Providing adaptation. Colombian agricultural sector using agro- decision making. A look: Past, Present & Future. Diana Giraldo d.giraldo@cgiar.

Transcription

1 Providing adaptation support to the Colombian agricultural sector using agro- climatic tools to aid decision making. A look: Past, Present & Future Pic by Neil Palmer (CIAT) Led by: Supported: Diana Giraldo [email protected] org

2 TAILORED AGRICULTURE = LOCAL KNOWLEDGE SCIENTIFIC TOOLS APPROPRIATE POLICIES Suitable technologies Traditional agriculture Suitable and transferable technologies Suitable technologies Site-specific management Suitable technologies Site-specific management Agro-Climatic Forecasts Site-specific management Agro-Climatic Forecasts Efficient use of resources Pic from Flickr: Suitable technologies Site-specific management Agro-Climatic Forecasts Efficient use of resources Facilitating adaptation d t ti andd mitigation policies

3 d d 1. Reading data. ENSO Analysis. Descriptive Analysis. Indicators Quality control Tufa Dinku -IRI Homogeneity analysis Filling missing data una aplicacion libre para el analisis de series climatologicas/

4 Baseline Construction (next-users) Library climatic profiles Supply and demand agroclimatic for each crop learn from past events production Maize Maize T- Max Rendi miento Rendi miento T- Max

5 NETWORK: 21 STATIONS INSTALLED I know how to install a weather station? 116 Researchers, técnicos 23 Farmers

6 6 Pics by Neil Palmer (CIAT).

7 1 PROBABILISTIC PRECIPITATION FORECAST 2 Above Normal Below Pronostico de Precipitación Septiembre Octubre Noviembre Diciembre Identify: the higher predicted probability Identify: the threshold higher occurrence Example: Threshold forecast for September

8 How to learn from the past, to take advantage of forecast!

9 Many productive events with its climatic profile FORECAST Clustering by consensus of methods (FMA) Climate groups Group 1: rainfall distribution, ib i low radiation i Group 2: Good rain at the start, dry at the end radiation at the end Group 3: Irregular temperature FORECAST (FMA) Group 4: Wide diurnal range, drought Grupo 5:..

10 The training - from the community to the global level - is the key to advancing development. Stephen Zebiak Climate predictions (3 months) crop modeling corn, rice, beans (DSSAT, AquaCrop) Information input 3 month estimates Water balances, heat summations, biomass accumulation Yield Planting date, planting density, irrigation and fertilization programs, to scenarios with values of P and T high, medium and low in the expected range. Adaptive measures to consider PARTICIPATORY ANALYSIS AGRO CLIMATIC ANALYSIS, SUPPORTING ADAPTATION MEASURES TO SELECT CLIMATE SCENARIOS (e.g. ENSO)

11 South-south learning exchange: Colombia and Senegal: Useful and relevant agro-climatic information made available to small farmers Strategic alliances, networks and chains of knowledge and information Integrated approach, approach interdisciplinary teams Produce information that is UNDERSTANDABLE and ACTIONABLE

12 A big step in knowledge and capacity to manage risks agro- climatic in Colombia Applied research is transferred to the farmer Design and implementation of seasonal forecasts pilots and consistent adaptive actions involving climate and crop models Extension and advisory service (EAS) providers have an Build immensely communication important role tools to and play in theory serving of as change: a critical link between farmers and sources of new information and tools, and in knowledge, attitudes and skills aiding behavior change toward adapted practices among farming Incorporation of local knowledge into the analysis of agroclimatic models through the climate farmer populations. Perceptions of public extension systems as schools. unimportant and outdated institutions will need to change.

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