GLOBAL RETAIL TRENDS IMPLICATIONS FOR COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
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1 GLOBAL RETAIL TRENDS IMPLICATIONS FOR COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE Q2 2013
2 GLOBAL ECONOMY
3 2013: Steady Relative to % CANADA 1.6% U.S. 2.9% MEXICO 1.1% UK -0.5% FRANCE -1.8% SPAIN 0.5% GERMANY -2.0% ITALY 2.8% RUSSIA 7.5% CHINA 5.1% INDIA 1.7% JAPAN 1.6% SOUTH KOREA 4.8% 2.4% BRAZIL CHILE 2.0% ARGENTINA 2.5% AUSTRALIA Source: IHS Global Insight, July CBRE Page 3 3
4 Mature Economies Expected to Drive Growth (Real GDP, Quarter-on-Quarter % Change, Annual Rate) Source: IHS Global Insight, July CBRE Page 4
5 A Multi-Speed Global Recovery (Real GDP, Annual % Change) Source: IHS Global Insight, July CBRE Page 5
6 2013 Retail Sales Outlook (Real Retail Sales Growth, 2013) 0.4% CANADA 2.7% U.S. 1.7% MEXICO -0.6% UK -1.0% FRANCE -4.4% SPAIN -3.6% ITALY 1.6% GERMANY 4.0% RUSSIA 10.2% CHINA 1.6% JAPAN 2.9% SOUTH KOREA 7.4% CHILE 3.3% BRAZIL 9.6% ARGENTINA 3.1% AUSTRALIA Source: IHS Global Insight, July CBRE Page 6
7 CBRE Global Retail Rent Index Source: CBRE Research, CBRE Page 7
8 U.S. CONSUMERS
9 U.S. Economy Strongly Tied to Consumption Source: IHS Global Insight, July CBRE Page 9
10 Households Deleveraging Debt Service as % of Disposable Income Source: Moody s Analytics, CBRE Page 10 10
11 Consumer Confidence Heading in the Right Direction (Index 1985=100) Source: The Conference Board; Moody's Analytics (ECCA) Forecast, CBRE Page 11 11
12 US Household Wealth Recovering Source: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds B.100 CBRE Page 12
13 U.S. Retail Sales Volatile Over Past Year Source: Moody s Analytics, August CBRE Page 13
14 U.S. RETAIL PROPERTIES
15 U.S. Market Fundamentals: Modest Improvement CBRE Page 15
16 Property Sector Trajectory Q2 Past Cyclic High Natural Rate Year Back to "Natural Rate" Office Vacancy Rate 15.2% 16.9 / to Industrial Availability Rate 12.0% 14.5 / to Retail Availability Rate 12.3% 13.2 / to Multifamily Vacancy Rate 4.6% 7.44 / to Full Service Hotels Vacancy Rate 34.4%* 43 / to *As of Q Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q CBRE Page 16
17 U.S. Retail Property Capital Markets Trends Source: Real Capital Analytics, Q CBRE Page 17 17
18 Flight-to-Quality Driving Prime Rent Growth Market District Retail Subtype Prime Retail Net Rents, Q ($USD/sq. ft./annum) Broker Prime Retail Rents 6 Month Outlook New York Fifth Avenue (49th to 59th Streets) High Street $ 3,050 Los Angeles Rodeo Drive High Street $ 580 San Francisco Union Square High Street $ 575 Chicago Michigan Avenue High Street $ 480 Honolulu Kalakaua Avenue High Street $ 420 Miami 600/700 Block of Lincoln Road High Street $ 300 Washington, D.C. M Street, Georgetown High Street $ 225 Dallas Highland Park Village Shopping Center $ 170 Boston Newbury Street High Street $ 150 Philadelphia Walnut Street High Street $ 135 Seattle 6th & Pine High Street $ 85 Denver Cherry Creek Shopping Center $ 60 Source: CBRE Research, Q CBRE Page 18 18
19 US Retail Construction Remains at Historical Lows Source: CBRE EA, Q CBRE Page 19 19
20 Miami Supply & Demand Outlook Neighborhood & Community Centers Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q CBRE Page 20 20
21 West Palm Beach Supply & Demand Outlook Neighborhood & Community Centers Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q CBRE Page 21 21
22 Neighborhood & Community Centers Fort Lauderdale Supply & Demand Outlook Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q CBRE Page 22 22
23 Orlando Supply & Demand Outlook Neighborhood & Community Centers Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q CBRE Page 23 23
24 Tampa Supply & Demand Outlook Neighborhood & Community Centers Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q CBRE Page 24 24
25 Jacksonville Supply & Demand Outlook Neighborhood & Community Centers Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q CBRE Page 25 25
26 CHANGING FACE OF RETAIL
27 Megatrends Impacting U.S. Retail Properties Global Urbanization E-commerce Changing Demographic Age Cohorts Med-tail? CBRE Page 27
28
29 Megacities in 2007 LOS ANGELES NEW YORK CITY LONDON PARIS ISTANBUL MOSCOW BEIJING SEOUL TOKYO OSAKA-KOBE MEXICO CITY CAIRO MUMBAI DELHI MANILA SAO PAULO BUENOS AIRES RIO DE JANEIRO Note: Megacities includes cities with population of at least 10 million inhabitants. Source: United Nations, 2007; McKinsey Global Institute China All City Model; McKinsey Global Institute. CBRE Page 29 29
30 Megacities by 2025 LOS ANGELES MEXICO CITY NEW YORK CITY BOGOTA LIMA LONDON PARIS LAGOS KINSHASA MOSCOW XI AN BEIJING ISTANBUL TOKYO SEOUL LAHORE TIANJIN OSAKA-KOBE CHENGDU TEHRAN CHONGQING SHANGHAI CAIRO KOLKATA KARACHI WUHAN HANGZHOU DELHI DHAKA GUANGZHOU AHMADABAD MUMBAI SHENZHEN HYPERABAD MANILA BANGALORE CHENNAI JAKARTA SAO PAULO BUENOS AIRES RIO DE JANEIRO Note: Megacities includes cities with population of at least 10 million inhabitants. Source: United Nations, 2007; McKinsey Global Institute China All City Model; McKinsey Global Institute. CBRE Page 30 30
31 % OF GDP GROWTH: 2013 TO 2030 Source: IHS Global Insight, CBRE Page 31
32 THE REAL ESTATE INVESTABLE UNIVERSE Source: CBRE Global Investors. CBRE Page 32
33 REGIONAL SHARES SHIFT OVER TIME $4.6 Trillion in 1985 $43.3 Trillion in 2020 Source: CBRE Global Investors. CBRE Page 33
34 E-Commerce Sales Growth Source: U.S. Census Bureau, March CBRE Page 34
35 Taking a Bite Out of Brick and Mortar Sales Source: U.S. Census Bureau, CBRE Page 35
36 Retailers are Shrinking their Footprints 200 Average Store Square Feet (x 1,000) Best Buy Lowe's Office Depot Target Wal-Mart Sources: CBRE-EA/FW Dodge Pipeline, CBRE Research Calculations CBRE Page
37 Retailing in 2025: What the Internet Does! Creates greater price competition between retailers. Competition lowers margins (and rents?) Stores become smaller display centers where clients try, size, color items which are then ordered-delivered. Big Box Small Box Small stores allow retailers to disperse into local targeted areas rather than regional centers. Inventories move from retailer (back) to warehouses. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, CBRE Page 37
38 From Transaction-Based to Relationship-Based Retail Experience Shopping Service- Oriented Future Functionality of Retail Space Specialty & noncommoditized Products Focus Omni- Channel Source: U.S. Census Bureau, CBRE Page 38
39 SHIFTS IN DEMOGRAPHIC AGE COHORTS
40 U.S. Age Demographic Shifts Source: U.S. Census Bureau, CBRE Page 40
41 Shifts in Demographic Age Cohorts Source: U.S. Census Bureau, CBRE Page 41
42 AGING POPULATIONS WILL SPEND LESS AND LESS Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics ( BLS ). CBRE Page 42
43 ALTERNATIVE?: MED-TAIL What do medical providers need? A- Significant parking ratios. What do shopping centers provide? A- Significant parking ratios? When do shopping centers need more traffic? A- M-F 9-3 When do medical providers generate the majority of their traffic? A- M-F 9-5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics ( BLS ). CBRE Page 43
44 CONCLUSION
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