Quantitative significance of growth Inequality and poverty. Sources of growth Global imbalance Tensions and risks

Transcription

1 The Role of Growth in Development by Danny Quah Economics Department, LSE Wednesday 13 February 28 Overseas Development Institute, London Conclusions Quantitative significance of growth Inequality and poverty Sources of growth Global imbalance Tensions and risks 2 1 years of world growth Six billion humans, 5 increase in world income But , richest 1% world s humans as much income as poorest 57%... average income top 5% world population 114 bottom 5% , while average world income increased 6%, average bottom 5% fell onequarter and average top 5% rose one-eighth 3 D. Quah 1

2 World Poverty World GDP 1 12 PPP$ GDP per capita PPP$ World s poor s poor Remainder PPP$ means constant International Dollars corrected for inflation and Purchasing Power Parity Poor means living on less than PPP$1/day D. Quah 2

3 7 Global growth over the last 25 years Income more than doubled $1-poverty fell by one-third, more than 5 million people but poverty outside remained unchanged, or even increased 8 Economic growth Y =F(K, N, A) Openness to trade Macroeconomic stability Industrial structure Governance and transparency Enlightened policy: Reallocation, inequality Education and human capital. Technology 9 D. Quah 3

4 .8.7 Problem-solving skills in 15 year-olds, 23 OECD Average OECD.6.5 Precision Luxembourg Tunisia Ireland France New Zealand Hungary Australia Uruguay Greece Indonesia Italy Japan Mexico UK Brazil Serbia Russia Finland Turkey Spain Thailand Germany Korea Hong Kong Canada Iceland Country mean 1 Contributions to global economy From a small base, the contributions are substantial even at market exchange rates 25 Fraction of World GNI 26 growth, billions $ 28.6% % India 1.8% India 6.8% High-income OECD Low + Middle Income 75.6% % Overall balance of trade 6 Trade balance, billions $ D. Quah 4

5 Annual earnings of men, aged 35-44, in $ Median Mean Source: Paul Krugman, 27 Meade Lecture, LSE 13 College-High School wage ratio Source: Paul Krugman, 27 Meade Lecture, LSE 14 Skill premium: Before and after liberalization Source: Paul Krugman, 27 Meade Lecture, LSE 15 D. Quah 5

6 From even the Wall Street Journal 16 World Poverty World GDP 1 12 PPP$ GDP per capita PPP$ World s poor s poor Remainder PPP$ means constant International Dollars corrected for inflation and Purchasing Power Parity Poor means living on less than PPP$1/day 17 Overall balance of trade 6 Trade balance, billions $ D. Quah 6

7 Overall balance of trade 6 Trade balance, billions $ Overall balance of trade 6 Trade balance, billions $ Developing Asia Oil exporters Bilateral balance of trade 5 Bilateral Trade Balance, billions $ D. Quah 7

8 Bilateral balance of trade 5 Bilateral Trade Balance, billions $ Oil exporters Bilateral balance of trade 5 Bilateral Trade Balance, billions $ Oil exporters + Oil Trade balance: Summary Bilateral: trade balance with matches that with oil exporters and taken together Overall: Oil exporters by far the dominant surplus Source of global imbalance Whose savings glut? -specific explanations? 24 D. Quah 8

9 Conclusions Quantitative significance of growth Inequality and poverty Sources of growth Global imbalance Tensions and risks 25 The Role of Growth in Development by Danny Quah Economics Department, LSE Wednesday 13 February 28 Overseas Development Institute, London D. Quah 9