Southern California s Ports and Goods Movement Industry 2015

Transcription

1 Southern California s Ports and Goods Movement Industry 2015 Keeping California Ports Competitive California Senate Informational Hearing May 8, 2015 Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist,, LAEDC

2 Outline U.S. & CA Economies Los Angeles County/So Cal Trade Trends Conclusion

3 U.S. & California Economies

4 California Adding Jobs Faster than U.S. 5.0% YTY % change in nonfarm jobs, seasonally adjusted 4.0% 3.0% US CA 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% -7.0% Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: US BLS, CA EDD

5 Labor Mkts in US & CA Nearly Healed 15.0% Unemployment Rate U.S. CA 10.0% 6.5% 5.0% 5.5% 0.0% Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: US BLS, CA EDD

6 U.S. Economic Forecast Real GDP - % Chg. Annual f 2016f 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 3.0% 3.0% Nonfarm Jobs - Annual % Chg. 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% Unemployment Rate 8.1% 7.4% 6.2% 5.6% 5.4% Consumer Prices - Annual % Chg. 2.1% 1.5% 1.6% 1.3% 2.3% Forecast Source: LAEDC

7 Exports, Imports of Goods $ in Trillions Total U.S. Goods Trade Goods Trade as % of GDP % Exports (left axis) Imports (left axis) 23.4% Trade % of GDP (right axis) 18.4% 24.1% 23.0% 30% 25% 20% % % 0.5 5% % Source: BEA

8 Los Angeles County Goods Movement/Trade Trends

9 Major Industries in Los Angeles County TRADED INDUSTRIES (Generate New Income) International Trade Entertainment Business Services Aerospace Fashion & Apparel Tourism Knowledge Creation LOCAL INDUSTRIES (Circulate Income) Retail Sales Leisure & Hospitality Health Care/Social Assistance

10 Job Trends by Industry Los Angeles YTY % change in nonfarm employment by industry, not seasonally adjusted Feb 2015: +101,100 jobs, +2.4% YTY; u-rate: 7.7% Construction Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Educational Services Government Information Health Care & Social Assistance Leisure & Hospitality Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Administrative & Support & Waste Services Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Financial Activities Manufacturing -0.8% -1.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.6% 1.9% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 4.5% 4.2% 4.1% 5.9% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

11 Container Throughput San Pedro Bay Ports Millions of TEUs Mar 2015 YTD: -4.3% Sources: Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach; forecast by LAEDC

12 Millions of TEUs 10.0 International Container Traffic at Nation s Major Ports New York Los Angeles Long Beach Savannah Oakland Source: Port Statistical Releases

13 San Pedro Ports Dominate Top 10 POLA/POLB Containers as a Share of Top Ten Total 50% 48% 46% 44% 42% 40% 38% 36% 34% 32% 30% 45.6% 44.5% 44.6% 44.8% 44.1% 42.8% 42.6% 42.7% 41.8% 42.1% 41.8% 41.0% Source: Port Statistical Releases, Compiled by LAEDC

14 L.A. County Trans/Warehousing & Wholesale Employment 440, ,000 Mar 2015 YTY: Trans/Warehousing +4,300 jobs, +2.9% Wholesaling +6,300 jobs, +2.8% 340, , , , ,000 90,000 40,000 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

15 Employment, thousands Trade-related Employment with employment shares by county Los Angeles County Orange County Inland Empire Ventura County 2.8% % 2.9% 16.6% 19.2% 18.5% 18.1% 22.1% 16.5% % 59.9% 58.6% Source: California EDD, LMID

16 Billions USD $500 Value of International Trade at Nation s Leading Customs Districts Los Angeles New York Laredo Detroit Houston $400 $300 $200 $100 $ Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Bureau of the Census

17 LACD Top 5 Import Sources, 2014 Billions of U.S.$ $140.8 $25.7 $12.9 $11.1 $9.5 China* Japan South Korea Vietnam Taiwan Source: USA Trade Online *China includes Hong Kong

18 LACD Top 5 Export Destinations, 2014 Billions of U.S.$ $35.3 $14.7 $10.9 $8.5 $7.5 $7.5 China* Japan South Korea Hong Kong Taiwan Australia Source: USA Trade Online -- *China includes Hong Kong

19 LACD Top Imports Ranked by Value, 2014 Computers & Electronics (Computers and Semiconductors) Transportation Equipment (Autos and Auto Parts) Apparel (Women s Clothing) Miscellaneous Manufacturing (Toys, Jewelry and Medical Equipment) Electrical Equipment (Appliances) Source: USA Trade Online

20 LACD Top Exports Ranked by Value, 2014 Computers & Electronics (Measuring Instruments and Semiconductors) Transportation Equipment (Aerospace Products Aircraft Engines and Parts) Chemicals (Organic & Inorganic and Resins) Machinery (Ag & Construction related and Pumps) Food (Meat Frozen Beef) Source: USA Trade Online

21 Conclusion

22 Challenges & Opportunities CHALLENGES Port Competition Freeway Congestion Limited Industrial Space Labor-Automation Tradeoff Port-Related Pollution OPPORTUNTIES Big Ship Ready, Efficient Alameda Corridor Think Regional IE Answer? THANK YOU! Global Leaders in Adoption of Pollution Mitigation Efforts & Technology Growth of Trade US & Global!!!

23 Appendix

24 Los Angeles County - Gateway to America s Largest Consumer Market Los Angeles Metropolitan Area Los Angeles County* Orange County Riverside County San Bernardino County Ventura County Population: Million California Population: 37.7 Million Southern California Los Angeles Metro Area + San Diego County Population: 21.2 Million * If LA County were a state, it would be larger than 43 other states in US. Source: CA Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit

25 LACD Top Trading Partners Billions of $ $176.1 $40.4 $23.8 $17.0 $12.9 $11.3 $10.5 $10.0 $9.6 $9.3 $8.0 *China includes the Mainland, Hong Kong and Macau Source: USA Trade Online

26 2014 Imports Entering the L.A.C.D. (Share of Total) Other, 27.4% Total Imports: $379.8 Bn Toys, Games, Sports Equipment, 3.1% Plastics, Plastic Items, 2.7% Computers, Peripherals, Machinery, Appliances, Parts, 18.7% Apparel, Accessories, (Not Knit or Crochet), 3.6% Footwear, Parts, 3.9% Furniture, Bedding, Lamps, 4.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Apparel, Accessories (Knit or Crochet), 4.8% Refined Oil Products, Natural Gas, 5.2% Electrical Equipment, TVs, Electronic Parts, 17.6% Motor Vehicles, Parts, 9.0%

27 2014 Exports Through The L.A.C.D. Total Exports: $128.2 Bn Other, 36.5% (Share of Total) Computers, Peripherals, Machinery, Appliances, Parts, 13.3% Electrical Equipment, TVs, Elecontric Parts, 11.1% Aircraft, Spacecraft, Parts, 7.9% Fruits and Nuts, 2.3% Miscellaneous Chemical Products, 2.6% Medical, Surgical, Dental Instruments, 6.8% Natural Pearls, Precious Stones, Metals, 6.4% Meat and Meat Products, 2.7% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Plastics, Items Made of Plastic, 4.9% Motor Vehicles, Parts, 5.5%

28 Los Angeles Metro Area Exports Ranked by Value, 2012 Transportation equipment (aircraft products/parts) Royalties (from film and music) Petroleum Products Precision Instruments Semiconductors Source: Brookings Institution Export Nation