Top Ten Emerging Industries of the Future

Transcription

1 Top Ten Emerging Industries of the Future The $20 Trillion Opportunity that will Transform Future Businesses and Societies P6E3-MT October

2 Contents Section Slide Number Executive Summary 5 Research Scope, Background, and Methodology 11 Definitions and Evaluation Criteria to Determine Top Industries 15 Alternative Energy 24 Big Data Analytics 35 Cloud Computing 47 Connected Living 58 Cyber Security 76 Mobile Robotics 89 Online Retail 105 Urban Logistics 123 Waste to Energy 137 3D Printing 150 Top Mature Industries 164 Conclusions & Recommendations 173 Appendix 178 4

3 Executive Summary Key Takeaways Top Ten Emerging Industries: Key Takeaways, Global, Widespread automation has eliminated physical and mundane tasks. Companies will have to factor in newer technologies and services, improved connectivity, and advances in analytics to redefine the scope of their work in the future. 2 Policy decision makers and government institutions will look to make use of the rapid development of technology by deploying the Internet of Things to improve their operating and infrastructural efficiencies and to find newer ways of measuring the growth and development of their economies. They will also look to enhance public welfare by providing better education and healthcare facilities By 2020, as software technologies and connectivity become more pervasive, a smart and digitalized world is inevitable: There will be billion smart phone users, 80 billion devices, billion mobile app downloads, billion subscribed location-based services, and an augmented reality market that is expected to be valued at $ billion. Firms will be forced to change their existing business models to adopt a more consumer-centric approach to include quick resolutions and real-time information and price discovery, as expectations of consumers in a digital world will increase. Governments and firms will need to balance utility derived from mass exodus of information with managing privacy by coming up with better regulations, standardizations and controls, as billions of people share information, socialize, and transact through the Internet. 6

4 Executive Summary Key Findings on Top 10 Industries Mega Trend Key Findings, Global, Online B2B Bricks and Clicks will become the retailing norm of the future, with every retailer expected to have an online identity as well as provide a brick and mortar experience by The online retail sales is expected to reach $ trillion by 2020 resulting in the emergence of virtual stores, virtual hypermarkets, interactive stores, and Click and Collect retailing models. More businesses and suppliers will move to online marketplaces from traditional Electronic Data Interchanges (EDIs) creating an online B2B retail market worth $ trillion by 2020, six times the estimated market potential of B2C retail. Big Data Analytics A new breed of data analytics leading to more informed and strategic decisions will capture more than $ trillion in value through new revenue streams in the next couple of years. Exploding digital content could mandate big data with predictive analytics that can bring a significant improvement of % to % in the user company s ROI. The big data market will transform by moving from intuitive analysis to predictive analysis to cognitive analysis with the increase in structured data by Connected Living The connected living market comprising connected home, work, and city solutions is expected to reach $ billion by 2020, with connected city accounting for over % of the market as the need for intelligent infrastructure and automation increases. Connected devices will proliferate in every aspect of life, with an average digital native expected to have at least connected devices at home, more than enterprise-enabled work devices, and access to over 80 billion devices in their environment through the Internet of Things. 7

5 Executive Summary Key Findings on Top 10 Industries (continued) Mega Trend Key Findings, Global, Cloud Computing The cloud computing market is expected to reach $ billion by Cost-effectiveness and scalability of the cloud are key factors driving its use among enterprises with many businesses, particularly in the United States and the United Kingdom, keen on employing cloud solutions. The future of cloud computing will witness software moving away totally from hardware, as more technologies are incorporated as a service resulting in a better processing space to perform speedy analytics and computation. Urban Logistics Urban Logistics spending will more than double to $ trillion over the next decade, with transport and distribution accounting for the majority of costs. A minimum of million deliveries will be made within cities by 2025, as more than % of the world s population will live in cities. Logistics service providers will offer unique urban logistics solutions including targeted deliveries, hybrid fleets, and bundling of consignments, smart trucks, and advanced warehouse management systems. Waste to Energy Waste generation will reach billion tons by 2025 as a result of excessive consumption of goods and high urbanization. By 2020, rapidly growing waste volume and awareness of waste treatment options are expected to increase market attractiveness for waste management services. The global market benefits from a shift from landfilling to recycling, biological treatment, and incineration with energy recovery, all of which reduce environmental impact and address a critical need for materials recovery. APAC is expected to present many market opportunities, especially with evolving waste treatment practices and China s rapidly increasing demands. 8

6 Executive Summary Key Findings on Top 10 Industries (continued) Mega Trend Key Findings, Global, Mobile Robotics Robots will have significant impacts on many industries and the robotics market is all set to reach $ billion in revenue, with close to million robots likely to be produced by Future robots can potentially be used in areas as varied as healthcare, hazardous and complex situations, enabling smart manufacturing of electronics or other smart structures, and so on. The industry will move towards adaptable robots that can adjust to varying conditions, which will result in creating a market for personal robots used for household and domestic activities. With the emergence of technologies such as Artificial Intelligence, Augmented Reality, and Autonomous World, the robotics market will radically change in the future. Cyber Security By 2020, the cyber security market is expected to be $ billion with data security and security operations likely to generate the bulk of the revenue. Changing regulation compliance frameworks and lack of internal expertise will result in organizations offering end-to-end managed security services. Defense primes will dominate the military space due to the security clearance needed and architectural knowledge of deployed systems. 3D Printing 3D Printing will transform the future of manufacturing with its ability to eliminate time consuming techniques such as cutting or drilling. With the computer driven additive manufacturing technology, industries can expect to save up to % in prototyping costs. The global 3D printing market in 2025 is expected to reach a revenue potential of $ billion. Consumer and commercial products are expected to account for % of the 3D printing market by 2025, which is expected to grow at a CAGR of % between 2009 and The 3D Printing market is likely to create new business models such as in-house 3D Printing, Retail 3D Printing, and 3D Printing as a service. 9

7 Executive Summary Key Findings on Top 10 Industries (continued) Mega Trend Key Findings, Global, Alternative Energy By 2030, smart grid technologies can reduce power demand by %. In Europe, wind and solar energy use will expand to % of total installed capacity, even as fossil based power is likely to decrease. The predominant use of renewable energy in the future is essential to reduce reliance on costly fossil imports, and further to shift towards a low carbon economy. Solar and wind energy likely to play a key role. 10

8 Research Scope Geographical Scope Global Industries Covered Big Data, Cloud Computing, Online B2B, 3D Printing, Urban Logistics, Connected Living, Cyber Security, Mobile Robots, Waste to Energy, Alternative Energy 12

9 Research Background This research service contains and captures content from various other regional and global studies on Mega Trends: M65B-18: World's Top Global Mega Trends to 2020 and Implications to Business, Society, and Cultures Completed October 2010 P5DB-MT: Mega Trends in India: Macro to Micro Implications of Mega Trends to 2020 Completed March 2012 M818-39: African Mega Trends: A Bright Vision for the Growing Continent Completed May 2012 NAFD-MT: Mega Trends in Latin America: A Future Outlook for the "Next Generation" Continent Completed December 2012 M847-MT: Mega Trends in Turkey: Evolving Mega Trends To Transform Turkey into a Developed Economy Completed January 2013 M85D-MT: New Mega Trends in China Completed January 2013 P6E3-MT: Mega Trends in Indonesia Completed March 2014 M75C-MT: City as a Customer Identifying Growth Opportunities in Cities of Tomorrow Completed April 2013 M904-MT: Bricks and Clicks Macro to Micro Implications of Connectivity and Convergence in the Retail Industry Completed April 2013 This study is also supplemented by our continual interactions with industry experts, industry participants, partners, and in-house industry analysts. 13

10 Research Methodology: From Macro to Micro Trends This process for taking Mega Trends from information to strategy implementation is an example of the macro-tomicro implications of Mega Trends on future industries. Mega Trend Selected trends that impact businesses and markets Macro Micro Analysis of Opportunities and Unmet Needs e.g., Urbanization Sub Trend A sub-layer of trends that has a wideranging impact By 2025, about Mega Regions will exist worldwide. The Shanghai and Guangdong Mega Region will contain 9% of the total population of China. Impact to Your Industry Visualizing the roadmap of these critical forces through scenariobuilding and macroeconomic forecasts New mobility solutions Hub-and-spoke business model for different industries such as the logistics industry Impact on Future Products and Technology New electric cars and smart city solutions such as networked infrastructure, integrated transport, and telematics systems e.g., Mega City electric cars with a small turning radius, autonomous parking in busy cities, Facebook on wheels, and seamless switching from home to car Image Source: Dreamstime. 14