EC-Earth: new global earth system model
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1 EC-Earth: new global earth system model Wilco Hazeleger Vincent v Gogh Global Climate Division/EC-Earth program KNMI, The Netherlands Amsterdam, December
2 Amsterdam, December
3 Observed climate change Amsterdam, December
4 Regional climate changes Temperature trends compared to global trends (=1) : Europe warms faster than the global average van Oldenborgh et al submitted; Toestand van het Klimaat, 2008 Amsterdam, December
5 Earth System Amsterdam, December
6 Atmosphere models Climate models Earth system models NB Prescribed solar radiation, emissions Amsterdam, December or concentrations 2008 of greenhouse gasses, 6 land use
7 Atmosphere Models The Earth System Unifying the Models Ocean Models Climate / Weather Models Land Surface Models Hydrolo gy Process Models Terrestrial Biosphere Models Water Cycle Carbon Cycle and Biogeochemistry Solid Earth Models The Predictive Earth System Natural Hazard Prediction Megaflops Gigaflops Teraflops Petaflops LANL (Roadrunner): 1000 Tflop = 1Ptflop ECMWF: 100 Tflop SARA: 50 Tflop KNMI: 1 Tflop Amsterdam, December
8 Sweden SMHI, Lund Un. The Netherlands KNMI, Un. Utrecht,VU, WUR Spain AEMET, BSC Denmark DMI Ireland MetEireann, UCD, ICHEC Belgium UCL Portugal IM, ULisbon Italy ICTP Norway MetNo Switzerland ETH Use best weather forecast model system (ECMWF) for climate studies Seamless Prediction Share resources & knowledge: meteorological institutes facilitate Provide input to IPCC and to member state policy makers Focus on adaptation (high resolution, impact, up to 2050, )
9 EC-EARTH Atmosphere: IFS Land: IFS H-tessel OASIS3 Sea-ice:LIM2 Vegetation:LPJ Ocean: NEMO Chemistry: TM5 Filtered Navier Stokes Equations Conservation of mass and energy ~10 prognostic variables ~ gridpoints, time step ~20 mins ~ 2 million lines of software code Amsterdam, December
10 EC-EARTH applications Science Projections Predictions Climate Services EC-EARTH EC-EARTH RCMs Impact models Decision making Institutes National programs FP7 FP7 IPCC5AR/ CMIP5 Kennis voor Klimaat C4I FP7 Amsterdam, December
11 Understanding impact of land use vs CO 2 rise (1870s vs 1990s) Land use only land use + CO 2 CO 2 only M. vd. Moolen pers. comm. Amsterdam, December
12 Predictions and projections T. Palmer, ECMWF Amsterdam, December
13 Climate projections boundary value problem Challenge project, Selten et al Essence project, Dijkstra and Hazeleger, Sterl et al 2008 Amsterdam, December
14 Projections of climate change IPCC4AR Amsterdam, December
15 Projections in EC-Earth Future changes in storms Future changes in wind direction Amsterdam, December
16 Applications: Downscaling EC-Earth courtesy Erik van Meijgaard et.al. Chasing extremes. Input for climate adaptation studies (e.g. KvK; RACMO downscaling) Amsterdam, December
17 Applications: Coupling Kennis voor Klimaat, Modelplatform, Wever et al 2008 Amsterdam, December
18 Applications: Communicating results Climate Socioeconomic User needs Water Nature Agriculture Kennis voor Klimaat: Tailoring Amsterdam, December
19 Data aspects Online conservative regridding for coupled components: flux coupler (OASIS3, energy conserving, fortran90) Irregular grids for ocean and atmosphere (dynamics spectral grid, rest on reduced Gaussian grid) Archiving in NetCDF on regular grid (nb netcdf hdf ok, hdf netcdf not ok) Amsterdam, December
20 Input Boundary condition: Solar forcing, aerosols, greenhouse gasses, land use (from observations or from integrated assessment models; transient or equilibrium) Initial condition: Atmosphere, ocean, ice, soil state (equilibruim from spinup of coupled model or observations) Amsterdam, December
21 Output 1D, 2D 3D state of atmosphere, ocean, ice, (wind, temperature, salinity, currents, ice thickness, ) Based on 17 member ESSENCE ensemble ( ) Total amount of archived data: 35 Tbyte Amount per member, per year: 15 Gbyte atmosphere, Ocean: 2.5Gb/year Mostly monthly means, but more requests for 6-hourly data Increase by factor 4 at T159, and 16 at T511 Next 2 years: Petabyte storage/exchange needed!! Amsterdam, December
22 Challenges Build a state-of-the-art earth system model as community model Integrate earth system knowledge at universities (NWO program, FP7 programs) in a global framework Facilitate the use of a state-of-the-art earth system model Projections & (decadal) predictions Coupling of EC-Earth to other models online: direct feed backs, regridding, parallelisation offline: downscaling, data formats, propagation of uncertainties (biasses) Handling and sharing large amounts I/O (O in particular) Protocols by World Climate Research Program (for IPCC) Communicating with user groups Amsterdam, December
23 THANK YOU! With help from Camiel Severijns, Xueli Wang, Andreas Sterl, Richard Bintanja, Rein Haarsma, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh Amsterdam, December
24 Projections of extremes Amsterdam, December
25 Temperature change (since 1980) Amsterdam, December
26 Input for climate projections: Emission scenario s Amsterdam, December
27 Using climate models: From Global to Regional scales Input for adaptation strategies: Climate model information input for climate impact models (regional or sectoral transport, agriculture, tourism, etc.) Amsterdam, December
28 Climate change effect on Rhine discharge KNMI 06 scenarios Current Situation Scenario 1 Strategy 1 Scenario 2 Strategy 2 Scenario.. Strategy.. m3/sec Discharge Köln Discharge Lobith Mlrd Euro Damage NRW Damage DikeR MCA Amsterdam, December
29 Validation of climate model integrations ESSENCE project, Dijkstra and Hazeleger, Sterl et al 2008 Amsterdam, December
30 57-year, linear trend of temperature at 2m Amsterdam, December
31 Typical errors in global climate models Cloud, Radiation, Sea Ice Circulation Murphy Amsterdam, December et al. Nature, 2004
32 Atmosphere Ocean Time step (a/o) Nr cpu (t:a/o/c) Output Coupler Parallelisation EC-earth T95L40 2 deg tripolar, 31L 3600/ :24/8/1 Grib OASIS3 MPI ECHAM5/OM T63L deg bipolar, 40L 720/ :30/2/1 Grib OASIS3 MPI/OPENMP Amsterdam, December
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