Staten Generaal van de Media In Search of a New Media Ecosystem

Transcription

1 Staten Generaal van de Media In Search of a New Media Ecosystem May 6, 2011 jo@dearmedia.be 1

2 Don t believe anything you will hear in the following presentation! 2

3 About us... Founding Partner of Dear Media, a digital media consulting company ( Active in interactive since 1993 (Dear Media, ONE Agency, theoriginals, tvagency, xca, The Reference,...) Not a Digital Native Not a Digital Immigrant, but a Digital Architect (for the personal stuff) (for the boring stuff) (to get in my stream) (we might even become friends ;-) Become fan of Dear Media on dearmedia and get the daily social media news in your Facebook stream picture: (c) Pieter Baert 3

4 twitter.com/jcaudron 4

5 To get this started... Who is using? - Twitter - Facebook, Netlog,... - LinkedIn, Plaxo - - LBS - Augmented Reality Who is using? - an iphone (2G, 3G, 3Gs, 4G) - an Android - a Blackberry - a Nokia, Samsung, Sony Ericsson,... - a tablet (ipad 1, ipad 2, Android,...) 5

6 The Perfect Storm Media Consumption is Changing 6

7 Drivers of change Content choice the power of many Social Media advertising Clutter Convenience, Richness & Control poor Creativity 7

8 Drivers of change Content choice 8

9 Drivers of change + Convenience, Richness & Control 9

10 Drivers of change TIME SHIFTING Convenience, Richness & Control 10

11 Drivers of change PLACE SHIFTING Convenience, Richness & Control 11

12 Drivers of change AUTHORITY SHIFTING the power of many Social Media 12

13 Drivers of change Fragmentation Content choice the power of many Social Media advertising Clutter Convenience, Richness & Control poor Creativity Shift of control and ownership Irritation 13

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15 March 2011: Facebook has members They are planning to reach 1 billion members by 2012 That s +650K users EVERY DAY! There are 4.5 million users in Belgium. 15

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18 300 In Q ,3% of all PC s sold globally, where ipads... (source: IDC) By 2014 almost tablets will be sold. Apple will continue to dominate the market for the next coming years

19 So, Traditional Media are Dead? No, but... 19

20 What might impact? Timeshifting! 20

21 What might impact? Timeshifting! How big is time shifted viewing today? 2,5% (VRT)? 20% (VTM telenovelles)? 10% (RTL)? It IS growing rapidly. How much loss of advertising can commercial digest? 21

22 What might impact? Direct OTT Distribution! 22

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24 What might impact? Direct OTT Distribution! 24

25 What might impact? Social and/on the 2nd screen #mediadebat: tweets in less than 24 hours 25

26 What might impact? The People! People don t watch less. But they are changing the very nature of the DNA of (commercial). They might even pay for, but maybe not to you. They might stay loyal to -brands, (near) linear,... but if they run away from your advertising, pay-,... you still have an issue. 26

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28 Will new technology help? 28

29 They have NO radio 29

30 Future Distribution Scenario s Are you Ready? 30

31 Traditional Value Chain Digital Information Type Distribution Aggregation Relationship CRM Billing Device Content Internet Portals, STB Computer Computer Channels Computer Digital VOD brands Mobile Mobile Tablet Mobile Tablet (print) media companies Tablet Internet Internet 31

32 Content Providers go Direct (1) Digital Information Type Distribution Aggregation Relationship CRM Billing Device Content Internet Portals, STB Computer Computer Channels Computer Digital VOD brands Mobile Mobile Tablet Mobile Tablet (print) media companies Tablet Internet Internet 32

33 Content Providers go Direct (2) and OTT Digital Information Type Distribution Aggregation Relationship CRM Billing Device Content Internet Portals, STB Computer Computer Channels Computer Digital VOD brands Mobile Mobile Tablet Mobile Tablet (print) media companies Tablet Internet Internet 33

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35 Print goes Digital and Digital2 - OTT Digital Information Type Distribution Aggregation Relationship CRM Billing Device Content Internet Portals, STB Computer Computer Channels Computer Digital VOD brands Mobile Mobile Tablet Mobile Tablet (print) media companies Tablet Internet Internet 35

36 + virtual blister or in-app purchase... 36

37 International VOD and content goes direct - OTT Digital Information Type Distribution Aggregation Relationship CRM Billing Device Content Internet Portals, STB Computer Computer Channels Computer Digital VOD brands Mobile Mobile Tablet Mobile Tablet (print) media companies Tablet Internet Internet 37

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39 The future? When, where, what, who? Usage 100% new media consumption (on demand, timeshifted, apps-based,...) linear media consumption (, radio, newspaper,...) Time Key Questions What is the timeframe? 5 years? 15 years? How big will this shift be? 10%, 20%, 50%,...? How much market loss can an organization digest? Will you be able to own the new media consumption relationship? 39

40 The future? When, where, what, who? Linear Live Traditional model IRL ad skipping (toilet, fridge,...) Channel zapping Live interaction on, SMS, 2nd screen Advertising Pay- Near Linear Now +/-3H Hybrid model: selectively loyal to channel Full ad skipping (DVR) & FFWD Channel shifting Shifted interaction (apps follow the show) via 2nd screen Advertising Pay- Pay-for-service Up-sell On Demand Pre-run Re-run Catalogue Starting from channel-logic: Selective, high value, expensive, premium, paid Starting from channel-logic: High convenience, mainstream, premium, free/paid, advertising Premium: series, movies,... NOT necessarily linked to existing channels, paid Long-tail: archive, wide offering, niche offering, both linked and not lined to existing channels, paid 40

41 The future? When, where, what, who? Linear Live Traditional model IRL ad skipping (toilet, fridge,...) Channel zapping Live interaction on, SMS, 2nd screen Advertising Pay- Up-sell Near Linear Now +/-3H Hybrid model: selectively loyal to channel Full ad skipping (DVR) & FFWD Channel shifting Shifted interaction (apps follow the show) via 2nd screen Advertising Pay- Pay-for-service Will all become a mix of free to air and pay-? Commercial broadcasters? Public broadcasters? On Demand Pre-run Re-run Catalogue Starting from channel-logic: Selective, high value, expensive, premium, paid Starting from channel-logic: High convenience, mainstream, premium, free/paid, advertising Premium: series, movies,... NOT necessarily linked to existing channels, paid Long-tail: archive, wide offering, niche offering, both linked and not lined to existing channels, paid 41

42 2012, what does she want? Can we deliver? Great experiences, great offer, great price, QoS 42

43 Beware of Macro-Myopia* *the trend to overestimate the impact of change on the short term and to underestimate the impact of change on the long term. Don t say I didn t warn you ;-) 43

44 Staten Generaal van de Media In Search of a New Media Ecosystem May 6, 2011 jo@dearmedia.be 44