Profit Margins. Yardeni Research, Inc. April 3, Dr. Edward Yardeni. Mali Quintana. thinking outside the box

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1 Profit Margins April, 1 Dr. Edward Yardeni 1-- Mali Quintana --1 Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Pricing & Unit Labor Costs 1 Nonlabor Costs Unit Costs Capacity Utilization Leading/Lagging Ratio Productivity - Unit Labor Costs Wages & Salaries Real Compensation Per Worker Relative Profit Margins: S&P Sectors -1 Relative Profit Margins: Consumer 1-1 Relative Profit Margins: Energy 1 Relative Profit Margins: Health Care 1 Relative Profit Margins: Industrials 1 Relative Profit Margins: Technology 1 Relative Profit Margins: Materials Relative Profit Margins: Materials & Telecom 1 April, 1 / Profit Margins www.

3 Figure 1. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS - Pricing & Unit Labor Costs - 1 Implicit Price Deflator (as a ratio of Unit Labor Costs) Q 1 1. Unit Profits Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 1 Figure. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS (yearly percent change) 1 Implicit Price Deflator Unit Labor Costs Q Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. - Page 1 / April, 1 / Profit Margins www.

4 1 Figure. UNIT NONLABOR COSTS (=) - Nonlabor Costs Q Q 1 Nonfarm Business Nonfinancial Corporations Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 1 Figure. UNIT NONLABOR COSTS (yearly percent change) Nonfarm Business Nonfinancial Corporations 1 Q Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. -1 Page / April, 1 / Profit Margins www.

5 - Unit Costs - Figure. NONFARM BUSINESS (yearly percent change) Nonfarm Business 1 Unit Labor Costs Unit Nonlabor Costs 1 Q Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. - Figure. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS (yearly percent change) Nonfinancial Corporations 1 Unit Labor Costs Unit Nonlabor Costs 1 Q Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. -1 Page / April, 1 / Profit Margins www.

6 1 Figure. - Capacity Utilization - PROFIT MARGIN & CAPACITY UTILIZATION 1 Nonfinancial Corporate Profit Margin* 1 Capacity Utilization: All Industries Q * After-tax profits including Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj) divided by nominal GDP. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, which determined that a peak in business activity occurred in the US economy in March 1. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Board of Governors of the FRS. Figure. PRICING-POWER RATIO Q 1 Prices Received/Prices Paid* (1-month average) Mar Nonfinancial Corporate Profit Margin * Prices received & prices paid plus. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Business Outlook Survey and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page / April, 1 / Profit Margins www.

7 - Leading/Lagging Ratio Figure. LEADING/LAGGING RATIO & PROFIT MARGIN Leading Economic Indicators/ Lagging Economic Indicators (purple line, left scale) Q After-Tax Corporate Profit Margin (using current production profits) (green line, right scale) Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Conference Board. Feb Figure. LEADING/LAGGING RATIO & PROFIT MARGIN Leading Economic Indicators/ Lagging Economic Indicators (purple line, left scale) Q After-Tax Nonfinancial Corporate Profit Margin (green line, right scale) Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Conference Board. Feb Page / April, 1 / Profit Margins www.

8 - Productivity Figure. PRODUCTIVITY MEASURES (=, ratio scale) Q 1 1 Nonfarm Business Nonfinancial Corporations Manufacturing Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figure 1. PRODUCTIVITY: NONFARM BUSINESS (yearly percent change) in four-quarter moving average Q Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. - Page / April, 1 / Profit Margins www.

9 - Productivity - Figure 1. PRODUCTIVITY MEASURES (yearly percent change) Nonfarm Business Nonfinancial Corporations Q Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics Figure 1. NONFARM BUSINESS MINUS NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE PRODUCTIVITY (yearly percent change) 1 Q Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. - Page / April, 1 / Profit Margins www.

10 1 1 Figure 1. LABOR COST MEASURES (yearly percent change) - Unit Labor Costs Nonfarm Hourly Compensation Employment Cost Index Q Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 1 Figure 1. UNIT LABOR COSTS (yearly percent change) 1 Nonfinancial Corporations Total Nonfarm Business Q Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. - Page / April, 1 / Profit Margins www.

11 - Wages & Salaries - Figure 1. WAGES & SALARIES (as a percent of personal income) Wages & Salaries Plus Supplements Feb Wages & Salaries Feb Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 1 Figure 1. SUPPLEMENTS TO WAGES & SALARIES (as a percent of wages & salaries plus supplements) Feb Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page / April, 1 / Profit Margins www.

12 - Real Compensation Per Worker - Figure 1. REAL COMPENSATION PER WORKER & PRODUCTIVITY Q 1 Real Pre-Tax Compensation Per Payroll Employee* (thousand dollars, -month average, sa) Nonfarm Productivity (=) Feb Feb Real Wages & Salaries Per Payroll Employee (thousand dollars, -month average, sa) * Three-month average of wages & salaries plus supplements to wages & salaries divided by personal consumption expenditures deflator divided by payroll employment. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figure. SOURCES OF REAL LABOR INCOME (yearly percent change) Real Pre-Tax Compensation Per Payroll Employee* Feb Payroll Employment * Three-month average of wages & salaries plus supplements to wages & salaries divided by personal consumption expenditures deflator divided by payroll employment. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page / April, 1 / Profit Margins www.

13 1 1 Figure 1. - Relative Profit Margins: S&P Sectors - S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) S&P Composite Consumer Staples Health Care Q Figure. S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) S&P Composite Consumer Discretionary Information Technology Q Page / April, 1 / Profit Margins www.

14 1 1 Figure. - Relative Profit Margins: S&P Sectors - S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) S&P Composite Energy Industrials 1 1 Materials Q Figure. S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) 1 1 S&P Composite 1 Telecommunications Services Q Page 1 / April, 1 / Profit Margins www.

15 1 1 1 Figure. - Relative Profit Margins: Consumer - S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Q Consumer Discretionary Sector Advertising Automobile Manufacturers Auto Parts & Equipment Publishing Figure. S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Consumer Discretionary Sector Casinos & Gaming Movies & Entertainment Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines Restaurants Q Page 1 / April, 1 / Profit Margins www.

16 Figure. - Relative Profit Margins: Consumer - S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Q 1 Consumer Discretionary Sector Apparel Retail Department Stores Specialty Stores Figure. S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Consumer Discretionary Sector Household Appliances Homebuilding Computer & Electronics Retail Home Improvement Retail Q 1 - Margins capped at -% due to extreme values Page 1 / April, 1 / Profit Margins www.

17 1 Figure. - Relative Profit Margins: Consumer - S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: CONSUMER STAPLES (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Consumer Staples Sector Household Products Packaged Foods & Meats Personal Products 1 1 Q Figure. S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: CONSUMER STAPLES (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Consumer Staples Sector Brewers Drug Retail Soft Drinks Tobacco Q Page 1 / April, 1 / Profit Margins www.

18 - Relative Profit Margins: Energy - 1 Figure 1. S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: ENERGY (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) 1 Energy Sector Integrated Oil & Gas Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Q Figure. S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: ENERGY (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Energy Sector Oil & Gas Drilling Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Q Page 1 / April, 1 / Profit Margins www.

19 Figure. - Relative Profit Margins: Health Care - S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: HEALTH CARE (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Health Care Sector Biotechnology Health Care Equipment Managed Health Care Q Figure. S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: HEALTH CARE (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Health Care Sector Health Care Facilities Pharmaceuticals Health Care Distributors Q Page 1 / April, 1 / Profit Margins www.

20 1 1 Figure. - Relative Profit Margins: Industrials - S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: INDUSTRIALS (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Industrials Sector Construction & Farm Machinery & Heavy Trucks Q 1 1 Industrial Conglomerates Industrial Machinery Figure. S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: INDUSTRIALS (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Industrials Sector Aerospace & Defense Electrical Components & Equipment 1 Q Page 1 / April, 1 / Profit Margins www.

21 Figure. - Relative Profit Margins: Technology - S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) 1 Information Technology Sector Application Software Data Processing & Outsourcing IT Consulting & Other Services Systems Software Q Figure. S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Information Technology Sector Communications Equipment Computer Hardware Computer Storage & Peripherals Semiconductors Semiconductor Equipment Q Page 1 / April, 1 / Profit Margins www.

22 1 Figure. - Relative Profit Margins: Materials - S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: MATERIALS (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) 1 Q Materials Sector Aluminum Paper Products Steel Figure. S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: MATERIALS (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Materials Sector Diversified Chemicals Industrial Gases Specialty Chemicals Q Page / April, 1 / Profit Margins www.

23 1 - Relative Profit Margins: Materials & Telecom - Figure 1. S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: MATERIALS (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Materials Sector Forest Products Gold Metal & Glass Containers Diversified Metals & Mining Paper Packaging Q Figure. S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Telecommunication Services Sector Integrated Telecommunication Wireless Telecommunication 1 Q - - Margins capped at -% due to extreme values Page 1 / April, 1 / Profit Margins www.

24 Copyright (c) 1. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. This report and the others posted on www. are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company s stock. Predictions, forecasts, estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any Yardeni Research, Inc. product, service, report, or website are proprietary to and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of www. may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights. The recipient should check any and any attachments for the presence of viruses. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this company s s or website. Additional information available on request.

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