Global Office Thermometer

Transcription

1 Global Office Thermometer Lower costs driven by appreciating US dollar, weaker economic growth in Europe and increased supply in emerging markets May 2015

2 This is the 18th edition of our annual report taking the temperature of global office markets, measuring the cost of occupying office space on a workstation basis, now and in the future, in 138 cities worldwide. Report highlights Globally the average annual USD cost of occupying a workstation fell by 3.9% in USD occupancy costs fell in six out of ten global office markets London s West End remains the world s most expensive location Global occupancy costs are forecast to increase on average by just 0.5% per year over the next two years, on local currency basis AMERICAS 4.8% San Fran 15k New York 23k Changes in occpancy costs International occupiers are benefiting from significant falls in workstation occupancy costs. Globally the average annual USD cost of occupying a workstation fell by 3.9% in. Broadly this reflected the sharp depreciation of local currencies against the US dollar, slower economic growth in Europe and increased supply in emerging markets. In addition, occupiers are using space more intensively in some cities, thereby reducing the average cost of a workstation. Stripping out currency effects reveals that global workstation occupancy costs, measured in local currency, increased by just 1.8% in. On a USD basis, Asia Pacific saw the fastest decline, down 8. in. Similarly, EMEA posted an average fall of 7.8% in. Occupancy costs in North America and Greater China, however, increased by 4.8% and 2., respectively. On a local currency basis occupancy costs in the Americas increased (1.7%), in. In EMEA costs increased by 2.5%. Similarly in Greater China costs increased by 4., but fell by 1. in Asia Pacific. Occupancy costs, measured in USD, fell in six out of ten global office markets in. Costs increased in less than a third. MARKETS Rising & Falling Occupancy costs have increased in 60% of markets in the past year Occupancy costs have decreased in 3 of markets in the past year Measured in local currency, occupancy costs increased in 6 of office markets covered. Conversely, costs fell in 3 of markets 2 DTZ

3 Moscow 11k EMEA -7.8% London 29k GREATER CHINA 2. Tokyo 12k GLOBAL Bejing 12k -3.9% Pune 1.8k Chennai Chongqing 2.3k Hyderabad 1.8k 1.2k Occupancy Cost Increase Occupancy Cost Decrease Singapore 11k Sydney 11k ASIA PACIFIC Occupancy cost (USD per workstation, ) Change in occpancy costs (USD per workstation, 2013-) 35% + ABU DHABI Moscow saw the sharpest fall in occupancy costs in, falling by a third on a USD basis. Other Eastern European cities including Bucharest (25%), Bratislava (2) and Prague (2) also posted sharp falls. 30% 25% 20% SHENZHEN Some of the big Canadian cities also experienced sudden falls including Toronto (30%), Ottawa (1) and Montreal (1). Boston was the only major US city to post a fall (). 15% 10% 5% DUBLIN SAN FRANCISCO HOUSTON NEW YORK In Australia all the major office markets posted falls, measured in USD, including Perth (16%), Canberra (1), Brisbane (1), Adelaide (1) and Sydney (1). Some of the sharpest increases were in Middle East & Africa markets. Abu Dhabi saw the fastest increase in occupancy costs of any city in our global ranking in, increasing by 36% on a USD basis. Other Middle East markets also saw some of the fastest increases notably Jeddah (20%) and Riyadh (1). Similarly, occupancy costs in Lagos increased 8%. In Greater China, Shenzhen posted the fastest increase (20%). Other China cities posting fast increases included Nanjing (9%), Tianjin (8%) and Wuhan (8%). 0-5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% MIAMI PARIS KUALA LUMPUR BERLIN PERTH PRAGUE TORONTO MOSCOW Dublin posted the fastest increase (1) in Europe, echoing the turnaround in the Irish economy. London (West End) witnessed the second fastest increase (1). San Francisco led US cost increases (1) followed by Silicon valley (9%) and Houston (9%). New York workstation occupancy costs increased 6%. 2 - Markets posting the sharpest falls and increases in occupancy costs (USD per workstation, 2013-) Global Office Thermometer Report 3

4 Global Dashboard LONDON (WEST END) STOCKHOLM PERTH WARSAW BRATISLAVA MOSCOW TORONTO KUALA LUMPUR CHICAGO DUBLIN MINNEAPOLIS SHENZHEN MUMBAI ABU DHABI Biggest changes in market placings (2013-) 3 London (West End) remains the most expensive market at over 29,000 USD per workstation (). London is 28% more expensive than the second placed city, New York. The remainder of the Top 10 most expensive markets are regionally diverse including Hong Kong (3rd), Lagos (4th), San Francisco (7th) and Doha (10th). Four European cities Zurich (5th), Geneva (6th), Luxembourg (8th) and Paris (9th) complete the Top 10. Mumbai was the biggest faller in, falling 25 places from 68th to 93rd on our list of 133 global cities. Likewise Toronto (down 19 places), Malmo (19 paces), Moscow (17 places) and Sao Paulo (16 places) fell markedly. Conversely, the biggest risers were Abu Dhabi (up 32 places), Jedah (22 places), Shenzen (20 places) and Minneapolis (14 places). Top 10 most expensive markets (USD per workstation, ) 4 LONDON WEST END London West End is the most expensive location in the world. (29,340) NEW YORK: (22,990) HONG KONG: (21,110) LAGOS: (19,080) ZURICH: (15,210) GENEVA: (15,160) SAN FRANCISCO: (15,070) LUXEMBOURG: (14,370) PARIS: (13,690) DOHA: (13,590) BARCELONA by comparison, is 86% cheaper than London West End 4 DTZ

5 LONDON (WEST END) SAN FRANCISCO DUBLIN CHICAGO MANILA LISBON CHENNAI HYDERABAD Workstation equivalence () 6 There are significant inter and intra regional differences in the use of space. Emerging markets have higher than average space efficiency rates than more mature markets in Europe and North America. In Europe, the most efficient market Bucharest uses nearly the amount of space occupied by a workstation in the least efficient market Helsinki. This reflects very different local requirements and standards across Europe, especially between Western and Central & Eastern Europe. The intensive use of space is also driven by cost. Higher cost locations, especially in Europe and North America US, use space more efficiently than lower cost locations. The cost of one workstation in London is equivalent to 24 workstations in Hyderabad, the cheapest city in our global ranking. Similarly, one workstation in London is equivalent to 11 workstations in Lisbon, the cheapest European office market in our ranking. Broadly, the cheapest markets are in India, China and Eastern Europe. Chennai, Pune and Bengaluru are amongst the five cheapest markets. Similarly, Chongqing and Qingdao are on the bottom ten. Likewise, Bucharest also appears in the bottom ten. Average Space Per Workstation (SQM ) 5 GLOBAL AVERAGE GREATER CHINA ASIA PACIFIC 11.6 MIN: 5.8 (MUMBAI) 8.8 MIN: 6.9 (CHONGQING) 11.1 MIN: 5.8 (MUMBAI) MAX: 21.2 (HELSINKI) MAX: 13.5 (TAIPEI) MAX: 16.6 (AUCKLAND) EUROPE MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA NORTH AMERICA 12.5 MIN: 7.0 (BUCHAREST) 13.0 MIN: 9.3 (TEL AVIV) 12.6 MIN: 8.2 (CHICAGO) MAX: 21.2 (HELSINKI) MAX: 15.0 (ABU DHABI) MAX: 17.1 (OTTAWA) Maximum Average Space Per Workstation (SQM) Minimum Average Space Per Workstation (SQM) Global Office Thermometer Report 5

6 Ottawa Chicago 4,580 Minneapolis 5,940 7% Toronto 9, ,360 Montreal 6,750 0% San Francisco 15,070 Vancouver 9,540 6% San Jose 1 10,080 Los Angeles 7,400 Americas Calgary 11,340 8% Seattle 7,390 7% San Diego 9% 8,800 Phoenix 7,510 5% 4,230 Denver 7,850 In the Americas, New York is the most expensive market at USD 23,000, reflecting a 6% increase in workstation occupancy costs in. Occupiers are using space more intensively in the most expensive markets such as New York, thereby offsetting the full impact of rising rents. San Francisco registered the fastest increase in costs in, up 1 to over USD 15,000. Similarly Silicon Valley increased 9%. In total we recorded increases in 16 US markets. Conversely, 6 US cities recorded falls. In Canada Calgary and Vancouver posted the sharpest increases, but Toronto saw falls in. Most of the big Central and South American cities in our ranking posted falls, reflecting slowing economic activity. 6 DTZ Mexico City 5,760 Buenos Aires 4,280-7% Monterrey 7% São Paulo 7,860-5% Santiago 4,940-7% 7 Atlanta 5,260 Miami 6,640 10,100 Washington DC 8,740 0% Boston Houston 8,280 9% New York 22,990 Dallas 5,090 6% Rio de Janeiro 9,390 - Occupancy cost (USD per workstation, ) and change over last 12 months (local currency)

7 London 29,340 Birmingham 16% 7,430 1 Bristol 7,040 Edinburgh 8,220 8% Manchester 8,160 5,790 The Hague Malmo 5,660 7,020 Newcastle 1 6% Amsterdam 10,350 Berlin 7,980 Stockholm 13,130 10,530-5% Kiev 5,100-20% Helsinki Moscow 10,500-3 Dublin Cardiff 5,610 9,690 27% Luxembourg 14,370 Paris 13,690 10% 1 Munich 11,110 Lisbon 2,740-5% EMEA Mardid 5,060 - Casablanca 3,530 Zurich 15,210-17% Warsaw Prague 4,010 5,230-1 Lagos Bucharest 19,080 8% In Europe, London (West End) is the most expensive city at over 29,000 USD. This is 11 times more expensive than the cheapest city, Lisbon. Dublin registered the fastest increase in costs, increasing by 27% in. London West End was second with 16%. This reflected strong demand and limited supply of suitable Grade A space. Conversely, Moscow saw the sharpest fall in occupancy costs in, falling by a third. Occupier demand faltered because of the deepening recession. Middle East markets led by Abu Dhabi posted relatively strong increases despite fears of softer demand from the oil & gas sector 2,940-16% Istanbul 10,260 Johannesburg 3,440 and expanding supply. 8 7% Tel Aviv 8,260 Jeddah 5,280 20% Riyadh 9,230 1 Dubai 8,360 8% Abu Dhabi 10,830 35% Al Khobar 5,280 9% Occupancy cost (USD per workstation, ) and change over last 12 months (local currency) Global Office Thermometer Report 7

8 Tianjin 3,350 Beijing 10% Shenyang 11,680 3,910 Dalian 3,710 8% Chengdu 3,120 - Qingdao Chongqing 2,720 2,320 Wuhan 3,390 10% Nanjing 3,080 1 Guangzhou Shenzhen 6,850 Hong Kong 21,110 Taipei 7,590 Hangzhou 4,450 Shanghai 9,050-5, Greater China In Greater China, Hong Kong is the most expensive office market at USD 21,100. Beijing, the second most expensive market, is considerably cheaper at USD 11,700. Chongqing is the cheapest market at USD 2,300, reflecting significant levels of new supply. Shenzhen saw the fastest growth in occupancy costs in, up 2, underpinned by strong occupier demand and rising rents. Conversely, Shanghai posted fastest decline, down thanks to a spike in new supply. 8 DTZ 9 Occupancy cost (USD per workstation, ) and change over last 12 months (local currency)

9 Seoul 11,370 Tokyo Kolkata 11,660 New Delhi 7,790 Chennai 1,750 2,440-8% 6% Mumbai 4,610-30% - -8% Ho Chi Minh 4,460 Manila 3,320 7% Pune 1,830-8% Brisbane 8,470 Hyderabad 1,200 - Canberra 5,050 - Sydney 10,970 Bangkok Bengaluru 2,320 6% 2,990 8% Auckland 7,150 Kuala Lumpur 3,490 Singapore 10,560 0% Jakarta 4,130 Wellington 5,460 Asia Pacific In South Asia, Sydney and Singapore are the most expensive market, with annual occupancy costs of nearly USD 11,000. India cities are generally the cheapest led by Hyderabad (USD 1,200), Chennai (USD 1,750) and Pune (USD 1,800). Bangkok and Manila posted the fastest increases in. Conversely, Mumbai and Pune saw the sharpest falls. High levels of vacancy, weak demand from the BFSI (Banking, Finance and Insurance Services) sector and declining rents were exacerbated by a softening in the Indian Rupee. Perth 10,320 - Melbourne 7, Occupancy cost (USD per workstation, ) and change over last 12 months (local currency) Global Office Thermometer Report 9

10 EMEA 0.8% AMERICAS - GREATER CHINA 0.0% GLOBAL 0.5% ASIA PACIFIC 1.7% 11 Change in occpancy costs (local currency per workstation), Occupancy Cost Increase Occupancy Cost Decrease Forecast International occupiers will continue to benefit from ebbing cost pressures in numerous office markets. Overall global occupancy costs are expected increase on average by just 0.5% per year over the next two years (on a local currency basis). Occupiers in North America will enjoy an annual cut in occupancy costs in 2015 and Conversely, Asia Pacific is expected to post the strongest average growth of 1.7%. Greater China, however, costs are likely to remain unchanged. Similarly, EMEA cost increases are set to average just 0.8%. In Asia Pacific, we expect Indian cities to post some of the strongest cost increases over the next couple of years. Hyderabad (5%), Pune (4.) and Bengaluru (3.5%) will lead cost increases, although these cities will remain amongst the cheapest in the world. Occupier demand, including that by international occupiers, will continue to be robust. Tokyo costs are expected to increase by 3. per year, thanks in part to stronger economic growth. 10 DTZ In Greater China, Taipei (1.) and Hong Kong (1.) are expected to lead growth, underpinned by relatively strong occupier demand. Mainland cities are expected to be broadly unchanged or post falls, reflecting continuing new supply. Shanghai costs are forecast to fall 1.6% per year. Beijing costs are expect to remain broadly unchanged. We expect most of the big US cities to post lower occupancy costs over 2015 and Houston and Dallas are set to see costs fall by around per year, due in part to slower demand from energy related occupiers. Likewise, Boston is forecast to see a 5% drop. Conversely, Chicago () and Washington DC () will post the fastest annual increases. 6% HYDERABAD PUNE LUXEMBOURG TOKYO CHICAGO DUBLIN SEOL TIANJIN SHANGHAI MOSCOW HOUSTON In Europe the majority of major office centres will see BOSTON cost increases due to improving economic prospects -6% and inelastic new supply. Luxembourg (), Dublin () and London West End () will lead growth. Moscow will continue to post the sharpest falls (down ) reflecting ongoing economic weakness. - Markets posting the sharpest falls and 12 increases in occupancy costs (local currency per workstation), -2016

11 Methodology Coverage and methodology This 18th edition of Global Occupancy Costs - Offices presents occupancy costs per workstation across 138 business districts in 60 countries worldwide. Using data collected from our extensive network of local DTZ offices around the world, this survey looks at the main components of occupancy costs for prime offices across the globe (Figure 2). The report provides a ranking of occupancy costs based on annual costs per workstation, taking into account differences in space utilisation across markets. Our space utilisation data reflects the best practice approach in each market. The data is submitted in local currency and according to local measurement practices. Our calculation of occupancy cuts through these local market practices to provide standardised cost units. We convert all data into the RICS definition of Net Internal Area (NIA) and USD. Thus, all data in this report is displayed on a Net Internal Area basis. This allows for true cross market comparison. Forecast time horizon Whilst we produce five-year forecasts, we believe that two year forecasts are more relevant to occupiers planning timeline. Not only do short-term forecasts offer a higher degree of certainty but landlords are also unlikely to address lease expiries that are beyond two years. It should be noted that our forecasts cover prime office space. Main Components of DTZ occupancy costs Costs controlled and charged by the landlord in a multi tenant building, normally property tax and service charge The highest rent that could be achieved for a typical building/unit of the highest quality and specification in the best location to a tenant with a good (i.e. secure) covenant Outgoings Prime Rent Total Occupancy Costs (presented on a Net Internal Area Basis) Definitions Total occupancy cost Total occupancy cost is defined as the average cost of leasing prime net usable space. Total occupancy costs include rents and outgoings. Outgoings refer to costs controlled and charged by the landlord in a multi tenant building. Outgoings normally consist of service charge and property tax. Our occupancy costs exclude easing incentives, such as rent-free periods and fit-out costs, as well as facilities costs specific to the tenant, such as cleaning or IT. We also exclude amortization of capital and related expenditure. Space utilisation standard per workstation Space utilisation standard per workstation is defined as the net internal area divided by the number of planned workstations for which the space is intended. It relates to the type of occupier that typically occupies prime Grade A office space for which this survey is intended. It gives a comparison of the amount of space required in different business districts, based on a given number of workstations. Space utilisation standard does not change significantly from year to year as it is closely correlated to long-established working cultures/styles, building design and nature of the office markets. Nevertheless, it does evolve over time, reflecting changing work styles and technology. Prime space Prime space refers to buildings newly developed or comprehensively refurbished (involving structural alteration, and/or the substantial replacement of the main services and finishes), not previously occupied, including sublet space not previously occupied. Prime rent The highest rent that could be achieved for a typical building/unit of the highest quality and specification in the best location to a tenant with a good (i.e. secure) covenant. This is a net rent, excluding service charge and tax, and is based on a standard lease, excluding exceptional deals for that particular market. Gross Lettable Area (GLA) Gross Lettable Area is the total of all covered areas occupied by the tenant. There is no standard global definition of lease area. Whilst a handful of countries have an official measuring code, the majority rely on accepted local market practice. Furthermore, in some emerging markets the definition of a leasable square metre may vary depending on the landlord. This means that 200 per sq m in Paris does not compare to 200 per sq m in Delhi. For cross-border comparison, this report converts all local GLA data into the official RICS Net Internal Area (NIA) definition. Net Internal Area (NIA) Net Internal Area refers to space functional to the occupier. It includes internal circulation space and meeting rooms. The area occupied by partitions within the premises is considered part of the net usable area as partitions are often an occupier s option. It excludes areas occupied by structural columns and common areas such as stairwells, lifts, lobbies, external walls, vertical ducts and common passages that are not used exclusively by the occupier. Global Office Thermometer Report 11

12 DTZ Global Occupier Metrics Tool Access our latest global research intelligence providing occupancy cost simulations and benchmarks across 250+ global office and logistics markets. Combining workplace strategy with market intelligence. occupiermetrics.dtz.com DTZ is a global leader in commercial real estate services providing occupiers, tenants and investors around the world with a full spectrum of property solutions. The company s core capabilities include agency leasing, tenant representation, corporate and global occupier services, property management, facilities management, facilities services, capital markets, investment and asset management, valuation, research, consulting, and project and development management. DTZ provides property management for 1.9 billion square feet, or 171 million square meters, and facilities management for 1.3 billion square feet, or 124 million square meters. The company completed $63 billion in transaction volume globally in on behalf of institutional, corporate, government and private clients. Headquartered in Chicago, DTZ has more than 28,000 employees who operate across more than 260 offices in 50 countries and represent the company s culture of excellence, client advocacy, integrity and collaboration. For further information, visit us at Follow us on Publication Date Copyright 2015 DTZ. All rights reserved. Steven Quick CEO, Global Occupier Services steven.quick@dtz.com Richard Yorke Global Head of Occupier Research +44 (0) richard.yorke@dtz.com Magali Marton Head of EMEA Research +33 (0) magali.marton@dtz.com Kevin Thorpe Head of Americas Research kevin.thorpe@dtz.com Dominic Brown Head of SEA and ANZ Research +61 (0) dominic.brown@dtz.com Andrew Ness Head of North Asia Research andrew.ness@dtz.com