San Diego Labor Market and Economic Overview

Transcription

1 San Diego Labor Market and Economic Overview Laura Choi, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco April 24, 2013 San Diego Banker CRA Roundtable The views expressed in this presentation are my own and do not represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Federal Reserve System.

2 U.S. GDP growth 0.4% for Q Percent Change in Real GDP, Percent Change st Q 2009: ARRA 6 4 th Q 2008: TARP Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

3 Western states showing stronger GDP growth Percent Change in Real GDP by State, 2011 vs CA 2.0 Far West = 2.1 U.S. = 1.5 Highest quintile Second quintile Third quintile Fourth quintile Lowest quintile

4 California mortgage delinquencies continue to fall 800, ,000 Number of Mortgages 400, , Loans in Foreclosure All Mortgages Past Due Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey

5 CA housing starts slowly trending up 250 Housing Starts (in thousands), California New Housing Unit Starts (in thousands) Source: Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, Haver Analytics. Seasonally adjusted.

6 So. California house prices stabilized and trending up House Price Index (2000=100) CA San Diego Carlsbad San Marcos Santa Ana Anaheim Irvine LA Long Beach Glendale Source: HFHA House Price Index (formerly OFHEO House Price Index)

7 California and Nevada have the highest unemployment among 12 th District states 14 Unemployment Rates in the 12th District Feb Feb Unemployment Rate (seasonally adjusted) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. (Feb. 2013) 7.7% NV CA OR AZ WA AK ID HI UT

8 California labor force continues to grow, employment recovering 19 Labor Force and Employment in California, Individual Workers (in millions) Labor Force Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

9 California has added jobs for the last several quarters, San Diego job growth on pace Employment (Year over Year Growth) 4% CA LA SD 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (quarterly data through end of 2012)

10 14.0 Unemployment rates declining in Southern California counties County Unemployment Rate, Los Angeles County San Diego County 6.0 Orange County Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, not seasonally adjusted

11 San Diego employment continues to grow 1,340 1,320 Total Nonfarm Employment (in thousands) San Diego Carlsbad San Marcos Recession Total Nonfarm Employment (in thousands) 1,300 1,280 1,260 1,240 1,220 1,200 1,180 1,160 1, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, not seasonally adjusted

12 But long-term unemployment persists 50% Unemployment in California by Duration (12 month moving average) 45% 40% More than 27 weeks 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5 14 weeks Less than 5 weeks weeks 5% 0% Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (Courtesy of CA EDD)

13 25 Despite improvements in unemployment, California labor market remains stressed California U 3 and U 6 Four quarter average, % of total* labor force Total Unemployment (U 6) Official Unemployment (U 3) Discouraged/ Marginally Attached Workers Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics * Total labor force and unemployment (U 6) includes discouraged and marginally attached workers and those working part time for economic reasons, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

14 Growth in lower wage work Jobs Lost in the Recession Jobs Gained in the Recovery Higher Wage 19% 20% Mid Wage 60% 22% Lower Wage 21% 58% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Source: National Employment Law Project

15 $60,000 U.S. Median Household Income ($52,762) $50,000 $40,000 Income needed to afford median rent ($34,840) $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $27,186 $21,008 Poverty Limit 4 person Household ($22,350) $18,824 $18,221 $0 Office Clerks Retail Salespersons Cashiers Food Preparation and Servers Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services poverty guidelines, American Communities Survey

16 Earnings and unemployment by education, Unemployment rate Median weekly earnings $2,000 Unemployment Rate No Diploma High School Some college Assoc. Degree Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey BA MA Prof. Degree Highest Level of Education Completed Ph.D $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Median Weekly Earnings in 2012

17 Real wages have fallen over time for less educated Real Hourly Wages by Education, (Indexed, 1973=100) Advanced Degree College Some College High School 80 Less than H.S Source: Economic Policy Institute, The State of Working America 12th edition.

18 Concluding Thoughts California and San Diego economy showing signs of improvement Housing market strengthening Unemployment declining But employment conditions still difficult for many Considerations for LMI workers Fewer mid wage jobs, more low wage jobs Most low wage jobs don t pay living wages Increasing importance of educational attainment