Comprehensive Overview of Global Wood Pellet Markets

Transcription

1 Comprehensive Overview of Global Wood Pellet Markets Produced for XX July 2022 Produced by FutureMetrics

2 Contents Global Pellet Markets - The Basis for the Demand for Wood Pellets... 5 Biomass Fuels Explained... 6 Overview Pellets... 9 Heating (Premium) Pellet Markets Policy Influences on Demand Rebates, Tax Credits, and in Limited Use, Thermal Renewable Energy Certificates (T-RECs) Impact of Taxes on Fossil Fuels Environmental Benefits of Pellet Heating Heating Pellet Market Summary Industrial Wood Pellet Markets Pellet Demand in Major Industrial Wood Pellet Markets Europe and England Japan South Korea Summary of Expected Demand for Industrial Wood Pellets Supply of Industrial Wood Pellets Canada and the US The Rest of the World Supply and Demand in the Global Wood Pellet Markets Policies that Drive the Industrial Pellet Markets United Kingdom Denmark Belgium Netherlands South Korea Japan Comparing Japan and South Korea Major Pellet Exporting Regions US South British Columbia Vietnam Russia, Ukrane, Belarus and the Impact of the Ukrane Conflict on Global Markets... 68

3 Other Asia and Australia The Baltics Current Pellet Pricing Prices delivered to Europe and England Prices Delivered to Japan and S. Korea Future Pellet Prices Pellet Pricing Summary Figure 1 - UK Generation Mix... 6 Figure 2 - Canadian Pellets and PKS FOB Prices... 8 Figure 3 - Map of US Pellet Export Flows Figure 4 - Map of Canadian Export Flows Figure 5 - Chart of Total Pellet Trade (both heating and industrial pellets) by Region Figure 6 - Imports into the UK from US, Canada, and Latvia - Monthly 2012 to Present Figure 7 US Heating Pellet Demand and Heating Degree Days 2008 to Figure 8 - Particulate Emissions from Heating Appliances Figure 9 - CO 2 Emissions from Heating Appliances Figure 10 - Heating Pellet Demand to 2027 by Country Figure 11 - Industrial Pellet Demand to 2027 by Country under Current Policy Figure 12 - Industrial Pellet Production 2010 to 2027 by Country under Evolving Policy Figure 13 - Japan Pellet Imports Monthly 2015 to Present Figure 14 - Estimated CIF Price for Pellets Imported into Japan Monthly 2015 to Present Figure 15 - South Korea Pellet Imports by Country Monthly 2015 to Present Figure 16 - Pellet Imports into S. Korea Monthly 2015 to Present Figure 17 - S. Korea REC Price History 2017 to Present Figure 18 - Estimated CIF Prices for Pellets Imported into S. Korea Monthly 2015 to Present Figure 19 - S. Korea Potential Demand for Pellets to Figure 20 - First Shipload of North American Industrial Wood Pellets in Figure 21 - Newspaper Clipping about First North American Pellet Shipment Figure 22 - North America Pellet Exports Figure 23 - Location of North American Industrial Wood Pellet Factories Figure 24 - Locations of AVP Pellet Factories in Vietnam Figure 25 - Locations of UniExport Pellet Factories in Vietnam Figure 26 - Vietnam Pellet Exports Figure 27 - Supply and Demand for Wood Pellets under Current Policy Figure 28 - Supply and Demand for Wood Pellets under Evolving Policy Figure 29 - Climate Risk Index Figure 30 - European Union Emissions Trading System Carbon Price May 2020 to Present Figure 31 - Carbon Pricing Instruments by Country Figure 32 - Drax Power Station in the UK Figure 33 - Denmark Energy for Power and Heat in

4 Figure 34 - Netherlands Share of Renewable Energy in Final Consumption Figure 35 - Comparing Monthly Total Pellet imports for Japan and South Korea Figure 36 - Comparing Monthly Total Value of Pellet Imports into Japan and South Korea Figure 37 - Major Pellet Exporting Regions Figure 38 - Map of US Industrial Pellet Factories Figure 39 - Map of Canadian Industrial Pellet Export Factories Figure 40 - Vietnam Exports to Japan and S. Korea Monthly 2015-present Figure 41 - Map of Russian Pellet Exports Figure 42 - Map of Logistics from the RFP Pellet Factory in Russia Figure 43 - Other Asian Pellet Exporters Figure 44 - Baltic States Pellet Exports Figure 45 - Sankey Maps of Baltic States' Exports Figure 46 - Industrial Pellet Spot Price History 2009 to Present Figure 47 - Estimated CIF Price of Pellets Imported from North America into the UK Monthly 2012 to Present Figure 48 - Estimated CIF Prices for All Major Importer into the UK Monthly 2012 to Present Figure 49 Estimated Market Shares for Pellet Importers into the UK Figure 50 - Monthly Imports into the UK from the US, Canada, and Latvia Figure 51 - Estimated CIF Prices for Pellets Imported into Japan Monthly 2015 to Present Figure 52 - Monthly Imports into Japan from Canada and Vietnam Figure 53 - Estimated Market Share for Pellet Suppliers to Japan Monthly 2015 to Present Figure 54 - Wood Pellet Imports into Japan with Market Share Figure 55 - World Shipping Container Index Figure 56 Spot Pellet Price FOB Vietnam 2015 to present in $ and Figure 57 - Estimated CIF Prices Pellets Imported into South Korea Monthly 2015 to Present Figure 58 - Market Share of Pellet Suppliers to S. Korea Monthly 2015 to Present Figure 59 - Compare Pellet Import Prices into Japan and South Korea to Present Figure 60 - Chart of Actual versus Estimated Shipping Costs Produced by the FutureMetrics Model Figure 61 - Baltic Dry Index Figure 62 - Components of Total Delivered Cost of Pellets Forecast Figure 63 - Range of Potential Future Costs per Tonne of Delivered Pellets Figure 64 - Tornado Graph of Critical Inputs Table 1 - Compare Pellets, PKS, and Coal Cost as Percent of Revenue... 9 Table 2 - Pellet Trade by Country Net Imports Table 3 - Cost of Heating Oil and Pellets in EU Countries Table 4 - EU and UK Potential Pellet Demand Table 5 - South Korea REC Specifications Table 6 - Summary of Expected New Demand for Wood Pellets between Now and 2027 Given Current Policies Table 7 Operational Canadian Pellet Production Plants (includes those currently closed) Table 8 - Operational US Pellet Production Plants (includes those temporarily closed and under construction) Table 9 - Planned Canadian Pellet Production Plants... 37

5 Table 10 - Planned US Pellet Production Plants Table 11 - EU and Russian Pellet Plants Table 12 - Major Pellet Exporting Regions by Tonnes in with CAGR Table 13 - US and Canadian Pellet Exports to Japan Table 14 - Intensity per Sq. Kilometer of Forestry in Vietnam and Selected US States Table 15 - Tonnes of Pellets per Hectare of Available Forest in Vietnam and Selected US States Table 16 - Forest Use Intensity of Selected US States Table 17 - Destinations for Russian, Ukraneian, and Belarusian Pellets and Impact of the Ukraine Conflit on the Global Pellet Markets Table 18 - Australian Pellet Exports Table 19 - Market Shares of Countries Exporting Pellets to Japan - most recent 15 months data Table 20 - EBITDA/Tonne for Enviva and Pinnacle... 92