The role of gas in New Zealand s energy future?

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1 The role of gas in New Zealand s energy future? PLACE IMAGE HERE Mike Underhill, Chief Executive Gas Industry Conference 24 October 2013

2 Global perspective what s happening with energy? Global recession demand weak but likely to pick up Climate change a real issue but slow progress big focus on electricity Peak oil still in the future but still affordable thanks to exchange rate Globally, gas seen as meeting the demand Fracking leading to United States energy self-sufficiency

3 US example Fracking in US has led to cheap and plentiful natural gas Move away from focus on renewables to selfsufficiency Reduced US LNG imports has affected international gas prices US now extremely attractive to energyintensive industries such as chemical manufacturing

4 Australian example Plenty of gas in Australia natural and CSG. Concern that exports will starve local supply WA already has a domestic gas reservation policy Majority of Queensland gas planned for LNG export 70% of QLD state govt s income will come from gas royalties Average price on Eastern seaboard has moved from $3/GJ to $7/GJ in 3 years Fracking concerns especially about CSG in NSW

5 Renewable energy international view Contribution of renewables to energy supply as a percentage of total primary energy supply, 2010 NZ 39% 5 Source: OECD factbook 2012

6 Global conclusions Gas seen as future go-to fossil fuel cleaner than coal and plentiful The economics around gas are complex Social and environmental implications as well as economic Subject to many variables exploration, competing uses, competing fuels, and the export question But a critical on-going energy source

7 The New Zealand energy and economic situation Economy picking up Government focused on economic recovery New oil and gas exploration on and offshore Energy demand weak at present No new electricity generation being built Coal industry facing problems New competing fuels Energy affordability The biggest challenge for renewables is in the nonelectricity sectors

8 NZ s climate change challenge Approx 50% Agricultural Emissions Approx 45% Energy Emissions Government goal: Reduce GHG emissions 50% by 2050

9 Consumer energy in NZ by sector New Zealand Consumer Energy (PJ/yr) 250 Renewable Non-Renewable 200 Energy Use PJ/yr Electricity Transport Industrial & Process Heat (77%), Agri/Comm/Resi (23%)

10 Consumer energy in NZ by fuel NZ Consumer Energy by fuel type gas, 10% coal, 5% other renewables, 10% oil, 46% geothermal (direct use), 2% electricity, 27% (75% renewable, ~20% gas)

11 EECA goal: achieve the benefits of energy efficiency and renewables Productivity Cost savings Economic Social Health Transport safety Reduced CO2 Better air quality Environmental Can gas make a contribution?

12 EECA S AGENDA Our purpose Focus on carbon intensive energy supply and use Progressive move down carbon intensity scale ultimately to renewables Strongly push for energy efficiency & renewables in transport and heat Believe there are roles for direct use of gas

13 What EECA Is Doing Residential Business Transport Thermal envelope Products & appliances Behaviour change Top 200 Commercial buildings Process heat Electricity levy Heavy vehicles VFEL Renewable fuels Behaviour change

14 How EECA DOES IT Information Marketing Regulation Incentives

15 Gas has less CO2 than other fossil fuels Lower carbon content Coal Oil Gas Ren kgco2e/mwh kgco2e/mwh kgco2e/mwh kgco2e/mwh

16 Gas is competitive on price Approximate Relative Fuel Costs Electricity LPG Diesel Fuel oil Coal Gas Wood pellets Wood chip Geothermal Approximate Fuel Cost ($/GJ)

17 Gas is important to NZ (21% of primary energy)

18 Oil exploration in NZ gas may be even more important in future On-shore and off-shore exploration underway Could result in gas finds alongside oil Good prospectivity

19 Gas use in NZ Dominated by electricity generation, but nonenergy use increasingly important Source: MBIE, 2013

20 Gas use in New Zealand Let s consider the gas outlook for the following energy sectors: Electricity Heat Transport Residential Other

21 Electricity a changing market rising geothermal production, increasing peaking capacity, and declining industrial load [are reducing] the scope for the higher prices needed to run large gas and coal-fired plants (Energy News, 27 Sept 2013.) Genesis Energy has decommissioned one of its Huntly units, and shut down a second leaving only two. Contact Energy is considering deferring further investment in its 377 MW Taranaki Combined Cycle plant at Stratford. Todd Energy is considering building a second peaking plant in Taranaki

22 Electricity future 90% renewable by 2025 NZ likely to meet or get close to target - renewables are currently cheapest The 10% non-renewable is about 4,700 GWh/yr, & may be coal-fired (storable, flexible etc) If the 10% is gas; ~ 30PJ/yr gas needed for CCGT ~ 40PJ/yr gas needed for steam cycle (Rankine) This compares to PJ used today So, long term means less gas needed for electricity generation

23 Heat energy Significant sector Competing with coal and wood Competing on price, storability, environmental effects New Zealand Consumer Energy (PJ/yr) 250 Renewable Non-Renewable 200 Energy Use PJ/yr Electricity Transport Industrial & Process Heat (77%), Agri/Comm/Resi (23%)

24 Heat energy Gas use down in the industrial and trade sector An energy-focused market: More than 70% of businesses have energy management initiatives in place

25 Transport energy Biggest energy sector highest carbon content High dollar is cushioning the impact of rising oil prices Alternatives such as biofuels and electric vehicles are inching closer Could gas provide a cheaper, lower carbon alternative? CNG busses still in Hamilton Taxi driver fills his car at the Petone and Lower Hutt Taxi Company CNG (compressed natural gas) service station in Photo from Te Ara

26 Case study: residential gas use Residential gas use around 4% of total gas consumption. around 247,000 residential consumers.

27 Growing consumer gas use - low marginal cost How many houses are fronted by gas? Gas already to house but no longer used Gas in street needs only a property investment No gas in street major investment (or bottles) $

28 Potential appeal of gas to consumers Affordable Highly reliable Lowest carbon of fossil fuels If flued, doesn t cause indoor air quality problems Outstanding performance Easy, clean, convenient Higher awareness of need for clean heating thanks to WUNZ:HS LPG cylinders good in emergencies

29 Potential for gas use in homes Other appliances, 4% Lighting, 8% Refrigeration, 11% Household energy use Water heating, 29.5% Electronics and electrical, 12% Cooking, 7% Space heating, 28.5% About 2/3 of household energy use could be met by gas

30 Consumers looking for alternatives Concern that electricity prices will rise Reliability of supply is a priority for many PV sales increasing - Marketed as cost effective solution but upfront cost is high

31 Residential Heater installations Heater type Installs Estimated total grant Heat pump 31,000 $22.2 m Wood burner 7,550 $5.4 m Pellet burner 540 $0.4 m Flued gas heater 370 $0.3 m Total 39,565 $28.3 m Warm Up New Zealand: Heat Smart. July 2009 to September 2013 (No heater claims since July 2013)

32 Why is the market penetration of gas so low? From outside the sector, it seems that gas should be competing much harder with electricity, (especially when consumers are actively looking for cheaper alternatives to grid electricity) Switching from electricity to gas has benefits for many consumers (cost savings, and a service level increase etc) Switching from electricity to gas has benefits for dual-fuel retailers (end-use of gas is less efficient, so more kwh energy sold for same service level, and often at better margins; and customer retention benefits)

33 Can gas create benefits for NZ? Gas ticks a lot of boxes if it is a substitute for coal or diesel Global branding Productivity Cost savings Economic ++ Wellbeing Health outcomes Transport safety Social ++ Reduced CO2 Reduced pollution Environment

34 Two Opportunities Auckland needs 400,000 homes by % of their energy could be supplied by gas Equivalent to 15.5PJ of gas What about Christchurch Transport uses almost half NZ s energy Looking for low carbon local fuel substitutes Evs and biofuels are current thinking Where are the lower cost and proven LPG & CNG technologies

35 Summary Gas faces some major threats: Reliance on demand for electricity Reliance on demand for chemical industry Diminishing residential & commercial demand Electricity ownership constraining competition & innovation Gas also has opportunities: definite appeal, e.g. low cost, reliable, fast Lower carbon than coal transition fuel A market seeking alternatives to electricity High performance (heat capacity)

36 CONCLUSION Gas is significant part of NZ energy Globally gas seen as energy of the future Lower carbon & particulates are a strong differentiator Although EECA focussed on renewables it supports the use of lower carbon gas in a number of direct uses Industry needs to have clear vision of opportunities At least two major opportunities This is a time for strong gas industry leadership

37 Questions?

38 Heating installations WUNZ:HS Installations as part of WUNZ:HS Gas heaters 1% Heat pumps Wood burners Pellet burners Gas heaters

39 Warm Up New Zealand: Heat Smart Government grants were available for clean heating Insulation Any eligible home 33% (up to $1300 incl GST) Low-income homeowners (CSC card holders) Heating $500 incl GST 60% $1200 incl GST

40 Other uses for gas: petrochemicals 16% of gas used in the petrochemicals sector (in 2011). the Motunui methanol plant Ballance Agri-Nutrients ammonia/urea plant at Kapuni the Degussa peroxide plant near Morrinsville. 2013: Methanex restarting Waitara Plant - expected to use about 20 PJ of gas a year and produce up to 2.4 million tonnes of methanol in New Zealand per year. (830,000 tonnes in 2011)

41 Other options for gas: export? The Goldilocks effect Large reliable supply needed to guarantee a return on a costly investment No up-sides for NZ domestic users - could link gas price to international prices

42 Gas in NZ - the supply

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