft. Worth 132, % Atlanta 113, % New York 106, % Houston 97, % Los Angeles 94, % Chicago 67, % Phoenix 62, % Seattle 58, % Inland Empire 57, % Denver 55, % U.S. Total 3,227, % Milwaukee 8, % Cleveland 10, % St. Louis 13, % Jacksonville 14, % Cincinnati 18, % Palm Beach 21, % Oakland 25, % Columbus 25, % Las Vegas 26, % Austin 27, % U.S. Total 3,227, % Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS

6 Confidence Rising Will Support Economic Momentum Consumer Confidence Small Business Optimism Consumer Confidence Index Small Business Optimism Index * * Consumer confidence through March; small business optimism through February Index: December 2002 = 100 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, The Conference Board, NFIB

7 U.S. Core Retail Sales Building Steady Momentum - Growth Lifting Economy 8% $ Year Average: 4.2% $980/person Year-Over-Year Change 4% 0% -4% Retail Sales ($ Bil.) $310 $270 $230 $869/person +19% -8% Recession * $ * * Through March Core retail sales excludes auto and gasoline sales Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau

8 Economic Outlook Underpins Self-Storage Sector

9 Emerging Housing and Migration Patterns Influence Self-Storage

10 Home Completions (Mil.) and Household Growth (Mil.) Plunge in Home Construction Supports Housing Recovery Single-Family Construction Multifamily Construction Household Growth Oversupply: 3.5M * Forecast Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau * Undersupply: 2.8M *

11 Single-Family Housing and Condo Market Pushing Toward Pre-Recession Values Median Home Prices Existing Home Sales $250 Single-Family Condo Y-O-Y Change 650 Single-Family and Condo Median Price (000s) $225 $200 $175 +8% +3% Home Sales (000s) Y-O-Y Change +5% $ * * * Through February Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, National Association of Realtors

12 2014 Residential Migration Trends Top 5 Destinations Departures Bottom 5 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, United Van Lines Migration Study

13 National Metro Ranking Absolute Population Growth 10-Year Forecast* Top 10 Markets Population Growth Percent Change Bottom 10 Markets Population Growth Percent Change Dallas-Ft. Worth 1,467, % Phoenix 1,163, % Houston 1,111, % Atlanta 1,046, % Los Angeles 842, % Orlando 691, % Washington, D.C. 643, % Inland Empire 591, % Las Vegas 555, % Austin 509, % U.S. Total 27,700, % Cleveland -57, % Detroit -40, % Milwaukee 33, % Cincinnati 133, % Columbus 161, % Philadelphia 169, % Kansas City 179, % San Francisco 185, % Indianapolis 202, % San Jose 212, % U.S. Total 27,700, % * 1Q Q 2025 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau

14 Emerging Housing and Migration Patterns Influence Self-Storage

15 Capital Markets

16 Inflation Generating Little Pressure 10-Year Treasury Range-Bound 4% Core Inflation 10-Year Avg. Core Inflation 10-Year Treasury 10-Year Avg. 10-Year Treasury 3.39% 3% Rate 2% 1.91% 1% 10-Year Average Core Inflation: 1.91% 0% 10-Year Treasury: 3.39% * * Core inflation through February 2015; 10-year Treasury through April 6, 2015 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Federal Reserve, BLS

17 10-Year Treasury Rates by Country Country 10-Year Treasury Rate* Germany 0.2% Japan 0.4% France 0.5% Canada 1.4% United Kingdom 1.6% United States 1.9% Australia 2.4% China 3.7% Russia 11.7% Brazil 12.8% * As of April 8, 2015 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Trading Economics

18 Commercial Real Estate Lender Composition by Percent of Total Dollar Volume 100% Percent of Total Dollar Volume 75% 50% 25% 31% 27% 28% 12% 13% 13% 8% 8% 7% 9% 11% 11% 17% 16% 22% 20% 15% 13% 18% 16% 14% 18% 7% 8% 15% 13% 27% 23% 12% 11% Gov't Agency National Bank International Bank Regional/Local Bank CMBS Insurance Financial Private/Other 0% 5% 2% 5% 1% 5% 7% 9% 1% 1% 1% Includes sales of properties $2.5 million and greater Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Real Capital Analytics

19 Capital Markets

20 Self-Storage Performance

21 U.S. Commercial Property Vacancy Trends 20% 17.9% * 17.1% Average Vacancy Rate 15% 10% 5% 11.5% 8.0% 4.8% 8.1% 6.0% 14.5% 10.5% 6.5% 0% Self-Storage Apartment Retail Office Industrial * Forecast Source: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, MPF Research, CoStar Group, Inc., Reis Services, LLC

22 National Self-Storage Vacancy and Rent Trends $1.8 Asking Rent - Climate Controlled Asking Rent - Not Climate Controlled Vacancy 20% Asking Rent per Square Foot $1.6 $1.4 $1.2 16% 12% 8% Average Vacancy Rate $ * * Forecast Rent for 10X10 unit Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis Services, LLC 4%

23 National Self-Storage Rank by Metro 2014 Vacancy Rate Top 10 Markets 2014 Vacancy Y-O-Y Bps Chg. San Francisco 7.3% -140 San Jose 7.3% -40 Oakland 8.9% -290 Denver 9.8% -50 San Diego 9.8% -310 Los Angeles 10.0% -240 Portland 10.2% -260 Miami 10.3% -30 Dallas-Ft. Worth 10.5% -150 Kansas City 10.6% -330 U.S. Average 12.0% -150 Bottom 10 Markets 2014 Vacancy Y-O-Y Bps Chg. Phoenix 17.1% -100 Las Vegas 16.4% -170 Inland Empire 15.6% -320 Columbus 13.8% 20 Orlando 13.6% -320 Minneapolis 13.1% -10 Atlanta 12.9% -270 Sacramento 12.9% -350 Detroit 12.8% -240 Tampa 12.8% -220 U.S. Average 12.0% -150 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis Services, LLC

24 Self-Storage Performance

25 Self-Storage Investment

26 CRE Investor Sentiment Index Has Been a Strong Indicator of CRE Capital Flows CRE Sales Volume CRE Investor Sentiment $ Total Sales Volume (Bil.) $450 $300 $ Investor Sentiment Index $ Includes all apartment, office, retail, and industrial sales $1 million and greater Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics, M&M/NREI Investor Survey

27 Self-Storage Price and Cap Rate Trends Average Price Average Cap Rate $80 10% Average Price Square Foot $70 $60 $50 9% 8% 7% Average Cap Rate $ * 6% * Preliminary estimate through 1Q Includes sales $1 million and greater Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc.

28 Self-Storage Cap Rate Trends by Class and Market Type* Primary Secondary Tertiary Average Class A 4.5% - 5.5% 5.5% % 6.5% - 7.5% 6.1% Class B 5.5% - 7.0% 6.5% - 7.5% 7.5% - 8.5% 6.8% Class C 6.5% - 8.0% 7.0% - 9.0% 8.0% % 7.8% Average 6.0% 6.9% 7.8% 6.6% * Trailing 12-month through 1Q 2015 Sources: Marcus && Millichap Research Services, CoStar BLSGroup, Inc.

29 Self-Storage Cap Rate vs. 10-Year Treasury Self-Storage Cap Rate 10-Year Treasury Rate 10.0% Cap Rate Long-Term Average Average Rate 7.5% 5.0% 2.5% 0.0% 520 bps bps 10-Yr. Treasury Long-Term Average * Through March 6 Includes sales $1 million and greater Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Federal Reserve 580 bps 470 bps *

30 U.S. Commercial Property Cap Rate Trends 12% Change From Prior Cyclical Low -30 bps +10 bps -10 bps +30 bps +30 bps 9% Average Cap Rate 6% 3% 0% Self-Storage Apartment Retail Office Industrial Source: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics

31 Self-Storage Investment

32 Self-Storage Investment Trends to Watch April 16, 2015