MINISTRY of ECONOMY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FEBRUARY 2013
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1 MINISTRY of ECONOMY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FEBRUARY 2013
2 OUTLINE A- MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK B- FOREIGN TRADE OUTLOOK C- INVESTMENTS, FOREIGN CAPITAL and INCENTIVES February 2013 Ministry of Economy 2
3 Annual Economic Growth Rates ( ) * Forecast, Medium Term Programme Source:TURKSTAT Turkey has recovered fast from the global financial crisis and amongst those countries affected less from current global economic uncertainties. Turkey has the fastest economic growth rates in Europe. Mean annual growth rate between 2002 and 2011 was 6%. Real GDP growth for 2011 realized as 8.5%. In the first nine months of 2012, Turkey grew by 2.6%. February 2013 Ministry of Economy 3
4 Growth Forecasts for Selected Countries/Country Groups (%) Growth Forecasts for Selected Countries/Country Groups (%) IMF OECD WB UN Turkey Euro Area US Brazil Russia India China Source: IMF, OECD, UN, WB According to the IMF, Turkish Economy is expected to grow by 3.5% in In the first three quarters of 2012, Turkish economy grew by 3.4%, 3,0% and 1.6% respectively, resulting in an average growth of 2.6% in the first three quarters of 2012 February 2013 Ministry of Economy 4
5 Potential of Population (2011) Source: World Bank (2011), TURKSTAT (2012) Turkey has a population of 75.6 million in which half of the population is under the age of Growth rate of population is 1.2% in Turkey, 0.3% in EU Countries and -0.1% in Germany. February 2013 Ministry of Economy 5
6 Unemployment Rates (%) Source: TURKSTAT In October 2012, the unemployment rate was 9.1%. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 9.3%. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Euro Area was 11.7% and 10.7% in (EU27) in November In terms of unemployment ratio Turkey outperformed 15 EU countries according to current data. After Russia, Germany, England and France, Turkey has the 5th largest labor force among the European countries. (2010, World Bank) February 2013 Ministry of Economy 6
7 GDP Per Capita Source: Dollar value is from TURKSTAT GDP per capita has tripled in the last ten years from 3,492 USD to 10,444 USD. According to Purchasing Power Parity (PPP),GDP per capita surpassed 15 thousand USD. February 2013 Ministry of Economy 7
8 Total Credits and Consumer Credits (Billion TL) Source: BRSA Credits and specifically consumer credits increased in parallel to the growing domestic demand. Total credits increased by 0.18% on a monthly basis and reached to billion dollars in January February 2013 Ministry of Economy 8
9 Targets in Merchandise Trade (Billion $) 2011* 2012* 2013** 2014** 2015** Exports , ,3 187,1 Imports 240,8 236, ,2 291,2 Volume of trade 375, ,5 478,3 Balance of trade -105, ,9-104,1 Exports/Imports (%) 56,1 64,5 62,5 63,3 64,3 * Actual (Source: TURKSTAT) **Forecast: Medium Term Programme, Ministry of Development- 10/09/2012) February 2013 Ministry of Economy 9
10 Foreign Trade Developments Annual (Billion $) Change (%) 2011/2012 Export 113,9 135,0 152,6 13,1 Energy Export 4,5 6,5 7,7 17,9 Gold Export 2,1 1,5 13,3 805,3 Import 185,5 240,8 236,5-1,8 Energy Import 38,5 54,1 60,1 11,1 Gold Import 2,5 6,2 7,6 24,6 Foreign Trade Volume 299,4 375,8 389,1 3,6 Foreign Trade Balance -71,7-105,9-84,0-20,7 Balance excl. Energy -37,6-58,3-31,6-45,9 Export/Import (%) 61,4 56,0 64,5 * * Energy corresponds to Chapter 27. Source: Ministry of Economy In 2012 compared to the previous year, exports increased by %13.1 and imports decreased by %1.8 respectively. February 2013 Ministry of Economy 10
11 Turkey: One of the Eight Growth Markets of Future Growth Markets Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management, 2011 Brazil Russia India China Mexico Korea Turkey Indonesia
12 FTA Countries 1. EFTA (Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, Liechtenstein) 2. Israel 3. Macedonia 4. Croatia 5. Bosnia and Herzegovina 6. Palestine 7. Tunisia 8. Morocco 9. Syria (**) 10. Egypt 11. Albania 12. Georgia 13. Montenegro 14. Serbia 15. Chile 16. Jordan 17. Lebanon* 18. Mauritius* 19. South Korea* (*) Agreements that are in the approval process (**) Pending February 2013 Ministry of Economy 12
13 Doing Business in the Region 4 - Hour 13
14 Energy Turkey is an energy hub between energy producer and consumer regions February 2013 Ministry of Economy 14
15 Free Zones in Turkey 54,022 people have been employed in Free Zones of Turkey in February 2013 Ministry of Economy 15
16 FDI Figures FDI inflows (cumulative) Companies with Intr.Capital (cumulative) : 15 billion USD : 122 billion USD USD Billion
17 Investment Climate in Turkey 10 REASONS TO INVEST IN TURKEY 1- SOUND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE 6- CENTRAL LOCATION 2- YOUNG and DYNAMIC 7- ENERGY CORRIDOR and POPULATION TERMINAL of EUROPE 3- QUALIFIED and COMPETITIVE 8- LOW TAX RATES and LABOR FORCE INCENTIVE FACILITIES 4- LIBERAL and INNOVATIVE 9- CUSTOMS UNION with EU INVESTMENT CLIMATE and OPEN ECONOMY 5- INFRASTRUCTURE 10- DOMESTIC MARKET February 2013 Ministry of Economy 17
18 Locations of Trade Representatives GEORGETOWN AMERİKA Buenos Aires New York Karakas Sao Paulo Mexico City Şikago Ottava Toronto Santiago Miami Vaşington San Francisco Houston Seattle Los Angeles AFRİKA Abuja Kahire Addis Ababa Nairobi Akra Pretoria Cezayir Rabat Dakar Trablus Darüsselam Tunus Hartum Kazablanka İskenderiye ASYA Astana Aşkabat Bangkok Bişkek Cakarta Duşanbe Hanoi İslamabad Kabil Kuala Lumpur Manila Pekin Seul Singapur AB DTÖ OECD Atina Bakü Belgrad Berlin Bern Bratislava Brüksel Budapeşte Bükreş Dublin Helsinki Kiev Kişinev Kopenhag Lahey Lizbon Lefkoşa Taşkent Tokyo Ulan Bator Yeni Delhi Almatı Guangzhou Hong Kong Karaçi Mumbai Şangay Georgetown AVRUPA/KAFKASYA Londra Lubliyana Madrid Minsk Moskova Oslo Paris Podgorica Prag Priştine Roma Saraybosna Sofya Stokholm Tiflis Tiran Üsküp Varşova Viyana Zagreb Barselona Batum Düsseldorf Hamburg Hannover Kazan Marsilya Milano Münih Novorossisk Odessa Rotterdam Selanik St. Petersburg Stutgart Birmingham Krasnodar Novosibirsk Yekaterinbur g Abu Dhabi Amman Bağdat Beyrut Doha Kuveyt Manama ORTA DOĞU Muskat Riyad Sana Şam Tahran Tel Aviv Basra Cidde Dubai Erbil Halep Kudüs Musul Tebriz AVUSTRALYA Sidney Melbourne February 2013 Ministry of Economy Daimi Temsilci Yardımcılığı Ticaret Müşavirliği Ticaret Ataşeliği İrtibat Büroları 18
19 THANK YOU FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE GET CONTACT WITH THE TURKISH COMMERCIAL COUNSELLOR`S OFFICE IN WARSAW Ul. Wita Stwosza Warszawa Tel:
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