Southern California International Trade Outlook

Transcription

1 Southern California International Trade Outlook LAEDC International Trade Outlook Long Beach, California June 3, 2015 Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist,, LAEDC

2 Outline U.S. & Global Drivers of Trade L.A. County/So. California Regional Economy So. California International Trade Trends Forecasts & Opportunities Ahead

3 U.S. and Global Outlook- Macro Drivers of Trade

4 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Labor Mkts in US & CA Nearly Healed 15.0% Unemployment Rate U.S. CA 5.4% 6.3% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Source: US BLS, CA EDD

5 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 California Adding Jobs Faster than U.S. 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% YTY % change in nonfarm jobs, seasonally adjusted US CA Source: US BLS, CA EDD

6 U.S. Economic Forecast Real GDP - Annual % Chg. Nonfarm Jobs - Annual % Chg f 2016f 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 2.5% 2.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 2.0% 1.7% Unemployment Rate 8.1% 7.4% 6.2% 5.4% 5.1% Consumer Prices - Annual % Chg. 2.1% 1.5% 1.6% 0.3% 2.2% Forecast Source: LAEDC (May 2015)

7 Key Sectors of Macroeconomy Consumer Sector Business Sector Government International Trade

8 Exports, Imports of Goods $ in Trillions (Nominal) Total U.S. Goods Trade Goods Trade as % of GDP Exports (left axis) Imports (left axis) Trade % of GDP (right axis) 23.4% 24.1% 23.0% 30% 25% % 18.4% 20% % % 0.5 5% % Source: BEA

9 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 3.5% Global Economic Outlook GDP, constant prices (percent change) Annual percent growth % 2% 1% 0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.9% -1% World Euro Area Japan Latin/South America Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2015 Developing Asia

10 Value of U.S. Dollar Since 2000 Index (2000 = 100) Canada (C$/US$) China (Yuan/US$) Euro Zone ( /US$) Japan ( /US$) U.K. ( /US$) Source: Federal Reserve Board

11 L.A. County/Southern California Regional Economy

12 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 Local Unemployment Rates 20% Apr 2015 LA - 7.1% OC - 4.1% IE - 6.2% 20% 18% 18% 16% 16% 14% 14% 12% 12% 10% 10% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

13 Major Industries in Southern California TRADED INDUSTRIES (Generate New Income) International Trade Entertainment Business Services Aerospace Fashion & Apparel Tourism Knowledge Creation LOCAL INDUSTRIES (Circulate Income) Retail Sales Leisure & Hospitality Health Care/Social Assistance

14 Job Trends by Industry Los Angeles YTY % change in nonfarm employment by industry, not seasonally adjusted Apr 2015: +109,600 jobs, +2.6% YTY; u-rate: 7.1% Construction Educational Services Wholesale Trade Leisure & Hospitality Information Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Administrative & Support & Waste Services Health Care & Social Assistance Retail Trade Government Financial Activities Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Manufacturing -0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 4.4% 4.3% 3.6% 3.5% 2.9% 2.6% 2.2% 2.1% 6.6% 6.6% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

15 Job Trends by Industry Orange County YTY percent change in nonfarm employment by industry Educational Services Construction Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Nondurable Goods Health Care & Social Assistance Administrative & Support & Waste Services Wholesale Trade Government Leisure & Hospitality Durable Goods Finance & Insurance Retail Trade Information Apr 2015 YTY: +50,500, +3.4%; u-rate: 4.1% -1.6% 6.9% 5.9% 4.8% 4.5% 4.0% 3.4% 2.7% 2.1% 2.1% 1.9% 1.6% 0.8% 9.8% 12.8% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

16 Job Trends by Industry Riverside San Bernardino YTY percent change in nonfarm employment by industry Administrative & Support & Waste Services Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Leisure & Hospitality Wholesale Trade Construction Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Durable Goods Government Educational Services Finance & Insurance Nondurable Goods Health Care & Social Assistance Retail Trade Information Apr 2015 YTY: +52,200, +4.1%; u-rate: 6.2% 0.1% 0.0% 4.7% 4.3% 4.1% 3.6% 3.5% 3.0% 2.6% 2.4% 7.8% 6.7% 6.5% 10.3% 12.6% 0% 5% 10% 15% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

17 Job Trends by Industry Ventura County YTY percent change in nonfarm employment by industry Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Construction Leisure & Hospitality Information Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Government Administrative & Support & Waste Services Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Educational & Health Services Manufacturing Financial Activities Apr 2015 Total: +3,600, +1.2%; u-rate: 5.1% 6.7% -2.0% -2.6% -1.2% 2.0% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 3.1% 3.8% 3.7% 6.6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

18 Southern California Goods Movement Employment Thousands Apr 2015 YTD: +4.7% Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Ventura Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

19 Goods Movement & Trade Employment with employment shares by county Employment, thousands 800 Los Angeles County Orange County Inland Empire Ventura County % 2.9% 16.6% 19.2% 18.5% 18.1% 2.8% 22.1% 16.5% % 59.9% 58.6% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

20 Southern California Goods Movement/Trade Trends

21 Millions of TEUs 10.0 International Container Traffic at Nation s Major Ports New York Los Angeles Long Beach Savannah Oakland Source: Port Statistical Releases

22 '14YTD '15YTD Container Throughput San Pedro Bay Ports Millions of TEUs Apr 2015 YTD: -3.1% Year-to- Date Sources: Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach; forecast by LAEDC

23 San Pedro Ports Dominate Top 10 50% POLA/POLB Containers as a Share of Top Ten Total 48% 46% 44% 42% 40% 38% 36% 34% 32% 44.5% 44.6% 44.1% 45.6% 44.8% 42.8% 41.0% 42.6% 41.8% 42.7% 42.1% 41.8% 30% Source: Port Statistical Releases, Compiled by LAEDC

24 LAX International Cargo Traffic 800 Thousands of tons Arrivals (Imports) Departures (Exports) Source: Los Angeles World Airports

25 Billions USD $500 Value of International Trade at Nation s Leading Customs Districts Los Angeles New York Laredo Detroit Houston $400 $300 $200 $100 $ Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Bureau of the Census

26 LACD Top Trading Partners, 2014 $200 $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Two-way trade values (Billions of U.S. $) $176.1 $40.4 $23.8 China* Japan Korea, South $17.0 $12.9 $11.3 $10.5 $10.0 $9.6 $8.1 Taiwan Vietnam Germany Thailand India Australia Indonesia *China includes the Mainland, Hong Kong and Macau Source: USA Trade Online

27 LACD Top 5 Export Destinations, 2014 $40 Billions of U.S.$ $35.3 $30 $20 $10 $14.7 $11.0 $7.6 $7.5 $0 China* Japan Korea, South Taiwan Australia *China includes the Mainland, Hong Kong and Macau Source: USA Trade Online

28 LACD Top 5 Import Sources, 2014 $160 $140 Billions of U.S.$ $140.9 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $25.7 $12.9 $11.1 $9.5 $0 China* Japan South Korea Vietnam Taiwan *China includes the Mainland, Hong Kong and Macau Source: USA Trade Online

29 LACD Top Exports Ranked by Value, 2014 Computers & Electronics (Measuring Instruments and Semiconductors) Transportation Equipment (Aerospace Products Aircraft Engines and Parts) Chemicals (Organic & Inorganic and Resins) Machinery (Ag & Construction related and Pumps) Food (Meat Frozen Beef) Source: USA Trade Online

30 2014 Exports Through The L.A.C.D. Total Exports: $128.2 Bn Other, 36.5% (Share of Total) Computers, Peripherals, Machinery, Appliances, Parts, 13.3% Electrical Equipment, TVs, Elecontric Parts, 11.1% Aircraft, Spacecraft, Parts, 7.9% Fruits and Nuts, 2.3% Miscellaneous Chemical Products, 2.6% Medical, Surgical, Dental Instruments, 6.8% Natural Pearls, Precious Stones, Metals, 6.4% Meat and Meat Products, 2.7% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Plastics, Items Made of Plastic, 4.9% Motor Vehicles, Parts, 5.5%

31 LACD Top Imports Ranked by Value, 2014 Computers & Electronics (Computers and Semiconductors) Transportation Equipment (Autos and Auto Parts) Apparel (Women s Clothing) Miscellaneous Manufacturing (Toys, Jewelry and Medical Equipment) Electrical Equipment (Appliances) Source: USA Trade Online

32 2014 Imports Entering the L.A.C.D. (Share of Total) Other, 27.4% Total Imports: $379.8 Bn Toys, Games, Sports Equipment, 3.1% Plastics, Plastic Items, 2.7% Computers, Peripherals, Machinery, Appliances, Parts, 18.7% Apparel, Accessories, (Not Knit or Crochet), 3.6% Footwear, Parts, 3.9% Furniture, Bedding, Lamps, 4.0% Apparel, Accessories (Knit or Crochet), 4.8% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Refined Oil Products, Natural Gas, 5.2% Electrical Equipment, TVs, Electronic Parts, 17.6% Motor Vehicles, Parts, 9.0%

33 Los Angeles Metro Area Exports Ranked by Value, 2012 Transportation equipment (aircraft products/parts) Royalties (from film and music) Petroleum Products Precision Instruments Semiconductors Source: Brookings Institution Export Nation

34 Alameda Corridor Train Counts 25 Number of trains, thousands Source: Alameda Corridor Transportation Authority

35 16% 14% 12% Industrial Vacancy Rates Los Angeles County Orange County Inland Empire 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1q07 1q08 1q09 1q10 1q11 1q12 1q13 1q14 1q15 Source: Cushman and Wakefield

36 Warehouse/Distribution Rental Rates $0.80 Los Angeles County Orange County Inland Empire $0.70 $0.60 $0.50 $0.40 $0.30 $0.20 1q07 1q08 1q09 1q10 1q11 1q12 1q13 1q14 1q15 Source: Cushman and Wakefield

37 Forecast

38 U.S. & Global Outlook Real % Changes (Inflation-Adjusted) U.S. GDP 2.2% 2.4% 2.5% 2.8% World Output 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.8% US Goods Exports 2.8% 4.0% 0.0% 5.1% US Goods Imports 0.9% 4.1% 4.5% 6.9% Sources: LAEDC except Global Output (IMF, April 2015)

39 Southern California Trade Outlook LACD Two-Way Trade ($ billions) $414.5 $416.6 $416.7 $439.7 % Change 2.7% 0.5% 0.02% 5.5% San Pedro Ports TEUs (millions) % Change 3.4% 3.8% 0.5% 2.4% Sources: LAEDC

40 Challenges & Opportunities: US Trade CHALLENGES Rising $ -> Higher Export Prices -> Weaker Real Exports OPPORTUNTIES Rising $ -> Lower Import Prices - > Stronger Real Imports Near-Term Weakness Among Trade Partners Limits Exports Long-Term Growth of Developing Economies & Rising Living Standards Imply LR Export Potential High Labor Costs Lower Energy Costs & Made in U.S.A.

41 Challenges & Opportunities: Ports CHALLENGES Port Competition Freeway Congestion Limited Industrial Space Labor-Automation Tradeoff Port-Related Pollution OPPORTUNTIES Big Ship Ready, Efficient Alameda Corridor Think Regional IE Answer? Global Leaders in Adoption of Pollution Mitigation Efforts & Technology Growth of Trade US & Global!!!

42 Southern California International Trade Outlook Thank You!