Operational Agrometeorological Service in India and associated RA countries

Transcription

1 Operational Agrometeorological Service in India and associated RA countries Dr. N. Chattopadhyay Director Agricultural Meteorology Division India Meteorological Department Pune, Maharashtra India

2 Outlines of Presentation Countries under RA II Agromet service in RA II Region Organisational Structure Operational Service Research & Development Communication Feedback Awareness Programme Economic Impact Future Thrust

3

4 Countries in RA II Region Afghanistan, Myanmar Bahrain Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea Bangladesh Japan Nepal Republic of Korea Turkmenistan Kuwait Oman Republic of Yemen Cambodia Macao China Peoples Democratic Republic of Lao Hong Kong Uzbekistan Qatar United Arab Emirates Maldives Tajikistan India Socialist Republic of Vietnam Saudi Arabia Kazakhstan Iran Islamic State of Mongolia Sri Lanka Pakistan Iraq Islamic Republic of Russian Federation

5 Current status of AgroMet Services in RA II Out of 34 Member counties in RA II, 14 countries directly involved in agromet service. These are :Bangladesh, Qatar, Japan, Nepal, Viet Nam, South Korea, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, India, Thailand, China, Laos, and Iran. These countries are engaged in agrometeorological service and issue agrometeorological bulletins. Such activities in the 11 counties were conducted within their NMSs. In Qatar, agrometeorological activities are conducted within the Ministry of Agriculture. In Japan and Viet Nam, such operations are managed jointly by the Ministry of Agriculture and the Meteorological Organization. The last country to begin agrometeorological operations was Bangladesh in 1986.

6 Agrometeorological products and advisories in RA II Countries With the exceptions of Qatar and Laos, all the countries issue agrometeorological bulletins for their users on a regular basis. These bulletins are prepared in different forms in various countries because of independent observational methods. In Uzbekistan, weekly bulletins are provided during the cultivating period to identify the best time for crop management. In Nepal, weekly bulletins just represent climate information. In Iran, weekly, monthly and seasonal bulletins include climate as well as soil and canopy information. Ten-day bulletins are regularly prepared in all countries except Qatar, Nepal, Thailand, India, and Laos include different information.

7 contd. In Bangladesh and Japan only climate information is provided, while in the other countries including Viet Nam, South Korea, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Iran, China, and Mongolia climate, soil and canopy parameters are observed and included in 10 -day bulletins. In Mongolia, in addition to the above-mentioned types of information, pasture and animal husbandry related matters are also contained in 10-day bulletins. In Bangladesh, Qatar, Japan, Kazakhstan, Thailand and Laos monthly bulletins are not prepared. While in other countries monthly bulletins with information on soil, climate and canopy are given to users. Further to weekly, 10-day and monthly bulletins, other kinds of publications such as seasonal bulletins in Bangladesh, Viet Nam, Uzbekistan and Iran are prepared for each product based on observed climate, soil and canopy parameters. In particular, in Viet Nam special reports are prepared for climate related impacts on vegetation, forest, farming and other agricultural sectors.

8 Organizational Structure

9 Integrated AAS in India Drivers of Integration Need for Crop specific District Level Advisory and Village Level Outreach.

10 TIER 1 Apex Policy Planning Body Integrated AAS in India TIER 2 National Agro Met Service HQ (Execution) TIER 3 State Agro Met Centres~28 coordination/monitoring TIER 4 AMFUs Agro Climatic Zone Level ~ 130 TIER 5 District Level Extension & Training Input management as advisory Drivers of Integration Need for Crop specific District Level Advisory and Village Level Outreach.

11 Year wise progress of Agromet Field Unit from 1991 to

12 Organisation in Iran Iran established Agrometeorological section in the civil Meteorological Organization. Working committees and groups were formed. Stations' activity programmes came under supervision of their related central section in the Meteorological Organization. An Agrometeorological section found its identity and Agrometeorological research stations were constructed, one after another, be it at a slow pace. Presently (that is 2002), 28 Agrometeorological stations are actively engaged in research work in Iran. Future plans are: 1. Increasing the number of agrometeorological stations in the major agricultural regions. 2. Improving the number of crops and fruit trees under examination in agrometeorological stations all over Iran. 3. Providing a concise agrometeorological database, including phenological and climatological data. 4. Establishing stronger scientific relations between the agrometeorologial department and international organizations.

13

14 Operational Service

15 Proposed District Level Agro-Met Advisory Service System Agro climate level agro met data IMD/NCMRWF 127 AG.MET. FIELD UNITS PREPARATION OF DISTRICT WISE MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECAST BY STATE MET CENTRE PREPARATION OF DISTRICT SPECIFIC AGRO-ADVISORIES FOR CONCERNED AGRO-CLIMATIC Feedback analysis District wise Agro met data DISTRICT AGRICULTURE OFFICES OF STATE GOVERNMENTS FARMERS (THROUGH MEDIA, EXTENSION SERVICES, PERSONAL CONTACT) DISSEMINATION OF DISTRICT LEVEL AGRO-ADVISORIES

16 Multimodel Super Ensemble Technique Generation of Multi-model Forecasts NCMRWF T-254 UK Met NCEP GFS JMA Precise & Accurate District Level Weather Forecast (DLWF) Stock-taking on accuracy of DLWF. Special session is arranged to discuss the issue. This would be a lesson learn exercise based on our experience during monsoon Forecast = w i F i +d d = Value - addition Also Discuss Methods for value addition. Additional observations Communication system Forecast verification procedure.

17 District bulletin of Sindhudurg, Maharashtra, India

18 Composite bulletin for State- Sikkim

19 National Agromet Advisory Service Bulletin

20 Agromet Products- Some examples Pesticides application prediction of pests and diseases incidence / chance of epidemic occurrence, when to apply, prepone/ postponing application based on sensitive weather elements. Fertilizer application when to apply i.e. pre-poning/ postponing application based on sensitive weather elements. Application of Irrigation when and how much to apply i.e. preponing /post-poning application based on past weather as well as weather forecast. Date of sowing Date of harvest Incidence of cold / heat waves Incidence of frost and fog Incidence of agricultural drought Contingent crop planning Selection of cultivars

21 Agrometeorological Advisory Bulletin PMD 10 days Agromet Bulletin based on actual observations and field reports (March 11-20, 2009) In Sindh Province: Atmospheric humidity may range between 30-40% where as Reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) may remain close to mm/day. As days are still smaller than nights during the current decade, therefore the photosynthesis period may remain around 8 to 10 hours following an increasing trend towards south. The intensity of solar radiations is likely to vary from 12.0 MJ/M2/day over northern plains to 16.0 MJ/M2/day in the southern parts of the country. Winds are expected to blow at a speed between 4-8 Km/hour with direction mostly from northerly to northwesterly. Rabi crops will around be in their early stages of development, therefore their water requirements are not as high as mature crops

22 National Agromet Centre Islamabad-Pakistan INTEGRATED PEST MANAGEMENT BULLETIN MEALYBUGS - Damages Surpass Economic threshold Mealybugs has been reported to be mainly responsible for ruining an estimated 3m bales of cotton in Punjab and if uncontrolled, it may destroy 5m bales of cotton during the season. Areas of Multan, Rahim Yar Khan and Bahawalnagar are under are severe attack of Mealybugs. Some useful tips are listed here for effective control of mealybugs. Mix 1 to 2 cups alcohol [Use only 70% isopropyl (rubbing) alcohol] per quart of water. Using undiluted alcohol as a spray is very risky for plants. You can also mix up an insecticidal soap spray according to the dilution on the label but substitute alcohol for half of the water required.

23 Site-specific frost warning in mountainous regions by estimating geographic potential for cold-air accumulation (Korea) Nocturnal cold air pools, which frequently form in complex terrain under anticyclonic systems, are a hazard to flowering buds of temperate fruit trees, but the spatial resolution to anticipate them exceeds the current weather forecast scale. To supplement the insufficient spatial resolution of official minimum temperature forecasts, a spatial interpolation scheme incorporating local geographic potential for cold air accumulation was developed. Empirical equations describing the potential effects of cold air accumulation and of the inversion profile on minimum temperature were combined with a conventional lapse rate-corrected inverse distance weighting interpolation scheme. This new interpolation scheme was successfully validated with an independent data set, showing a strong feasibility for development of a site-specific frost warning system for mountainous areas.

24 Monthly Drought Monitor Predictions O u r H o m e Monthly Drought Home Drought Monitor Predictions Research Education Our Division Agrometeorology Division Feedback Monitor

25 Bangladesh Provide weather forecasts for farmers on routine basis and also issue warnings for severe weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones, tornadoes, nor westers, heavy rainfall, etc.

26 Agrometeorological Observatory in Iran

27 AGROMETEOROLOGICAL ZONING IN CHINA AND DAMAGES OF THE POTATO CROP BY BACTERIAL WILT Based upon studies on strains of Pseudomonas solanacearum, collected from different potato cropping zones, two races have been observed, race 1 and race 3. It is known that race 1 has a high optimum growth temperature of C, whereas race 3 possesses a low optimum growth temperature of C. Since the highlands or hills of the southwestern mixed cropping zone are major potato producing areas in China, the rapid increase in the presence of race 3 has become a challenging problem for potato production in these areas. Although race 3 has spread into the northern single cropping zone, the most important potato producing zone in China, the bacterial wilt there is not severe so far. For the control of potato bacterial wilt, integrated management strategies are applied in China. The strategies include avoidance of water flowing in potato fields after heavy rainfall, and prevention of high moisture.

28 Forecasting Agricultural out put using Space, Agrometeorology and Land based observations (FASAL) Conventional Econometry Agro Meteorology Cropped area Land Observations Crop condition RS, Mod. Re. Temporal Remote Sensing RS, High Re. Single date Crop acreage Crop yield MULTIPLE IN-SEASON FORECAST Pre- Season Early- Season Mid- Season State Pre- Harvest State Pre- Harvest District Revised Incorporatin g damage

29 Research & Development

30 Field experiment under R & D

31 Relationship of temperature, photoperiod and sunshine duration with flowering and seed production of pansy (Viola tricolor L.) in mid hill zone of Himachal Pradesh

32 WHITE RUST PREDICTION: For the first time in India A Weather-Based Thumb Rule Was Developed to forecast incidence of white rust disease in Brassica.

33 Simulated date of Aphid onset Observed aphid onset grid 25x25 Dateofsowin DATE OF ONSET Dateofsowin Onset date grid Oct-01 7-Jan 15-Oct Jan grid Oct-01 6-Jan Date 22-Oct Jan grid Oct-01 6-Jan 29-Oct Jan grid Oct-01 6-Jan of 5-Nov Jan grid Oct-01 8-Jan 12-Nov Jan grid Oct-01 7-Jan aphid 19-Nov Jan grid Oct Jan 26-Nov Jan grid Oct-01 7-Jan onset 3-Dec Jan grid Oct-01 6-Jan grid Oct Jan grid Oct Jan Remote sensing grid 8 27-Oct-01 7-Jan grid Oct-01 8-Jan grid Oct-01 7-Jan grid Oct-01 8-Jan grid Oct Jan grid Oct Jan grid Oct-01 9-Jan grid Oct-01 9-Jan grid Oct-01 6-Jan grid Oct-01 8-Jan grid Oct Jan grid Oct-01 8-Jan grid Oct-01 7-Jan grid Oct-01 7-Jan grid Oct-01 8-Jan grid Oct-01 9-Jan grid Oct-01 7-Jan JAN. 6 JAN. 7 JAN. 8 JAN. 9 JAN. 10 JAN. 12

34 Rainfed-No Mulch Rainfed-BPM CPE 25 -No Mulch CPE 25 -BPM

35 WATERSHED MANAGEMENT: TO ACHIEVE FOOD, NUTRITION, ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY AND COMBATING DROUGHT 1. Pressure for obtaining food from limited lands 2. To reduce risk factors against natural climatic variability 3. To obtain yield certainty and creates water harvesting potential. 4. To ensures food, nutrition and environmental security 5. To check labour migration & regulate labour requirements. 6. To obtain assured return during lean period. 7. To minimizes effects of biotic stress like weed, pest and diseases. 8. To sustain soil fertility

36 R&D Models used in AAS Crop weather model DSSAT / EPIC Pest and Disease forecast Models Eg: Grapes downy mildew, Paddy blast, Groundnut Rust and Leaf spot Specific experiments for assessing the economic impact in selected crops Crop weather model DSSAT / EPIC

37 Agrometeorological Research in ICAR Agrometeorological research were initiated under ICAR in mid 60s at CAZRI, Jodhpur and IARI, New Delhi. Post Graduate teaching in Agrometeorology started at IARI, New Delhi. As per National Commission of Agriculture (1976), Departments of Agrometeorology started functioning at few State Agricultural Universities. The All India Coordinated Research Project on Agrometeorology (AICRPAM) started functioning at CRIDA, Hyderabad from Initially started with 12 cooperating centres during VII plan period (1985) and later extended to 13 more centres in VIII plan period covering all SAUs in the country. All the 25 centers of AICRPAM are issuing weather based agro advisories since Many ICAR institutes now carrying research on agro meteorological impacts on crops, livestock, horticulture etc.

38 Probabilistic weather forecasts to predict crop failure (India) The use of GLAM within a probabilistic framework is explored. General Circulation Models (GCMs) can be used to predict weather and climate months in advance by creating an ensemble of simulations. Each simulation has slightly different initial conditions and over a sufficiently long time period (two weeks and above) the results of each simulation can differ greatly. Since all of the initial conditions used are plausible, and within observational uncertainty, the ensembles contain probabilistic information.

39 Response of plant growth to surface water balance during a summer dry period in Central Eurasian steppe (Kazakhstan) In order to evaluate the impact of hydro-climatic conditions on the local surface energy balance and plant growth on seasonal and annual time scales, inter-seasonal measurements of the surface energy balance components and plant biomass were conducted since 2002 at natural grassland in north part of Kazakhstan. It was focused on the responses of evapotranspiration and above- and below-ground biomasses to soil moisture content, during the development of a summer dry period. It was found that during dry period, the assimilation of plants could not sustain above-ground alive biomass, but a major portion of the assimilation was allocated to the below-ground biomass.

40 Communication & Dissemination

41 AgroMet Advisories over Radio & TV

42 Dailies Modes Of Communication AIR TNAU Website Local Television Network

43 COMMUNICATION FORMAT OF AGROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION IN RA II Document, Video, Audio, Digital Methods of Delivery Mail, Broadcast, Phone, Facsimile, Network, Human Combined Classification Document based:- bulletins, brochures, letters, notes, others Media-based:-radio, TV-public, CATV, satellite Journal:- newspaper-general, agriculture Magazine:- monthly, quarterly others, scientific journal, others Telecommunication based:-phone, fax, mobile phone, others Computer Network based:-pc-network, Internet-web, ftp, gopher, , others Digital File based:-cd, floppy, tape, others

44 / Websites Rural hubs & call centers

45 Telecom for Agromet Print Media/AIR/TV Internet Kisan call Centre FUTURE Common Service Centre Weather channel Community Radio/FM Radio Cell Phone SMS

46 Doordarshan coverage of AAS bulletins Every Tuesday and Friday evening at 7:40 Pm

47

48 Awareness Programme

49 Creating Awareness on AAS Agromet Advisory services Print media DD Mass media E-TV All India Radio Ryhtunestam Paadipantalu Andhrajyothi Eenadu copies / month copies / month Dept. of Agril. DAATTCs/KVKs Disaster Management Group AIR & DD personnel RCYs/Model farmers Rythunestam Annadata Farmers call centre 1100 Input dealers FARMERS

50 K I S A N M E L A Sponsored by : Ministry of Earth Science. Organized by: CARD Co Organized by: The Associated Commerce and Industries of India Supported by: Govt. of U.P

51 Extension Activities Visit of students from College of Agriculture, Nagpur Information about Agro Advisory Bulletin Training to farmers on Agro meteorology at village Jatlapur

52 Earth Day Celebration Jaipur, 2008 Rajasthan

53 Economic Assessment

54 Network of stations that carried out the Economic Impact study

55 Economic benefit due to MRF based crop decision making - Coimbatore Crop : Vegetables ( ) Advise given : Present weather is conducive for Heliothis hence watch for the incidence of the pest and take control measure when the pest load crosses the ETL. Addl. cost : Nil. Additional return : Rs / ha.

56 Feedback

57 Feedback from progressive farmers HRS, Pechiparai Name: Mr.Shanmugapillai, Therroor Crop: Banana Feedback: : Leaf spot incidence reduced upto 16%, wilt incidence reduced by 17.2% stem weevil attack reduced by 54.3% yield increase : 16 % Name:Meenakshisundaram, Errumpukadu crop : coconut Feed back : Timely advise Helped in saving coconut crop from bud rot disease. Disease incidence reduced by 69.3% Name: Mr.Shenbagasekarapillai, Thoovarancadu Crop: Paddy Feedback: Control measure suggested against sheath blight incidence in the critical stage of the crop reduced the incidence by 62.5% yield increase : %

58 Future Plan on AAS in India Development of capacity building. Application of remote sensing techniques for AAS. Exploitation of rapid innovation of technologies for the benefit of agromet service. Development of crop weather models for AAS. Generation of advisories for new areas (Horticultural Crops, Livestock, Fisheries, Wasteland and Forest Fires, Post Harvest and Storage. Arrangement of special programmes for popularization of service. Provision of adequate training for the end-users. Launching of comprehensive programme on R & D activities on operational agrometeorology and economic assessment.

59 Comments and suggestions to improve Agrometeorological Products Holding of further training workshops and consideration given to short courses in Agricultural Meteorology. Exchange of data and Agricultural Meteorological knowledge between member countries and also the Inter-Regional exchange of these materials. Exchanges of experts between member countries as a necessary way to improve the knowledge of Agricultural Meteorology. Use of Meteorological forecasts and short- and long-term Agricultural Meteorological recommendations should be included in specialized bulletins for further notice. Performance of joint research between member countries to solve common problems considering Agricultural Meteorological affairs. Use of GIS and Modeling of Joint Training should be considered.

60