Williamson County, Texas Changing Demographics and Implications of Growth April 22, 2014

Transcription

1 Williamson County, Texas Changing Demographics and Implications of Growth April 22, 2014

2 Presentation Overview 1. How fast is Williamson growing? 2. Where are people coming from? 3. How is the population changing? 4. What challenges are we facing? 2

3 Growth 3

4 Austin-Round Rock ranks #2 nationally in total economic growth since % Real Annual GDP Growth, % 6% Austin MSA 4% 2% US (MSA) 0% -2% -4% -6% Austin MSA Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 47% between 2001 and 2012, second only to Houston MSA among metro areas with $50 billion or more Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data adjusted for inflation (2013 Dollars). 4

5 Austin-Round Rock ranks #1 nationally in job growth since recession Rank Metro Area Employment Dec 2013 Job Growth Jun 09-Dec 13 Rate 1 Austin 863, , % 2 Nashville 819,600 98, % 3 San Jose 951,800 96, % 4 Houston 2,812, , % 5 Charlotte 889,600 84, % 6 Dallas 3,135, , % 7 Salt Lake City 662,100 54, % 8 Oklahoma City 616,800 49, % 9 Raleigh 538,100 41, % 10 Denver 1,288,700 92, % Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, Total Non-Farm Employment, Seasonally Adjusted. Rank is among metro areas (MSA) with employment of 500,000 or more. 5

6 Williamson County Growth Highlights 3 of top 10 fastest growing cities with 50K+ pop in Texas since 2010 (%): Cedar Park (#1), Georgetown (#4), Round Rock (#10) Growing by about 16,000 people per year; 30 net movers per day Housing units up 85% since 2000 (34% in Travis County) Source: Texas State Data Center, U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, 2000 & 2010 Census. 6

7 Williamson County playing an increasingly prominent role in regional growth 90% 80% 70% 60% Share of MSA Population, Travis County 74% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 32% 26% 25% 10% 0% Williamson County 9% Source: US Census Bureau & Ryan Robinson, City Demographer, Department of Planning, City of Austin. January

8 Migration 8

9 Net gain from 103 counties in other states and 51 counties in Texas 2010 Source: Internal Revenue Service. Map by Forbes showing net migration of tax filers (# of exemptions) to Williamson County in 2010 tax year.

10 2010 Source: Internal Revenue Service. Map by Forbes showing net migration of tax filers (# of exemptions) to Wayne County in 2010 tax year.

11 2006 Source: Internal Revenue Service. Map by Forbes showing net migration of tax filers (# of exemptions) to Orleans Parish in 2006 tax year.

12 Most people moving to WC are from Texas & usually Travis County Texas HHs 2010 HH Inc 2010 Travis County 7,951 $45,828 Harris County 488 $51,911 Bell County 470 $43,365 Bexar County 378 $45,293 Hays County 234 $36,636 Tarrant County 232 $48,586 Dallas County 219 $50,547 Bastrop County 174 $33,114 Collin County 141 $65,652 Burnet County 129 $45,232 Rest of U.S. HHs 2010 HH Inc 2010 Maricopa County, AZ 173 $61,462 Los Angeles County, CA 141 $43,964 San Diego County, CA 115 $54,608 Orange County, CA 100 $52,520 Clark County, NV 93 $38,333 Cook County, IL 80 $43,500 Santa Clara County, CA 51 $63,745 Riverside County, CA 48 $46,062 Sacramento County, CA 43 $50,651 Pima County, AZ 42 $43,285 Source: Internal Revenue Service. Tax returns used as proxy for households. HH income is adjusted gross income per return tax year. Nonmigrant HH income in Williamson County in 2010 was $65,

13 Housing affordability undoubtedly a key driver of migration to WC Median Rent Per Sq Ft Source: Zillow., US Census Bureau, ACS Median list prices in February YoY is % change since February Median multiple is the ratio of median household income to median home price and is presented here for a hypothetical 1,800 sq ft house. Historical average is 3.0. YoY Median Buy Per Sq Ft YoY Median Multiple Austin $ % $165 13% 5.7 Cedar Park $0.91-4% $123 13% 2.9 Georgetown $0.91 2% $123 3% 3.5 Leander $0.75 4% $107 11% 2.7 Round Rock $0.86-5% $105 12% 2.7 Liberty Hill N/A N/A $105 6% 3.0 Pflugerville $0.90 8% $100 16% 2.4 Hutto $0.69-8% $95 14% 2.7 Taylor N/A N/A $77 3% 3.0 Williamson County $0.93-1% $112 10%

14 A tale of two California invasions: middle-income vs. high-income Other State County To Williamson HHs 2010 HH Inc 2010 Maricopa, AZ 173 $61,462 Los Angeles, CA 141 $43,964 San Diego, CA 115 $54,608 Orange, CA 100 $52,520 Clark, NV 93 $38,333 Cook, IL 80 $43,500 Santa Clara, CA 51 $63,745 Riverside, CA 48 $46,062 Sacramento, CA 43 $50,651 Pima, AZ 42 $43,285 Other State County To Travis HHs 2010 HH Inc 2010 Los Angeles, CA 537 $75,657 Cook, IL 369 $48,444 Maricopa, AZ 301 $47,086 San Diego, CA 267 $52,880 New York, NY 238 $84,819 King, WA 204 $65,774 Clark, NV 193 $41,217 Orange, CA 181 $78,850 Santa Clara, CA 175 $112,885 Kings, NY 166 $48,325 Source: Internal Revenue Service. Tax returns used as proxy for households. HH income is adjusted gross income per return tax year. 14

15 Will 2014 be a tipping point w/ more people moving to WC than TC? 25,000 20,000 15,000 Net Migration (People) to Williamson and Travis Counties, ,049 22,854 Travis County Williamson County 13,434 10,000 10,754 9,946 11,047 5, Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates. 15

16 Change/Challenge 16

17 Living wage job growth will be critical for incomes to keep pace w/ cost of living Per Capita Income (US=100) Travis Williamson Hays 50 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. 17

18 Education inequality & workforce preparation are most serious threats to WC s future prosperity % Pop Age 25+ w/ No Completed Postsecondary Degree, 2012 Hispanic/Latino 72% Black 60% White 50% 52% of Williamson County s primary working age (25-64) residents have no completed postsecondary degree. Asian 27% 1 out of 2 new residents will be Hispanic over next 20 yrs. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Three-Year Estimates. Postsecondary degree includes associate s degree or higher. Population projections from Texas State Data Center using the migration rate scenario. 18

19 Can WC leverage growth opportunities to achieve inclusive wealth creation? Population by Race/Ethnicity in Williamson County, 2012 % Population < 125% Poverty Average Wage White 63% 7% $57,015 Hispanic/Latino 24% 17% $37,053 Black 6% 18% $37,392 Asian 5% 11% $67,131 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS Five-Year Estimates, Quarterly Workforce Indicators. 19

20 Summary 1. Growth & urbanization represent opportunities and challenges for Williamson County 2. Strong foundation for promoting inclusive economic development w/ committed partnerships 3. Become the new home of big ideas in Central Texas 20

21 Brian Kelsey, Principal & Founder 7600 Burnet Road, Suite 108 Austin, Texas